TIM FLANNERY : Professor of Dud Predictions and Climate Falsehoods
Posted: March 12, 2018 Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Alarmism uncovered, Australia, Bureau Of Meterology, Carbon Dioxide, Climate Alarmism, Climatism, Drought, Dud predictions, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Flannery, Floods, Government Grants/Funding, Govt Climate Agenda, Green Agenda, ORIGINS OF THE GLOBAL WARMING SCAM, Pseudo-Science, Tim Flannery | Tags: Alarmism, Climate alarmism, Climate Change, Climate Commission, Climate Council, climate lies, Climate science, Desal Plants, Desalinisation, drought, Dud Predictions, Flannery, flood, Global Warming, Q&A, QandA, Their ABC, Tim Flannery 18 Comments
“SO even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to
fill our dams and our river systems…”
– Dr Tim Flannery
“This planet is on course for a catastrophe.
The existence of Life itself is at stake.”
– Dr Tim Flannery
Climate Council
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TIM FLANNERY, former Climate Commissioner of Australia from 2011-2013 earned $180,000 per year for a three-day working week to make predictions and decisions that affected billions upon billions of dollars of Australian taxpayers’ money.
AFTER being rightly sacked by the Abbott government in 2013, Flannery began his own go-fund-me version of the Climate Commission, the Climate Council, which continues the propagandised rollout of catastrophic climate predictions and unreliable-energy pipe dreams.
NEVER far from the government teat, Flannery is regularly wheeled out by Australia’s government run media monolith their ABC, appearing as resident climate ‘expert’ whenever a catastrophic weather event hits the news cycle, or simply to inject a dose of hysteria into the conversation when climate alarm is waning.
TONIGHT, Flannery appears on Q&A, the ABC’s TV panel discussion program…
Coming up | Q&A | ABC TV
TO understand why the ABC and Q&A are so ‘impressed’ by the former ‘Australian of the year’, let’s take a brief look at Flannery’s impressive career of climate predictions and prognostications…
TIM FLANNERY – Curriculum Vitae
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FLOODS and DROUGHT
In 2004 Flannery said:
“I think there is a fair chance Perth will be the 21st century’s first ghost metropolis. It’s whole primary production is in dire straits and the eastern states are only 30 years behind.”
We are “one of the most physically vulnerable people on the Earth,” and “southern Australia is going to be impacted very severely and very detrimentally by global climate change.” We are going to experience “conditions not seen in 40 million years.”
In 2007 he said:
“…That’s because the soil is warmer because of global warming and the plants are under more stress and therefore using more moisture. So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems, and that’s a real worry for the people in the bush. If that trend continues then I think we’re going to have serious problems, particularly for irrigation.”
“The one-in-1000-years drought is, in fact, Australia’s manifestation of the global fingerprint of drought caused by climate change.”
In May 2007 he warned that:
“Brisbane and Adelaide – home to a combined total of three million people – could run out of water by year’s end;”
and that the country was facing
“the most extreme and the most dangerous situation arising from climate change facing any country in the world right now.”
In June 2007 he said:
“Over the past 50 years southern Australia has lost about 20 per cent of its rainfall, and one cause is almost certainly global warming. Similar losses have been experienced in eastern Australia, and although the science is less certain it is probable that global warming is behind these losses too. But by far the most dangerous trend is the decline in the flow of Australian rivers: it has fallen by around 70 per cent in recent decades, so dams no longer fill even when it does rain …
In Adelaide, Sydney and Brisbane, water supplies are so low they need desalinated water urgently, possibly in as little as 18 months.”
In 2008 he warned again that:
“The water problem is so severe for Adelaide that it may run out of water by early 2009.”
AND then the rains came, as they always do in the land of “droughts and flooding rains“…
BY December 2008 Adelaide’s reservoirs were 75% full, Perth’s 40%, Sydney’s 63%, and Brisbane’s reservoir’s were 46% full.
BY 2009 dams for Brisbane, Canberra and Sydney were filled to overflowing.
PRESENTLY Adelaide’s reservoirs are 57%, Perth’s 39%, Melbourne’s 64%, Sydney’s 77%, and Brisbane’s reservoir’s are 83% full.
CYCLONES
In 2015 Flannery said:
“Sadly we’re more likely to see them more frequently in the future.”.
Reality check:
A year later, not one severe cyclone was recorded, continuing the downward trend in severity and frequency of tropical cyclones, despite rising CO2/temps…
Graph showing the number of severe and non-severe tropical cyclones from 1970-2017 which have occurred in the Australian region. Severe tropical cyclones are shown here as those with a minimum central pressure less than 970 hPa.
Nature journal confirms:
“Studies project a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones towards the end of the 21st century in the southwest Pacific, southern Indian, and Australian regions.”
Australian tropical cyclone activity lower than at any time over the past 550–1,500 years | Nature
THE ARCTIC
Reality check:
MINIMUM Arctic sea-ice extent has been trending up over the past decade, and is most definitely not “ice-free”! The EXACT opposite of what Flannery, the press and ‘97% experts’ have been telling you :
Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut | September Minimum Extent
ARCTIC SEA-ICE VOLUME (September 2018)
2.0 – 3.0 meter-thick sea-ice covered most of the Arctic basin during the 2018 summer minimum :
DMI Modelled ice thickness | Sep 20, 2018
ARCTIC minimum sea-ice volume has been increasing since 2007 :
@KiryeNet キリエ on Twitter : “The Arctic has been refreezing for 12 years…minimum sea ice volume has been rising since 2007”
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THE Great “Extreme Weather” Climate Change Propaganda Con
Posted: February 22, 2017 Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Carbon Dioxide, Climate Alarmism, Climatism, CO2, Drought, Empirical Evidence, Extreme Weather, Fact Check, Floods, Green Agenda, Hurricanes, Propaganda, Typhoons, UN | Tags: California, Climate Change, Climate Change Scam, Climate science, Cyclones, drought, Extreme weather, flood, Global Warming Scam, Global Warming Scare, Hurricanes, Precipitation, propaganda, Scare Mongering, snow, Typhoons 27 Comments
The “Extreme Weather” meme has earned its place in climate change history as the fundamental driver of climate scaremongering, used deceptively and effectively to promote the catastrophic man-made climate change theory by instilling fear, doom and gloom directly into the human psyche through simple imagery and repetitive correlation rhetoric.
Even though “weather” is not climate, the daily bombardment via news and multi-media of climatic disaster clips provide more than enough evidence for the casual observer to convince them that the climate is in fact changing as a direct result of human CO2 emissions.
Much of the mainstream media gleefully encourages and promotes the catastrophic man-made warming narrative. Hence, sensationalising a typhoon in the Phillipines or a forest fire in California has become fair-game in the virtuous and IMHO nefarious push to enhance the supposed human CO2-induced climate catastrophe.
However, when you look at hard data and scientific evidence pertaining to extreme weather through the lens of “Government data” and “Peer-Reviewed Science”, as opposed to scary pictures and videos, absorbed via billions of iPhones and hysterical climate-obsessed mainstream media, things are not quite as bad as they seem. In fact, by most metrics, extreme weather events are becoming ‘less’ extreme as CO2 increases. This should come as relieving news to all, though sadly, yet predictably, such data will come as extremely inconvenient news to the virtuous “Save The Planet” lobby and especially those invested in the trillion dollar global warming climate change industry that feeds and thrives off doomsday scenarios.
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Below are listed the more common metrics associated with the much maligned and deceptively ascribed “extreme weather” meme. A term which I would label as a very clever weapon of mass climate propaganda to elevate hysteria, emotions and fear with the ultimate end to mould groupthink belief in human CO2-induced climate change…
HURRICANES
The US is currently experiencing a record 12 year (4,380 days) drought of major landfall hurricanes (Cat3+). The last major hurricane to hit was “Wilma” in 2005:
The major hurricane drought for Category 3 or greater storms continues. Updated December 2016 by Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. (via WUWT)
Interesting historical reference point:
NOAA keeps hurricane records back to 1850. The average number of US hurricane strikes per presidency is about eleven. Obama’s presidency had five hurricane strikes, the last being “Matthew” (Cat 1 at landfall, October 8,2016).
Grover Cleveland (1885 – 1889 & 1893 – 1897) and Franklin D Roosevelt (1933 – 1945) both presided over 26 hurricanes, almost six times as many as Obama:
The presidency of Barack Obama had the lowest frequency of US hurricane strikes of any president:
Charts via Steve S Goddard – Only updated to 2014
NOAA – Chronological List of All Hurricanes
During Obama’s presidency, atmospheric CO2 levels were between 384-400 ppm. At the time of Grover Cleveland, atmospheric CO2 levels were at 294 ppm. (NASA CO2 Data)
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TORNADOES
Last years tornado season marked the fifth consecutive year of below normal tornado activity in the US:
NOAA | Storm Prediction Center WCM Page
NOAA
Over the past 55 years there has been a large reduction in frequency of stronger tornadoes:
There has been no trend in EF-1+ Tornadoes 1954-2014:
Historical Records and Trends | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) formerly known as National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
Paul Homewood, of the excellent climate blog NALOPKT, notes that NOAA has not bothered to update Tornado data for 2015/16. “Could it be they would rather the public did not find out the truth?”
Last year may set the record for the least number of Tornadoes on record:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data
In summary, with an interesting caveat from NOAA:
- No trend in EF-1+ Tornadoes 1954-2014 tornadoes.
- Large reduction in frequency of stronger tornadoes over the past 55 years.
- 2016 perhaps a record for the least number of Tornadoes on record.
ALL THIS despite rising CO2 and advanced technologies, including doppler radar and greater attention to reporting – Tornado chasers, increased population etc – which can create “a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency.” – NOAA
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TROPICAL CYCLONES
Jamal Munshi of Sonoma State University published this paper last June, A General Linear Model for Trends in Tropical Cyclone Activity:
ABSTRACT
The ACE index is used to compare tropical cyclone activity worldwide among seven decades from 1945 to 2014. Some increase in tropical cyclone activity is found relative to the earliest decades. No trend is found after the decade 1965-1974. A comparison of the six cyclone basins in the study shows that the Western Pacific Basin is the most active basin and the North Indian Basin the least. The advantages of using a general linear model for trend analysis are described.
A General Linear Model for Trends in Tropical Cyclone Activity by Jamal Munshi :: SSRN
Again, despite rising CO2, there is no trend in tropical cyclone activity after the decade 1965-1974. With a sharp decline in activity over the past two decades.
AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL CYCLONES
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology graph shows a significant downtrend in all tropical storms, with no discernible trend for severe tropical cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone Trends | Bureau Of Meteorology
Again, it’s clear from the BoM graph that as CO2 has increased, the frequency and strength of cyclones has decreased.
NB, the (warmist) BoM is still yet to update its cyclone graph from 2011. Are they simply lazy? Have no data since 2011? Or are they trying to hide inconvenient climate data that doesn’t fit the CO2-induced extreme weather narrative? You decide.
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SNOW
Snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event.”
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
Dr David Viner – Senior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)
Climate change alarmists (experts) use tangible and emotional climatic horror scenarios to scare you into belief. One of the more classic instances of such fear-mongering, gone horribly wrong, was that by Dr David Viner – esteemed climatologist from the UK’s CRU, in 2000.
From the Independent’s most cited article: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past by Charles Onians:
However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
After over 15 years, the Independent removed that article, and the URL used to come up like this:
It originally read like this:
The original link now boots back to their homepage.
Our friends at WUWT have preserved the entire article as a PDF for posterity:
Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past – The Independent (PDF)
In fairness, perhaps the good Dr Viner was colluding consulting with the virtuous partners of climate catastrophe expertise, the UN IPCC…
IPCC Third Assessment Report – Climate Change 2001 – Complete online versions | GRID-Arendal – Publications – Other
IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The (warmist) CSIRO jumped on the “end of snow” bandwagon in August 2003:
Simulations of future snow conditions in the Australian alpine regions were prepared for the years 2020 and 2050…Conclusion:
The low impact scenario for 2020 has a minor impact on snow conditions. Average season lengths are reduced by around five days. Reductions in peak depths are usually less than 10%, but can be larger at lower sites (e.g. Mt Baw Baw and Wellington High Plains).
The high impact scenario for 2020 leads to reductions of 30-40 days in average season lengths. At higher sites such as Mt Hotham, this can represent reductions in season duration of about 25%, but at lower sites such as Mt Baw Baw the reduction can be more significant (up to 60%)…
We have very high confidence (at least 95%) that the low impact scenarios will be exceeded and the high impact scenarios will not be exceeded.
In 2014, the New York Times signalled “The End of Snow”:
The End of Snow? – NYTimes.com
BACK TO THE REAL WORLD
2017 Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent was amongst the highest on record last month:
Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab
Winter Northern Hemisphere snow extent is trending upwards, despite rising CO2 emissions:
Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab
SNOW EXTENT UPDATE 2017
January snow extent update… 10th highest on record.
“Global Warming”?
Again, as CO2 has increased, NH Snow extent has increased :
Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab
And for Australia’s CSIRO who assured the end of snow by 2020/2030…
Heavy snow forecast for the Australian Alps despite ski season ending a month ago
Australia’s snowfields have been overdosed by snow over the past 5+ years.
“DISAPPEARING” SNOW UPDATE – August 8, 2017
Emergency services warn of avalanches in Victoria’s alpine region
THE “Blizzard Of Oz” That Wasn’t Meant To Be | Climatism
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FLOODS / DROUGHT
“So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems…” Tim Flannery 2007
“This planet is on course for a catastrophe.
The existence of Life itself is at stake.”
– Dr Tim Flannery,
Climate Council
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology 2008:
IT MAY be time to stop describing south-eastern Australia as gripped by drought and instead accept the extreme dry as permanent, one of the nation’s most senior weather experts warned yesterday.
“Perhaps we should call it our new climate,” said the Bureau of Meteorology’s head of climate analysis, David Jones….
“There is a debate in the climate community, after … close to 12 years of drought, whether this is something permanent…”
The Bureau’s David Jones in 2007:
As Jones wrote to the University of East Anglia the year before: “Truth be know, climate change here is now running so rampant that we don’t need meteorological data to see it. Almost everyone of our cities is on the verge of running out of water and our largest irrigation system (the Murray Darling Basin is on the verge of collapse…”
The CSIRO, 2009:
A three-year collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO has confirmed what many scientists long suspected: that the 13-year drought is not just a natural dry stretch but a shift related to climate change…
”It’s reasonable to say that a lot of the current drought of the last 12 to 13 years is due to ongoing global warming,” said the bureau’s Bertrand Timbal.
THE REAL WORLD (as of 2016 data)
For the continent of Australia as a whole, there is more rain, not less – and certainly no permanent drought:
2016:
Winter was Australia’s second wettest on record – just missing out on a new high by a couple of millimetres, leaving many regions already sodden.
“It’s about as wet as it has been in the past 110 years [of records] across Australia,” David Jones, head of climate predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology, said.
Floods! Near-record rainfall! When will the head of climate predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology (David Jones) explain why his 2008 prediction of a “new climate” of drought turned out so, so wrong?
THE CONSEQUENCES OF PROFESSIONAL CLIMATE ALARMISTS’ DUD-PREDICTIONS
How warmists cost us billions
The price of global warming alarmism is enormous. Take the cost of the mothballed desalination plants, built after warmists persuaded politiciansthe rains would dry up:
Sydney’s privatised desalination plant, which is costing residents more than $500,000 a day to keep on standby, will not be needed for at least another four or five years. The sale of the plant last year to a private company for $2.3 billion means residents are locked into paying about $10 billion in fees for the next 50 years, whether the plant is operating or not. Not one drop of water has come out of the Kurnell facility since it stopped operating more than a year ago. With dam levels at 93.4 per cent, the plant has been placed into “water security” mode, a long-term shutdown which is likely to continue for some time.”My best estimate is it will still be about four to five years before we turn the desalination plant on,” Sydney Water’s managing director Kevin Young told 7.30 New South Wales
Mind you, big cities did need more water security as they grew. Dams were the cheap option, but who made those almost illegal?
How warmists cost us billions | Herald Sun
More: The legacy of Tim Flannery..White elephant desalination plants | Climatism
Australia is now awash with water. Nearly every dam is full. And we are left with x4 mothballed desal plants that cost $12Billion to build and are costing the taxpayer $1million per day (each) under contract until 2030/50.
Unfortunately, the worst Flannery and his climate change alarmist comrades can ever be accused of, for the litany of failed alarmist dud-predictions resulting in massive taxpayer-dollar waste, is an excess of “Save the planet”virtue.
CALIFORNIA
Last September, New York’s Daily News forecast centuries of global warming drought for California:
One of the myriad incorrect assertions by climate-change deniers is that scientists who have proven manmade causes for the current global warming ignore periods of warming in the Earth’s past that were not caused by industrial pollution.
Since it’s essentially, and of course ironically, entirely non-scientists who make this claim, the deniers would do well to read a recent UCLA study that indicates California’s current six-year severe drought could be exacerbated enough by global warming to extend the dry period for centuries.
California has now seen more moisture in the last 8 weeks than it typically does in an entire year… San Francisco, Sacramento, Los Angeles, and several other cities have recorded one of their wettest Januarys on record and an incredibly wet 8 weeks overall.
And for those who desire to claim the recent California floods are “unprecedented” and “extreme”, the below graph shows that inflow to Oroville so far this year is far from unprecedented, with a much greater total in 1997.
And we can see from the state rainfall totals that January 2017 was nothing special:
HISTORICAL DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE
USA drought during the low-CO2 1930’s:
USA drought during 400ppm “unprecedented”-CO2 levels of 2017:
Drought – January 2017 | State of the Climate | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
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For the next few “Extreme Weather/Climate” categories, feel free to click on the links to read government data and peer-reviewed science sourced to unfold any concern(s) you may have…
HEATWAVES
Shock news : Australia has always had heatwaves | Climatism
SEA LEVEL RISE
NASA “Sea Level Rise” Fraud | Climatism
44th Pacific “Sinking Islands” Extortion Forum (COP21 Update 2015) | Climatism
If Sea Level Rise were such a threat, ask yourself one simple Q: Why would Barack Hussein Obama (spruiker-in-chief of climate change alarmism) purchase the Hawaii seaside mansion where Magnum PI was filmed?
While warning us of ‘rising oceans’ in SOTU, did Obama just buy a beachfront mansion? | Watts Up With That?
Maybe its because, outside of his eco-pantheist ideology and Leftist, wealth redistribution agenda, Obama too, knows very well that Islands like Hawaii “Shape-shift” i.e. they grow with Sea Level Rise. In fact, 80% of Island nations around the world are growing, not “Sinking” as climate activists and alarmists will have you believe.
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RECENT “EXTREME WEATHER” RELATED SCIENTIFIC STUDIES
China’s not so extreme weather study:
China’s weather now better
The biggest study of China’s extreme weather finds the frequency of hail storms, thunderstorms and high wind events has actually halved since 1960.
In one of the most comprehensive studies on trends in local severe weather patterns to date, an international team of researchers found that the frequency of hail storms, thunderstorms and high wind events has decreased by nearly 50 percent on average throughout China since 1960…
“Most of the data published on trends in severe weather has been incomplete or collected for a limited short period,” said Fuqing Zhang, professor of meteorology and atmospheric science and director, Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques, Penn State. “The record we used is, to the best of our knowledge, the largest, both in time scale and area of land covered.”
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/global-warming-helps-chinas-weather-now-better/news-story/12b5c26ab1a5f27fffc3b416f95cee7c
When will warmist scientists admit the apocalypse they predicted simply isn’t coming?
Oh and just as a side, Al Gore’s “Extreme Weather” poster child sufferers – POLAR BEARS – are doing more than fine…as CO2 rises!
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If we rely on the above scientific hard data and peer-reviewed evidence, it should hopefully become clearer that colourless, odourless, plant food and trace gas CO2 – the gas of life – does not control the climate or the weather.
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In my opinion if the temperature gradient between the polar regions and tropics were to increase because of polar cooling, expect to see more and genuine extreme weather occurrences. Ergo, has slight global warming since the 1970’s actually decreased the frequency and strength of extreme weather events? The above evidence strongly supports this case. Especially in the case of Northern Hemisphere Hurricanes, Tornadoes and drought.
Ironically and to this point, in 1974 climatologists blamed extreme weather on “Global Cooling”.
The panic was so real during the “Global Cooling” scare of the 1970’s that UN scientists wanted to melt the Arctic by spreading black soot on it!
02 Feb 1972 – Scientists fear for Arctic Sea ice – Trove
And today, the UN, all those expert climatologists and their sycophant media gleefully blame any extreme weather event, not on “global cooling” but now “global warming”. Nuff said.
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TO FINISH. A message, in their own words, from the promulgators of climate change fear, doom and gloom – the UN’s very own IPCC …
Direct from their IPCC SREX report released 2012 :
“We Do Not Know If The Climate Is Becoming More Extreme”
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Recommended / Related :
- It’s Time To Declare War On Global Warming Extremists | Climatism
- Global warmists trash our planet | Daily Mail – James Delingpole
- TIM FLANNERY – Epitome Of The Climate Scam | Climatism
- Fake News “Cooks” Guardian’s Climate Credibility | Climatism
- There Is No Climate Change Crisis | Climatism
- Why CSIRO and BoM Cannot Be Trusted On Anything “Climate Change” | Climatism
- NASA “Sea Level Rise” Fraud | Climatism
- “In Searching For A New Enemy To Unite Us, We Came Up With The Threat Of Global Warming” | Climatism
Steroids, Baseball and Climate Change
Posted: July 28, 2013 Filed under: Agenda 21, Alarmism, Climate, Climatism, ICLEI | Tags: Agenda 21, Alarmism, Alberta, Canada, Climate Change, Extreme weather, flood, ICLEI, IPCC Leave a commentICLEI Canada believe the difference between “normal” extreme weather and “climate change enhanced” extreme weather is anthropogenic “steroids”.
It’s mid-July [2013], and summer has already produced a number of very significant and newsworthy weather events. But can we blame climate change? Yes, but it isn’t as simple as saying that climate change caused any single event.
On June 20th, continued heavy rains in southern Alberta overwhelmed many streams and rivers emanating from the Rocky Mountain foothills, causing widespread flooding.
Of course, these types of extreme events have existed forever, and it would be incorrect to place all of the blame of these events on changing climates…The challenge is often explaining the difference between “normal” extreme weather and “climate change enhanced” extreme weather.
EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE CHANGE – ICLEI Canada
The flow rate of the Bow River in Calgary peaked at 1,500 cubic metres of water per second. Previous floods in the 1900s, 1930s and late 1800s were ‘worse’ in terms of river flow rate. Red Deer River flow rate peaked at 1,930 cms in 1915.
2013 Alberta floods were ‘worse’ due to the presence of a highly-developed city of over one million residents downstream. Thus, because of increased economic loss, the floods were naturally caused by human green-house gas emissions, and a climate on steroids.
Fortunately the IPCC can’t find the link between anthropogenic steroids and extreme weather, confirming “We do not know if the climate is becoming more extreme”
In any case, if extreme flooding is a concern, you can always take refuge on the 45th floor of a United Nations ICLEI Agenda 21 ‘Human Habitat Settlement Zone’ high-rise building. Coming to a ‘smart growth zone’ near you!
H/t to Brendan
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