COGNITIVE BIAS : Climate Change Alarmists Refuse To Accept ‘The Science’ That Proves Extreme Weather Events Are NOT IncreasingPosted: March 18, 2019
“WHEN the heart rules the head,
passion takes over reason.”
– Ortega y Gasset
“IT would not be impossible to prove with sufficient repetition and a psychological understanding of the people concerned that a square is in fact a circle. They are mere words, and words can be molded until they clothe ideas and disguise.”
― Joseph Goebbels
THE widely held belief that ‘Extreme Weather’ has become worse, as a result of man-made carbon dioxide emissions, is a tribute to the success of climate change propaganda pushed relentlessly by CO2-centric politicians and compliant mainstream media.
PROMOTING Extreme Weather is specifically designed to shift public opinion about the purported seriousness of human-induced
global warming climate change, through the use of emotional imagery and dire prognostications in order for draconian and costly climate policy to be accepted and implemented with as little resistance as possible from the taxpaying public.
COGNITIVE BIAS fuelled by an era of mass hysteria, delusion, groupthink and panic has helped foster dark and far-fetched clichés of a current “climate crisis”, that is an “existential threat” which will “end civilisation by 2030”.
THANKS to the dramatic rise in personal weather recording devices – smart phones and CCTV – the sampling rate (what you see or hear directly) of Extreme Weather events, broadcast via social and mainstream media, has risen dramatically in recent years.
BUT, have actual Extreme Weather events increased in frequency or intensity? In particular, over long-term ‘climate’ scales?
THE short answer is a big fat NO! Extreme Weather events have not increased in frequency or intensity as carbon dioxide emissions have increased. In many cases the exact opposite is occurring.
THIS ‘inconvenient’ fact has been proven by empirical data and confirmed by the last two (warmist) U.N. IPCC reports on Extreme Weather: SREX (AR5) 2013 report and the latest SR15 report released August, 2018:
- SORRY ALARMISTS : The IPCC Once Again Reports Extreme Weather Events Have Not Increased | Climatism (SR15 2018)
- No steel roof required: IPCC dials back the fear of extreme weather | Climatism (SREX AR5 2013)
EXTREME WEATHER METRICS
UN IPCC : “Low confidence in the sign of drought trends since 1950 at global scale…likely to be trends in some regions of the world, including increases in drought in the Mediterranean and W Africa & decreases in droughts in central N America & NW Australia” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
NO historical trend in U.S. drought as CO₂ rises :
1934 : WHEN CO₂ WAS AT ‘SAFE’ LEVELS
IN 1934, when CO₂ was at ‘safe’ levels, severe to extreme drought covered around 80% of the entire U.S. Such conditions endured for most of the decade known as the “Dust Bowl” era :
400 PPM ‘DANGEROUS’ CO₂
CURRENT U.S. drought conditions with CO₂ at ‘dangerous’ levels (400PPM) :
CALIFORNIA’s “PERMANENT DROUGHT” UPDATE
THANKS to superstitious climate kiddies wagging school, in just 3 years, California went from 97% in drought to just 1% :
WHEN CO₂ was at ‘safe’ levels, droughts in California lasted for 200 years :
“There is low confidence due to limited evidence, however, that anthropogenic climate change has affected the frequency and the magnitude of floods.” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
ACCORDING to the EPA, the low-CO2 1930s had (by far) the worst heatwaves in US history :
WHEN CO₂ was at ‘safe levels’, Adelaide’s temperature climbed above 100°F, six days in a row.
ADELAIDE – March, 1940 :
- Friday – 24°C (74.4F)
- Saturday – 24°C (75.7F)
- Sunday – 28°C (81.7F)
- Monday – 34°C (93.5F)
- Tuesday – 31°C (88.4F)
- Wednesday – 35°C (94.9F)
- Thursday – 40°C (103.9F)
- Friday – 42°C (107.7F)
- Saturday – 43°C (110.1F)
- Sunday – 42°C (108.3F)
- Monday – 42°C (107.9F)
- Tuesday – 40°C (103.6F)
GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONES
“Numerous studies towards and beyond AR5 have reported a decreasing trend
in the global number of tropical cyclones and/or the globally accumulated cyclonic energy”– UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
“There is only low confidence regarding changes in global tropical cyclone numbers under global warming over the last four decades.” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL CYCLONES
AUSTRALIAN tropical cyclones are declining in both intensity and frequency as CO₂ rises :
GLOBAL Hurricanes are declining in both frequency and intensity as CO₂ increases :
CAT 3+ U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes (per decade) declining rapidly as CO₂ emissions rise :
FLORIDA Major Hurricane Strikes – Still No Trend :
2018 was one of the least active US tornado years on record, despite record and rising CO₂ emissions.
AS of October, a new record low tornado count was set. The cumulative total for 2018 is 759; the previous lowest number of tornadoes for this date was 761. The SPC has records extending back 65 years.
This lack of tornadic storms in recent years should also correlate with lesser severe thunderstorm activity in general in the U.S., since the conditions which produce large hail and damaging winds are generally the same as are required for tornadoes (strong instability, plentiful moisture, and wind shear). – Roy Spencer PhD
THE frequency of strong to violent tornadoes is also decreasing :
THE trend is clearly down across the board. Yet why are no mainstream journalists curious about this?
NB// IPCC SR15 “Extreme Weather” report made no mention of Tornadoes. Nor, the mainstream media!
GLOBAL WEATHER DISASTERS / LOSSES
GLOBAL weather disasters/losses as a percentage of global GDP are declining as CO₂ emissions rise.
THROUGH 7 months of 2018 weather disasters as % GDP were on record (low) pace…
NB// LOSS data does not include the two big CAT4’s that struck the US in 2018 – Florence (Sep) and Michael (Oct).
BIAS BY OMISSION
IN my opinion, the worst form of propaganda is ‘bias by omission’ – information and facts that you are ‘not’ told about, in order to keep the truth from you.
THE mainstream media has not and will not report the facts on “Extreme Weather”, as clearly laid out in the science and data above, because such facts are obviously extremely ‘inconvenient’ to their “catastrophic” man-made global warming narrative.
VITAL information central to the potential seriousness of climate change – Extreme Weather – has been purposely omitted by the mainstream media and replaced by emotions, alarmism and exaggerations in order to fit the climate-calamity narrative designed to scare you into belief and obedience.
THIS is why the
global warming climate change debate has become so dangerously deceptive and dishonest. Climate truths hidden from you and replaced with a narrative far more acceptable – Hollywood-style climate hysteria based on alarmism, increased sampling rates and overheated, CO2-centric climate models that do not accord with observed reality.
DID not see either of these instructive graphs painted on a placards at any of the kiddie climate rallies last Friday. Guess they don’t fit their ‘catastrophic’ climate narrative…
PERHAPS the climate kids would have been wise to read and learn the words of H.L. Mencken, before being forced out by their parents and teachers to act as standard bearers of new radical eco-socialism, protected by ‘innocence’ and lack of age :
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule it.” – H.L. Mencken
“The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible.” – Bertrand Russell
“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.“
– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation
“Isn’t the only hope for the planet that
the industrialized civilizations collapse?
Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?”
– Maurice Strong, founder of UNEP
WITH far greater frequency than a hurricane strike in the Floridas, the biggest names in the political and climate world gather at exotic locations around the globe to pretend that they are intent on “saving the planet”, again. Quite simply the Oscars of virtue signalling.
YET it’s (almost) set in stone that these confabs will fail their primary objective. That is, to force rich countries to quietly destroy their economies and for the poor economies, with the highest death rates, to reject energy and prosperity.
THE only resolution guaranteed by all ‘parties’ (excuse the pun) is where to hold the next, taxpayer-funded climate change junket.
MEANWHILE, all those taxpayer funded frequent flyer miles hurt your hip pocket and apparently the planet too. Or, maybe only when it’s you doing the flying…?
SCIENCE writer Viv Forbes wraps up the latest UNFCCC climate party…
Poland climatefest dumps several million tonnes of CO2 into atmosphere aiding plant growth
$500M Climate Carnival Concludes.
COP 24 just concluded in Poland. Nearly 23,000 climate saviours attended this 24th annual climate carnival.
Every year, plane-loads of concerned busybodies fly to some interesting new location to spend tax dollars on a well-fed 12 day holiday. They concoct plans to ration and tax the energy used by real workers, farmers and families back home.
Few delegates arrived by bicycle or solar-powered plane – a fleet of at least 100 commercial, private and charter aircraft brought them at a cost estimated at US$57M. When the costs of hotels, ground transport, food, entertainment, air conditioning and office services are added, the bill is likely to top $500 M.
Australian taxpayers supported 46 junketeers. Now these Chicken Littles are back home spreading climate scare stories and lecturing locals to not overspend on Christmas presents.
There is a bright side – all that carbon dioxide emitted by planes, cars, buses, heaters, stoves, beer, champagne and Poland’s coal-fired power stations will help global plant growth.
DOING THE NUMBERS :
Cultural Communists Know How to Spend Your Money to Fight Climate Change
One of the largest conferences of the year just wrapped up this past weekend in Katowice, Poland. And it was on everyone’s favorite subject, climate change.
Yes, this is the annual conference where tens of thousands of delegates fly into a foreign town. On your tax dollars. To iron out a plan for the future of the planet.
It’s called the United Nations Climate Change Conference. And this years’ went under the short name of COP24 (Conference of the Parties – 24th edition).
And it was the second biggest one since the monster Paris Climate Change conference back in December 2015 (COP21 for those keeping count).
According to this official attendance list, there were 22,700 delegates from 197 countries there.
This conference was not a weekend or even a week long.
It was hosted for 12 whole days.
But first, all these people had to get to the COP24 Climate Change conference. And unfortunately, zero-emission transit was not available to get them all to Katowice.
There are no bike lanes crossing the Atlantic Ocean or the Mediterranean Sea.
If you think trillions of dollars over dozens and dozens of years is impossible for parties to fight climate change with their vision…
Here’s how Cultural Communists Spent Nearly Half of Billion Dollars in 12 days:
These attendees took commercial, charter and private planes to get to Katowice International Airport just north of the city.
For all their green agendas, they flew the big, bulky, carbon-spewing and nature polluting airplanes.
Without every receipt, it’s not easy to pinpoint how much various flight types cost. But you can bet even those travelling on commercial aircraft were not flying with the common folk.
Let’s assume $2,500 per person to fly to and from Katowice, Poland.
Cost of Flights = 22,700 x $2,500 = $57 million dollars.
Thinking that the delegates like to travel together, let’s be conservative and say they all flew commercial on a Boeing 747 in groups of 227. Unlikely, but it makes our napkin calculation simple.
This would require 100 planes flying in and flying out…
According to Blue Sky Model, 1 mile of flight produces about 53 pounds of carbon dioxide for the average plane.
Now sticking with simplicity, let’s assume the average flight was just about the distance between New York City and Katowice – 4,283 miles. In reality, people flew from as far away as Auckland, New Zealand.
The total amount of carbon emitted = 100 planes x 4,283 miles x 53 pounds per mile x 2 trips = at least 45 million pounds of evil, harmful polluting carbon dioxide into the air.
Do as the cultural communists say, I guess. Not as they do.
And I’m being optimistic.
For reference, WIRED Magazine estimates that all the planes that flew to the Paris climate talks released about 575 million pounds of CO2.
Now let’s correctly assume that politicians, dignitaries and their entourages didn’t stay in Holiday Inn’s or Best Westerns like the working class.
Nor would they opt for AirBnB type services for their fellow taxpayers…
And since this conference would be among the top destinations in the world at this climate change time of year, hoteliers would have increased their nightly room prices. It’s Opportunism 101.
So let’s allow $500 per night for hotels or private flats. Katowice and the surrounding areas aren’t exactly Paris. So things are a bit more affordable.
Cost of hotels = 27,700 people x 12 nights x US $500 = $166 million dollars
Delegates then had to drive the roughly 34 kilometers (21 miles) to the city core.
Heaven forbid if these people all took the transit system. How could they possible hold a dignified image taking the subway or public buses?
So they likely hired private cars and limousines.
The rates for these vehicles goes anywhere from $500 – $1,000 per day. Let’s assume some attendees followed their agendas and carpooled, thus requiring only 20,000 cars.
Cost of Transportation = 20,000 cars x $750 per day x 12 days = $180 million dollars
Let’s not forget that people need to eat.
And when in Poland, you can’t be eating Subway or McDonalds. How can you possibly pair a fine Bordeaux with a Big Mac?
So we have to factor in meals and entertainment.
Most attendees will have gotten a per diem for their travels. We can safely assume these costs to be anywhere from $100 – $500 per day depending on their stature.
Cost of food = 27,700 x $250 per diem x 12 days = $83 million dollars
And what about the workers who put it all together?
The average wage in Poland is just shy of $1,170 per month.
Data on workers hasn’t been released yet. But at the Paris conference 3 years ago, there were 3,000 workers hired directly for the conference and about 11,000 police and military to keep the place secure.
Let’s assume the same amount of security and workers were used in Poland.
And considering security forces are not cheap, let’s just assume they all made double the average wage…
Cost of personnel = 14,000 x $1,170 x 2 x ½ month’s work = $16.3 million dollars
Let’s sum it all up…
There is a good chance I have been too conservative and underestimated some of the costs.
The cost of saving the future world for just a couple weeks was half a billion dollars. But you’ll be happy to know that the official meal plan for attendees had some options for a low emission footprint, as you can see below.
Until next year’s Climate Change conference in Chile…
Wait, did I not mention the pre-conference in Costa Rica?
ONE wonders if any of the 22,771 taxpayer funded climate crusaders actually know what their favourite buzz-word “sustainability” actually entails?
HERE’s a crash course in case they have forgotten:
SEE also :
- DRACONIAN UN CLIMATE AGENDA EXPOSED : ‘Global Warming Fears Are A Tool For Political and Economic Change…It Has Nothing To Do With The Actual Climate’ | Climatism
- UN Carbon Regime Would Devastate Humanity And The Environment | Climatism
Snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event.”
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
Dr David Viner – Senior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)
“That snow outside is what
global warming looks like.”
George Monbiot – The Guardian
IN 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) predicted that
global warming climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010. These people, it was said, would flee a range of disasters including sea level rise, increases in the numbers and severity of hurricanes, and disruption to food production.
SINCE then, not a single “climate refugee” has been found. In fact, the UN has since ‘disappeared’ the official climate refugee map from their UNEP website:
ORIGINAL page cached :
IT turns out that the disasters haven’t occurred and the population has been increasing in the areas targeted by the UN. Ooops!
CLIMATE REFUGEE FOUND?
COULD Kelly Bruton of St. John’s, Newfoundland be the U.N’s first official documented “climate refugee”?
SHE could prove them right, be the UN’s new climate pin-up garl! Even if her considered move is as a result of cold extremes, rather than from a ‘hot’ one. After all, it’s called “climate change” right? So, it needn’t matter which way the temp swings to qualify as a U.N. “climate refugee” …
East Coast woman considers ‘moving away’ after icy fall
Wednesday, December 12, 2018, 10:02 AM –As Kelly Bruton drives through St. John’s on the way to the hospital, she can’t help but cringe at the snow-covered sidewalks she passes along the way.
Almost three years ago, Bruton slipped and fell on an icy sidewalk in the downtown area. The pins that held her ankle together are coming out today.
“Just like Frankenstein,” Bruton said, rubbing her thumb over the metal that is protruding from her ankle bone.
Bruton said although she is feeling better, it’s been a hard couple of years. She had to take time off of work to heal. Then she faced anxiety for the next few winters while walking outside.
When she looks at the sidewalks after the city’s recent snowfall, she gets nervous for others.
“I’ve thought about moving away because I am not sure how things are going to go here in the winter times.… I like to be outside, so if you can’t walk to get your groceries, what are you going to do?”
Bruton continues to advocate for safer sidewalks on the Facebook page she created, called Winter Sidewalks in St. John’s, Newfoundland. She has also altered her daily routine, which includes taking a closer look at the weather and wearing spikes on her boots.
MEANWHILE, the snow that was to become “a very rare and exciting event” that your
“children just aren’t going to know what (snow) is” has just set a North American record for November coverage :
FAKE NEWS MEDIA
The CO2-centric, mainstream media insists that, “that snow outside is what global warming looks like.” :
BACK IN REALITY LAND
VETERAN meteorologist Barry Burbank explains the fake news furphy behind Moonbat and other warming alarmists claims that recent record snowfall is caused by ‘Global Warming’ :
“Interestingly, some scientists have stated that increasing snow is consistent with climate change because warmer air holds more moisture, more water vapor and this can result in more storms with heavy precipitation. The trick, of course, is having sufficient cold air to produce that snow. But note that 93% of the years with more than 60″ of snow in Boston were colder than average years. The reality is cooling, not warming, increases snowfall.”
NASA satellites and HadCRUT temperature data sets confirm recent rapid global cooling :
NASA MSU Satellite Data :
GLOBAL Temperature Drops By 0.4°C In Three Years (HadCRUT) :
“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.“
– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation
“Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?” – Maurice Strong, founder of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
“Current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the affluent middle class – involving high meat intake, use of fossil fuels, appliances, air-conditioning, and suburban housing – are not sustainable.” – Maurice Strong, Secretary General of the UN’s Earth Summit, 1992.
IT’s time for sensible, democratic governments to push back and vigorously question the motives of unelected, bureaucratic behemoths at the UN,
stealing corralling global taxpayer money to fund their ruinous globalist, Leftist agendas that have absolutely nothing to with “saving the planet” or helping the environment.
QUEENSLAND One Nation leader, Steve Dickson conveying what most Australian’s are feeling, in stark contrast to the major ruling parties who are both pandering to the UN climate gods …
A MUST read opinion piece on the corrupt United Nations by Maurice Newman, former head of Deutsche Bank, the ABC and ASX…
“Australians are at that point, sick of being lectured to by UN “special rapporteurs”. They are crying out for leaders to stare down faceless bureaucrats in Geneva. They are angry at meaningless gestures and slavish obedience to pointless emissions targets that are crippling our industry and causing personal hardships.“
Corrupted UN must never be allowed to lecture us
If the leaders of some nation states were citizens living in a civilised society, they would be in jail for perpetrating, or being accessories to, murder, torture, theft and corruption.
Yet they and their chosen representatives shamelessly take their place in the hallowed chamber of the UN General Assembly as arbiters of how the rest of the world should behave.
Take the Human Rights Council, which counts among its members the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where Joseph Kabila’s unconstitutional rule features massacres and gender-based violence among a long list of atrocities; and Venezuela, where President Nicolas Maduro strangles political opposition by carrying out hundreds of arbitrary killings under the guise of fighting crime.
There’s The Philippines, whose President Rodrigo Duterte condones policies that result in extrajudicial killings of suspected drug dealers; and Cuba, where President Miguel Diaz-Canel, in true Castro style, allows beatings, public shaming and termination of employment to quell political opposition. China’s President-for-life Xi Jinping oversees the holding of about a million Muslim Uighurs, including women and children, in re-education camps.
Yet this year Australia celebrated its membership of the UNHRC, while the US commendably withdrew, saying the council “has provided cover, not condemnation, for the world’s most inhumane regimes”.
Australia is also a member of the Economic and Social Council which, “to find effective approaches to ending poverty”, believes “those experiencing it must have a seat at the table’’. And so they do. The leaders of Algeria, Chad, El Salvador, South Africa, Sudan, Togo and Venezuela, to name a few, all believe in wealth redistribution. They practise authoritarian central planning and asset confiscation.
Not too many champions of competition and market economics there. Australia acts as a good global citizen, lending support for “collective action” that rewards bad behaviour.
Unsurprisingly, the UN’s Ecosoc readily accepts that “climate change and environmental crises are the result of vastly unequal levels of development in the last few centuries. The countries which are now rich became so by ignoring the consequences for the environment which now threaten the entire planet.” Ecosec reminds us of Agenda 21, put to the UN’s 1992 Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit, which recognises that the burden of climate change (whatever that may be) “falls most heavily on poor countries”.
Masterminded by Canadian socialist/Marxist and multimillionaire Maurice Strong and held under the auspices of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Rio summit was the largest political gathering in history. Strong believed the UN should become a world government with “environmentalism” the key driver. He believed: “The concept of national sovereignty … will yield only slowly and reluctantly to the new imperatives of global environmental co-operation. It is simply not feasible for sovereignty to be exercised unilaterally by individual nation states, however powerful.”
Journalist and long-time UN expert Claudia Rosett observes Strong understood how the “UN’s bureaucratic culture of secrecy, its diplomatic immunities, and its global reach, lends itself to manipulation by a small circle of those who best know its back corridors”.
Strong exploited this culture to ensure climate change became so embedded in global politics that few Western politicians would have the courage to challenge it, no matter how exaggerated its claims, or the financial cost. And so it has proved. His successor and fellow Marxist, Christiana Figueres, led the Paris climate conference that captured Australia.
Enter US President Donald J. Trump. In his second address to the UN General Assembly in September, Trump said: “America is governed by Americans. We reject the ideology of globalism and accept the doctrine of patriotism.”
He said the UN Human Rights Council had become a “grave embarrassment” and that countries admitted to the WTO “violate every single principle on which the organisation is based”. He said: “We will not allow our workers to be victimised, our companies to be cheated, and our wealth to be plundered and transferred.” He withdrew from the Paris climate agreement, calling it a “massive redistribution of United States’ wealth to other countries”.
In the 26 years since the Rio summit, no world leader has posed such a comprehensive threat to UN hegemony. Not only does Trump reflect disillusionment with globalism at home, he also taps into growing disenchantment with supranational governments in many places around the world, particularly in Europe.
Brexit was the first example. Italy’s defiance in the face of Europe’s rejection of its draft budget is the latest. While acknowledging Italy violates EU rules, Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio says: “This is the first Italian budget that the EU doesn’t like. I am not surprised. This is the first Italian budget that was written in Rome and not in Brussels.” A recent poll in Poland found a third of the country now backs an EU exit.
It is clear serious cracks in the relationship between the people and governing bodies like the UN and the EU are emerging. People may not fully understand the way remote, supranational governments work, but they can recognise authority which is harmful and lacking in integrity.
Australians are at that point, sick of being lectured to by UN “special rapporteurs”. They are crying out for leaders to stare down faceless bureaucrats in Geneva. They are angry at meaningless gestures and slavish obedience to pointless emissions targets that are crippling our industry and causing personal hardships.
The latest Australian Institute of Company Directors survey confirms the desperation corporate leaders feel over the government’s inept response to climate change, the No 1 issue they want addressed.
The UN and agencies like the IMF have been exposed as hypocritical emperors without clothes. If this is a preview of world government, we face a grim future.
MAURICE NEWMAN related :
- Maurice Newman | Search Results | Climatism
- Shock news : The UN’s Real Agenda Is A New World Order Under Its Control | Climatism