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CLIMATE CHANGE : The Unsettled Science Of “Settled” Science

HistoryOfSettledScience - Climatism

History Of Settled Science


The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations
on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models
.”
– Prof. Chris Folland,
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

***

THE global warming climate change scare has absolutely nothing to do with the environment or “Saving The Planet”. Rather, its roots lie in a misanthropic agenda engineered by the environmental movement of the mid 1970’s, who realised that doing something about claimed man-made “global warming” would play to quite a number of the Left’s social agendas.

IN THEIR (UN IPCC) OWN WORDS:

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ENERGY rationing and the control of carbon dioxide, the direct byproduct of cheap, reliable hydrocarbon energy, has always been key to the Left’s Malthusian and misanthropic agenda of depopulation and deindustrialisation. A totalitarian ideology enforced through punitive emissions controls under the guise of “Saving The Planet”.

STANFORD University and The Royal Society’s resident global warming alarmist and population freak Paul R. Ehrlich spelled out in 1976 the Left’s anti-energy agenda that still underpins the current ‘climate change’ scare :

Giving society cheap, abundant energy would be the
equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun
.”
– Prof Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University/Royal Society fellow

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THE creator, fabricator and proponent of global warming alarmism Maurice Strong, founded UNEP and ‘science’ arm, the UN IPCC, under the premise of studying only human (CO2) driven causes of climate change.

STRONG and the UN’s charter and agenda was clearly laid out before the ‘science’ of climate change was butchered and tortured to fit the global warming narrative…

Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsiblity to bring that about?” – Maurice Strong, founder of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)

Current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the affluent middle class – involving high meat intake, use of fossil fuels, appliances, air-conditioning, and suburban housing – are not sustainable.” – Maurice Strong, Rio Earth Summit

It is the responsibility of each human being today to choose between the force of darkness and the force of light. We must therefore transform our attitudes, and adopt a renewed respect for the superior laws of Divine Nature.“ – Maurice Strong, first Secretary General of UNEP

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WHY CO2?

ATMOSPHERIC Physicist, MIT Professor of Meteorology and former IPCC lead author Richard S. Lindzen, examines the politics and ideology behind the CO2-centricity that drives the man-made climate change agenda.

LINDZEN’S summary goes to the very heart of why Carbon Dioxide has become the centre-piece of the ‘global’ climate debate:

“For a lot of people including the bureaucracy in Government and the environmental movement, the issue is power. It’s hard to imagine a better leverage point than carbon dioxide to assume control over a society. It’s essential to the production of energy, it’s essential to breathing. If you demonise it and gain control over it, you so-to-speak, control everything. That’s attractive to people. It’s been openly stated for over forty years that one should try to use this issue for a variety of purposes, ranging from North/South redistribution, to energy independence, to God knows what…”

•••

“CO2 for different people has different attractions. After all, what is it? – it’s not a pollutant, it’s a product of every living creature’s breathing, it’s the product of all plant respiration, it is essential for plant life and photosynthesis, it’s a product of all industrial burning, it’s a product of driving – I mean, if you ever wanted a leverage point to control everything from exhalation to driving, this would be a dream. So it has a kind of fundamental attractiveness to bureaucratic mentality.”

MORE : Bureaucratic Dioxide | Climatism

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SCIENCE Matters‘ Ron Clutz on the myth of CO2 as a significant driver of global warming climate change and our weather:

To believe humans are dangerously warming earth’s climate, you have to swallow a bunch of unbelievable notions.

  • You have to think the atmosphere drives temperature, instead of the ocean with 1000 times the heat capacity.
  • You have to disregard the sun despite its obvious effects from summer to winter and longer term.
  • You have to think CO2 drives radiative heat transfers, instead of H2O which does 95% of the radiative work.
  • You have to think rises in CO2 cause temperatures to rise, rather than the other way around.
  • You have to forget it was warmer than now in the Middle Ages, warmer still in the Roman era, and warmest of all during Minoan times.  And on and on.

The global warmist narrative is full of ideas upside down and backwards, including many reversals of cause and effect.

It is like a massive hot air balloon, so why doesn’t it deflate? Answer:  It is because so many interests are served by keeping it alive and pumping up public fears.

Self-Serving Global Warmism | Science Matters

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EQUILIBRIUM CLIMATE SENSITIVITY (ECS)

WE are constantly told by the Climate Crisis Industry that the “science is settled”. Yet, the main indicator of a so-called climate “crisis” – Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity or ECS – the hypothesised amount of temperature increase per doubling of CO2, keeps shrinking even as carbon dioxide rises.

CO2 is Life with the rub…

The Ever Changing “Settled” Science; How Can a “Settled” Science need Continual Updating?

The “Science” was “Settled” in 2000 CO2 Sensitivity 4.25°C

The “Science” was “Settled” in 2005 CO2 Sensitivity 3.75°C

The “Science” was “Settled” in 2010 CO2 Sensitivity 2.75°C

The “Science” was “Settled” in 2015 CO2 Sensitivity 0.50°C

(More)(Source)

The Ever Changing “Settled” Science; How Can a “Settled” Science need Continual Updating? – CO2 is Life

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OVERHEATED UN CLIMATE MODELS

THEN there are the failed CO2-centric UN CMIP5 climate models. Overheated climate models that do not accord with observed reality, and yet increase IPCC confidence in dangerous global warming despite ever-increasing divergence from satellite and weather-balloon data…

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JUST as ECS declines as CO2 increases it becomes harder to see how policy makers can justify the deliberate deindustrialisation of the Western world driven by draconian, UN climate policies based on overheated UN climate models, fear, funding and mass propaganda.

DO politicians even look at empirical data or “the science” anymore? Or does the wicked truth expose their scam, hindering globalist intentions?

THIS eco-scare is strong and will not die quickly. Too many jobs, reputations and egos are now at stake. And, access to unlimited “Save The Planet” taxpayer trillions, completely immune to oversight.

••• Read the rest of this entry »

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GLOBAL TEMPERATURE PLUNGE : Coolest September In The Last 10 Years


We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth,
Fmr President of the UN Foundation

***

GLOBAL atmospheric temperatures continue their rapid decline off the record heights of the 2016 super El Niño, despite record and rising CO2 emissions.

UAH global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for September, 2018 was +0.14°C, down from +0.19°C in August:

Latest Global Average Tropospheric Temperatures

Since 1979, NOAA satellites have been carrying instruments which measure the natural microwave thermal emissions from oxygen in the atmosphere. The intensity of the signals these microwave radiometers measure at different microwave frequencies is directly proportional to the temperature of different, deep layers of the atmosphere. Every month, John Christy and I update global temperature datasets that represent the piecing together of the temperature data from a total of fifteen instruments flying on different satellites over the years. A discussion of the latest version (6.0) of the dataset is located here.

The graph above represents the latest update; updates are usually made within the first week of every month. Contrary to some reports, the satellite measurements are not calibrated in any way with the global surface-based thermometer records of temperature. They instead use their own on-board precision redundant platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) calibrated to a laboratory reference standard before launch.

Latest Global Temps « Roy Spencer, PhD

 

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THE September anomaly represents a 0.72°C drop since 2016 super El Niño heights, bringing temps down now to ~1988 levels.

DON’T expect the mainstream media to report in this anytime soon. They are only concerned about hot and climbing temperatures to push their  global warming climate change agenda.

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CO2 CONCENTRATION Vs TEMPS – Correlation?

 

CO2 Vs Temp Correlation 1979 - SEP 2018 - CLIMATISM

CO2 Vs Temp Correlation 1979 – SEP 2018 – CLIMATISM

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GLOBAL TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS – You Be The Judge!

Satellites Vs Land-Based Thermometers?

satellite-v-thermometer-628x353

Satellites Vs Thermometers?

SATELLITES

NASA’s MSU satellite measurement systems, generate the RSS and UAH datasets, which measure the average temperature of every cubic inch of the lower atmosphere, the exact place where global warming theory is meant to occur.

BEFORE 2016, UAH and RSS both tracked closely showing very little warming in their data sets which led to the identification and validation of “the pause” in global warming which has since become the subject of much research and debate in peer-reviewed scientific journals.

From the RSS website:

“The simulation as a whole are predicting too much warming” – RSS

HOWEVER, by 2016, Carl Mears, who is the chief scientist for RSS (Remote Sensing Systems) and who has used the pejorative “denialist” in various correspondence, decided that “the pause” was not a good look for the global warming narrative so RSS was massively adjusted upwards, conveniently eliminating “the pause” in the RSS dataset.

MEARS’ objectivity towards the business of global temperature data collection and reporting can be found in his commentary on his website:

MEARS then published a paper claiming that new and improved adjustments have “found” that missing warming.

Mears, C., and F. Wentz, 2016: Sensitivity of satellite-derived tropospheric
temperature trends to the diurnal cycle adjustment. J. Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLID-
15-0744.1, in press.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0744.1?af=R

THE result…
Differences between the old version and new version of RSS:

(Data via WUWT)

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UAH NASA SATELLITE (Featured)

UAH is the satellite data set featured in this post and is jointly run by Dr. John R. Christy –  Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science and Director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. And Roy Spencer Ph.D. Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.

SPENCER commentary on the divergence between RSS and UAH post “adjustment”:

“We have a paper in peer review with extensive satellite dataset comparisons to many balloon datasets and reanalyses. These show that RSS diverges from these and from UAH, showing more warming than the other datasets between 1990 and 2002 – a key period with two older MSU sensors both of which showed signs of spurious warming not yet addressed by RSS. I suspect the next chapter in this saga is that the remaining radiosonde datasets that still do not show substantial warming will be the next to be “adjusted” upward.

The bottom line is that we still trust our methodology. But no satellite dataset is perfect, there are uncertainties in all of the adjustments, as well as legitimate differences of opinion regarding how they should be handled.

Also, as mentioned at the outset, both RSS and UAH lower tropospheric trends are considerably below the average trends from the climate models.

And that is the most important point to be made.”

Comments on the New RSS Lower Tropospheric Temperature Dataset « Roy Spencer, PhD

(Climatism bolds)

* Read the rest of this entry »


THE Greenland Hockey Stick


We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations
on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models
.”
– Prof. Chris Folland,
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

***

CHALLENGING times ahead for the Climate Crisis Industry with another icon of Armageddon – Greenland – defying climate model forecasts and the usual swill of dire prognostications from the mainstream media.

CNN recently published an Uber-sexy photographic essay on the great ice continent, “What it’s like at the ground zero of climate change”.

THE photographs are incredible and well worth a look. The written content, definitely not up to the same standard. Shock news. CNN’s Kyle Almond, flooding the story with the same emotional, hyper-alarmist AGW talking points that aren’t matching, anymore, what’s really going on at “ground zero”, according to the latest hard data from NSIDC and DMI.

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GLACIER CALVING

THE main thrust of the piece is of calving glaciers.

But when a glacier breaks up, the images can be breathtaking — and a sobering reminder of the trouble we are in.”

MEMO to Kyle: Glacier calving is an entirely natural process, reflecting the very health of a glacier. The more snow that falls, the more icebergs come out the other end!

Many glaciers terminate at oceans or freshwater lakes which results naturally[5] with the calving of large numbers of icebergs. Calving of Greenland‘s glaciers produce 12,000 to 15,000 icebergs each year alone.[6]

Ice calving – Wikipedia

ELLA Gilbert from the British Antarctic Survey who is often asked why icebergs break away…

“It’s complicated,” she explains. “The region is clearly undergoing a lot of change but you can’t just say ‘it was the climate’. Iceberg calving is a natural process anyway. If you put more snow in at one end, it has to come out the other end as icebergs.”

The ‘monster’ iceberg: What happened next? – BBC News

SEE : MEMO TO THE MEDIA : Glacier Calving Is A Natural Process | Climatism

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ARCTIC TEMPS

ANOTHER common talking point used by Almond and fellow alarmists is that the Arctic “is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet.”

HadCRUT4 shows no trend in warming over the past 12 years. With temps as warm in the 1930’s and 1940’s.

ARCTIC Temps - HadCRUT4

ARCTIC Temps – HadCRUT4

ARCTIC temps were below the average nearly everyday during this years summer melt season and are now back below freezing.

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THE NEW HOCKEY STICK!

WHAT definitely wasn’t included in Almond’s propaganda piece was the sharp increase in net ice mass that has been trending for around a decade.

Read the rest of this entry »


DEATH SPIRAL DENIED : No Change In Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Or Volume Over The Past 12 Years


ARCTIC

AS the annual Arctic melt season comes to a close, hopes of an “Ice-free” Arctic for “Death Spiral” enthusiasts are once again denied as sea-ice remains stubbornly stable for the twelfth year in a row.

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GREENLAND

GREENLAND, also not cooperating with climate model predictions or the prognostications of climate catastrophists.

via Real Science :

Greenland Gains Huge Amounts Of Ice For The Second Year In A Row

Early in life I had noticed that no event is ever correctly reported in a newspaper.

George Orwell

Summer is over, and Greenland’s surface has gained 510 billion tons of ice over the past year – about 40% above normal.  The surface mass budget is snow/ice accumulation minus melt.  It does not include ice loss caused by glaciers flowing to the sea, which is very difficult to measure, and is driven by processes which have little to do with the current climate.

 

Last year Greenland gained a little more ice, about 50% above normal.

 

The trajectories were very different last year and this year, but the final result was about the same.

2018-08-31052405_shadow-1024x543

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Budget: DMI (2017/18)

 

Lining the two graphs up side by side,   you can see the more than one trillion tons of ice which Greenland’s surface has gained over the past two years.

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Budget- DMI

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Budget: DMI (Split)

 

Last year, the Danish Meteorological Institute reported on the gain in ice, and blamed it on Hurricane Nicole. I wonder what their excuse will be this year?

 

Even NOAA begrudgingly admitted that the huge ice gain was a “small increase.”

 

Meanwhile, the usual fraudsters in the press continue to report Greenland is melting and we are all about to die.

Greenland Gains Huge Amounts Of Ice For The Second Year In A Row | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog

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THE ARCTIC, yet another icon of global warming climate change doom, set to join the graveyard of alarmist tosh.

•••

SEE also :

Read the rest of this entry »


DISGRACE : Shameless Link Between Suicide And Climate Change, Circulating The Mainstream Media’s Echo Chamber

THE Death of Mainstream Media - Suicide blog CLIMATISM.png


SINCE Climatism reported on the lazy and disrespectful link between suicide and climate change two days ago, a study has now surfaced out of the warmist, Nature Climate Change…

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NOT surprisingly, the mainstream media has jumped all over this single study like a pack of hungry wolves, in a blatant attempt to link their emotionally-charged climate change cause with the genuinely emotional and tragic issue of suicide.

“The study, published today in the journal Nature Climate Change, concluded that projected temperature increases over the next few decades could lead to an additional 21,000 suicides in the United States and Mexico by 2050.”

Warming climate will likely boost suicide rates worldwide | Berkeley News

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YET another study using the widely criticised UN IPCC CMIP5 climate models that do not accord with the stubborn observed reality of the current and inconvenient ~20 year global warming “pause”

CURRENT UN CMIP5 CLIMATE MODEL PREDICTIONS Vs TEMPS

See : 100% Of Climate Models Prove that 97% of Climate Scientists Were Wrong! | Climatism

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THE STUDY

PUBLISHED yesterday in the warmist journal, Nature climate change

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THE studies “could, maybe, might” findings are based on the highest emissions scenario, RCP8.5, pushed out to the arbitrary, unaccountable and ‘sciencey’ date of 2050…

“We project that unmitigated climate change (RCP8.5) could result in a combined 9–40 thousand additional suicides (95% confidence interval) across the United States and Mexico by 2050, representing a change in suicide rates comparable to the estimated impact of economic recessions, suicide prevention programmes or gun restriction laws.”

THE study also took into account seasonal variation, levels of poverty, the news of celebrity suicides and even depressive social media commentary that can lead to more death…

“Analysis of depressive language in >600 million social media updates further suggests that mental well-being deteriorates during warmer periods.”

Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico | Nature Climate Change

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THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA ECHO CHAMBER…

WHAT level of responsibility is the mainstream media itself willing to accept for stoking “global warming” fears – flogging every heatwave or extreme weather event leading to the collective mass hysteria played out on social media?

Read the rest of this entry »


OCEAN Air Temps Keep Cool

CURRENT ocean air temps the same as 1995 and declining. Definitely not what the climate models, nor ‘experts’ predicted! Ouch.

Science Matters

Presently sea surface temperatures (SST) are the best available indicator of heat content gained or lost from earth’s climate system.  Enthalpy is the thermodynamic term for total heat content in a system, and humidity differences in air parcels affect enthalpy.  Measuring water temperature directly avoids distorted impressions from air measurements.  In addition, ocean covers 71% of the planet surface and thus dominates surface temperature estimates.  Eventually we will likely have reliable means of recording water temperatures at depth.

Recently, Dr. Ole Humlum reported from his research that air temperatures lag 2-3 months behind changes in SST.  He also observed that changes in CO2 atmospheric concentrations lag behind SST by 11-12 months.  This latter point is addressed in a previous post Who to Blame for Rising CO2?

The June update to HadSST3 will appear later this month, but in the meantime we can look at lower troposphere temperatures (TLT) from UAHv6…

View original post 404 more words


ICE, ICE BABY! Huge Expansion Of Thick Arctic Ice Over The Last Ten Years

ARTCIC ALARM - Huge Increase In Ice Past 10 Years.png


YOU will not see this inconvenient empirical data anywhere on the climate-theory-obsessed mainstream media, because it’s good news about the Arctic, and that directly contradicts their relentless bombardment of doom and gloom about Arctic sea-ice and its purported “Death Spiral”.

TO report the massive expansion of thick, multi-year ice that has built up over the past ten years threatens both media and alarmist scientists – egos, jobs, reputations and government (taxpayer) grant money…

Via Tony Heller’s Real Climate Science :

Scary Times For Climate Alarmists

There has been a huge expansion of thick ice over the last ten years.

ArticIce-2008-2018

2008    2018

Scary Times For Climate Alarmists | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog

Read the rest of this entry »