Posted: December 3, 2018 | Author: Jamie Spry | Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Alarmism uncovered, Climate Change, Climate History, Climatism, COP24, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Global Cooling, Global Temperature, Global Warming, Medieval Warm Period, Pal-Review, Science, State Of The Climate | Tags: Climate Change, Climate history, Climatism, COP24, global cooling, Global Temperature, Global Warming, Grand Solar Minimum, Katowice, Medieval Warm Period, nature, Peer Review, Peer review study, science, Science and Environment, UN IPCC, UNFCCC |
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The Medieval Warm Period – A Global Phenomenon
“No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world.”
– Christine Stewart,
fmr Canadian Minister of the Environment
“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.“
– Timothy Wirth,
President UN Foundation
***
WHEN prosecuting the case for “unprecedented” man-made Global Warming, the first thing you need to make sure of is that no recent climate era was as warm or warmer than the present, even if that means having to rewrite the past to fit your narrative.
THE Medieval Warm Period, also known as the Medieval Climate Optimum (due to conditions favoured for crops, life and civilisation to thrive) existed a short time ago in the climate record, from c. 950 to c. 1250., and has remained a thorn in the side, ever since, for today’s Global Warming Climate Change activist movement.
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IN the 1990 IPCC report, the Medieval Warm Period was much warmer than the late 19th century:
www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf
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THE IPCC’s 1990 report dives deeper into the reality of the Medieval Warm Period and provides an insight into the cause of these warming periods:
“This period of widespread warmth is notable in that there is no evidence that it was accompanied by an increase of greenhouse gases.”
IPCC WG1 Report 1990 (p202)
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BY the 2001 IPCC report, the Medieval Warm period disappeared and became much cooler than the late 20th century:
Mikey Mann Hockeystick
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BY pure coincidence, in the year 1995 the IPCC made a decision to make the Medieval Warm Period disappear:
David Deming Senate Testimony
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YOUTUBE clip of Dr David Deming’s US Senate testimony on the “disappearance” of the Medieval Warm Period (see 01m:50s) :
Video of Dr David Deming’s statement to the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment & Public Works on December 6, 2006. Dr Deming reveals that in 1995 a leading scientist emailed him saying “We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period”. A few years later, Michael Mann and the IPCC did just that by publishing the now throughly discredited hockey stick graph.
IN case you missed it…
“I had another interesting experience around the time my paper in Science was published. I received an astonishing email from a major researcher in the area of climate change. He said, “We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period.””
The existence of the MWP had been recognized in the scientific literature for decades. But now it was a major embarrassment to those maintaining that the 20th century warming was truly anomalous. It had to be “gotten rid of.””
Statement of Dr. David Deming | U.S. Senate Committee
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THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD : GLOBAL and PEER REVIEWED
ACCORDING to multiple lines of “peer-reviewed science”, the Medieval Warm Period was indeed ‘global’ and was as warm, if not warmer than today.
CLICK here for excellent interactive map of clickable peer-reviewed MWP studies in both North and Southern Hemispheres :
THE Medieval Warm Period – A Global Phenomenon
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THE ‘INCONVENIENT’ PAST
THERE is absolutely nothing unusual about today’s so-called Global Warming aka Climate Change.
LOOK at how many periods of warmth our planet has enjoyed during the past 10,000 years alone.
CIVILISATIONS flourished during those warm periods (“climate optimums”), and collapsed when they ended.
DID humans cause the Minoan warm period of about 3,300 years ago?
DID humans cause the Roman warm period of about 2,100 years ago?
DID humans cause the Medieval warm period of about 1,000 years ago?
WHAT about all of those other warm periods? Should we blame Fred Flintstone, perhaps?
via @BigJoeBastardi | Twitter
IF the downward trend in temperature of the past 3,300 years continues, we could be in a heap of trouble. While our leaders keep on wringing their collective hands over global warming, we could be blindsided by an ice age.
ALL this talk about human-caused global warming is sheer nonsense, if not downright fraud. The record shows that both periods of warmth – and periods of cold – hit our planet with almost consistent regularity.
* Read the rest of this entry »
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Posted: April 13, 2018 | Author: Jamie Spry | Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Carbon Dioxide, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Failed Climate Models, Sea Level Rise | Tags: Alarmism Exposed, carbon dioxide emissions, Climate Change, Climate Change Alarmism, climate models, Climate science, CO2, failed climate models, Global Warming, IPCC, Peer Review, Peer review study, science, sea level rise |
“It is becoming more and more apparent that sea levels rise and fall without any obvious connection to CO2 concentrations.”
Watts Up With That?
Holocene Sea Levels were 2 Meters Higher
1. Are Modern ‘Anthropogenic’ Sea Levels Rising At An Unprecedented Rate? No.
Despite the surge in CO2 concentrations since 1900, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that global sea levels only rose by an average of 1.7 mm/yr during the entire 1901-2010 period, which is a rate of just 0.17 of a meter per century.
During the 1958 to 2014 period, when CO2 emissions rose dramatically, a recent analysis revealed that the rate of sea level rise slowed to between 1.3 mm/yr to 1.5 mm/yr, or just 0.14 of a meter per century.
Frederiske et al.,2018 “Anthropogenic” Global Sea Level Rise Rate (1958-2014): +0.14 of a meter per century
“For the first time, it is shown that for most basins the reconstructed sea level trend and acceleration can be explained by the sum of…
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Posted: February 27, 2018 | Author: Jamie Spry | Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Climatism, Consensus, Sceptics, Settled Science | Tags: climate, Climate Change, Climate science, Consensus, Cullen, Global Warming, groupthink, john cook, Katharine Hayhoe, Michael Mann, Peer review study, Scam, Science and Environment, Scientific consensus, Settled Science |
“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.”
.
IN order to avoid important free and open debate, on a system so chaotic as our climate, CAGW alarmists instinctively claim that the “science is settled” based on a purported “97% consensus” of all scientists.
.
ANY person or body that holds a dissenting view or presents contradictory evidence is immediately labelled a climate ‘denier’ – likened to those who claim the holocaust never occurred. A classic ad-hominem attack designed to smear and silence those who refuse to comply with the preferred wisdom of the day.
.
BOGUS 97% surveys have been concocted over the years claiming a scientific ‘consensus’ exists. However, consensus doesn’t decide science, facts do.
.
THE late Michael Crichton on the folly of a so-called ‘consensus’ in science…
“There is no such thing as consensus science. If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus. Period.”
•
“Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had.”
•
“I would remind you to notice where the claim of consensus is invoked. Consensus is invoked only in situations where the science is not solid enough. Nobody says the consensus of scientists agrees that E=mc2. Nobody says the consensus is that the sun is 93 million miles away. It would never occur to anyone to speak that way.”
Pierre L. Gosselin’s masterful resource NoTricksZone has unearthed 97 new papers in 2018 alone that further discredit the bogus “97% consensus” meme…
A Teetering Consensus: 97 New Papers Amassed In 2018 Support A Skeptical Position On Climate Alarm
By Kenneth Richard on 26. February 2018
The Science Unsettles
Image Source: Robertson and Chilingar, 2017
In just the first 8 weeks of 2018, 97 scientific papers have been published that cast doubt on the position that anthropogenic CO2 emissions function as the climate’s fundamental control knob…or that otherwise serve to question the efficacy of climate models or the related “consensus” positions commonly endorsed by policymakers and mainstream media sources.
These 97 new papers affirm the position that there are significant limitations and uncertainties inherent in our understanding of climate and climate changes, emphasizing that climate science is not settled.
More specifically, the papers in this compilation support these four main skeptical positions — categorized here as N(1) – N(4) — which question climate alarm.
N(1) Natural mechanisms play well more than a negligible role (as claimed by the IPCC) in the net changes in the climate system, which includes temperature variations, precipitation patterns, weather events, etc., and the influence of increased CO2 concentrations on climatic changes are less pronounced than currently imagined.
N(2) The warming/sea levels/glacier and sea ice retreat/hurricane and drought intensities…experienced during the modern era are neither unprecedented or remarkable, nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability.
N(3) The computer climate models are not reliable or consistently accurate, and projections of future climate states are little more than speculation as the uncertainty and error ranges are enormous in a non-linear climate system.
N(4) Current emissions-mitigation policies, especially related to the advocacy for renewables, are often ineffective and even harmful to the environment, whereas elevated CO2 and a warmer climate provide unheralded benefits to the biosphere (i.e., a greener planet and enhanced crop yields).
In sharp contrast to the above, the corresponding “consensus” positions that these papers do not support are:
A(1) Close to or over 100% (110%) of the warming since 1950 has been caused by increases in anthropogenic CO2 emissions, leaving natural attribution at something close to 0%.
RealClimate.org: “The best estimate of the warming due to anthropogenic forcings (ANT) is the orange bar (noting the 1𝛔 uncertainties). Reading off the graph, it is 0.7±0.2ºC (5-95%) with the observed warming 0.65±0.06 (5-95%). The attribution then follows as having a mean of ~110%, with a 5-95% range of 80–130%. This easily justifies the IPCC claims of having a mean near 100%, and a very low likelihood of the attribution being less than 50% (p < 0.0001!).”
A(2) Modern warming, glacier and sea ice recession, sea level rise, drought and hurricane intensities…are all occurring at unprecedentedly high and rapid rates, and the effects are globally synchronous (not just regional)…and thus dangerous consequences to the global biosphere and human civilizations loom in the near future as a consequence of anthropogenic influences.
A(3) The climate models are reliable and accurate, and the scientific understanding of the effects of both natural forcing factors (solar activity, clouds, water vapor, etc.) and CO2 concentration changes on climate is “settled enough“, which means that “the time for debate has ended“.
A(4) The proposed solutions to mitigate the dangerous consequences described in N(4) – namely, wind and solar expansion – are safe, effective, and environmentally-friendly.
To reiterate, the 97 papers compiled in 2018 thus far support the N(1)-N(4) positions, and they undermine or at least do not support the “consensus” A(1)-A(4) positions. The papers do not do more than that. Expectations that these papers should do more than support skeptical positions and undermine “consensus” positions to “count” are deemed unreasonable in this context.
Below are the two links to the list of 97 papers amassed as of 26 February, 2018, as well as the guideline for the lists’ categorization. Also included are 24 sample papers included on the list, about 1/4th of the total.
Skeptic Papers 2018 (1)
Skeptic Papers 2018 (2)
(Parts 2 and 3 are on the same page).
Part 1. Natural Climate Change Observation, Reconstruction
Warming Since Mid/Late 20th Century? (17)
A Warmer Past: Non-Hockey Stick Reconstructions (9)
Lack Of Anthropogenic/CO2 Signal In Sea Level Rise (3)
Sea Levels 1-3 Meters Higher 4,000-7,000 Years Ago (4)
A Model-Defying Cryosphere, Polar Ice (7)
Part 2. Natural Mechanisms Of Weather, Climate Change
Solar Influence On Climate (21)
ENSO, NAO, AMO, PDO Climate Influence (11)
Modern Climate In Phase With Natural Variability (3)
The CO2 Greenhouse Effect – Climate Driver? (2)
Part 3. Unsettled Science, Failed Climate Modeling
Climate Model Unreliability/Biases/Errors and the Pause (6)
Failing Renewable Energy, Climate Policies (2)
Elevated CO2 Greens Planet, Produces Higher Crop Yields (2)
Warming Beneficial, Does Not Harm Humans, Wildlife (2)
No Increasing Trends In Intense Hurricanes (2)
No Increasing Trends In Drought/Flood Frequency, Severity (1)
Miscellaneous (5)
Read full report here…
A Teetering Consensus: 97 New Papers Amassed In 2018 Support A Skeptical Position On Climate Alarm | NoTricksZone
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PLEASE Tip The Climatism Jar To Help Keep The Good Fight Alive!
(Still waiting for that “big oil” cheque to arrive in the mail!)
Click this link for brief info…TQ
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Climatism hot links :
- CLIMATE CHANGE – The Most Massive Scientific Fraud In Human History | Climatism
- WESTERN Nations, Driven By A Global Agenda Of Climate Alarmism, Are Destroying Their Industries With Carbon Taxes And Promotion Of Expensive, Intermittent Green Energy | Climatism
- THE Greatest Threat To The Environment Is Not Affluence, It’s Poverty | Climatism
Climate Science related :
- 100% Of Climate Models Prove that 97% of Climate Scientists Were Wrong! | Climatism
- THE Great Global Warming “Pause” | Climatism
- THE Climate Change Farce Explained By Two Expert “Scientists” | Climatism
- WORLD Leading Authority : Climate and Sea Level Science Is A “Quasi Religion” Hijacked By An Activist Agenda | Climatism
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Posted: February 10, 2018 | Author: Jamie Spry | Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Alarmism uncovered, Alarmist media, Alarmist Predictions, Climate science, Climatism, Dud predictions, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Fake News, Govt Climate Agenda, Green Agenda, Pacific Island Nations, Sceptics, Sea Level Rise, UN, UNEP | Tags: Activist Media, Climate alarmism, Climate Change, Climate science, Dud Predictions, Fake News, nature journal, Peer review study, sceptics, science, Science and Environment, sea level rise, Tuvalu, UN, UNEP, UNFCCC |
“WE live in constant fear of the adverse impacts of climate change. For a coral atoll nation, sea level rise and more severe weather events loom as a growing threat to our entire population. The threat is real and serious, and is of no difference to a slow and insidious form of terrorism against us.“
– Saufatu Sopoanga, fmr Prime Minister of Tuvalu, at the 58th Session of the United Nations General Assembly New York, 24th September 2003
THE Pacific island nation of Tuvalu has long been cited as proof that rising seas caused by man-made climate change are going to drown Pacific and Indian island atolls.
THE climate-obsessed fake news media has gleefully pawned the emotional link between climate change and ‘sinking’ tropical islands for eons … “The tiny pacific island nation of Tuvalu looks set to become a victim of global warming, with the entire country predicted to be washed away in 50 years.” (BBC 2002)
TUVALU’s plight even formed part of the basis for arguably the most hysterical fake news claim in the history of climate alarmism: the UN’s prediction that by the end of 2010, climate change would have created “50 million environmental refugees”!
CLIMATISM, along with the climate sceptic “denier” community have been citing real science, data and observations that have consistently contradicted the fashionable claims of “sinking islands” for years, only to be given the standard respect from the lame-stream activist media…crickets.
WHAT has now become even more apparent is that the purported plight of Pacific and Indian Ocean Island nations like Kiribati, Tuvalu, Seychelles and the Maldives serve merely as emotional arguments to promote the global climate agenda, whilst cash-strapped and over-populated island nations use the associated climate guilt as a vehicle to pursue compensation to be paid by Western nations. Economic outcomes in line with the United Nation’s wealth redistribution agenda.
DELLERS with a great summary of the latest “scientific” study out of Nature journal that has sent another alarmist claim to the propaganda graveyard…
Delingpole: ‘Sinking’ Pacific Island Actually Getting Bigger Shock
James Delingpole // Brietbart
Tuvalu – the Pacific island group often cited by climate alarmists as the nation most immediately at risk from rising sea levels caused by ‘global warming’ – is not sinking after all.
In fact it’s getting bigger, scientists now admit.
A University of Auckland study examined changes in the geography of Tuvalu’s nine atolls and 101 reef islands between 1971 and 2014, using aerial photographs and satellite imagery.
It found eight of the atolls and almost three-quarters of the islands grew during the study period, lifting Tuvalu’s total land area by 2.9 percent, even though sea levels in the country rose at twice the global average.
Co-author Paul Kench said the research, published Friday in the journal Nature Communications, challenged the assumption that low-lying island nations would be swamped as the sea rose.
“We tend to think of Pacific atolls as static landforms that will simply be inundated as sea levels rise, but there is growing evidence these islands are geologically dynamic and are constantly changing,” he said.
“The study findings may seem counter-intuitive, given that (the) sea level has been rising in the region over the past half century, but the dominant mode of change over that time on Tuvalu has been expansion, not erosion.”
If only they’d done their study a bit earlier they could have saved a lot of alarmists a lot of worry.
As recently as last year, anxious wonks produced a paper for the World Bank arguing that the situation in Tuvalu (pop. 11,000) and nearby Kiribati (pop.107,000) was so dire that Australia and New Zealand should open their doors to the fleeing refugees.
According to the paper:
“The worsening impacts of climate change have provided a new moral imperative for providing open access.”
In 2007, Grist went so far as to cite Tuvalu of one of climate change’s most “tragic” victims.
‘Climate Change in Tuvalu’ even has its own Wikipedia page. It records possibly Tuvalu’s greatest moment of glory on the international stage when it seized the opportunity at the 2009 Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen to grandstand about its terrible plight.
In December 2009 the islands stalled talks at United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, fearing some other developing countries were not committing fully to binding deals on a reduction in carbon emission, their chief negotiator stated “Tuvalu is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, and our future rests on the outcome of this meeting.”[57] When the conference failed to reach a binding, meaningful agreement, Tuvalu’s representative Ian Fry said, “It looks like we are being offered 30 pieces of silver to betray our people and our future… Our future is not for sale. I regret to inform you that Tuvalu cannot accept this document.”[58]
Fry’s speech to the conference was a highly impassioned plea for countries around the world to address the issues of man-made global warming resulting in climate change. The five-minute speech addressed the dangers of rising sea levels to Tuvalu and the world. In his speech Fry claimed man-made global warming to be currently “the greatest threat to humanity”, and ended with an emotional “the fate of my country rests in your hands”.[59]
Tuvalu’s plight also formed part of the basis for arguably the most hysterical fake news claim in the history of climate alarmism: the UN’s prediction that by the end of 2010, climate change would have created “50 million environmental refugees”.
The UN has since removed the claim from most of its websites. Happily, it can still be glimpsed in the Guardian archives:
Rising sea levels, desertification and shrinking freshwater supplies will create up to 50 million environmental refugees by the end of the decade, experts warn today. Janos Bogardi, director of the Institute for Environment and Human Security at the United Nations University in Bonn, said creeping environmental deterioration already displaced up to 10 million people a year, and the situation would get worse.
“There are well-founded fears that the number of people fleeing untenable environmental conditions may grow exponentially as the world experiences the effects of climate change,” Dr Bogardi said. “This new category of refugee needs to find a place in international agreements. We need to better anticipate support requirements, similar to those of people fleeing other unviable situations.”
In reality, the total number of environmental refugees fleeing climate change so far around the world is close to zero.
But that hasn’t stopped a few chancers from trying it on…
Seventeen people from the Pacific – including 11 from Tuvalu and five from Kiribati – have already made refugee claims in New Zealand, citing climate change as part of their basis of claim. None have been successful (four have yet to be determined and 13 have been rejected) because the refugees convention does not recognise climate change as grounds for protection.
To climate skeptics, the fact that Tuvalu is not drowning will come as no surprise whatsoever.
Their favorite sea levels expert – Nils-Axel Mörner – has written numerous papers on the subject.
In 2012, he wrote:
In Tuvalu, the President continues to claim that they are in the process of being flooded. Yet, the tide-gauge data provide clear indication of a stability over the last 30 years.
Delingpole: ‘Sinking’ Pacific Island Actually Getting Bigger Shock | Brietbart
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‘Sinking Island’ Climate Change Propaganda related :
- Climate Change Sea Level Rise Extortion | Climatism
- 44th Pacific “Sinking Islands” Extortion Forum | Climatism
- Connect The Dots On Climate Change … Alarmism | Climatism
- KIRIBATI Climate Plan: More Resorts, More Tourists | Climatism
- You’d Believe In Global Warming, Too, If Australia’s Prime Minister Turnbull Gave You $300 Million. UPDATED: Islands Growing, Not Sinking | Climatism
- No one leaving this “sinking” island. So what gives? | Climatism
Related :
- Pacific islands growing, not sinking
- Shape-shifting islands defy sea-level rise
- Look at this other drowning island, the Global Mail writer insisted. So I did…
- Theories Fail To Take Atoll
- U.N. OFFICIAL ADMITS: WE REDISTRIBUTE WORLD’S WEALTH BY CLIMATE POLICY
- Connect The Dots On Climate Change … Alarmism | Climatism
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Posted: September 12, 2017 | Author: Jamie Spry | Filed under: Antarctic, Antarctica, Arctic, Carbon Dioxide, Climate models, Climate science, Climatism, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Failed Climate Models, Glaciers, Global Cooling, IPCC, Oceans, Science | Tags: Antarctica, Climate Change, Climate science, Failed CMIP5 Models, Glacier, global cooling, Hottest Year Ever, Natural Climate Change, nature, North Atlantic Ocean, Pacific Ocean, Peer review study, science, Southern Ocean |
“Contrary to expectations, climate scientists continue to report that large regions of the Earth have not been warming in recent decades.”
INTERESTING to see how the warmist community will spin the “science” from these latest inconvenient findings that contradict IPCC climate model predictions and the endless “Hottest Year Evah“ PR claims.
NO doubt, Climate Crisis Inc … and the UN IPCC won’t go near it. And don’t expect to see empirical evidence of globally cooling oceans and thickening glaciers gleefully reported on CNN, BBC or ABC Australia. Any climate news that doesn’t fit the human-caused warming narrative is expressly ignored by the #FakeNews mainstream media, using their favoured and most effective propaganda weapon – confirmation bias.
MORE from Kenneth Richard via Pierre Gosselin’s excellent site NoTricksZone :
12 New Papers: North Atlantic, Pacific, And Southern Oceans Are Cooling As Glaciers Thicken, Gain Mass
By Kenneth Richard on 11. September 2017
Graph Source Duchez et al., 2016
Contrary to expectations, climate scientists continue to report that large regions of the Earth have not been warming in recent decades.
According to Dieng et al. (2017), for example, the global oceans underwent a slowdown, a pause, or even a slight cooling trend during 2003 to 2013. This undermines expectations from climate models which presume the increase in radiative forcing from human CO2 emissions should substantially increase ocean temperatures.
The authors indicate that the recent trends in ocean temperatures “may just reflect a 60-year natural cycle“, the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and not follow radiative forcing trends.
Dieng et al., 2017 We investigate the global mean and regional change of sea surface and land surface temperature over 2003–2013, using a large number of different data sets, and compare with changes observed over the past few decades (starting in 1950). … While confirming cooling of eastern tropical Pacific during the last decade as reported in several recent studies, our results show that the reduced rate of change of the 2003–2013 time span is a global phenomenon. GMST short-term trends since 1950 computed over successive 11-year windows with 1-year overlap show important decadal variability that highly correlates with 11-year trends of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index. The GMST 11-year trend distribution is well fitted by a Gaussian function, confirming an unforced origin related to internal climate variability.
We evaluate the time derivative of full-depth ocean heat content to determine the planetary energy imbalance with different approaches: in situ measurements, ocean reanalysis and global sea level budget. For 2003–2013, it amounts to 0.5 +/− 0.1 W m−2, 0.68 +/− 0.1 W m−2 and 0.65 +/− 0.1 W m−2, respectively for the three approaches. Although the uncertainty is quite large because of considerable errors in the climate sensitivity parameter, we find no evidence of decrease in net radiative forcing in the recent years, but rather an increase compared to the previous decades.
We can note that the correlation between GMST [global mean surface temperature] trends and AMO trends is quite high. It amounts 0.88 over the whole time span. At the beginning of the record, the correlation with PDO trends is also high (equal to 0.8) but breaks down after the mid-1980s. The GMST and AMO trends shown in Figure 6 show a low in the 1960s and high in the 1990s, suggestive of a 60-year oscillation, as reported for the global mean sea level by Chambers et al. (2012). Thus the observed temporal evolution of the GMST [global mean surface temperature] trends may just reflect a 60-year natural cycle driven by the AMO.
Subpolar North Atlantic Cooling Rapidly Since 2005
According to Piecuch et al. (2017) there has been no net warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the last quarter century. The warming that occurred in the 10 years from 1994-2004 has been completely negated by an even more pronounced cooling trend since 2005. The predominant (87%) cause of the warming was determined to be of the same natural (non-anthropogenic) origin as the subsequent cooling: advection, the movement/circulation of heat via internal processes. In fact, human CO2 emissions are never mentioned as even contributing to the the 1994-2004 warming.
Piecuch et al., 2017 The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is subject to strong decadal variability, with implications for surface climate and its predictability. In 2004–2005, SPNA decadal upper ocean and sea-surface temperature trends reversed from warming during 1994–2004 to cooling over 2005–2015. … Over the last two decades, the SPNA has undergone a pronounced climate shift. Decadal OHC and SST trends reversed sign around 2004–2005, with a strong warming seen during 1994–2004 and marked cooling observed over 2005–2015. These trend reversals were pronounced (> 0.1 °C yr−1 in magnitude) in the northeastern North Atlantic (south and west of Iceland) and in the Labrador Sea. … To identify basic processes controlling SPNA thermal variations, we diagnose the SPNA heat budget using ECCOv4. Changes in the heat content of an oceanic control volume can be caused by convergences and divergences of advective, diffusive, and surface heat fluxes within the control volume. [Advective heat convergence] explains 87% of the total [ocean heat content] variance, the former [warming] showing similar decadal behavior to the latter [cooling], increasing over 1994–2004, and decreasing over 2005–2015. … These results demonstrate that the recent SPNA decadal trend reversal was mostly owing to advective convergences by ocean circulation … decadal variability during 1993–2015 is in largest part related to advection by horizontal gyres.
Yeager and Robson (2017) also point out that, like it did from the 1960s to 1980s, the North Atlantic “has again been cooling”, a trend which they and others expect to continue. Sea surface temperatures are no warmer today than they were in the 1950s.
Yeager and Robson, 2017 [W]hile the late twentieth century Atlantic was dominated by NAO-driven THC [thermohaline circulation] variability, other mechanisms may dominate in other time periods. … More recently, the SPNA [sub polar North Atlantic] upper ocean has again been cooling, which is also thought to be related to a slowdown in the THC. A continued near-term cooling of the SPNA has been forecast by a number of prediction systems, with implications for pan-Atlantic climate.
The Southern Ocean Has Been Cooling Since The 1970s, Contrary To Models
Latif et al., 2017 The Southern Ocean featured some remarkable changes during the recent decades. For example, large parts of the Southern Ocean, despite rapidly rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, depicted a surface cooling since the 1970s, whereas most of the planet has warmed considerably. In contrast, climate models generally simulate Southern Ocean surface warming when driven with observed historical radiative forcing. The mechanisms behind the surface cooling and other prominent changes in the Southern Ocean sector climate during the recent decades, such as expanding sea ice extent, abyssal warming, and CO2 uptake, are still under debate. Observational coverage is sparse, and records are short but rapidly growing, making the Southern Ocean climate system one of the least explored. It is thus difficult to separate current trends from underlying decadal to centennial scale variability.
Turney et al., 2017 Occupying about 14% of the world’s surface, the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in ocean and atmosphere circulation, carbon cycling and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. … As a result of anomalies in the overlying wind, the surrounding waters are strongly influenced by variations in northward Ekman transport of cold fresh subantarctic surface water and anomalous fluxes of sensible and latent heat at the atmosphere–ocean interface. This has produced a cooling trend since 1979.
READ Full Report here including; Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice expansion, Pacific Ocean cooling, Glaciers, Ice sheets stable and gaining mass…
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Related :
- Stunning Drop In Global Temperatures As El Niño Warming Ends | Climatism
- Understanding The “Hottest Year Evah” | Climatism
- Climate Models Don’t Work | Climatism
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Posted: May 5, 2017 | Author: Jamie Spry | Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Global Temperature | Tags: "The Pause", Global Temperature, Global Warming Hiatus, Global Warming stasis, Natural Climate Change, Peer review study |
Tallbloke's Talkshop
Credit: concernusa.org
GWPF Science Editor Dr David Whitehouse takes a close look at some recent developments in the long-running global temperature ‘pause’ controversy.
A new paper has been published in the Analysis section of Nature called Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus.’ It confirms that the ‘hiatus’ or ‘pause’ is real. It is also rather revealing.
It attempts to explain the ‘Pause’ by looking into what is known about climate variability. They say that four years after the release of the IPCC AR5 report, which contained much about the ‘hiatus’ it is time to see what can be learned.
One could be a little sarcastic in saying why would Nature devote seven of its desirable pages to an event that some vehemently say never existed and maintain its existence has been disproved long ago.
Now, however, as the El Nino spike of the past few years levels off, analysing the…
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Posted: April 20, 2017 | Author: Jamie Spry | Filed under: Carbon Dioxide, Climate models, Climate science, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Failed Climate Models, Global Temperature, Government Grants/Funding, Govt Climate Agenda, Green Agenda, The Pause | Tags: "The Pause", Climate Change, Climate Change Hoax, Climate Change Scam, Climate science, failed climate models, Failed CMIP5 Models, Global Warming, Global Warming Hiatus, Global Warming Hoax, Global Warming Scam, Natural Climate Change, Nature Climate Change, nature journal, Peer review study, science, Science and Environment |
“The gap between observations and models persists. The observed trend deviated by as much as −0.17 °C per decade from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5; ref. 19) ensemble-mean projection1—a gap two to four times the observed trend.
The hiatus therefore continues to challenge climate science.”
– Nature Climate Change (PEER-REVIEWED STUDY)
“This paper published today in Nature Climate Change by Hedemann et al. not only confirms the existence of “the pause” in global temperature, but suggests a cause, saying “…the hiatus could also have been caused by internal variability in the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance“.
That’s an important sentence, because it demonstrates that despite many claims to the contrary, CO2 induced forcing of the planetary temperature is not the control knob, and natural variability remains in force.”
The “pause/hiatus” in Global Warming is now nearing 20 YEARS. This despite *record* man-made CO2 emitted over the same period.
Don’t be at all surprised if – CNN, BBC, ABC, CNBC, LATimes, NYTimes, WaPo, The Age, SMH and the rest of the “climate change” obsessed sycophant media don’t report this massively inconvenient climate news. – Too many reputations, jobs, govt grants and funding are now at stake.
Watts Up With That?
The “uncertainty monster” strikes again
We’ve been highly critical for some time of the paper in summer 2015 by Karl et al. that claimed “the pause” or hiatus went away once “properly adjusted” ocean surface temperature data was applied to the global surface temperature dataset. Virtually everyone in the climate skeptic community considers Karl et al. little more than a sleight of hand.
No matter, this paper published today in Nature Climate Change by Hedemann et al. not only confirms the existence of “the pause” in global temperature, but suggests a cause, saying “…the hiatus could also have been caused by internal variability in the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance“.
That’s an important sentence, because it demonstrates that despite many claims to the contrary, CO2 induced forcing of the planetary temperature is not the control knob, and natural variability remains in force.
Also of note, see the offset as designated…
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Posted: June 7, 2016 | Author: Jamie Spry | Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Alarmist Predictions, Climate science, Drought, Dud predictions, Fact Check, Failed Climate Models, Settled Science | Tags: Climate Change, drought, failed climate models, Peer review study, Settled Science |
From the department of “settled science”…
Watts Up With That?
A new publication in Nature Climate Change puts the brakes on predictions that global warming/climate change may produce continental scale droughts into the late 21st century. For example, NCAR said in 2010: CLIMATE CHANGE: DROUGHT MAY THREATEN MUCH OF GLOBE WITHIN DECADES
Then they had to back down and correct the original, when they found the drought PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index) numbers were overestimated by double the amount:
Update – July 3, 2012
This news release has been revised to reflect a miscalculation in the original study that inadvertently resulted when simulations of historical drought were combined with simulations of future drought. The revised maps, below, indicate that drought levels on the Palmer Drought Severity Index may reach -10 in certain regions, whereas the levels reached -20 on the original maps. Similarly, upper-latitude areas become less moist than previously projected. Large portions of the globe are still expected to…
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Posted: May 28, 2016 | Author: Jamie Spry | Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Carbon Dioxide, Climate science, CO2, Fact Check, Failed Climate Models, Global Temperature, Science | Tags: Carbon Dioxide, Climate Change, Clouds, CO2 Sensitivity, Debate, Global Warming, Peer review study, Science Mag, Settled Science |
When the journal “Science” prints a study doubting CO2 sensitivity, or basically, the effect that man-made CO2 has on the temperature of the atmosphere, you can be 100% sure that the “science” of climate change is most definitely not “settled”!
Good read…
PA Pundits - International
By David Kreutzer, Ph.D. ~
Last summer, the editor of Science wrote a commentary on climate change where she said “The time for debate has ended.”
After appealing to policies based on economic knowledge she doesn’t have, she finished with speculation as to which ring of Dante’s Inferno would God designate for climate skeptics.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry with former Vice President Al Gore at the Paris Climate Conference. (Photo: State Department/Sipa USA/Newscom)
All in all, it was an awesomely unscientific tour de farce and totally depressing in that it came from one of the world’s two most prestigious science journals.
Of course the time for debate hasn’t ended—especially for the meaningful debate concerning how much impact carbon dioxide has on global warming.
The relationship under debate is how much warming will the world see from a doubling of carbon dioxide—which is called the equilibrium climate sensitivity.
Members…
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Posted: October 14, 2013 | Author: Jamie Spry | Filed under: Australia, Climate, Climate Change, Sea Level Rise | Tags: Climate Change, Peer review study, sea level rise, Western Australia |
Friday, 22 July 2011
Darren Osborne
ABC
A recently published study on sea level rises in Australia and New Zealand has some questioning the effect of climate change on the oceans.
Phil Watson, a coastal researcher with the New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage, analysed data from four tide gauges, located at Fremantle, Sydney, Newcastle and Auckland, collected as far back as 1897.
He notes in his study that various long-term factors such as changes in the Moon’s orbit, El Nino events and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation affect sea levels on a periodic basis. To remove these effects, the data was converted into a 20-year moving average.
“The 20-year moving average water level time series through to 2000 clearly depict relative water level changes that are increasing over time, though at a reducing rate,” writes Watson in his study which appeared in the Journal of Coastal Research.
He says the most reliable gauges, located at Fremantle and Auckland, show an increase in sea level of approximately 120 millimetres between 1920 and 2000, or 1.5 millimetres per year. But this increase is reducing at a rate of between 0.02 and 0.04 millimetres per year.
“This decelerating trend was also evident in the detailed analysis of 25 US tide gauge records longer than 80 years in length,” he writes.
“Further research is required to rationalise the difference between the acceleration trend evident in the global sea level time-series reconstructions and the relatively consistent deceleration trend evident in the long-term Australasian tide gauge records.”
Sea rise slow down raises questions › News in Science (ABC Science).
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