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GAS (fossil fuels) needed for low-carbon targets says National Grid

AMUSES me every time: fossil fuels needed to reduce fossil fuel emissions to meet anti-fossil fuel Paris commitments. 🤦‍♂️

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Bit by bit, some reality appears to be intruding into the make believe world of the Climate Change Act:

image

No credible scenario’ exists for hitting the UK’s 2050 decarbonisation targets without continued reliance on gas, the National Grid has warned.

In a new report, entitled The Future of Gas: How gas can support a low carbon future’, the grid says that it is not feasible to switch over to electric heating on the scale required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 80 per cent of 1990 levels by the middle of this century.

To fill the gap required to meet peak heating demand during the winter with electricity would require a seven-fold increase in generation capacity.

It says that while electricity demand currently peaks at around 60 GW, up to 350 GW of electricity would be required during winter cold snaps.

“Electrifying heating would therefore require enormous…

View original post 451 more words

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ENERGY Prices Double In A Year In Victoria And South Australia!

DAN Andrews Vic PM

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews. Picture: AFP

WELCOME to Chairman Dan’s unreliable-energy ‘devolution’! Expect more skyrocketing electricity prices, blackouts and load-shedding as Australia’s virtue-signalling, climate theory-obsessed politicians continue their jihad against what was Australia’s once proud boast – cheap, reliable, efficient baseload power.

LATEST shock report on Australia’s southern states skyrocketing power prices via The Australian (Climatism bolds and links added):

***

AVERAGE wholesale energy prices in Victoria and South Australia have more than doubled since this time last year, as experts warn that blackouts and supply issues are likely to increase as state governments chase ­aggressive ­renewable energy ­targets.

More than 2000 Victorian households remained without power yesterday after two days of heat triggered equipment failures and blackouts, opening up distributors to compensation claims.

The mass outages affected more than 60,000 residents, some of whom were cut off for more than 28 hours.

The outages struck as new data showed the average wholesale energy price in Victoria climbed to $139 this month, up from $62 in January last year. In South Australia, the wholesale average price for January climbed to almost $170, up from $84 a year ago, whereas prices fell in NSW and Queensland to about $75.

The pricing data has angered energy experts, who say blackouts and supply ­issues are likely to increase and prices are likely to rise as the Victorian and South Australian governments pursue renewable energy targets without prioritising power sources that can supply baseload power.

Grattan Institute energy ­director Tony Wood said Sunday’s and Monday’s blackouts and high pricing showed that the state had botched its energy transition program by allowing baseload power sources — such as the Hazelwood power station — to be replaced by renewables, which delivered intermittent power.

“We’re dealing with a complex transition and it hasn’t been ­managed very well so far,” Mr Wood said. “That’s why we’ve seen local outages and high prices on the weekend, and that’s the reason why wholesale prices are substantially higher this year than last year.

It’s a reflection of a failed policy. We’re transitioning away from centralised, cheap but dirty power stations, but we’re not ­replacing these stations with sources that are just as stable.”

Power Pain.jpg

The Andrews government last year broke away from other states and territories by instituting its own Victorian Renewable Energy Target, with a plan for renewables to power 40 per cent of the state’s energy needs by 2025.

Mr Wood said the energy supply could get patchier and the state could emerge as a net importer of electricity as the government replaced coal-fired power stations with solar and wind and other intermittent power sources, which did not fire 24 hours a day.

Federal Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg confirmed that the weekend power outages were the result of distribution rather than supply issues, but said the state government needed to do more to boost reliability.

He urged Victorian Premier Daniel ­Andrews to rethink the ­renewable energy target while branding South Australia’s renewables plan an experiment gone “horribly wrong”.

“Reliability standards for networks are set by state governments,” Mr Frydenberg said. “AEMO (Australian Energy Market Operator) have highlighted that supply in Victoria is tight and that is why we have called upon the Andrews government to drop its reckless state-based renewable energy targets and mindless bans on gas.

“Jay Weatherill’s ‘big experiment’ has gone horribly wrong. South Australia has the highest prices and the least stable energy system in the country and, despite the bravado in the lead-up to summer, their energy problems remain. Just a couple of weeks ago, South Australia’s prices reached $14,200 a megawatt hour, while at the same time they were $89 a MWh in NSW and $85 MWh in Queensland.

“The wind turbines, which can produce 100 per cent of energy on one day and zero on another, were not blowing when needed most, providing less than 5 per cent of power and Jay Weatherill’s big battery less than 1 per cent.”

Australian Power Project chief executive Nathan Vass warned that Victoria’s energy supply with a larger proportion of renewables likely would have buckled under conditions such as those of Sunday night.

“Batteries and solar would not have saved Victoria as over 17,000 Victorians had no power throughout the night, when the sun isn’t shining,” Mr Vass said.

“Pairing renewables with battery storage wouldn’t have done much to alleviate the blackout. By way of example, the Tesla battery facility in South Australia only provides power for an hour to 30,000 homes.”

Release of the wholesale pricing data in South Australia — and data showing South Australia still has the highest prices in the National Electricity Market — prompted state opposition energy spokesman Dan van Holst Pellekaan to savage a claim by Mr Weatherill that his $550 million “self-sufficient” energy plan was producing the lowest power prices in the national market.

“South Australians are furious about the outrageous price of electricity they pay and tired of the Weatherill government’s refusal to accept responsibility,” Mr van Holst Pellekaan said.

SA Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis said wholesale power prices were “notoriously volatile”. “Since August, wholesale power prices in South Australia have been consistently cheaper than Victoria, and in September and October, SA had the cheapest wholesale prices of mainland states in the National Electricity Market,” he said.

In Victoria, Mr Andrews blamed the outages on the Coalition’s decision to privatise the state’s energy assets in the 1990s. “Fact is, there was more than enough power being generated to meet the demand yesterday — but the private companies and their distribution systems failed yet again,” he said on Twitter.

Mr Andrews said he would push for distributors to pay compensation to households that were left for long periods without power.

Wholesale energy prices double in a year in Victoria and South Australia | The Australian

•••

TELLING observations of VIC / SA demand during the peak of the energy meltdown on Sunday 28th at 15:30…

Tomfoolery2007 :

I captured the generation chart at at 15.30 Sunday. Victoria not meeting demand… Note: SA pumping out 199MW of Diesel Gen, Battery useless at 1MW…!

SA generation chart 15-30 Sunday.jpg

NOTE “Liquid Fuel”. This relates to the $360 million worth of “green” diesel generators imported by Jay Weatherill’s SA government to cover up its renewables debacle…

DIESEL – Keeping South Australia’s Lights On Til The Next Election!

AS for Elon Musk’s giant toxic battery pack boondoggle…the numbers don’t lie (1MW for another ~$200 million of taxpayer hard-earned!).

MY sympathies to all the South Australians and Victorian’s who didn’t vote for this energy insanity.

•••

VIC Blackout Related :

Australia Unreliable-Energy Debacle Related :

Unreliables Related :

Back In The Real World…

World Coal-Fired Power Surge Related :


TENS Of Thousands Of Homes Across Victoria Without Power As System Buckles Under Heat – Welcome To Your Wind Powered Future!

Vic Blackouts 2018 Jan

Power outages across Victoria have left tens of thousands in the dark. Picture: Powercor

Via Herald Sun :

MORE than 437,000 [Climatism correction. See below ‘Update’] homes across Victoria are without power.

The number has skyrocketed since about 6.15pm amid oppressive heat and humidity.

The tally just before 9pm stood at 37,585, which included Citipower, Powercor and United customers, plus figures from AusNet.

Melbourne’s west has been hit hard, with homes in Sunshine, Seddon, St Albans and Altona North affected.

The outages stretch from Truganina and Hoppers Crossing down to the suburbs surrounding inner Geelong.

The Bellarine Peninsula is one of the hardest hit by outages, with more than 15,000 households in the beachside towns of Ocean Grove, St Leonards, Indented Head, Point Lonsdale and Queenscliff left sweating in the heat.

A Citipower spokeswoman said 35,000 customers across the supplier’s three networks were without power as of 8pm.

It’s sparked outcry among customers, who have taken to social media to vent frustrations…

Screen Shot 2018-01-29 at 6.28.29 am

“Most of the problems today have been fuses blowing basically because of hot weather and very high demand,” the spokesman said.

“In many places, people may have put air-conditioners in that we’re not aware of, so it’s higher demand than we expect in a few areas.”

Melbourne weather: Power out at thousands of homes as heatwave continues | Herald Sun

*

OUR friends over at Stop These Things (STT) analyse the dire power issues faced by Victoria and South Australia whose socialist state governments have embraced the unreliable-energy ‘de-evolution’ with predictably devastating results…

Tom Koutsantonis reckons his state’s wind farms were delivering the goods for South Australians and Victorians, as well.

So, always ready to rain on Kouta’s parade, let’s drill down a little closer to see what SA’s whirling wonders were actually doing on 18 and 19 January (when South Australians needed power most).

Looking more like the profile of a terrifying Swiss ski run, that’s the entire output from SA’s wind farms on 18 January.

With a promising start, delivering almost 1,100 MW for a brief spurt, the team determined to down tools after breakfast, with a precipitous 500 MW collapse in less than 90 minutes. (To put that in perspective, Weatherill, Koutsantonis & Co have been cheering about the demolition of SA’s last coal-fired plant, which had a solid and reliably delivered capacity of 520 MW.)

Thereafter, output collapses 650 MW – from 700MW to 50 MW – over the course of the afternoon; precisely as demand for power peaked.

Weatherill, Koutsantonis and their wind worshipping cronies keep pointing to his $150 million mega-battery as some kind of miraculous saviour. Maths is clearly not among their strongest points. 100 MW (the notional capacity of the battery) fits five times into the margin of the first collapse, and 6½ times into the final post-lunch collapse on 18 January.

Here’s their combined effort on the following day, 19 January:

Having put in an almost respectable effort before morning tea – topping out at 1,000 MW – again, as the day warmed up and power demand surged, output plummets: a full 700 MW – from 1,000 MW to 300 MW – by mid-afternoon, where it bobbed along until 6pm.

At $150 million to get 100 MW worth of Tesla’s battery storage (said by its boosters to deliver 129 MWh), the cost of tooling up to accommodate 700-1,000 MW wind power output collapses every other day would pretty soon add up to $billions.

As pointed out by The Australian, the yawning gaps in SA’s wind power output weren’t back-filled by wind power lovingly stored in Musk’s Marvel, but by the trusty and reliable coal-fired plants still merrily chugging away in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley. But that fact wouldn’t fit their narrative now, would it?

With a deranged and delusional leadership in charge, South Australians can look forward to rocketing power prices and rolling blackouts for years to come.

Welcome to your wind powered future!

Pointless & Pathetic: South Australia’s Wind Power Output Repeatedly Plummets During Summer Heatwave (Again) – STOP THESE THINGS

EXPECT more skyrocketing electricity prices, blackouts and load-shedding as Australia’s virtue-signalling, climate theory-obsessed politicians continue their jihad against what was Australia’s once proud boast – cheap, reliable, efficient baseload power.

THE latest attack on Australia’s energy security as noted on my twitter feed…

Jo Nova with more…

South Australia blows up cheap electricity, jobs, wealth, in ideological anti-coal quest

Today the South Australian government destroyed the smoke stack of the Playford B Plant, one more part of what’s left of the cheapest base-load electricity generators in the state.

For about $8 million a year over three years, they could have kept some coal power going and wouldn’t have needed to spend $400 million on emergency diesel generators they don’t want to use, and over $100 million on a battery that can supply 4% of the state for one hour. They also would’ve paid less than $120 million for two days of electricity last week.

On the upside, they can feel good and pretend to be “world leaders”. Virtue signalling is expensive, eh?

Port Augusta, Northern Power, Demolition, Destruction, Photo, 2018.

….

The plant employed 185 people, the coal mine 200. Other businesses in the town, who knows? People are leaving.

SA, a star in the race away from being a competitive, powerhouse rich state. Creating wealth and jobs in China.

Last South Australian coal-fired power station demolition nears completion

The Australian, Luke Griffiths:

The concrete and brick structure at the 240MW Playford B power station, named after long-serving South Australian premier Sir Thomas Playford and mothballed in 2012, leaves only the 200-metre high stack at the nearby Northern power station standing in Port Augusta, 280km north of Adelaide.

That is expected to be demolished in April or May as part of a decommissioning process undertaken by Flinders Power, an offshoot of former power station operator Alinta Energy.

Before announcing the closure of Northern in mid-2015, Alinta unsuccessfully sought $25 million in subsidies over three years from the South Australian Labor government to keep it operating until this year, to ensure an effective transition occurred, after a rapid rise in renewable energy made it unviable.

However, the Weatherill government, which is ideologically opposed to coal, rejected the offer.

It’s wrecking the town too:

Locals in Port Augusta this week expressed frustration…

Deirdre McKerlie, who works at KD’s Hair Flair, told The Australian that not having a transition plan was “just stupid”. She said Port Augusta hit “rock bottom”, with many businesses unviable and residents moving away.

Premier Jay Weatherill said “Port Augusta is a symbol of South Australia’s transition from old to new…”

Exactly our point.

The boilers were blown up in November.

The rest will be demolished in April or May. SA, living standards thereafter.

SA had two coal power plants: Playford B, built in 1963, 240MW and newer Northern Power Station (1985) and 520MW.

Comment from RB555  2018/01/22 at 12:22 pm

This ETSA PR film from 1954 may be of interest.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMKPz-kVgcc
Shows the opening of Playford A power station, the first of three powered by Lee Creek coal.
Tom Playford himself appears briefly in the film.
A brief history of the complex is here.

South Australia blows up cheap electricity, jobs, wealth, in ideological anti-coal quest « JoNova

“Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences” – Robert Louis Stevenson

•••

UPDATE

Jo Nova on the “secret” air conditioners that one power company (Ausnet) is blaming for Melbourne’s blackout…

Melbourne: 42,000 homes in dark, no fans left at Kmart. Power outages due to “secret” air conditioners?

Melbourne skyline, at night.

Melbourne Skyline at night…Image: Alfred Glickman

The temperature reached 38C in Melbourne (100F) on Sunday — something it has probably done most summers since 10,000BC.

CitiPower, Powercor and the United Energy spokeswoman Emma Tyner said that as of 9.25pm, about 41,190 homes were without power across those three networks. – Sydney Morning Herald

Now why would that be? Ms Tyner puts a lack of supply in the nicest possible way:

“The extreme heat has significantly increased electricity use and this has resulted in localised power outages,” Ms Tyner said.

It’s not that governments didn’t plan energy policy — it’s the users who wanted too much (i.e your fault.) Though Victorians used to use more power than this.  On Sunday, peak electricity demand was 9,124MW, about 13% less than the all time peak of 10,496MW in 2009. (In case you are wondering, Hazelwood (now closed) produced 1600MW or about 25% of Victorian baseload power.)

Mr Armstrong from Ausnet Services (another power company) blamed unreported air conditioners:

“There are a lot fuses blowing in the hot weather and a significant power pull with people having put in air-conditioners they didn’t tell us about,” Mr Armstrong said. — The Age

Who knew you needed to tell your power company when you put in an air conditioner?

Gone are the days when people could willy-nilly run down to Retrovision and just buy an air con.

Ms Tyner and Mr Armstrong may have inadvertently let the cat out of the bag. Perhaps they will get quiet reeducation tomorrow on how to phrase the cause of blackouts. (Aren’t they due to old coal turbines breaking?)   ;-)

Next, expect people to start saying how normal it is to have blackouts on hot days. “It’s just a part of life.”

If only the same people would say that about hot days.

You know things are serious when Kmart runs out of fans.

A Kmart in Northcote on Sunday was completely sold out of all cooling devices, from fans to air-conditioning units, its duty manager said.

So no willy-nilly fan buying either.

Tonight some people have fans, but no electricity. Others have electricity but no fans.

Others have electricity and fans, but no money. Luckily electricity “only” reached a peak of $3,125 per MWh briefly in Victoria. (Only a few million extra).

Pollies play blackout roulette

Robert Gottleibsen, a week ago:

Welcome to Australia’s deadly game of Melbourne and Sydney blackout roulette. The stakes involve hundreds of millions of dollars of refrigerated food and the operations of thousands of factories and offices who don’t have emergency power contingencies in place.

…Victoria took longer than NSW to wake up but it too has been working hard to reduce the risk of blackouts. For the most part, both states are borrowing ideas from third world countries by getting industry and consumers to cut back on power usage when days are hot. In addition, those organisations with back up power (like phone companies) are being asked to use it so as to cut demand and, if possible, put power back into the grid. Accordingly, highly polluting diesel becomes the saviour.

Could someone teach editors what “record-breaking” means?

Last night the minimum was 22.8C in Melbourne. Tonight was forecast to be 28C. If the Bureau are right, it won’t be close to breaking the record.

The Sydney Morning Herald

Close to record-breaking heat

While it is not quite a record, Melbourne has come close to the hottest-ever January overnight temperature of 30.6 degrees.

Melbourne has reached that record twice since records began, once in 1902 and again in 2010.

The good news is that the other 1.5 million homes still have electricity. Though the United Energy Outage Map keeps going out itself.

The Ausnet Outage Map has a popup note: due to the large number of outages power may not get restored til Monday morning.

Melbourne: 42,000 homes in dark, no fans left at Kmart. Power outages due to “secret” air conditioners? « JoNova

•••

UPDATE

THE amount of homes affected by the latest Victorian blackouts varies wildly from news org to news org. The original Herald Sun article which this post is based reported “MORE than 437,000 homes across Victoria are without power.” The article has been updated and overwritten.

Via sister paper Daily Telegraph:

Screen Shot 2018-01-29 at 1.48.15 pm

HERE are a few other agencies reporting housing numbers affected:

•••

Australia Unreliable-Energy Debacle Related :

Unreliables Related :

Back In The Real World…

World Coal-Fired Power Surge Related :


Finkel’s Fantasyland: Report to ‘Save’ Australia’s Power Grid From Renewables Chaos a Death Sentence for Business

“And here’s a very important warning: beware modellers who tell you that, in the best-case scenario, electricity prices could actually fall. Tell that to the householders who face power price rises of between 20 and 30 per cent in parts of Australia.”

Garbage in, garbage out is the key reason to distrust the modelling, as well as the riding instructions given to compliant modellers. They are happy to adjust assumptions, often in hidden ways, to achieve the desired result…”

Sounds a lot like the overheated UN CMIP5 climate models – 102 ensembles which have failed dismally to model observed reality with regard to the current global warming “pause”. That ever inconvenient warming “hiatus” now nearing two decades despite record “CO2” emissions over the same period!

STOP THESE THINGS

Oh, and you’ll find grid-scale battery storage right over here.

***

In yesterday’s post we described Alan Finkel’s report on Australia’s power market fiasco as a mixture of Lewis Carroll’s ‘Through the Looking-Glass’ – residing in a place where the fundamentals of physics and economics, logic and reason are playfully and permanently suspended – and Goldilocks – the story about an infantile quest to make sure everything the heart desires is ‘just right’ – another lovable, childish fantasy.

After the report was released, commentators and barrackers set to work attempting to find something resembling common sense amongst its musings.

Alas, the report’s recommendations (available here), were they to be implemented, would guarantee the destruction of what remains of Australia’s reliable and affordable power supplies, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than is already guaranteed under the Large-Scale RET. South Australia has already been written-off; Finkel uses it as ‘case…

View original post 3,334 more words


Continued Hype and Deceit Drive Climate, Energy Agenda – Clobbering Poor Families

“No Real-World evidence supports a “dangerous manmade climate change” thesis. In fact, a moderately warmer planet with more atmospheric carbon dioxide would hugely benefit crop, forest and other plant growth, wildlife and humans – with no or minimal climate effect. A colder planet with less CO2 would punish them. And a chillier CO2-deprived planet with less reliable, less affordable energy (from massive wind, solar and biofuel projects) would threaten habitats, species, nutrition and the poorest among us.”

Such a simple yet overwhelmingly critical paragraph that eviscerates the supposed “global warming planetary crisis”.

As is this:

“It is clearly not climate change that threatens the poor. It is policies imposed in the name of preventing climate change that imperil poor, minority, blue-collar, farm and factory families.”

Read more of Paul Driessen’s common sense and reasoned argument that is so painfully devoid in the alarmist, schizophrenic world of “Climate Crisis Inc.”

Watts Up With That?

Hurricane Matthew has given climate change alarmists yet another excuse to rail against fossil use and demand a “fundamental transformation” of the US and world energy and economic systems. Reality simply does not support their claims or demands.

Guest opinion by Paul Driessen

Despite constant claims to the contrary, the issue is not whether greenhouse gas emissions affect Earth’s climate. The questions are whether those emissions are overwhelming the powerful natural forcesthat have always driven climate fluctuations, and whether humans are causing dangerous climate change.

No Real-World evidence supports a “dangerous manmade climate change” thesis. In fact, a moderately warmer planet with more atmospheric carbon dioxide would hugely benefit crop, forest and other plant growth, wildlife and humans – with no or minimal climate effect. A colder planet with less CO2 would punish them. And a chillier CO2-deprived planet with less reliable, less affordable energy (from massive wind, solar…

View original post 1,211 more words


Terrifying Flat Global Temperature Crisis Threatens To Disrupt U.N. Climate Conference Agenda

We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the
industrialized civilizations collapse?
Isn’t it our responsiblity to bring that about
?”
– Maurice Strong,
founder of the UN Environment Programme

In my view, after fifty years of service in the United Nations system,
I perceive the utmost urgency and absolute necessity for proper
Earth government. There is no shadow of a doubt that the present
political and economic systems are no longer appropriate
and will lead to the end of life evolution on this planet.
We must therefore absolutely and urgently look for new ways.”

– Dr Robert Muller,
UN Assistant Secretary General,

•••

Via Forbes 

Larry Bell

OP/ED 9/10/2013 @ 9:00AM

Bummer! Now, just before members of the U.N.’s Church of the Burning Planet are scheduled to finalize their latest hellfire and brimstone sermon, a chilling development has occurred. A flood of blasphemous reports circulated among ranks of former faithful parishioners are challenging human-caused climate crisis theology.

On September 23 through 26, representatives of the world’s Environment Ministries will meet in Stockholm to agree on the final draft of a key portion of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers gospel which is expected, once again, to keep the political climate cauldron steaming. This Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is intended to be used by international ministers working to devise a new global treaty by 2015 to curb “climate change”.

Screen Shot 2013-09-12 at , September 12, 8.37.36 AM

That goal is certainly no trifle, given that dramatic climate changes have been occurring over many millions of years, although

lately…not so much. Therein lies the big rub. How can ministers conjure up a newsworthy sequel to previous knuckle-biting prognostications when all evidence suggests that the prophesies, and the scriptures they were based upon, were proven wrong?

Remember that really scary “hockey stick” graph IPCC used to show that rising atmospheric CO2  concentrations would send global temperatures soaring? And recall all the ballyhoo about CO2 levels reaching a 400 ppm record high? Yet last February even IPCC’s chairman Rajenda Pachuri has admitted that world temperature data has been flat for the past 17 years. And that was after the British media reported that the UK Met Office was projecting a 20-year standstill in global warming by 2017.

You certainly know the jig is up when the New York Times finally recognizes that the feverish climate fervor is overheated. They reported on June 6 that“The rise in the surface temperature of Earth has been markedly slower over the last 15 years than in the 20 years before that. And that lull in warming has occurred even as greenhouse gases have accumulated in the atmosphere at a record pace.”Reporter Justin Gillis went on to admit that the break in temperature increases “highlights important gaps in our knowledge of the climate system”, whereby the lack of warming “is a bit of a mystery to climate scientists.”

D’ya think?

Where, Oh Where, Has that Global Warming Gone?

One highly plausible answer to this mystery is that the climate models upon which IPCC’s failed projections are based exaggerate climate sensitivity to CO2, underestimate known natural forcings, and simply don’t understand how to factor in and calibrate other influences such as ocean cycles and solar activity. Numerous recent scientific papers suggest that overestimation of sensitivity by at least 30% may account for much of the problem. If so, a reduction of 30% would leave lots of missing heat which must have been offset by natural cooling.

After all, the importance of those natural influences shouldn’t be that surprising given that history shows that temperatures have been higher when CO2 levels were lower, and vise versa. In fact, the past century has witnessedtwo generally accepted periods of warming The first occurred between 1900 and 1945. Since CO2 levels were relatively low then compared with now, and didn’t change much, they couldn’t have been the cause before 1950.

The second possible very small warming, following a slight cool-down, may have begun in the late 1970s lasting until 1998, a strong Pacific Ocean El Niño year. Yet even if global temperatures actually did rise very slightly during that second period, the U.K. Hadley Center and U.S. NOAA balloon instrument analyses fail to show any evidence, whatsoever, of a human CO2 emission-influenced warming telltale “signature” in the upper troposphere over the equator as predicted by all IPCC global circulation models. In fact, about half of all estimated warming since 1900 occurred before the mid-1940s despite continuously rising CO2 levels since that time.

So Maybe the Models Are Broke…Not the Climate After All!

According to a recent Opinion & Comment piece titled Overestimating global warming over the past 20 years that appeared in Nature Climate Change, the model-based fear and loathing attached to global warming may be substantially overheated. Notably, Francis W. Zwiers, one of the three authors, is a vice-chair of this relevant section for AR5.  The writers observe that whereas the global mean temperature over the past 20 years (1993-2012) rose at a rate of between about 0.14o–0.06oC per decade, average temperatures computed by 117 simulations of 37 climate models predicted a surface temperature rise of 0.30o-0.02o C per decade. The observed rate of warming was less than half of the simulated rate.

The inconsistency between observed and simulated warming was even greater over the past 15 years (between 1998 and 2012).  Here the observed trend was 0.05o-0.08oC per decade, vs. the average simulated trend of 0.21o-0.03oC. The observed trend was four times smaller. The divergence began in the early 1990s. Accordingly, evidence indicates that the group of model simulations do not reproduce observed global warming over the past 20 years, or the slowdown over the past 15 years. Keep Reading »

Related:


UTTER INSANITY: Spending $160b to cut the temperature by 0.00005 degrees

The common enemy of humanity is man.
In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up 
with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, 
water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill. All these
dangers are caused by human intervention, and it is only through
changed attitudes and behavior that they can be overcome.
The real enemy then, is humanity itself
.”
– Club of Rome,
premier environmental think-tank,
consultants to the United Nations

We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world
.
– Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment

•••
Via Herald Sun – Andrew Bolt Blog
Topher strikes again:

What is the TRUE cost of climate change? Is stopping it early really the cheapest plan in the long run? 50 to 1 explores the costs of stopping climate change vs adapting to it as and if it’s required, and uncovers a simple truth; it’s 50 times more expensive to try and STOP climate change than it is to simply ADAPT to it as and if required.

Topher works out that Labor’s global warming policy would after 10 years cut the world’s temperature by 0.00005 degrees at a cost of $160 billion.

The global warming faith has robbed our politicians of all reason.

•••

UPDATE

via 50 to 1 Video Project | Topher.com.au

MUST SEE Full length interviews:

Full length interview with Joanne Nova

Topher interviews Joanne Nova, a veteran science communicator and regular commentator on the ABC and many other places. Joanne speaks of her own journey and how she went from being a ‘veteran believer’ in Global Warming to being the high-profile skeptic she is today.

Full length interview with David Evans

Topher interviews David Evans, former modeler for the Australian Greenhouse Office, now prominent skeptic. He explains the reasons for his change of mind and why he’s so become so vocal on the issue.

Full length interview with Anthony Watts

Topher interviews Anthony Watts, former weatherman and passionate believer in global warming, now world famous skeptic responsible for the ‘surface stations’ project which has found serious issues with the global temperature measuring network, and key figure within the ‘Climategate’ scandal.

Full length interview with Christopher Essex

Topher interviews Christopher Essex, Professor of Applied Mathematics, who promptly ‘flips the checker board’ with questions about the very validity of such a thing as ‘Global temperature’.

Full length interview with Donna Laframboise

Topher interviews Donna Laframboise, former journalist turned investigative author. Donna has critiqued the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s claims about itself, its authors and its peer review process, and found them very VERY wanting…

Full length interview with Marc Morano

Topher interviews Marc Morano, accused ‘criminal against humanity’ and alleged ‘central cell of the climate denial machine’ and gets an insiders look into the politics and collateral damage caused by clumsy political responses to fears about climate change.

Full length interview with Fred Singer

Topher interviews Fred Singer, atmospheric and space physicist and long time hero of the environmental movement, and finds out why he founded the NON Governmental Panel on Climate Change and why he’s taken a high profile stand against the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Full length interview with Henry Ergas

Topher interviews Henry Ergas, a high profile Australian economist with a lot to say about carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes, and discovers some of the underlying reasons why politicians love carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes and why these ‘markets’ always seem to fail.

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