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SNOW : Setting The Record Straight

SNOW - Climatism

SNOW


THE problem with lying or perpetuating a scam is that you have to be aware of the spin you’ve spun to get you there.

IN the realm of climate and weather, you pray to god (or Gaia) that the prognostications and rules, as laid out by the “97%” of ‘experts’, come to fruition or go close enough to bolster your position.

CLIMATE and weather outcomes vary greatly, depending on many factors, most of which we are yet to fully understand. Perhaps if ever, owing to the fact that “The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.” (IPCC TAR 2001)

WITH that in mind, it is feasible and encouraged to identify errors in predictions. From this we can identify uncertainty in order to sharpen hypothesis and curb costly hysteria.

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SNOW 

A good example of climate predictions gone awry is in the area of snow.

“97%” of venerated ‘scientific’ institutions in concert with the warmist mainstream media were predicting the end of snow…

IN 2000, climate expert Dr David Viner of the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit (CRU) assured us that :

Snowfall will become “A very rare and exciting event…
Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
Dr David VinerSenior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)

IN 2001, the UN IPCC predicted diminished snowfalls as human CO2 increased, claiming that “milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms” due to the activities of mankind personkind…

THEY also forecast “warmer winters and fewer cold spells, because of climate change…”

warmer-winters-ipcc

warmer-winters-ipcc

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THE “97% of Experts” Agreed Too!

2000 : a prediction from Professor Mojib Latif of Germany’s GEOMAR Heimholtz Centre for Ocean Research…

“Winters with strong frosts and lots of snow like we had 20 years ago will no longer exist at our latitudes.” – Professor Mojib Latif

2004 : Mark Lynas told us

“Snow has become so rare that when it does fall – often just for a few hours – everything grinds to a halt. In early 2003 a ‘mighty’ five-centimetre snowfall in southeast England caused such severe traffic jams that many motorists had to stay in their cars overnight. Today’s kids are missing out . . . Many of these changes are already underway, but have been accelerating over the last two decades. Termites have already moved into southern England. Garden centres are beginning to stock exotic sub-tropical species, which only a few years ago would have been killed off by winter…” – Mark Lynas

2005 : George Monbiot on climate change and snow

Winter is no longer the great grey longing of my childhood. The freezes this country suffered in 1982 and 1963 are – unless the Gulf Stream stops – unlikely to recur. Our summers will be long and warm. Across most of the upper northern hemisphere, climate change, so far, has been kind to us…

2006 : The Independent‘s somber editorial admonished us that the lack of snow was evidence of a “dangerous seasonal disorder”…

The countryside is looking rather peculiar this winter. It seems we have a number of unexpected guests for Christmas. Dragonflies, bumblebees and red admiral butterflies, which would normally be killed off by the frost, can still be seen in some parts of the country . . . Some might be tempted to welcome this late blossoming of the natural world as a delightful diversion from the bleakness of this time of year. But these fluctuations should be cause for concern because it is overwhelmingly likely that they are a consequence of global warming . . . all this is also evidence that global warming is occurring at a faster rate than many imagined…

2007 : BBC “One Planet Special”…

It Seems the Winters of Our Youth are Unlikely to Return” presenter Richard Hollingham … speaks to climate scientists to get their views. Their conclusion? In the words of the BBC, they all give “predictions of warmer winters, for UK & the Northern Hemisphere”.

2007 : Western Mail (Wales Online) … article, entititled “Snowless Winters Forecast for Wales as World Warms Up” quotes one of the global warming movement’s key figures, Sir John Houghton, former head of the IPCC and former head of the UK Met Office…

Former head of the Met Office Sir John Houghton, who is one of the UK’s leading authorities on climate change, said all the indicators suggest snowy winters will become increasingly rare He said, “Snowlines are going up in altitude all over the world. The idea that we will get less snow is absolutely in line with what we expect from global warming.”

2008 : another prediction

A study of snowfall spanning 60 years has indicated that the Alps’s entire winter sports industry could grind to a halt through lack of snow…. In some years the amount that fell was 60 per cent lower than was typical in the early 1980s, said Christoph Marty, from the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research in Davos, who analysed the records. ”I don’t believe we will see the kind of snow conditions we have experienced in past decades,” he said.

2014 : the global warming theory-obsessed New York Times touted “The End of Snow?”…

The truth is, it is too late for all of that. Greening the ski industry is commendable, but it isn’t nearly enough. Nothing besides a national policy shift on how we create and consume energy will keep our mountains white in the winter — and slow global warming to a safe level. screenhunter_314-feb-07-11-00

This is no longer a scientific debate. It is scientific fact. The greatest fear of most climate scientists is continued complacency that leads to a series of natural climatic feedbacks…”

(Climatism bolds)

The End of Snow? – The New York Times

2017 : The Age’s resident global warming catastrophist Peter Hannam signalled the end of snow…

Australia’s ski resorts face the prospect of a long downhill run as a warming climate reduces snow depth, cover and duration. The industry’s ability to create artificial snow will also be challenged, scientists say.

Snowy retreat: Climate change puts Australia’s ski industry on a downhill slope | The AGE

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A 2003 CSIRO report, part-funded by the ski industry, found that resorts could lose a quarter of their snow within 15 years…

“For the first time, they realised that their attention should be directed to a common enemy,” says Andrew Fairley, head of the Alpine Resorts Co-ordinating Council, which advises the State Government and oversees the management of Victoria’s six snow resorts. “And that enemy is climate change.”

Like those who rely on the Great Barrier Reef, the Australian ski industry sees itself as a frontline victim of global warming. A 2003 CSIRO report, part-funded by the ski industry, found that the resorts could lose a quarter of their snow in 15 years, and half by 2050. The worst case was a 96 per cent loss of snow by mid-century.

Icons under threat: The Alps – General – In Depth – theage.com.au

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CSIRO – Simulations of future snow conditions in the Australian alpine regions

Conclusion:

The low impact scenario for 2020 has a minor impact on snow conditions. Average season lengths are reduced by around five days. Reductions in peak depths are usually less than 10%, but can be larger at lower sites (e.g. Mt Baw Baw and Wellington High Plains).

The high impact scenario for 2020 leads to reductions of 30-40 days in average season lengths. At higher sites such as Mt Hotham, this can represent reductions in season duration of about 25%, but at lower sites such as Mt Baw Baw the reduction can be more significant (up to 60%)…

We have very high confidence (at least 95%) that the low impact scenarios will be exceeded and the high impact scenarios will not be exceeded.

https://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/73212/TheImpactofClimateChangeonSnowConditions2003.pdf  (Page Not Found – hmm)

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DOES the CSIRO and “97% of all experts” still stand by their snowmageddon predictions? Or is their alarmist sophistry simply more global warming climate change fear-mongering based on dogma and/or overheated UN IPCC and CSIRO climate computer models?

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SNOW DATA

WINTER snow extent is increasing globally as CO2 emissions rise…

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IT’s So Cold In Texas That Sea Turtles Are Freezing In The Ocean

FROZEN Turtles - CLIMATISM

“THIS could be the largest cold-stunning event to occur in Texas history.”


The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations
on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models
.”
– Prof. Chris Folland,
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?” – Maurice Strong, founder of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)

***

AS the natural planet shifts seasons through Fall in the Northern Hemisphere and Spring in the Southern, it’s worth looking back only 9 months ago when Earth was delivering a particularly brutal cold and snowy NH winter.

NOAA does many things well and many not so. But, ironically, one of the best things it did was to act as a warming refuge for hundreds of endangered sea turtles who would have otherwise died due to extreme cold waters off the Texas/Florida Coast.

“Experts say sea turtles that become stunned by cold weather float to the surface because they’re too cold to swim. “

“According to KHOU-TV, this could be the largest cold-stunning event to occur in Texas history.” 

I know what you’re now thinking and yes, I agree: It’s hard to validate the NOAA’s persistent “HOTTEST YEAR EVAHH” findings, so gleefully published in the mainstream media, when sea-turtles are actually dying by the hundreds thanks to “THE COLDEST OCEANS EVAHH”!

A completely isolated incident, yes. But, did any UN or NOAA climate model predict “dying turtles thanks to extreme cold oceans”?

Via CBS News :

GALVESTON, Texas — Hundreds of sea turtles have been affected by cold weather in Texas. CBS News affiliate KHOU-TV reports National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) workers have rescued 50 sea turtles so far.

An additional 200 are expected to arrive to the NOAA’s Galveston lab Friday, where they will be weighed, measured and later released back into the ocean.

Experts say sea turtles that become stunned by cold weather float to the surface because they’re too cold to swim.

A cold-stunned sea turtle may become “dehydrated because they’ve been floating on the surface for a few days,” Ben Higgins, sea turtle program manager, told KHOU-TV.

“We are the ones that push these animals to the brink of extinction, so we have an obligation to at least step in and help (and) try and restore their numbers,” Higgins said.

According to KHOU-TV, this could be the largest cold-stunning event to occur in Texas history.

Sea turtles, however, are not the only species that has been affected by cold weather. In Florida, it’s so cold that iguanas have been falling from their perchesin trees. Several residents have photographed the reptiles lying belly up on the ground.

But authorities say the iguanas are likely not dead. Most of them will thaw out if placed in the sun.

Anyone who may encounter a sea turtle that is in need of help should call (866) TURTLE-5 or (409) 771-2872.

Hundreds of sea turtles stunned by cold weather in Texas | CBS News

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A little scepticism between the agencies who control the message on “Global Warming” would not go astray in order to restore the publics faith in (once) trusted taxpayer funded institutions who used to run on science and data, not ideology, politics and grants.

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UN Carbon Regime Would Devastate Humanity And The Environment

Haiti - Dominican Republic BORDER - CLIMATISM

DISASTER divided : Two countries, one island, life-and-death differences


WITHOUT access to fossil fuels, every tree on the planet would have been cut down by now to provide for heating, cooking and industry.

THE greatest threat to the environment is not affluence, it is poverty.

BORDER between Haiti and Dominican Republic, a pristine example…

• ONE country embraces Fossil Fuels 🇩🇴

• THE other, signed up to the UN Paris Accord 🇭🇹

Border Between Haiti and Dominican Republic - CLIMATISM

BORDER between Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Guess which country contains eco-criminals that can afford to use fossil fuels, and which country contains nature-lovers who are dependent on natural renewable organic biomass for energy?

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HAITI is almost 99% deforested, as they rely almost entirely on natural ‘biomass’ (wood) for domestic and industrial fuels and building materials.

ON the other side, the forests of the fossil fuel burning, eco-terrorists – the Dominican Republic – remain lush and green :

Haiti - Dominican Republic BORDER3Haiti - Dominican Republic BORDER2Haiti - Dominican Republic BORDER5Haiti - Dominican Republic BORDER4

Haiti - Dominican Republic BORDER5 - NASA SAT

NASA Satellite : Haiti – Dominican Republic Border (CNN)

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PARIS ACCORD?

EMBRACE the UN’s draconian climate regulations by pursuing the mad rush into unreliables – wind and solar – and join Haiti in the race to energy poverty and environmental devastation.

FUEL-poverty stricken German’s are already robbing forests for wood to heat their homes in winter, unable to pay for radically priced ‘green’ energy :

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GERMAN forest thievery began in 2013 when Energiewende was in its infancy.

THE Energiewende (German for energy transition) is “the planned transition by Germany to a low carbon, environmentally sound, reliable, and affordable energy supply” (wiki). 

AFTER hundreds of €BILLIONS of taxpayer’s hard-earned money spent on sunshine and breezes, Germany’s Energiewende program has been exposed as a catastrophic failure, with carbon dioxide emissions higher now than in 2009, the year before massively subsidised ‘green’ energy was signed into German law!

GERMAN emissions last year were actually higher than in 2009, and have been on the rise again since 2014.

NUCLEAR power is still supplying 12% of Germany’s power. When this is finally phased out in a few years time, the country will be more reliant on fossil fuels than ever :

GERMANY’S RECORD COAL BOOM

THE ‘green’ dream is on ice as a ‘coal frenzy’ grips Europe and unreliables lose their attraction:

With Greenpeace successfully forcing the shutdown of nuclear power, and keeping out fracking for gas, what’s left? A boom in coal. In fact, over the next two years Germany will build 10 new power plants for hard coal.  Europe is in a coal frenzy, building power plants and opening up new mines, practically every month. It might sound odd that a boom in German coal is the result of Greenpeace’s political success. –Ezra Levant, Toronto Sun, 7 January 2014

RISING German Emissions – the numbers : 

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WHEN will the ideological push for symbolic, costly, unreliable, unwanted, economically and environmentally destructive ‘green energy’ end?

ALL that pain, for ZERO gain!

AUSTRALIA take note. Do not let recent history repeat.

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Quotation-Mark-Twain-It-s-easier-to-fool-people-than-to-convince-them CLIMATISM
CLIMATE CHANGE : It’s Easier To Fool People Than To Convince Them That They Have Been Fooled | Climatism

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GLOBAL Temperatures Rose As Cloud Cover Fell In the 1980s and 90s

Good find. Makes sense.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

We’ve been discussing the sudden rise in UK and European temperatures in the 1990s, and I was reminded about a study undertaken by Clive Best and Euan Mearns looking at the role of cloud cover four years ago:

image

Clouds have a net average cooling effect on the earth’s climate. Climate models assume that changes in cloud cover are a feedback response to CO2 warming. Is this assumption valid? Following a study with Euan Mearns showing a strong correlation in UK temperatures with clouds, we looked at the global effects of clouds by developing a combined cloud and CO2 forcing model to sudy how variations in both cloud cover [8] and CO2 [14] data affect global temperature anomalies between 1983 and 2008. The model as described below gives a good fit to HADCRUT4 data with a Transient Climate Response (TCR )= 1.6±0.3°C. The 17-year hiatus in…

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GLOBAL TEMPERATURE PLUNGE : Coolest September In The Last 10 Years


We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth,
Fmr President of the UN Foundation

***

GLOBAL atmospheric temperatures continue their rapid decline off the record heights of the 2016 super El Niño, despite record and rising CO2 emissions.

UAH global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for September, 2018 was +0.14°C, down from +0.19°C in August:

Latest Global Average Tropospheric Temperatures

Since 1979, NOAA satellites have been carrying instruments which measure the natural microwave thermal emissions from oxygen in the atmosphere. The intensity of the signals these microwave radiometers measure at different microwave frequencies is directly proportional to the temperature of different, deep layers of the atmosphere. Every month, John Christy and I update global temperature datasets that represent the piecing together of the temperature data from a total of fifteen instruments flying on different satellites over the years. A discussion of the latest version (6.0) of the dataset is located here.

The graph above represents the latest update; updates are usually made within the first week of every month. Contrary to some reports, the satellite measurements are not calibrated in any way with the global surface-based thermometer records of temperature. They instead use their own on-board precision redundant platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) calibrated to a laboratory reference standard before launch.

Latest Global Temps « Roy Spencer, PhD

 

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THE September anomaly represents a 0.72°C drop since 2016 super El Niño heights, bringing temps down now to ~1988 levels.

DON’T expect the mainstream media to report in this anytime soon. They are only concerned about hot and climbing temperatures to push their  global warming climate change agenda.

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CO2 CONCENTRATION Vs TEMPS – Correlation?

 

CO2 Vs Temp Correlation 1979 - SEP 2018 - CLIMATISM

CO2 Vs Temp Correlation 1979 – SEP 2018 – CLIMATISM

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GLOBAL TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS – You Be The Judge!

Satellites Vs Land-Based Thermometers?

satellite-v-thermometer-628x353

Satellites Vs Thermometers?

SATELLITES

NASA’s MSU satellite measurement systems, generate the RSS and UAH datasets, which measure the average temperature of every cubic inch of the lower atmosphere, the exact place where global warming theory is meant to occur.

BEFORE 2016, UAH and RSS both tracked closely showing very little warming in their data sets which led to the identification and validation of “the pause” in global warming which has since become the subject of much research and debate in peer-reviewed scientific journals.

From the RSS website:

“The simulation as a whole are predicting too much warming” – RSS

HOWEVER, by 2016, Carl Mears, who is the chief scientist for RSS (Remote Sensing Systems) and who has used the pejorative “denialist” in various correspondence, decided that “the pause” was not a good look for the global warming narrative so RSS was massively adjusted upwards, conveniently eliminating “the pause” in the RSS dataset.

MEARS’ objectivity towards the business of global temperature data collection and reporting can be found in his commentary on his website:

MEARS then published a paper claiming that new and improved adjustments have “found” that missing warming.

Mears, C., and F. Wentz, 2016: Sensitivity of satellite-derived tropospheric
temperature trends to the diurnal cycle adjustment. J. Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLID-
15-0744.1, in press.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0744.1?af=R

THE result…
Differences between the old version and new version of RSS:

(Data via WUWT)

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UAH NASA SATELLITE (Featured)

UAH is the satellite data set featured in this post and is jointly run by Dr. John R. Christy –  Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science and Director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. And Roy Spencer Ph.D. Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.

SPENCER commentary on the divergence between RSS and UAH post “adjustment”:

“We have a paper in peer review with extensive satellite dataset comparisons to many balloon datasets and reanalyses. These show that RSS diverges from these and from UAH, showing more warming than the other datasets between 1990 and 2002 – a key period with two older MSU sensors both of which showed signs of spurious warming not yet addressed by RSS. I suspect the next chapter in this saga is that the remaining radiosonde datasets that still do not show substantial warming will be the next to be “adjusted” upward.

The bottom line is that we still trust our methodology. But no satellite dataset is perfect, there are uncertainties in all of the adjustments, as well as legitimate differences of opinion regarding how they should be handled.

Also, as mentioned at the outset, both RSS and UAH lower tropospheric trends are considerably below the average trends from the climate models.

And that is the most important point to be made.”

Comments on the New RSS Lower Tropospheric Temperature Dataset « Roy Spencer, PhD

(Climatism bolds)

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THE Most Amazing Greening On Earth

“78 per cent of observed planetary greening is caused by carbon dioxide and its effect upon climate….”

DON’T expect the CO2-centric mainstream media to report on this latest study of dramatic “greening” of the planet thanks to CO2 fertilisation. When you’re in the business of demonising carbon dioxide for political ends, such good news comes as a rather unwelcome message.

Climate Etc.

by Patrick J. Michaels

We’ve long been fond of showing the satellite evidence for planetary greening caused by increasing carbon dioxide, particularly the work of Zhu et al.(2016):

View original post 713 more words


STUBBORN : Arctic Sea Ice Just Won’t Play The Game

STUBBORN Arctic - CLIMATISM

Arctic sea ice just won’t play the game!


We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world
.”
– Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment

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LITTLE gem of a read by Harry Wilkinson on the condition of the Polar Ice Caps and the overtly propagandised meltdown hysteria promulgated by alarmist ‘scientists’ and their government institutions, gleefully pimped out by the ever-compliant global warming theory-obsessed mainstream media.

WILKINSON lays out basic empirical facts that shamelessly contradict the repetitive “Death Spiral” moans from climate and Arctic experts alarmists.

THE piece is a welcome reminder to be cautious of the selective bias that the mainstream media is willing to share with you on all things global warming climate change:

“These facts get little coverage because they don’t sound alarming at all, and for most reporters that means they’re not news. These ‘inconvenient truths’ are nonetheless a helpful reminder that climate change coverage should be taken with a healthy dose of scepticism.”

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Arctic sea ice just won’t play the game

Arctic sea ice is proving remarkably reluctant to enter its appointed ‘death throes’, despite the usual suspects having already planned the funeral. Climate Change Anxiety Disorder, it turns out, is yet to impose its angst on the actual climate, no matter how hard the BBC tries to make it.

The latest observations show that Arctic sea ice is on course to have a greater minimum extent than in 2015 and 2016, and is running higher than levels seen a decade ago. Back then, the BBC reported that Arctic summers may be ice-free by 2013, although this estimate was described as being ‘too conservative’.

That prediction was spectacularly wrong, and contrary to warnings of an ‘Arctic death spiral’, sea ice extent has been remarkably stable in the last decade. No one can say what exactly will happen next; if this humbling affair teaches anything it should be precisely that.

The climate has misbehaved in other ways too. The Greenland Ice Sheet has been gaining mass at a record rate for the second year running, and Antarctic sea ice extent is perfectly normal relative to the 1981-2010 average. These facts get little coverage because they don’t sound alarming at all, and for most reporters that means they’re not news. These ‘inconvenient truths’ are nonetheless a helpful reminder that climate change coverage should be taken with a healthy dose of scepticism. There is a long way to go before we can make accurate predictions about how the climate will behave, if indeed we ever can.

Climate science has to be more deeply grounded in real-world observations rather than models that are inevitably riddled with flawed human assumptions.

Arctic sea ice just won’t play the game | The Conservative Woman

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Climatism supports…

ARCTIC SEA-ICE LATEST

THERE has been no trend in Arctic sea ice extent over the last 12 years:

FLAT trend in Arctic sea-ice extent visible over the last 12 years of the satellite record:

NO trend in Arctic sea-ice volume over the past 12 years:

BLINK chart of the past 15 years shows no “Death Spiral” trend in sea-ice volume. It does, however, show a large increase in multi-year, 2.0-3.5 metre thick sea-ice in 2018, that will consolidate into Autumn and go nowhere for years:

ARCTIC sea-ice extent still below the median but stabilised this Century:

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