ENSO and IOD : Mother Nature’s Climate and Bushfire Drivers


“People have been imagining that the climate is changing,
exaggerating every weather event, getting widespread press coverage,
and blaming it on man – for as long as there have been newspapers.”

Tony Heller
Climate Change Insanity Never Changes

“It is fortunate for the community’s peace of mind
that the Commonwealth Meteorological Office exists as a
corrective to scare mongering and shameless prophecy.”

Mr. E. Bromley : Commonwealth Meteorological Office (BoM) 1923

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AUSTRALIA’s highly variable climate is influenced by the broad patterns in the oceans around it and the atmosphere above it. These patterns are considered the dominant climate and weather drivers according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.

ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) is one of Australia and the planet’s key climate drivers, influencing extremes including devastating bushfires, droughts and flooding rains“.

ENSO swings between three key phases – La Niña (negative), neutral (inactive) and El Niño (positive).

EL NIÑO

LA NIÑA

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INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE (IOD)

WHILE El Niño and La Niña occur in the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean Dipole oscillates in the waters of the Indian Ocean, influencing climate and weather patterns of Australia and the entire planet.

Indian Ocean Dipole

Sustained changes in the difference between sea surface temperatures of the tropical western and eastern Indian Ocean are known as the Indian Ocean Dipole or IOD. The IOD is one of the key drivers of Australia’s climate and can have a significant impact on agriculture. This is because events generally coincide with the winter crop growing season. The IOD has three phases: neutral, positive and negative. Events usually start around May or June, peak between August and October and then rapidly decay when the monsoon arrives in the southern hemisphere around the end of spring.

Sea surface temperatures

Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures impact rainfall and temperature patterns over Australia. Warmer than average sea surface temperatures can provide more moisture for frontal systems and lows crossing Australia.

Indian Ocean climate influences (IOD) | BoM

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POSITIVE IOD – IMPLICATIONS FOR DROUGHT and BUSHFIRES

WHILE most of the mainstream media, and ClimateChange™️ activists have juvenilely blamed trace gas Carbon Dioxide for Australia’s devastating bushfires, little to nothing has been said about ENSO and in particular the IOD.

IT doesn’t take Einstein to workout why ClimateChange™️ activists, the CO2 theory-obsessed fake news mainstream media and the extended climate-ambulance-chasing family choose to omit natural climate drivers from their doomsday rhetoric.

HOWEVER, policy makers, industry and the public must be made aware of Mother Nature’s dominant and natural climate drivers so that public funds are not misallocated and importantly so that we can identify the warning signs of drought and other extremes using ENSO and IOD to predict and prepare for future and inevitable catastrophes.

STRONG POSITIVE IOD = DROUGHT = BUSHFIRES

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2019 RECORD DROUGHT

2019 saw the lowest rainfall on record for Australia and in particular Eastern and South Eastern Australia where the devastating bushfires occurred. This coincided with “one of the strongest positive IOD events to impact Australia in recent history”, according to the BoM.

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BoM goes on to state that “the IOD’s legacy of widespread warm and dry conditions during the second half of 2019 primed the Australian landscape for bushfire weather and heatwaves this summer.”

IN this case, it seems undeniable that ‘correlation does equal causation’.

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DATA-over-theory guy Willis Eschenbach from “the word’s most viewed climate and science website” – Watts Up With That? exposes who really are the “deniers” when in comes to identifying naturally occurring cycles of drought and rainfall patterns that influence Australia’s weather, climate and bushfires …

Australia Fires … And Misfires

I kept hearing so much about the Australian bushfires being the result of or driven by “climate change” or “global warming” that I thought I’d take a look at just what’s happened to the rainfall there. Here are a hundred and nineteen years of Australian rainfall.

Here’s the curious part. The earth has been undergoing a mild warming pretty steadily since 1970, about the last half-century.

But although the last couple years have been dry, the last half-century in Australia has been wetter than the previous half-century. Not dryer. Wetter. And a lot wetter.

In fact, anyone under about sixty years old has never experienced dry Australia.

Now, I mentioned this and showed this graph on Twitter, where I post as @weschenbach, and someone said something like “Well, Australia’s a big area to average. Maybe it’s wetter in the middle and less so on the coast.”

That seemed unlikely. I mean the moisture is coming in from the ocean and so the coasts are generally wetter than the outback … plus with overall more rain, the middle would have to be pretty wet.

But I’m a man for data over theory, so I went back to the same source listed above, and I got the rainfall records for New South Wales where the fires are. Here are those results.

australia-NSW-rainfall-1900-2019

australia-NSW-rainfall-1900-2019

And once again, yes, the last few years have surely been dry in NSW … but again, that’s weather. And once again, the recent half-century has been much wetter than the first half of the 20th century. Not dryer. Wetter.

Finally, forest management experts have been warning the Australian government over and over again for years that neglecting forest management and giving up on fire hazard reduction burns was piling up fuel in the bush, and that it was only a matter of time and a dry year before catastrophe struck … here’s a particularly strong warning from 2015, and it is far from the only one.

But nooo … misguided green activists wouldn’t hear of that. They protested the fire hazard reduction burns.

aussie-greens

aussie-greens

Hilariously, the Australian Broadcasting Commission has deleted their article on the activists’ protest because it doesn’t fit the “CLIMATE EMERGENCY!” narrative … bunch’a deceptive left-wing idiots who don’t know that the intarwebs never forget.

And when you add the incredibly high fuel load in the oily flammable eucalyptus forest to the fact that more than a dozen arsonists have been arrested for starting many of the fires, it should come as no surprise to anyone that these fires have been devastating, destructive, fatal, and horrible …

It should come as no surprise because they were warned. Clearly. Repeatedly.

Now, I live in the fire zone in California, and so I have great sympathy and compassion for those who are in the path of the fires in Australia. And our fire problem here is inter alia for the same reason—abysmal forest management practices driven by Green activists with hearts of gold and brains of oatmeal.

But those blaming it on climate change? Look, if the CO2 emissions in Australia went to zero, it might make the earth cooler by about 0.05°C by the year 2050 … call me crazy, but I don’t see Australians giving up on air travel as being a very effective fire-fighting strategy.

My best regards to everyone on a lovely clear night,

w.

Australia Fires … And Misfires | Watts Up With That?

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QUELLING COSTLY HYSTERIA

IN the heated and divisive days of CO2-centric catastrophism that we currently inhabit, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, has a fundamental responsibility as the nation’s premier, government meteorological and ‘scientific’ body to douse the flames of  ‘man-made’ Climate Change hysteria by publicly explaining to policy makers, the public and to the mainstream media that completely natural and cyclical climate events are “the main climate drivers” of climate and weather extremes in Australia.

AGAIN, policy makers, industry and the public must be made aware of Mother Nature’s dominant and natural climate drivers so that public funds are not misallocated and importantly so that we can identify the warning signs of drought and other extremes using ENSO and IOD to predict and prepare for future and inevitable catastrophes.

THEY would also do well to quell the apocalyptic fantasies being instilled by ClimateChange™️ activists and teachers into our most vulnerable – our children – leading to all manner of psychological disorders and outbreaks of genuine fear and distress …

The poor children were absolutely terrified. “We are gonna die! I don’t want to die!” screamed one little child during a propaganda session on “climate” forced on 2nd and 3rd graders at a public school in Toronto.

CHILDREN Of The Ignorant : New Zealand Schools To Terrify Children About The ‘Climate Crisis’ | Climatism

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THEY DON’T MAKE ‘EM LIKE THEY USED TO!

BACK in 1923, when scientists behaved like scientists, the BoM, then known as the Commonwealth Meteorological Office prided itself on existing as a corrective to scare mongering and shameless prophecy.” 

“It is fortunate for the community’s peace of mind that the Commonwealth Meteorological Office exists as a corrective to scare mongering and shameless prophecy.” – Mr. E. Bromley

BOY, are we praying for a return to the measured days of 1923, well before ClimateChange™️ hysteria trumped reason and dissenters called to be lynched!

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WINDMILLS & MIRRORS WON’T STOP BUSHFIRES

BOM notes that ENSO is “the dominant climate / weather driver”. And they would be correct. To think that windmills and solar panels, or handing over billions of our hard-earned money to the U.N., or shutting down one more coal-fired power station can effect ENSO is at best unscientific, at worst, insanity writ large.

IF the climate activists and their media sycophants were serious about ’emissions’ and their effect on climate and weather, they would be glueing themselves to the pavement, outside the embassies of China instead of de-industrialising Australia and sending jobs and ’emissions’ back to…China.

THE fact that they are not, proves without a doubt that ClimateChange™️ has absolutely nothing to do with the ‘environment’ or “Saving the Planet”, rather, everything to do with an unhealthy lust for power, control and the advancement of deadly socialism.

DON’T take my word for it, you only have to read Greta Thunberg’s the UN’s very own words on exactly what the “Climate Crisis” is really all about …

“the climate crisis is not just about the environment. It is a crisis of human rights, of justice, and of political will. Colonial, racist, and patriarchal systems of oppression have created and fueled it. We need to dismantle them all.” – Why We Strike Again by Greta Thunberg

TEAM GRETA Admits Climate Change Has Nothing To Do With The Environment | Climatism

WE are yet to be told what system would replace capitalism. However, one does not have to read far into the history of the environmental movement to work out which form of actual “oppression” they would prefer.

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CONCLUSION

MANY complex climate and weather factors lead to catastrophic bushfires. In my opinion, mankind does play a huge roll in the fires. Arson, the criminal build-up of dry fuel loads and poor forest management have greatly exacerbated Australia’s latest bushfire ‘crisis’.

WHILE Australia is set to have a Royal Commission following this season’s devastating bushfires that burnt over ten million hectares, levelled ~2000 homes and killed ~30, don’t expect to see the ENSO, IOD, arson or fuel-load management playing a lead roll. The climate ambulance chasers will use the enquiry – the 58th since 1939 – to push their ruinous deindustrialisation ClimateChange™️ agenda.

AS the excellent Viv Forbes predicts, the RC will merely …

“provide a grandstand for the Climate Rebellion Mob who will get starring roles on ABC/Fairfax. Big business will probably promote a carbon tax to fight bushfires while foresters and land owners will hardly be heard.” 

IF the coverage and commentary we’ve seen from the mainstream media, CO2 theory-obsessed politicians and Hollywood elites is anything to go by, then Forbes would be spot-on. A sad indictment on the 24/7 news cycle and social media times that we currently inhabit where the press and influencers instinctively default to blaming ‘man-made climate change’ for every and any weather event regardless of the actual science, underlying data or reference to history.

ACTIVISM at its most lazy and dangerous that will only lead to further loss of life, destruction of infrastructure and the decimation of plants and wildlife when the inevitable bushfires return.

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QUICK VIDS WELL WORTH WATCHING

via Bureau of Meteorology :

Understanding ENSO

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Understanding the Indian Ocean Dipole

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AUSTRALIAN Bushfire History Links :

SEE also :

EXTREME WEATHER Related :

STATE Of The Climate Report :

TEMPERATURE Related :

ORIGINS Of The Global Warming Scam :

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THE Climatism Tip Jar – Pls Help Keep The Good Fight Alive!

(Climate sceptics/rationalists still waitin’ for that “big oil” cheque to arrive in the mail!)

Help us to hit back against the bombardment of climate lies costing our communities, economies and livelihoods far, far too much.

Thanks to all those who have donated. Your support and faith in Climatism is highly motivating and greatly appreciated!

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Thank You! Jamie.

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ARCTIC Ice Hockey Stick

MOTHER NATURE, once again, not complying with the prognostications and computer models of the Climate Crisis Industry!

Science Matters

Update July 18, 2018

Arctic day 198 hockey

No one knows how long this divergence of surplus ice will persist, but for now 2018 Arctic ice extent resembles a hockey stick.  Presently the ice is 525k km2 above 11 year average (2007 to 2017 inclusive) and  ~1M km2 greater than 2007.  More detailed report from July 14 below.

ims1952007to2018

In June 2018, Arctic ice extent held up against previous years despite the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk being ice-free.  The Arctic core is showing little change, perhaps due to increased thickness (volume) as reported by DMI.

The image above shows ice extents on day 195 (July 14) for years 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2018. Note this year ice is strong on both Russian and N. American sides.  Beaufort Sea and Canadian Archipelago are solid. E. Siberian and Chukchi Seas are also solid, despite early melting in Bering Sea.  Hudson and Baffin bays still have…

View original post 224 more words


ICE, ICE BABY! Huge Expansion Of Thick Arctic Ice Over The Last Ten Years

ARTCIC ALARM - Huge Increase In Ice Past 10 Years.png


YOU will not see this inconvenient empirical data anywhere on the climate-theory-obsessed mainstream media, because it’s good news about the Arctic, and that directly contradicts their relentless bombardment of doom and gloom about Arctic sea-ice and its purported “Death Spiral”.

TO report the massive expansion of thick, multi-year ice that has built up over the past ten years threatens both media and alarmist scientists – egos, jobs, reputations and government (taxpayer) grant money…

Via Tony Heller’s Real Climate Science :

Scary Times For Climate Alarmists

There has been a huge expansion of thick ice over the last ten years.

ArticIce-2008-2018

2008    2018

Scary Times For Climate Alarmists | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog

Read the rest of this entry »


SWISS Residents Are Wrapping Glaciers In Blankets To Keep Them From Melting!?

swiss-residents-are-wrapping-glaciers-in-blankets-to-keep-them-from-melting-world-economic-forum.png


Men are born ignorant, not stupid.
They are made stupid by education.”

– Bertrand Russell

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Via (U.N) World Economic Forum :

 

Every summer for the last eight years, people who live in the Swiss Alps have been wrapping a beloved glacier in blankets.

The white canvas blankets are intended to reflect sunlight off the Rhone Glacier, to try to reduce how much of it disappears each year. And Swiss glaciologist David Volken says it’s probably working; he told Agence France-Presse the blankets may reduce seasonal melting by as much as 70%.

Image- Arnd Wiegmann:Reuters.jpg

Image: Arnd Wiegmann / Reuters

The Rhone Glacier is a popular tourist destination that has been shrinking rapidly over the last decade; of the roughly 1,148 feet (350 meters) in ice thickness lost since 1856, 131 ft has disappeared in the last 10 years alone, according to AFP. Thus the blankets.

It’s a rare approach, but not unprecedented, notes E&E News: People swaddle glaciers with reflective material in places in Italy and Germany, and Jason Box, a glaciologist with the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, began advocating for covering sections of the Greenland ice sheet with reflective material as early as 2009.

Image- Arnd Wiegmann : Reuters

Image: Arnd Wiegmann / Reuters

Polar geoengineering ideas aren’t limited to blankets. At the annual meeting of the European Geosciences Union last spring, a research group from Utrecht University proposed blowing artificial snow across Switzerland’s Morteratsch Glacier, to help reflect sunlight, according to E&E News.

Others have suggested even larger-scale interventions, like using wind-powered pumps to squirt sea water over Arctic sea ice in winter, prompting thicker (and, they hope, more stable) ice to form, Oceans Deeply reports. Scientists have also floated the idea of building artificial platform-like mounds underwater to prop up particularly vulnerable ice sheets from below.

Swiss residents are wrapping glaciers in blankets to keep them from melting | World Economic Forum

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NOT sure whether to put this down to nostalgia, tourism, hubristic madness or simply an act of climate derangement syndrome?

BUT, one thing is a given – this almost ‘artistic’ yearly ritual, in defiance of Mother Nature is, no doubt, brought on by fear and anxiety over the perceived ill effect that mankind’s excesses and emissions are having on glaciers and the climate.

IT’S a shame that the good residents of the Rhone Glacier weren’t around in 1857 to spare a few blankets for Washington’s most famous glacier, Nisqually, that retreated 3,200 feet and lost 200 feet of thickness between 1857 and 1918…

COINCIDENTALLY, the Swiss Rhone Glacier began its retreat in 1856, a year before Nisqually in Washington began its melt…

“The Rhone Glacier is a popular tourist destination that has been shrinking rapidly over the last decade; of the roughly 1,148 feet (350 meters) in ice thickness lost since 1856…”

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TONNES more blankets would have come in handy in 1902 when the Rhone Glacier was disappearing at alarming rates during NASA’s coldest years on record…

GLACIERS disappearing during NASA’s coldest years on record… Read the rest of this entry »


THE Guardian Spewing Out More Man-Made Sea Level Rise Vomit


LIKE Groundhog Day, The Guardian has published another emotion-filled, sea-level rise propaganda piece confirming how bad we are burning fossil fuels, causing Mother Nature to likely punish us with floods.

“Only 7% of the heat being trapped by greenhouse gases is stored in the atmosphere,” Hal begins. “Do you know where the other 93% lives?”

A teenager, wrists lined in aquamarine beaded bracelets, rubs sleep from her eyes. Returns her head to its resting position in her palm. The man seated behind me roots around in his briefcase for a breakfast bar. No one raises a hand.

“In the ocean,” Hal continues. “That heat is expanding the ocean, which is contributing to sea level rise, and it is also, more importantly, creating the setting for something we really don’t want to have happen: rapid melt of ice.”

“Greenhouse gases, atmosphere, expanding oceans, sea level rise, rapid melt of ice” – Shock, horror!!

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LET’S break down the hysteria one more time for The Guardian global warming climate change hysterics…

SEA LEVEL RISE

GLOBALLY, seas have risen 400 feet, 120 metres or 120,000mm over the past ~20,000 years, since the end of the last Ice Age.

Over the past 200 years seas have been rising at a relatively steady rate.

According to NOAA the current rate of global sea-level rise is 2.8 ± 0.4 mm/year:

Climate change and sea level rise over the past 20,000 years…

slr-greenland-ice-core Climate change and sea level rise over the past 20,000 years CLIMATISM

Climate change and sea level rise over the past 20,000 years

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SEA-LEVEL RISE ACCELERATION?

SEAS have not stopped rising since the end of the last great Ice Age ~20,000 years ago. However, what is pertinent to the sea-level rise debate is whether SLR is accelerating due to human CO2 emissions. Read the rest of this entry »


Kiribati. It’s still there, and it’s beautiful!

Eyes on Browne

Kiribati beach

Another year and the lovely people of Kiribati are still keeping their heads above water. More people should visit. It looks absolute paradise.

So what has changed around Kiribati lately?

Well, they have a new President(since 2016), and he seems to be not quite so gloom and doom as the last one. They had a terrible ferry sinking a few months ago. One of their sportsmen qualified for the Olympic team in weight lifting (First one ever, whoo hoo!), and the Kiribati government are looking to fill their sports education position. Anyone interested?  They are upgrading their airports to accommodate more visitors,  and a new Bar, “The Emperor” is now open on Friday nights.  Other than that, the fishing, snorkelling, and surfing are still pretty good, and life goes on as usual in these lovely pacific Islands.

One thing that has not changed in Kiribati is the level of the…

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IN Denial Of Science : ‘As climate change worsens, East African beekeepers struggle with harvest’

“Beekeeping is being widely introduced to communities in East Africa as an alternative way of making money as climate change brings harsher weather.

But Ng’ong’oni’s said even the bees are struggling to deal with drought and worsening heat extremes, despite his having planted a woodlot of trees to help provide nectar.

Benedict Wambua, a researcher at South Eastern Kenya University’s school of agriculture and veterinary sciences, found in a 2016 study that recurrent droughts were among the factors limiting the use of beekeeping as a climate coping strategy, largely because honey production fell in drought periods.

The area he and colleagues studied in Kitui County, in eastern Kenya, “showed a notable decline in productivity attributed to drought, deforestation and inefficiency” by farmers, the study said…”

As climate change worsens, East African beekeepers struggle with harvest | CSMonitor.com

“Deforestation and inefficiency by farmers”, is most definitely a man-made issue, but as for “drought”, science points to Mother Nature as the cause. An important variable conveniently left out by The Christian Science Monitor, always partial to pushing the global warming climate change scare.

BIAS BY OMISSION – the most insidious form of propaganda…

“Analysing precipitation data for the South East and North West of Kenya we found no consistent signal from human‐induced climate change and thus conclude that it has not greatly affected the likelihood of low rainfall such as in 2016.”

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WHAT other pieces of vital information do climate-theory-obsessed mainstream media outlets omit in order to deceive their readers into man-made climate change belief?

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 Related :

See also :

Bee Science related :

Origins Of The Global Warming Scam :

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Click link for more info…TQ! Jamie.

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CLAIM : Climate Change Could Trigger Volcanic Eruptions Across The World

Volcano CO2 CLIMATISM


COLOURLESS, odourless, tasteless, non-reactive, trace gas and plant food ‘carbon dioxide’ – the miracle molecule that, according to ‘scientists’, causes these phenomena, amongst a million other things (see link 20) !

  1. Incredible shrinking sheep
  2. Boy Scout tornado deaths
  3. Lobster Cannibalism
  4. Longer days
  5. Shorter days
  6. Collapse of gingerbread houses in Sweden
  7. Surge in fatal shark attacks
  8. Bigger tuna fish
  9. Fish shrinkage
  10. Glacier grows (California)
  11. Glaciers on Snowden
  12. WAR!!
  13. Longer days
  14. Shorter days
  15. Screwed-up love making
  16. The Sinking of The Titanic
  17. No more red-haired people
  18. Pear-shaped women
  19. Incontinent, impotent bald guys with extra hair growing from his toes
  20. A few other things caused by global warming…

AND now, according to ‘esteemed’ taxpayer funded climate ‘scientists’, carbon dioxide has the power to shift tectonic plates summoning deadly Volcanoes!

WOW! What a gas.

ALL of a sudden, taxing and demonising this essential trace gas that plants use as food to grow and create oxygen, makes a whole lotta sense! Not.

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HUMOROUS observation via Ms. Donna on Twitter :

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TAXPAYER funded ‘scientists’ should be studying the effects of Volcanoes on our climate, not the other way around!

The effect of volcanoes on climate and climate on volcanoes

by Javier

The effect of volcanoes on climate

The relationship between volcanoes and climate is a very complex one. From reading the media one gets the impression that they are some sort of climatic wild card. They are used to explain the cooling after the Pinatubo eruption, or the Little Ice Age cooling as a detriment to the solar hypothesis. But they are also used to explain the warming leading to mass extinctions in the distant past.

Excellent read here via WUWT …

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Related :

See also :

“Hottest Year Evahh” related :

Origins Of The Global Warming Scam :

•••

PLEASE Donate To Climatism To HELP Keep The Good Fight Alive!

(Climate rationalists are still waiting for that “big oil” cheque to arrive in the mail!)

Click link for more info…TQ! Jamie.

Donate with PayPal

•••


BIAS BY OMISSION : No Mention Of Mother Nature’s Undersea Volcanoes In The Latest Antarctic ‘Global Warming’ Scare Story

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ANTARCTICA has always been a thorn in the side of the Climate Crisis Industry. It simply has not behaved as global warming alarmists would have liked or as climate models predicted.

HISTORICALLY, Antarctica has been cooling and growing ice mass, despite rising carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions that, according to ‘global warming theory’, are meant to effect the poles greater than mid latitude regions due to the lack of humidity enhancing the theorised CO2 feedback.

RECENT Antarctic studies underscore the inconvenient contradiction to the global warming theory…

2015 NASA Study

Guardian Report 2015

2016 Nature Study

Read the rest of this entry »


TWISTERS Missing From Tornado Alley

“WHERE are they this year?
This year has been possibly the quietest tornado season in recorded history. Kansas and Oklahoma would expect to see close to 19 tornadoes between the start of the year and now, with around 13 or 14 in April alone.

But this April, there hasn’t been one!”

Mother Nature, flipping the bird at garbage-in-garbage-out climate models and the extreme weather parrots!

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Location of tornado alley and related weather systems [credit: Dan Craggs @ Wikipedia]
‘Extreme weather’ doomsayers must be scratching their heads over this. Nothing to see here – move along.

In a twist that would ruin the storyline to the Wizard of Oz, the USA’s ‘Tornado Alley’ has been strangely quiet this year, says BBC Weather.

In fact, if there are none reported in Oklahoma or Kansas on Thursday, 2018 will officially be the quietest start to the tornado season in both states …on record!

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