2015 Will Not Be The “Hottest Year On Record”

Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to 
know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” – UN IPCC 
Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itohan award-winning PhD environmental physical
chemist.

“It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of 
scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” – U.S Government
Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of
NOAA.

“The whole climate change issue is about to fall apart — Heads will roll!” – South African UN Scientist Dr. Will Alexander, April 12, 2009

“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.” – Nobel Prize Winner for
Physics, Ivar Giaever.

UAH_LT_1979_thru_November_2015_v6•••

Dr Roy Spencer, former senior scientist for Climate studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, and current principal research scientist for the University of Alabama in Huntsville, reports that 2015 will not be “The Hottest Year Ever” despite a strong El Niño …. and even stronger hot-air from the climate alarm industry.

2015 will be the 3rd Warmest Year in the Satellite Record

December 3rd, 2015

Way back in June, John Christy and I called 2015 as being the warmest year on record…in the surface thermometer data. Given the strong El Nino in progress, on top of the official thermometer data warming trend, this seemed pretty obvious.

Of course, everyone has their opinions regarding how good the thermometer temperature trends are, with periodic adjustments that almost always make the present warmer or the past colder.

But I’m not going there today…

Instead, I’m going to talk about our only truly global dataset: the satellite data. With the November 2015 data now in, it’s pretty clear that in our UAH analysis 2015 will only be the 3rd warmest year since the satellite record began in 1979. Based upon my calculations, this will be true no matter what happens in December (barring Armageddon).

Here are the yearly rankings, for which I assumed the December 2015 anomaly will be +0.40 C (click for full-size):
UAH-LT-El-Nino-year-rankings

The years are displayed with the warmest on the left, and the coldest on the right. The color coding and arrows have to do with El Nino years…

Read on …

2015 will be the 3rd Warmest Year in the Satellite Record « Roy Spencer, PhD

•••

UAH and RSS

With the ever increasing divergence of surface temperatures (NASA GISS) from satellite ones (UAH/RSS), and the subsequent divergence of overheated climate models (IPCC CMIP5) to observed reality, it is worth some background on the atmospheric temperature measurement systems used to measure the temperature of the lower troposphere – the exact place where global warming theory is meant to occur and be measured :

Roy Spencer :

…if for no other reason than this: thermometers cannot measure global averages — only satellites can. The satellite instruments measure nearly every cubic kilometer – hell, every cubic inch — of the lower atmosphere on a daily basis. You can travel hundreds if not thousands of kilometers without finding a thermometer nearby.

The two main research groups tracking global lower-tropospheric temperatures (our UAH group, and the Remote Sensing Systems [RSS] group) show 2014 lagging significantly behind 2010 and especially 1998:

Yearly-global-LT-UAH-RSS-thru-Sept-2014.png

With only 3 months left in the year, there is no realistic way for 2014 to set a record in the satellite data.
Granted, the satellites are less good at sampling right near the poles, but compared to the very sparse data from the thermometer network we are in fat city coverage-wise with the satellite data.
In my opinion, though, a bigger problem than the spotty sampling of the thermometer data is the endless adjustment game applied to the thermometer data. The thermometer network is made up of a patchwork of non-research quality instruments that were never made to monitor long-term temperature changes to tenths or hundredths of a degree, and the huge data voids around the world are either ignored or in-filled with fictitious data.
Furthermore, land-based thermometers are placed where people live, and people build stuff, often replacing cooling vegetation with manmade structures that cause an artificial warming (urban heat island, UHI) effect right around the thermometer. The data adjustment processes in place cannot reliably remove the UHI effect because it can’t be distinguished from real global warming.
Satellite microwave radiometers, however, are equipped with laboratory-calibrated platinum resistance thermometers, which have demonstrated stability to thousandths of a degree over many years, and which are used to continuously calibrate the satellite instruments once every 8 seconds. The satellite measurements still have residual calibration effects that must be adjusted for, but these are usually on the order of hundredths of a degree, rather than tenths or whole degrees in the case of ground-based thermometers.
And, it is of continuing amusement to us that the global warming skeptic community now tracks the RSS satellite product rather than our UAH dataset. RSS was originally supposed to provide a quality check on our product (a worthy and necessary goal) and was heralded by the global warming alarmist community. But since RSS shows a slight cooling trend since the 1998 super El Nino, and the UAH dataset doesn’t, it is more referenced by the skeptic community now. Too funny.
In the meantime, the alarmists will continue to use the outdated, spotty, and heavily-massaged thermometer data to support their case. For a group that trumpets the high-tech climate modeling effort used to guide energy policy — models which have failed to forecast (or even hindcast!) the lack of warming in recent years — they sure do cling bitterly to whatever will support their case.
As British economist Ronald Coase once said, “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.”
So, why are the surface thermometer data used to the exclusion of our best technology — satellites — when tracking global temperatures? Because they better support the narrative of a dangerously warming planet.
Except, as the public can tell, the changes in global temperature aren’t even on their radar screen (sorry for the metaphor).

Why 2014 Won’t Be the Warmest Year on Record « Roy Spencer, PhD

•••

UPDATE

The temperature divergence, this century, between NASA GISS temp (land based) and RSS satellite data, is mind-blowing.

Looks like someone is adjusting the curve to fit the ‘global warming’ narrative. Gavin? Tom?

Paul Homewood from NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT :

Between 1979 and 2001, the RSS satellite data increased at virtually the same rate as GISS. Since then, there has been a massive divergence, with GISS claiming that the pace of increase has barely reduced from the earlier period.

In contrast RSS (and also UAH) confirm that, if anything, temperatures have been dropping.

trend

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

It’s time to call the fraud squad in.

•••

Related :

Climate alarmist industry headlines “Hottest Year Ever” :


RSS Continues To Diverge From GISS

Perhaps Gavin forgot to adjust-out the UHI effect of ‘hot-air’ belched from 40,000 climate warriors in Paris?

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

RSS figures for November are now out, and also show a small fall on October, as did UAH. The 12-month running average still refuses to go above earlier years, despite the strongest El Nino conditions since 1998.

ts.gif

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

Although temperatures are likely to rise still further in the next few months, there is absolutely no way this year will come close to approaching either 1998 or even 2010.

image

Between 1979 and 2001, the RSS satellite data increased at virtually the same rate as GISS. Since then, there has been a massive divergence, with GISS claiming that the pace of increase has barely reduced from the earlier period.

In contrast RSS (and also UAH) confirm that, if anything, temperatures have been dropping.

trend

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1979/plot/gistemp/from:1979/plot/rss/from:1979/to:2001/trend/plot/rss/from:2001/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1979/to:2001/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2001/trend

It’s time to call the fraud squad in.

View original post


The robust Pause resists a robust el Niño Still no global warming at all for 18 years 9 months

With the ever increasing divergence of surface temperatures from satellite ones, and the subsequent divergence of overheated climate models to observed reality, it is worth a background on atmospheric measurement systems from former NASA climate scientist Dr. Roy Spencer, Ph.D. – climatologist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville who he developed the first temperature record based on satellites…

Roy Spencer On Satellite (UAH / RSS) v Surface Temperature Data (NASA GISS) :

I claim 2014 won’t be the warmest global-average year on record.
..if for no other reason than this: thermometers cannot measure global averages — only satellites can. The satellite instruments measure nearly every cubic kilometer – hell, every cubic inch — of the lower atmosphere on a daily basis. You can travel hundreds if not thousands of kilometers without finding a thermometer nearby.
(And even if 2014 or 2015 turns out to be the warmest, this is not a cause for concern…more about that later).
The two main research groups tracking global lower-tropospheric temperatures (our UAH group, and the Remote Sensing Systems [RSS] group) show 2014 lagging significantly behind 2010 and especially 1998:

Yearly-global-LT-UAH-RSS-thru-Sept-2014.png

With only 3 months left in the year, there is no realistic way for 2014 to set a record in the satellite data.
Granted, the satellites are less good at sampling right near the poles, but compared to the very sparse data from the thermometer network we are in fat city coverage-wise with the satellite data.
In my opinion, though, a bigger problem than the spotty sampling of the thermometer data is the endless adjustment game applied to the thermometer data. The thermometer network is made up of a patchwork of non-research quality instruments that were never made to monitor long-term temperature changes to tenths or hundredths of a degree, and the huge data voids around the world are either ignored or in-filled with fictitious data.
Furthermore, land-based thermometers are placed where people live, and people build stuff, often replacing cooling vegetation with manmade structures that cause an artificial warming (urban heat island, UHI) effect right around the thermometer. The data adjustment processes in place cannot reliably remove the UHI effect because it can’t be distinguished from real global warming.
Satellite microwave radiometers, however, are equipped with laboratory-calibrated platinum resistance thermometers, which have demonstrated stability to thousandths of a degree over many years, and which are used to continuously calibrate the satellite instruments once every 8 seconds. The satellite measurements still have residual calibration effects that must be adjusted for, but these are usually on the order of hundredths of a degree, rather than tenths or whole degrees in the case of ground-based thermometers.
And, it is of continuing amusement to us that the global warming skeptic community now tracks the RSS satellite product rather than our UAH dataset. RSS was originally supposed to provide a quality check on our product (a worthy and necessary goal) and was heralded by the global warming alarmist community. But since RSS shows a slight cooling trend since the 1998 super El Nino, and the UAH dataset doesn’t, it is more referenced by the skeptic community now. Too funny.
In the meantime, the alarmists will continue to use the outdated, spotty, and heavily-massaged thermometer data to support their case. For a group that trumpets the high-tech climate modeling effort used to guide energy policy — models which have failed to forecast (or even hindcast!) the lack of warming in recent years — they sure do cling bitterly to whatever will support their case.
As British economist Ronald Coase once said, “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.”
So, why are the surface thermometer data used to the exclusion of our best technology — satellites — when tracking global temperatures? Because they better support the narrative of a dangerously warming planet.
Except, as the public can tell, the changes in global temperature aren’t even on their radar screen (sorry for the metaphor).

via Roy Spencer On Satellite v Surface Temperature Data | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

2015 “Hottest Year Ever” Update :

2015 will be the 3rd Warmest Year in the Satellite Record « Roy Spencer, PhD

Watts Up With That?

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

The Christmas pantomime here in Paris is well int0 its two-week run. The Druids who had hoped that their gibbering incantations might begin to shorten the Pause during the United Necromancers’ pre-solstice prayer-group have been disappointed. Gaia has not heeded them. She continues to show no sign of the “fever” long promised by the Prophet Gore. The robust Pause continues to resist the gathering el Niño. It remains at last month’s record-setting 18 years 9 months (Fig. 1).

clip_image002

Figure 1. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset continues to show no global warming for 18 years 9 months since February 1997, though one-third of all anthropogenic forcings have occurred during the period of the Pause.

The modelers ought to be surprised by the persistence of the Pause. NOAA, with rare honesty, said in its 2008 State of…

View original post 4,467 more words


Removing The 1940’s Blip

“Without all of this massive data tampering by the Hockey Team, the global warming story collapses.”

So true.

Real Science

As of 1975, there was nearly unanimous consensus among experts that the first half of the 20th century was exceptionally warm, and that temperatures had plummeted after 1940.

The National Academy of Sciences published this graph, showing that the late 1960’s were cooler than the turn of the 20th century.

ScreenHunter_600 Jun. 21 17.05

From 1900 to 1950, there was dramatic retreat of ice in the Northern Hemisphere

POLAR ICE THAW INCREASING  GLACIERS SAID TO BE MELTING

CLEVELAND, Feb. 16 (A.A.P.) Dr. William S. Carlson, an Arctic expert, said to-night that the Polar icecaps were melting at an astonishing and unexplained rate and were threatening to swamp seaports  by raising the ocean levels.

The glaciers of Norway and Alaska are only half the size they were 50 years ago. The temperature around Spitsbergen has so modified that the sailing time has lengthened from three to eight months of the year,” he said. ‘

18 Feb 1952 – POLAR ICE THAW INCREASING GLACIERS SAID TO [?]…

View original post 382 more words


A Consistent Pattern Of Data Tampering Across The Planet

Real Science

NASA has corrupted the temperature record across the entire planet, in order to create the appearance of warming. The graph below shows US temperatures – Hansen 1999 in blue, and GISS in red. The graphs are normalized to the 1997 five year mean lines.

ScreenHunter_205 Feb. 20 06.49

NASA GISS: Science Briefs: Whither U.S. Climate?

Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis: Analysis Graphs and Plots

The next four graphs show how GISS has cooled the past globally, and at all three latitude bands since Hansen 1981.

ScreenHunter_203 Feb. 20 06.35ScreenHunter_202 Feb. 20 06.32ScreenHunter_195 Feb. 20 06.14ScreenHunter_192 Feb. 20 06.04

pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1981/1981_Hansen_etal_1.pdf

Similarly, NOAA (red) has cooled the US past since their 1990 report (black)

BgZh6BcCYAEji0A

www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams-sotc/climate-assessment-1981-1990.pdf

The most damning graph of all though is the one below, showing how NOAA (red) is cooling the past relative to their own thermometer data (blue)

BgqD5wpCMAAjkG3

View original post


GLOBAL WARMING Is The Greatest And Most Successful Pseudoscientific Fraud In History

The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations
on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models
.”
– Prof. Chris Folland,
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

It doesn’t matter what is true,
it only matters what people believe is true
.”
– Paul Watson,
co-founder of Greenpeace

“As we all know, this isn’t about truth at all, its about plausibly deniable accusations.”

– Michael E. Mann | Climategate Emails

aaa jones

“Kevin and I will keep (skeptic papers) out (of IPCC) somehow – even if we have to redefine what peer-review literature is” – Phil Jones | Climategate Emails

“As you know, I’m not political. If anything, I would like to see the climate change happen, so the science could be proved right, regardless of the consequences. This isn’t being political, it is being selfish.” – Phil Jones

•••

If you think that the tampering of the earth’s temperature record, to fit the man-made global warming narrative, is another climate denier conspiracy theory, then read this Climategate email from the UK’s leading climate expert, Phil Jones, to the UK Met Office and officials…

screenhunter_400-feb-09-04-21

via Real Science – Phil Jones Fishing For Excuses To Kill Off Global Cooling.

UPDATE

He who controls the past, controls the future. He who controls the present, controls the past …

screenhunter_303-feb-07-09-19

They did exactly what Wigley was suggesting, removing more than 0.15 C from 1940′s global temperatures. This tampering is what made the hockey stick possible.

If the present refuses to get warmer, then the past must become cooler …

screenhunter_230-feb-06-05-291

Motherlode Part III | Real Science

•••

UPDATE

MUST SEE Video : Sun news – NASA fudges historical temperature numbers to bolster claim that global warming exists.

Screen Shot 2014-02-13 at , February 13, 9.13.12 pm

NASA funding facts or fiction? : Prime time : SunNews Video Gallery

See Also : SUN NEWS EXCLUSIVE : NASA Fudges Historical Temperature Data | Climatism

•••

UPDATE

via Steve Goddard’s Real Science :

NASA is constantly altering their historical data to create the appearance of a non-existent warming trend.

GISS-1981-2002-2014-global

gissus19992014

The NASA graphs are useful for politicians who want to raise taxes, and for insurance companies who want to raise premiums – but are worse than useless for scientists who actually want to understand the climate. They show the exact opposite of what is happening to the climate.

The NASA Temperature Record Is A Farce | Real Science

•••

UPDATE

MUST SEE Climategate Video :

The ‘still’ present Director of the UK’s Climatic Research Unit (CRU), ‘Scientist’ Phil Jones gives evidence to the UK Parliamentary Enquiry into Climategate 2009 …

“I’ve obviously written some awful emails, and I fully admit that …”

•••

UPDATE (COP21 November 2015)

Biggest Fraud In History – Perpetrated By Tom Karl And Gavin Schmidt

•••

More NASA fraud here:

The Biggest Fraud In Science History http://wp.me/p3Bc8A-2vA via @JWSpry

For Charts and Evidence see Real Science’s ‘Motherlode’ Series :

Climategate Related :

NASA / NOAA / IPCC  Temperature Data Fraud Related :

Climatism Related :


NASA Giving The Past A Good Thrashing Since 1999