ENSO and IOD : Mother Nature’s Climate and Bushfire Drivers

Posted: January 21, 2020 | Author: Jamie Spry | Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, BoM, Bureau Of Meterology, Climate Change, Climatism | Tags: BoM, Bureau of Meteorology, Bushfire Crisis Australia, Bushfires, climate, Climate Change, Climatism, Commonwealth Meteorological Office, Credlin, drought, El Nino, ENSO, Extreme weather, floods, Global Warming, Indian Ocean Dipole, La Niña, Mother Nature, Outsiders, science, Science and Environment, Weather, Wildfires | 2 Comments

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“People have been imagining that the climate is changing,
exaggerating every weather event, getting widespread press coverage,
and blaming it on man – for as long as there have been newspapers.”
–Tony Heller
Climate Change Insanity Never Changes

“It is fortunate for the community’s peace of mind
that the Commonwealth Meteorological Office exists as a
corrective to scare mongering and shameless prophecy.”
– Mr. E. Bromley : Commonwealth Meteorological Office (BoM) 1923

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AUSTRALIA’s highly variable climate is influenced by the broad patterns in the oceans around it and the atmosphere above it. These patterns are considered the “dominant climate and weather drivers“ according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.

ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) is one of Australia and the planet’s key climate drivers, influencing extremes including devastating bushfires, “droughts and flooding rains“.

ENSO swings between three key phases – La Niña (negative), neutral (inactive) and El Niño (positive).

EL NIÑO

LA NIÑA

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INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE (IOD)

WHILE El Niño and La Niña occur in the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean Dipole oscillates in the waters of the Indian Ocean, influencing climate and weather patterns of Australia and the entire planet.

Indian Ocean Dipole

Sustained changes in the difference between sea surface temperatures of the tropical western and eastern Indian Ocean are known as the Indian Ocean Dipole or IOD. The IOD is one of the key drivers of Australia’s climate and can have a significant impact on agriculture. This is because events generally coincide with the winter crop growing season. The IOD has three phases: neutral, positive and negative. Events usually start around May or June, peak between August and October and then rapidly decay when the monsoon arrives in the southern hemisphere around the end of spring.

Sea surface temperatures

Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures impact rainfall and temperature patterns over Australia. Warmer than average sea surface temperatures can provide more moisture for frontal systems and lows crossing Australia.

Indian Ocean climate influences (IOD) | BoM

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POSITIVE IOD – IMPLICATIONS FOR DROUGHT and BUSHFIRES

WHILE most of the mainstream media, and ClimateChange™️ activists have juvenilely blamed trace gas Carbon Dioxide for Australia’s devastating bushfires, little to nothing has been said about ENSO and in particular the IOD.

IT doesn’t take Einstein to workout why ClimateChange™️ activists, the CO2 theory-obsessed fake news mainstream media and the extended climate-ambulance-chasing family choose to omit natural climate drivers from their doomsday rhetoric.

HOWEVER, policy makers, industry and the public must be made aware of Mother Nature’s dominant and natural climate drivers so that public funds are not misallocated and importantly so that we can identify the warning signs of drought and other extremes using ENSO and IOD to predict and prepare for future and inevitable catastrophes.

STRONG POSITIVE IOD = DROUGHT = BUSHFIRES

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2019 RECORD DROUGHT

2019 saw the lowest rainfall on record for Australia and in particular Eastern and South Eastern Australia where the devastating bushfires occurred. This coincided with “one of the strongest positive IOD events to impact Australia in recent history”, according to the BoM.

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BoM goes on to state that “the IOD’s legacy of widespread warm and dry conditions during the second half of 2019 primed the Australian landscape for bushfire weather and heatwaves this summer.”

IN this case, it seems undeniable that ‘correlation does equal causation’.

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DATA-over-theory guy Willis Eschenbach from “the word’s most viewed climate and science website” – Watts Up With That? exposes who really are the “deniers” when in comes to identifying naturally occurring cycles of drought and rainfall patterns that influence Australia’s weather, climate and bushfires …

Australia Fires … And Misfires

Willis Eschenbach / January 4, 2020

I kept hearing so much about the Australian bushfires being the result of or driven by “climate change” or “global warming” that I thought I’d take a look at just what’s happened to the rainfall there. Here are a hundred and nineteen years of Australian rainfall.

Climate change and variability: Tracker: Australian timeseries graphs | BoM

Here’s the curious part. The earth has been undergoing a mild warming pretty steadily since 1970, about the last half-century.

But although the last couple years have been dry, the last half-century in Australia has been wetter than the previous half-century. Not dryer. Wetter. And a lot wetter.

In fact, anyone under about sixty years old has never experienced dry Australia.

Now, I mentioned this and showed this graph on Twitter, where I post as @weschenbach, and someone said something like “Well, Australia’s a big area to average. Maybe it’s wetter in the middle and less so on the coast.”

That seemed unlikely. I mean the moisture is coming in from the ocean and so the coasts are generally wetter than the outback … plus with overall more rain, the middle would have to be pretty wet.

But I’m a man for data over theory, so I went back to the same source listed above, and I got the rainfall records for New South Wales where the fires are. Here are those results.

australia-NSW-rainfall-1900-2019

And once again, yes, the last few years have surely been dry in NSW … but again, that’s weather. And once again, the recent half-century has been much wetter than the first half of the 20th century. Not dryer. Wetter.

Finally, forest management experts have been warning the Australian government over and over again for years that neglecting forest management and giving up on fire hazard reduction burns was piling up fuel in the bush, and that it was only a matter of time and a dry year before catastrophe struck … here’s a particularly strong warning from 2015, and it is far from the only one.

But nooo … misguided green activists wouldn’t hear of that. They protested the fire hazard reduction burns.

aussie-greens

Hilariously, the Australian Broadcasting Commission has deleted their article on the activists’ protest because it doesn’t fit the “CLIMATE EMERGENCY!” narrative … bunch’a deceptive left-wing idiots who don’t know that the intarwebs never forget.

And when you add the incredibly high fuel load in the oily flammable eucalyptus forest to the fact that more than a dozen arsonists have been arrested for starting many of the fires, it should come as no surprise to anyone that these fires have been devastating, destructive, fatal, and horrible …

It should come as no surprise because they were warned. Clearly. Repeatedly.

Now, I live in the fire zone in California, and so I have great sympathy and compassion for those who are in the path of the fires in Australia. And our fire problem here is inter alia for the same reason—abysmal forest management practices driven by Green activists with hearts of gold and brains of oatmeal.

But those blaming it on climate change? Look, if the CO2 emissions in Australia went to zero, it might make the earth cooler by about 0.05°C by the year 2050 … call me crazy, but I don’t see Australians giving up on air travel as being a very effective fire-fighting strategy.

My best regards to everyone on a lovely clear night,

w.

Australia Fires … And Misfires | Watts Up With That?

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QUELLING COSTLY HYSTERIA

IN the heated and divisive days of CO2-centric catastrophism that we currently inhabit, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, has a fundamental responsibility as the nation’s premier, government meteorological and ‘scientific’ body to douse the flames of  ‘man-made’ Climate Change hysteria by publicly explaining to policy makers, the public and to the mainstream media that completely natural and cyclical climate events are “the main climate drivers” of climate and weather extremes in Australia.

AGAIN, policy makers, industry and the public must be made aware of Mother Nature’s dominant and natural climate drivers so that public funds are not misallocated and importantly so that we can identify the warning signs of drought and other extremes using ENSO and IOD to predict and prepare for future and inevitable catastrophes.

THEY would also do well to quell the apocalyptic fantasies being instilled by ClimateChange™️ activists and teachers into our most vulnerable – our children – leading to all manner of psychological disorders and outbreaks of genuine fear and distress …

The poor children were absolutely terrified. “We are gonna die! I don’t want to die!” screamed one little child during a propaganda session on “climate” forced on 2nd and 3rd graders at a public school in Toronto.

CHILDREN Of The Ignorant : New Zealand Schools To Terrify Children About The ‘Climate Crisis’ | Climatism

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THEY DON’T MAKE ‘EM LIKE THEY USED TO!

BACK in 1923, when scientists behaved like scientists, the BoM, then known as the Commonwealth Meteorological Office prided itself on existing “as a corrective to scare mongering and shameless prophecy.” 

“It is fortunate for the community’s peace of mind that the Commonwealth Meteorological Office exists as a corrective to scare mongering and shameless prophecy.” – Mr. E. Bromley

BOY, are we praying for a return to the measured days of 1923, well before ClimateChange™️ hysteria trumped reason and dissenters called to be lynched!

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WINDMILLS & MIRRORS WON’T STOP BUSHFIRES

BOM notes that ENSO is “the dominant climate / weather driver”. And they would be correct. To think that windmills and solar panels, or handing over billions of our hard-earned money to the U.N., or shutting down one more coal-fired power station can effect ENSO is at best unscientific, at worst, insanity writ large.

IF the climate activists and their media sycophants were serious about ’emissions’ and their effect on climate and weather, they would be glueing themselves to the pavement, outside the embassies of China instead of de-industrialising Australia and sending jobs and ’emissions’ back to…China.

THE fact that they are not, proves without a doubt that ClimateChange™️ has absolutely nothing to do with the ‘environment’ or “Saving the Planet”, rather, everything to do with an unhealthy lust for power, control and the advancement of deadly socialism.

DON’T take my word for it, you only have to read Greta Thunberg’s the UN’s very own words on exactly what the “Climate Crisis” is really all about …

“the climate crisis is not just about the environment. It is a crisis of human rights, of justice, and of political will. Colonial, racist, and patriarchal systems of oppression have created and fueled it. We need to dismantle them all.” – Why We Strike Again by Greta Thunberg

TEAM GRETA Admits Climate Change Has Nothing To Do With The Environment | Climatism

WE are yet to be told what system would replace capitalism. However, one does not have to read far into the history of the environmental movement to work out which form of actual “oppression” they would prefer.

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CONCLUSION

MANY complex climate and weather factors lead to catastrophic bushfires. In my opinion, mankind does play a huge roll in the fires. Arson, the criminal build-up of dry fuel loads and poor forest management have greatly exacerbated Australia’s latest bushfire ‘crisis’.

WHILE Australia is set to have a Royal Commission following this season’s devastating bushfires that burnt over ten million hectares, levelled ~2000 homes and killed ~30, don’t expect to see the ENSO, IOD, arson or fuel-load management playing a lead roll. The climate ambulance chasers will use the enquiry – the 58th since 1939 – to push their ruinous deindustrialisation ClimateChange™️ agenda.

AS the excellent Viv Forbes predicts, the RC will merely …

“provide a grandstand for the Climate Rebellion Mob who will get starring roles on ABC/Fairfax. Big business will probably promote a carbon tax to fight bushfires while foresters and land owners will hardly be heard.” 

Government by Enquiry | Saltbush Club

IF the coverage and commentary we’ve seen from the mainstream media, CO2 theory-obsessed politicians and Hollywood elites is anything to go by, then Forbes would be spot-on. A sad indictment on the 24/7 news cycle and social media times that we currently inhabit where the press and influencers instinctively default to blaming ‘man-made climate change’ for every and any weather event regardless of the actual science, underlying data or reference to history.

ACTIVISM at its most lazy and dangerous that will only lead to further loss of life, destruction of infrastructure and the decimation of plants and wildlife when the inevitable bushfires return.

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QUICK VIDS WELL WORTH WATCHING

via Bureau of Meteorology :

Understanding ENSO

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Understanding the Indian Ocean Dipole

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AUSTRALIAN Bushfire History Links :

• BLACK THURSDAY 168 Years Ago : Bushfires Burn 5 Million Hectares or A Quarter Of Victoria | Climatism
• VICTORIAN BUSHFIRES : A History Lesson For Climate Change Ambulance Chasers @Melissa4Durack | Climatism
• Australian Bushfires Much Worse In 1974/5 | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

SEE also :

• HYSTERIA MEDS : Eleven Scientific Pills To Quell The ‘Climate Crisis’ Lie | Climatism
• NOW That We Know Renewables Can’t ‘Save The Planet’, Are We Really Going To Stand By And Let Them Destroy It? | Climatism
• DIPOLE Down Under | Climatism
• CHILDREN Of The Ignorant : New Zealand Schools To Terrify Children About The ‘Climate Crisis’ | Climatism
• TEAM GRETA Admits Climate Change Has Nothing To Do With The Environment | Climatism
• EXTINCTION REBELLION : Imagine If These People Had Real Power? | Climatism
• CLIMATE’S FATAL FLAW : ‘Greenhouse Gases Simply Do Not Absorb Enough Heat To Cause Global Warming’ | Climatism

EXTREME WEATHER Related :

• COGNITIVE BIAS : Climate Change Alarmists Refuse To Accept ‘The Science’ That Proves Extreme Weather Events Are NOT Increasing | Climatism

STATE Of The Climate Report :

• CLIMATISM : 2019 State Of The Climate Report | Climatism

TEMPERATURE Related :

• THE Great Global Warming “Pause” | Climatism
• GLOBAL Temperature Drops By 0.4°C In Three Years | Climatism
• PEER-REVIEWED SCIENCE : The Medieval Warm Period Was Indeed Global And Warmer Than Today | Climatism

ORIGINS Of The Global Warming Scam :

• DRACONIAN UN CLIMATE AGENDA EXPOSED : ‘Global Warming Fears Are A Tool For Political and Economic Change…It Has Nothing To Do With The Actual Climate’ | Climatism
• HYSTERIA MEDS : Eleven Scientific Pills To Quell The ‘Climate Crisis’ Lie | Climatism
• CLIMATE’S FATAL FLAW : ‘Greenhouse Gases Simply Do Not Absorb Enough Heat To Cause Global Warming’ | Climatism
• UN Carbon Regime Would Devastate Humanity And The Environment | Climatism
• BASIC Science For Climate Scientists | Climatism
• GENESIS Of The Great Global Warming Hoax In One Minute And Ten Seconds | Climatism
• DR TIM BALL MUST READ : Environmentalism – Evidence Suggests It Was Always And Only About Achieving World Government | Climatism
• THE Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming Scam | Climatism
• CLIMATE CHANGE : The Unsettled Science Of “Settled” Science | Climatism
• FATHER Of The 2°C Climate Target Admits Number Is Fabricated : ‘Two degrees is not a magical limit; it’s clearly a political goal’ | Climatism
• TIM FLANNERY – Professor of Dud Predictions and Climate Falsehoods | Climatism
• THE Mind-blowing Costs Of Global Warming Hysteria | Climatism
• THE Orwellian Era Of @NASA Climate Pseudoscience | Climatism
• WESTERN Nations, Driven By A Global Agenda Of Climate Alarmism, Are Destroying Their Industries With Carbon Taxes And Promotion Of Expensive, Intermittent Green Energy | Climatism
• TOMORROW’S Grim, Global, Green Dictatorship | Climatism
• CLIMATE CHANGE – The Most Massive Scientific Fraud In Human History | Climatism
• “In Searching For A New Enemy To Unite Us, We Came Up With The Threat Of Global Warming” | Climatism
• The Creator, Fabricator And Proponent Of Global Warming – Maurice Strong | Climatism
• Global Warming Is The Greatest And Most Successful Pseudoscientific Fraud In History | Climatism
• Sustainability is Malthusianism for the 21st Century | Climatism
• THE Climate Change Farce Explained By Two Expert “Scientists” | Climatism
• UN IPCC : Climate “Has Almost Nothing To Do With Environmental Policy.” | Climatism
• UN IPCC : “Long-Term Prediction of Future Climate States Is Not Possible.” | Climatism
• UN IPCC Rewrote Temperature History To Suit Their Political Agenda | Climatism
• 100% Of Climate Models Prove That 97% Of Climate Scientists Were Wrong! | Climatism
• YES! The Climate Changes | Climatism
• OUR Planet Has Enjoyed 10 Warm Periods During The Past 10,000 Years | Climatism
• THE ARCTIC : Ground Zero For Anthropogenic Hubris And Climate Change Hysteria | Climatism

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