Posted: December 7, 2015 | Author: Jamie Spry | Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Climate Change, Climate Fraud, Climatism, COP21, Data Tampering, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Global Temperature, NASA, Satellite Data, UAH | Tags: Alarmism debunked, Climate Change, COP21, Data Fraud, Data Tampering, Dr Roy Spencer, Empirical Evidence, GISS, Global Temperature, Global Warming "Pause", RSS Satellite Data, Satellite Data, UAH |
Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to
know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” – UN IPCC
Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical
chemist.
“It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of
scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” – U.S Government
Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of
NOAA.
“The whole climate change issue is about to fall apart — Heads will roll!” – South African UN Scientist Dr. Will Alexander, April 12, 2009
“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.” – Nobel Prize Winner for
Physics, Ivar Giaever.
•••
Dr Roy Spencer, former senior scientist for Climate studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, and current principal research scientist for the University of Alabama in Huntsville, reports that 2015 will not be “The Hottest Year Ever” despite a strong El Niño …. and even stronger hot-air from the climate alarm industry.
2015 will be the 3rd Warmest Year in the Satellite Record
December 3rd, 2015
Way back in June, John Christy and I called 2015 as being the warmest year on record…in the surface thermometer data. Given the strong El Nino in progress, on top of the official thermometer data warming trend, this seemed pretty obvious.
Of course, everyone has their opinions regarding how good the thermometer temperature trends are, with periodic adjustments that almost always make the present warmer or the past colder.
But I’m not going there today…
Instead, I’m going to talk about our only truly global dataset: the satellite data. With the November 2015 data now in, it’s pretty clear that in our UAH analysis 2015 will only be the 3rd warmest year since the satellite record began in 1979. Based upon my calculations, this will be true no matter what happens in December (barring Armageddon).
Here are the yearly rankings, for which I assumed the December 2015 anomaly will be +0.40 C (click for full-size):
The years are displayed with the warmest on the left, and the coldest on the right. The color coding and arrows have to do with El Nino years…
Read on …
2015 will be the 3rd Warmest Year in the Satellite Record « Roy Spencer, PhD
•••
UAH and RSS
With the ever increasing divergence of surface temperatures (NASA GISS) from satellite ones (UAH/RSS), and the subsequent divergence of overheated climate models (IPCC CMIP5) to observed reality, it is worth some background on the atmospheric temperature measurement systems used to measure the temperature of the lower troposphere – the exact place where global warming theory is meant to occur and be measured :
Roy Spencer :
…if for no other reason than this: thermometers cannot measure global averages — only satellites can. The satellite instruments measure nearly every cubic kilometer – hell, every cubic inch — of the lower atmosphere on a daily basis. You can travel hundreds if not thousands of kilometers without finding a thermometer nearby.
The two main research groups tracking global lower-tropospheric temperatures (our UAH group, and the Remote Sensing Systems [RSS] group) show 2014 lagging significantly behind 2010 and especially 1998:
With only 3 months left in the year, there is no realistic way for 2014 to set a record in the satellite data.
Granted, the satellites are less good at sampling right near the poles, but compared to the very sparse data from the thermometer network we are in fat city coverage-wise with the satellite data.
In my opinion, though, a bigger problem than the spotty sampling of the thermometer data is the endless adjustment game applied to the thermometer data. The thermometer network is made up of a patchwork of non-research quality instruments that were never made to monitor long-term temperature changes to tenths or hundredths of a degree, and the huge data voids around the world are either ignored or in-filled with fictitious data.
Furthermore, land-based thermometers are placed where people live, and people build stuff, often replacing cooling vegetation with manmade structures that cause an artificial warming (urban heat island, UHI) effect right around the thermometer. The data adjustment processes in place cannot reliably remove the UHI effect because it can’t be distinguished from real global warming.
Satellite microwave radiometers, however, are equipped with laboratory-calibrated platinum resistance thermometers, which have demonstrated stability to thousandths of a degree over many years, and which are used to continuously calibrate the satellite instruments once every 8 seconds. The satellite measurements still have residual calibration effects that must be adjusted for, but these are usually on the order of hundredths of a degree, rather than tenths or whole degrees in the case of ground-based thermometers.
And, it is of continuing amusement to us that the global warming skeptic community now tracks the RSS satellite product rather than our UAH dataset. RSS was originally supposed to provide a quality check on our product (a worthy and necessary goal) and was heralded by the global warming alarmist community. But since RSS shows a slight cooling trend since the 1998 super El Nino, and the UAH dataset doesn’t, it is more referenced by the skeptic community now. Too funny.
In the meantime, the alarmists will continue to use the outdated, spotty, and heavily-massaged thermometer data to support their case. For a group that trumpets the high-tech climate modeling effort used to guide energy policy — models which have failed to forecast (or even hindcast!) the lack of warming in recent years — they sure do cling bitterly to whatever will support their case.
As British economist Ronald Coase once said, “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.”
So, why are the surface thermometer data used to the exclusion of our best technology — satellites — when tracking global temperatures? Because they better support the narrative of a dangerously warming planet.
Except, as the public can tell, the changes in global temperature aren’t even on their radar screen (sorry for the metaphor).
Why 2014 Won’t Be the Warmest Year on Record « Roy Spencer, PhD
•••
UPDATE
The temperature divergence, this century, between NASA GISS temp (land based) and RSS satellite data, is mind-blowing.
Looks like someone is adjusting the curve to fit the ‘global warming’ narrative. Gavin? Tom?
Paul Homewood from NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT :
Between 1979 and 2001, the RSS satellite data increased at virtually the same rate as GISS. Since then, there has been a massive divergence, with GISS claiming that the pace of increase has barely reduced from the earlier period.
In contrast RSS (and also UAH) confirm that, if anything, temperatures have been dropping.
Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs
It’s time to call the fraud squad in.
•••
Related :
- The robust Pause resists a robust el Niño Still no global warming at all for 18 years 9 months | Climatism
- RSS Continues To Diverge From GISS | Climatism
- The Pause draws blood – A new record Pause length: no warming for 18 years 7 months | Climatism
- Yes, there is a pause, and the Washington Post now admits it. UPDATE: But not Obama | Climatism
- 97% of climate models say that 97% of climate scientists are wrong | Climatism
- Biggest Fraud In History – Perpetrated By Tom Karl And Gavin Schmidt | Climatism
- Government Scientists Continue To Ramp Up Their Criminal Activity Ahead Of Paris | Climatism
Climate alarmist industry headlines “Hottest Year Ever” :
- 2015 Likely to Be Hottest Year Ever Recorded – The New York Times
- WMO: 2015 likely to be Warmest on Record, 2011-2015 Warmest Five Year Period | Media Centre
- U.N. Says 2015 Has Been Hottest Year On Record – Fortune
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Posted: December 1, 2015 | Author: Jamie Spry | Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, COP21, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Govt Climate Agenda, NASA, NOAA, Polar Bears, Religion, UN, UNEP, UNFCCC, Wealth Redistribution | Tags: Climate Change, COP21, Paris, UN, UNEP, wealth redistribution |
Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to
know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” – UN IPCC
Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical
chemist.
“It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of
scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” – U.S Government
Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of
NOAA.
“The whole climate change issue is about to fall apart — Heads will roll!” – South African UN Scientist Dr. Will Alexander, April 12, 2009
“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.” – Nobel Prize Winner for
Physics, Ivar Giaever.
•••
by JAMES DELINGPOLE 30 Nov 2015 | Breitbart
Over the next 10 days, 140 world leaders – including Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and David Cameron – will descend on Paris to join 40,000 delegates at the UN’s COP21 climate conference.
Here is why they might just as well not have bothered.
1. There has been no ‘global warming’ since 1997
So, of all the children round the world currently being taught in schools about the perils of man-made global warming, not a single one has lived through a period in which the planet was actually warming.
2. The polar bears are doing just great.
As they have been for the last five decades, during which time their population has increased roughly five-fold. So why does the IUCN still classify them as “vulnerable”? Because the environmentalists needed a cute, fluffy white poster-child for their “the animals are dying and it’s all our fault” campaign, and the snail darter and the California delta smelt just didn’t cut it. So various tame conservation biologists came up with all sorts of nonsense about how polar bear populations were dwindling and how the melting of the ice floes would jeopardize their ability to feed themselves etc. How can you tell a conservation biologist is lying? When his lips move.
3. Antarctica is growing.
According to the greenies, this just wasn’t meant to happen. But it is. Even NASA admits this.
4. The Maldives aren’t sinking
Or, if they are, their government is responding in a very odd way. Just a few years back, they were staging photos of their Cabinet meeting underwater to symbolize how threatened they were by “climate change” – a problem that could only be cured, apparently, with the donation of large sums of guilt money from rich Western industrialized nations. But a few months ago they completed work on their 11th international airport. So that all the climate refugees caused by global warming can escape quickly, presumably.
5. Ocean acidification is a myth
If I were an eco-Nazi I would seriously think about killing myself at this point. Ocean acidification was supposed to be their Siegfried Line – the final line of defense if, as has grown increasingly obvious over the last few years, “anthropogenic global warming” theory proved to be a busted flush. But it turns out that ocean acidification is as big a myth as man-made climate change. a) it’s based on dubious, possibly even fraudulent, research and b) if anyone’s acidifying the ocean it’s those wretched bloody coral reefs…
6. The alarmist climate scientists are talentless low-lives who cannot be trusted
Possibly there are exceptions to this rule, somewhere. But just look at NASA GISS, NOAA and the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia/Hadley Centre at the Met Office – three of the main organizations responsible for maintaining the world’s temperature data sets.
NASA has been caught red handed turning cooling trends into warming trends. NOAA is currently under Congressional investigation for its mendacious, politicised attempts to pretend that the “Pause” in global warming doesn’t exist. The CRU was ground zero of theClimategate scandal. The Met Office is a joke. Yet these shysters have the gall to demand that the world’s leaders take urgent action on the basis of their dodgy data.
7. Winter Is Coming
Sunspot activity is diminishing in a manner worryingly similar to that experienced during the Maunder Minimum (1645 to 1715) when ice fairs were staged on the River Thames and the Dalton Minimum (1790 to 1830) which gave us Napoleon’s retreat from Moscow and the Year Without A Summer. Some scientists are predicting the imminent return of a Little Ice Age.
8. CO2 is greening the planet
The Sahel region in Africa is getting greener and more fertile. This is something we should be celebrating, not trying clumsily and expensively to prevent.
9. There has been no increase in “extreme weather events”.
Who says so? The IPCC in its most recent Assessment Report. Droughts, heatwaves, heavy rain events, cyclones, storms: they just haven’t increased in the alarmists assured us they would.
10. People are losing interest in global warming.
A) they don’t believe it’s a real threat, b) they keep being reminded of things that ARE real threats
11. $1.5 trillion is a lot of money to pay every year for a problem that doesn’t exist
This, according to Climate Change Business Journal, is how much it costs every year to “combat climate change.” $1,500,000,000,000 may not sound like a lot of money when the world’s polar bears, not to mention “the children of the future” are at stake. But you’d be surprised: spend $1,500,000,000,000 here and $1,500,000,000,000 there and pretty soon you’re talking serious money.
12. It will make (almost) no difference
If all the world’s leading nations stick to the carbon-reduction commitments they will make in Paris this week, then they will stave off “global warming” by the end of this century by 0.170 degrees C.
Oh – and that’s the optimistic scenario, calculated by Bjorn Lomborg, assuming that countries like, say, China don’t lie or cheat about how much CO2 they’re burning secretly.
His more pessimistic – ie more realistic – scenario is that the best we can hope for is a reduction in global warming by the end of the century of 0.048 degrees C.
This temperature reduction – five hundredths of one degree – is so small as to be almost immeasurable. But if you want to know what it feels like, Willis Eschenbach has done the calculations. It’s the equivalent of walking five metres higher up a mountain. Or, if you prefer, climbing two flights of stairs.
And there you have it: the lunacy of the Paris climate conference in one sentence: $1.5 trillion every year till the end of the century to effect the equivalent of walking to your bedroom.
Twelve Reasons Why The Paris Climate Talks Are A Total Waste | Breitbart
•••
See also :
- MUST READ ‘Science’ : 22 Very Inconvenient Climate Truths On Global Warming | Climatism
COP21 related :
- Paris COP21 : Much that passes as idealism is disguised hatred or disguised love of power | Climatism
- Paris Climate Criminals Ignore Record Arctic Ice Growth | Climatism
- COP21: Public support for tough climate deal ‘declines’ | Climatism
- Another climate scare debunked. Professor urges calm | Climatism
- Biggest Fraud In History – Perpetrated By Tom Karl (NOAA) And Gavin Schmidt (NASA) | Climatism
- MUST READ : Global Warming Insanity On Steroids! | Climatism
UN (Paris COP21) related :
- Shock news : UN Carbon Regime Would Devastate Humanity | Climatism
- Shock News : UN Wants To Ban Private Property And Create “Human Habitat Settlement Zones” | Climatism
- UN Climate Chief Says Communism Is Best To Fight Global Warming | Climatism
- Shock news : The UN’s Real Agenda Is A New World Order Under Its Control | Climatism
- “In Searching For A New Enemy To Unite Us, We Came Up With The Threat Of Global Warming” | Climatism
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Posted: November 30, 2015 | Author: Jamie Spry | Filed under: Climatism, COP21, Eco-Activists, Ecofascism, Green Agenda, UN, UNEP, UNFCCC | Tags: climate activism, Climate Change, COP21, Paris, UN, UNEP, UNFCCC, Violence |
“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.“
– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation
“Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the
industrialized civilizations collapse?
Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?”
– Maurice Strong,
founder of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
The (now standard) violence perpetrated by Climate Change activists at the UN’s latest climate boondoggle in Paris, is further proof that Left-wing ideology is the natural home of the barbarian.
The mob violence and vicious hatred of the modern Leftist (Climate activist) exposes the sham behind such preachers of peace, tolerance and ‘climate justice’.
Bertrand Russell is right :
Much that passes as idealism is disguised hatred or disguised love of power.
A frightening thought is that these Leftist ‘ideologues’ are of the very same tribe that we are to entrust with global energy policy.
•••
via Andrew Bolt | Herald Sun :
Think globally, arrest locally
France puts global warming alarmists under house arrest, having worked out that they’re actually a menace. Just 24 so far, but it’s a start:
French climate change activists have been placed under house arrest ahead of the opening of the UN climate change conference in Paris …
Green groups have described the move as “an abuse of power” but the French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said the activists were suspected of planning violent protests.
“These 24 people have been placed under house arrest because they have been violent during demonstrations in the past and because they have said they would not respect the state of emergency,” he said.
They must remain in their home towns, report to the local police three times a day and abide by a nightly curfew until December 12, when the climate change conference winds up.
UPDATE
Global warming protesters in Paris show their commitment to a better word by trying to smash police with rocks:
(Via Tim Blair.)
•••
UPDATE
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop :
Paris gets the party started #COP21
The latest last chance to save the world has begun, with just 200+ arrests so far.
Here we go again, the biggest names in the political and climate world are gathering to pretend that they are intent on saving the world again. Quite simply the Oscars of virtue signalling.
Yet its is (almost) set in stone that this conference is set to fail in its primary objective. That is, to force rich countries to quietly destroy their economies and for the poor economies, with the highest death rates, to reject energy & prosperity.
The Pointman has delved into the details of the Bonn preconference conference and assures us this event is set to fail. Meanwhile there is a timely reminder in a guest post at Bishop Hill on the genuine problem of extreme poverty.
What sets COP events out from the rest is of course the side events, the preening, posing, tears and tantrums. We’ve already had #birthmark. Useful idiots tattooing the CO2ppm of their brithday. #Climatemarch, Some people, led by famous people, waving banners demanding: blue sky, stop climate change, stop sea level rise….
Read on …
•••
Related :
- Paris Climate Criminals Ignore Record Arctic Ice Growth | Climatism
- COP21: Public support for tough climate deal ‘declines’ | Climatism
- Another climate scare debunked. Professor urges calm | Climatism
UN (Paris COP21) related :
- MUST READ : Global Warming Insanity On Steroids! | Climatism
- Shock news : UN Carbon Regime Would Devastate Humanity | Climatism
- Shock News : UN Wants To Ban Private Property And Create “Human Habitat Settlement Zones” | Climatism
- UN Climate Chief Says Communism Is Best To Fight Global Warming | Climatism
- Shock news : The UN’s Real Agenda Is A New World Order Under Its Control | Climatism
- “In Searching For A New Enemy To Unite Us, We Came Up With The Threat Of Global Warming” | Climatism
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Posted: November 28, 2015 | Author: Jamie Spry | Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Climate models, Climatism, COP21, Dud predictions, Fact Check, Satellite Data, Socialism, Sustainability, The Pause, UN, UNEP, UNFCCC | Tags: "The Pause", Climate Change, COP21, El Nino, Global Warming "Pause", Road To Paris, UN, UNEP, WMO |
“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.“
– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation
“Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the
industrialized civilizations collapse?
Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?”
– Maurice Strong,
founder of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
•••
via Andrew Bolt :
Professor Michael Asten urges calm – and a bit of honesty in the warming debate :
UN climate agency is exaggerating the effects of El Nino
- THE AUSTRALIAN
- NOVEMBER 28, 2015 12:00AM
The UN climate agency, the World Meteorological Organisation, has predictably hyped the global warming associated with this El Nino to encourage political leaders to action in next week’s Paris climate conference (”UN tips 2015 as hottest year”, 26/11).
However, its press release overlooks the full WMO discussion which notes that this El Nino is similar to three significant events in 1972-73, 1982-83 and 1997-98. It is not an unprecedented event, and past experience shows that prediction of the progress of El Ninos is notoriously difficult. The WMO quotes only surface temperature data, which may be subject to upward biases from meteorological stations sited in cities and ships that are thermal sources. The two data sets of lower atmosphere temperatures as measured globally using weather balloons and satellites were not used by the WMO, but they show a less alarming result — there is no upward statistical trend in global temperatures over the past 18 years, a feature much discussed in scientific journals as “the pause”.
Empirical scientists should be alarmed that while the most commonly quoted climate models predict a global temperature increase of 3C per century over this time, it is not happening. Rather than being panicked by the WMO press release, Malcolm Turnbull and Greg Hunt and their opposite numbers represented in Paris would serve us well by pausing their deliberations until science delivers a global temperature model consistent with measurement.
•••
“The Pause” related :
- The Pause draws blood – A new record Pause length: no warming for 18 years 7 months | Climatism
- Establishing Propaganda Is Vital For Climate Action | Climatism
UN (Paris COP21) related :
- MUST READ : Global Warming Insanity On Steroids! | Climatism
- Shock news : UN Carbon Regime Would Devastate Humanity | Climatism
- Shock News : UN Wants To Ban Private Property And Create “Human Habitat Settlement Zones” | Climatism
- UN Climate Chief Says Communism Is Best To Fight Global Warming | Climatism
- Shock news : The UN’s Real Agenda Is A New World Order Under Its Control | Climatism
- “In Searching For A New Enemy To Unite Us, We Came Up With The Threat Of Global Warming” | Climatism
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