This is a Guest Post by An Australian Scientist, Doctor John Happs who has an academic background in the geosciences with special interests in climate, and paleoclimate. He has been a science educator at several universities in Australia and overseas.
By Dr. John Happs
When it comes to telling whoppers about climate change, weather extremes and any number of climate-related catastrophes, the United Nations has no equal. Their latest (2020) report proves this beyond any doubt.
Recently released is the UN’s report, dramatically titled: “Human Cost of Disasters: An Overview of the Last 20 Years (2000-2019). This report stems from the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and its Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED).
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
– H.L. Mencken
“Of all tyrannies a tyranny sincerely
exercised for the good of its victims
may be the most oppressive.”
– C. S. Lewis
IF Obama and not Trump were in power, would a shutdown of the entire global economy even have been uttered? Let alone the coordinated press-driven panic over a virus with a 99% recovery rate. A virus that was known early on to pose the greatest threat to the elderly and infirm.
OBAMA’S PANDEMIC
According to the CDC, Obama’s 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu, that killed “151,700-575,400 people worldwide during first year” (COVID19 507,188 to date), didn’t only target the elderly and infirm:
“2009 flu pandemic primarily affected children and young and middle-aged adults…
CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age.”
WHOSE virus, therefore, posed a greater threat to the entire population in order to justify and initiate a global lockdown? Obama’s or Trump’s?
KEEP in mind that the WHO told us, very early on, two crucial points about COVID–19:
INFLUENZA CAN SPREAD FASTER THAN COVID-19 (Mar 6, 2020) : “The serial interval for COVID-19 virus is estimated to be 5-6 days, while for influenza virus, the serial interval is 3 days. This means that influenza can spread faster than COVID- 19.”
NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF HUMAN-TO-HUMAN TRANSMISSION (Jan 14, 2020) : “Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China”
Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China🇨🇳. pic.twitter.com/Fnl5P877VG
A positive test result shows you may have antibodies from an infection with the virus that causes COVID-19. However, there is a chance a positive result means that you have antibodies from an infection with a virus from the same family of viruses (called coronaviruses), such as the one that causes the common cold.
The CDC is combining antibody and current infection tests, so that anyone who has ever had the virus counts as a positive. Using this methodology they will be able to maintain panic indefinitely, even if very few people are currently infected. https://realclimatescience.com/2020/07/cdc-sabotaging-the-economy/
BBC busy spreading climate change fear and panic to the vulnerable. Paul Homewood corrects the MIAMI sea-level rise record straight with actual “science” and data …
Just down the coast from Donald Trump’s weekend retreat, the residents and businesses of south Florida are experiencing regular episodes of water in the streets. In the battle against rising seas, the region – which has more to lose than almost anywhere else in the world – is becoming ground zero.
The first time my father’s basement flooded, it was shortly after he moved in. The building was an ocean-front high-rise in a small city north of Miami called Sunny Isles Beach. The marble lobby had a waterfall that never stopped running; crisp-shirted valets parked your car for you. For the residents who lived in the more lavish flats, these cars were often BMWs and Mercedes. But no matter their value, the cars all wound up in the same place: the basement.
When I called, I’d ask my dad how the building was doing…
“Action must be powerful and wide-ranging. After all, the climate crisis is not just about the environment. It is a crisis of human rights, of justice, and of political will. Colonial, racist, and patriarchal systems of oppression have created and fueled it. We need to dismantle them all.”
–– GretaThunberg™️
***
CLIMATE scientist and friend Vijay Jayaraj sent me a link to a tweet that resonates to a level beyond disturbing.
WITHOUT asking the United Nations to ‘zip-it’ while billions are going through COVID19 hell, let alone tens of millions of Indian children who cannot even touch or feel an iPad, I’ll leave this with you…
A School Strike when the Entire World is Shutdown? This is what happens when you refuse to be educated! Btw I know 100s of individuals in India who wished they had schooling in their life. Stop Undermining School. Stop spreading lies. @ClimateRealists@ClimateDepot@JWSpryhttps://t.co/pNoOqtNjp7
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
– H.L. Mencken
***
WHEN the COVID-19 panic eventually clears, many important questions will be asked. One of them ought to be, “was the cure worse than the disease?”
THE ever-hysterical mainstream media will require tough scrutiny as well. Is there no upper limit anymore to their money-making mantra “if it bleeds, it leads” ?
COMPARE the coverage of Swine Flu (H1N1) (150,000–575,000 fatalities) to COVID-19.
IN April of 2009, H1N1 became a pandemic. It wasn’t until six months later, October, that then-President Obama declared a public health emergency on what was already a pandemic. By that time, the disease had infected millions of Americans and more than 1,000 people had died in the U.S.
WILL leave you to judge the reaction of the globalist mainstream media toward Obama’s global pandemic versus Trump’s one, resulting in the literal shut down of the entire global economy.
Ahem, cough, splutter.
*
TONY Heller of Real Climate Science pulls no punches when it comes to lifting the lid on the ClimateChange™️ farce. Here are his grim thoughts on the prognosis and prescription for the Wuhan flu …
Compare this to the 12,000 to 30,000 flu deaths which had already occurred in the US by February 1.
Flu season is hitting its stride right now in the US. So far, the CDC has estimated (based on weekly influenza surveillance data) that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000.
The total number of deaths should be proportional to the transmissibility and death rates, yet the total number of global deaths from flu is 40-100X higher. You can’t have higher transmissibility and death rates, and come up with a much lower total number of deaths. The mathematics don’t work.
Every single one of the 12,000-30,000 flu deaths in the US this year has involved a person becoming critically ill before they died. Why didn’t that large number of critically ill flu patients, or the comparable number of automobile accident deaths overwhelm the system?
Crashing the economy would put millions of people on the street with no shelter and no health care. How many people would die from that? How many tens of millions of people would be killed by a worldwide depression?
The globalist media have brainwashed billions of people into believing that this kind of instinctive yet hysterical behavior is needed, natural, useful, rational, and probably ethical, too. It’s neither.
The economic and otherwise societal losses will be exponentially larger than the damages to the public health.
About 94,000 people are currently infected with Covid-19, a bit over 7,000 have died plus 78,000 have been cured. The number of deaths per month approximately doubled from the previous one-month period as the disease moved from China to Europe or elsewhere. Asia seems to have tamed the disease completely. China has largely reopened for business despite a dozen of new deaths per day.
Those 7,000 deaths should be compared with approximately 650,000 deaths due to flu in the world in the recent year. Covid-19 clearly continues to be a negligible killer relatively to flu – and the latter hasn’t ever led to any significant hysteria. Covid-19 may be seen to have the potential to surpass flu as a killer (and probably has done so in Italy) but nobody knows whether this potential may be realized in the whole world. Even if Covid-19 becomes the most important killer among respiratory diseases, it will be just a quantitative change in the industry of flu-like diseases.
We’re seeing amazing restrictions on the human movement, contacts, events, economy. I am writing it from the first day (out of 8) of the Italy-style softcore martial law in Czechia. Similar restrictions are imposed almost everywhere. Every hour, a country joins the lockdown; Canada did it minutes ago. Half a billion schoolkids are skipping classes now – Greta Thunberg is no longer too special. Bars and restaurants are closed in about one-half of the world. Carmakers are stopping the production in all of Europe. You can read comments on social networks written by people who were just laid off every second. Also, I think that the real estate prices are likely to drop once the closed hotels and other things are being sold.
The globalist media have brainwashed billions of people into believing that this kind of instinctive yet hysterical behavior is needed, natural, useful, rational, and probably ethical, too. It’s neither.
The economic and otherwise societal losses will be exponentially larger than the damages to the public health. I would even argue that that the economic damages that have already taken place are larger than even the worst case scenario damages to health and lives that could materialize in a hypothetical future. These economic damages are already crippling lots of lives and they will destroy many of them in the future.
A rarely non-hysterical alert just informed me that the first volunteer is being injected with an experimental Moderna vaccine.
In recent years, if you forgot, we were bombarded with the insane culture and feminist, transsexual, multicultural and pro-Islamist, climate alarmist, and several other insanities by the extreme left. These things seem almost completely forgotten now. It is clear that the global CO2 emissions in 2020 will be significantly lower than those in 2019. And so will be the GDP. The drop may continue for years.
Lots of people don’t seem to care about the deepening shutdown of the global economy. People like pensioners, employees, and entomologists who seem certain that they will be safe. Really? When the society stops producing cars and probably many other products, and when it stops an even greater percentage of services, do you really believe it will be capable of giving you a pension that is comparable to the present one, in real terms? When businesses such as restaurants – but even much more industrial ones – are being brutally punished and robbed during this shutdown, do you really believe that they will continue to be able to pay employees? Will the society be willing to pay entomologists? Teachers who don’t really teach because it’s obvious that the home or online schooling will be a farce for a great majority of children?
I am amazed by the huge number of people who seem to enthusiastically welcome this new “regime”. Some totally unhinged leftists – like Democrats in a New Hampshire survey who preferred the extinction of humans by ETs over a Trump reelection – have been known to wish this kind of economical destruction. The green leftists are naturally known to have wet dreams about a global economic misery combined with the “martial law” economy, as correctly pointed out by Marc Morano who was interviewed by Ezra Levant.
But I see a vastly greater number of people who not only don’t seem to be worried about this a new, almost totally man-made Great Depression; but who seem absolutely enthusiastic about it. I am just flabbergasted. Were millions of people similarly enthusiastic about the decline of the Roman Empire? Are these people powered by jealousy? Where does the sentiment come from? Is there a majority that actively wants our civilization to be flushed down the toilet?
An even more shocking finding is the tiny number of people who stand firmly on the opposite side, like myself: people who really think that we must stop the acts that will make a huge Great Depression unavoidable. Yes, even the desire “not to have a new Great Depression” has turned into a “fringe” political opinion, according to the number of prominent advocates (although most Americans probably agree with me – but they have no power today). Freedom Fighter has composed a nice list of conservative pundits who are clearly against the viral hysteria:
ACCORDING to man-made global warming climate change protagonists, our climate and weather is stagnate, and that before ‘evil’ mankind bludgeoned the atmosphere with its “dirty” carbon dioxide gas, climate was stable and pure.
FOR nearly a decade, California has experienced serious drought, causing the usual (progressive) suspects to jump on the harrowing conditions like bees to honey, using their coordinated talking points; “Permanent Drought” and “The New Normal” in an attempt to convince the masses of their own CO2-centric, medieval superstitions …
LA RESERVOIRS FULL – ANOTHER CLIMATE CHANGE DUD-PREDICTION TO ADD TO THE LONG LIST
THE CA government website shows that California reservoirs are currently all sitting above historical averages.
WHAT now do alarmist/activist scientists like Katharine Hayhoe and Michael Mann, who have been scaring CA residents witless for years with their “Permanent Drought” and “New Normal” propaganda, have to say about all this water? Crickets, as per usual.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
– H.L. Mencken
“The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible.” – Bertrand Russell
***
DAY by day, all around the globe, Global Warming Climate Change is being exposed as simply a moral issue for the wealthy urban elite.
BLUE collar workers and the silent majority are not buying into the relentless fear-mongering and warming hysteria driven by climate theory-obsessed politicians, propped up by a compliant mainstream media.
THE incessant propaganda and orchestrated alarmism has lead to the mad rush into costly UNreliables – wind and solar ‘energy’ – that are sending energy prices through the roof and jobs and industry to China or other countries who have not been driven to ‘green’ energy poverty by climate theory-obsessed politicians pushing draconian “Save The Planet” policies.
CAMPAIGNING on climate guarantees political death. Its latest victim, Bill Shorten, The Australian Labor Party and the Greens, who, last night, lost the “unlosable” election to incumbent conservative PM Scott Morrison.
CLIMATE CHANGE, CENTRAL TO THE ELECTION
THE mainstream media flagged “Climate change to be decisive issue in Australian election.” :
GLOBAL REJECTION OF DRACONIAN CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY & ‘GREEN’ ENERGY POVERTY
ALL around the globe, voters are increasingly showing their displeasure with costly unreliable-energy policies imposed by politicians in an inane effort to fight the purported “climate catastrophe”.
IN France in late 2018, protesters donning yellow vests took to the streets—and have stayed there ever since—in large part to protest scheduled increases in fuel taxes, electricity prices, and stricter vehicle emissions controls, which French President Emmanuel Macron claimed were necessary to meet the country’s greenhouse gas reduction commitments under the Paris climate agreement. After the first four weeks of protest, Macron’s government cancelled his climate action plan.
Ford Nation – Scrap The Carbon Tax Scam – Election Victory
IN 2018, in part as a backlash against Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s climate policies, global warming skeptic Doug Ford was elected as premier of Ontario, Canada’s most populous province. Ford announced he would end energy taxes imposed by Ontario’s previous premier and would join Saskatchewan’s premier in a legal fight against Trudeau’s federal carbon dioxide tax.
IN Alberta, Canada, where the economy declined after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s climate policies took hold, voters on April 16 replaced Premier Rachel Notley and her New Democratic Party (NDP), which supports the federal climate policies, with the United Conservative Party, headed by newly elected Premier Jason Kenney, who vowed to scrap the province’s carbon tax and every other policy in NDP’s climate action plan. Among the other climate policies Kenny said he will reverse in an effort to revive the economy are NDP’s plans to accelerate the closure of the province’s coal power plants, and its plan to cap greenhouse gas emissions from the region’s oil sands. In addition, Kenny says he will challenge the federal government’s climate impositions in court and streamline regulations hampering Alberta’s critical oil and gas industry, including restrictions preventing pipeline construction imposed by NDP.
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NETHERLANDS – Forum for Democracy (FvD)
The naked populist: Thierry Baudet stuns the Netherlands | eNCA – said the government should stop funding programs to meet the country’s commitments to international climate change agreements, saying such efforts are driven by “climate-change hysteria.”
In mid-March, the Forum for Democracy (FvD), a fledgling political party just three years old, tied for the largest number of seats, 12, in the divided Dutch Senate in the 2019 elections. FvD takes a decidedly skeptical stance on climate change. On the campaign trail, Thierry Baudet, FvD’s leader, said the government should stop funding programs to meet the country’s commitments to international climate change agreements, saying such efforts are driven by “climate-change hysteria.”
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FINLAND – Finns Party
FINLAND : Finns Party
On April 14 in Finland, where climate change policies became the dominant issue in the election, support for climate skepticism surged. Whereas all the other parties proposed plans to raise energy prices and limit people’s energy use, the Finns Party, which made the fight against expensive climate policies the central part of its platform, gained the second-highest number of seats in the Parliament, just one seat behind the Social Democratic Party’s 40. The second-place finish was a big win for the Finns Party and its skeptical stance: just two months before the election, polls showed its support was below 10 percent.After the Finns Party made battling alarmist climate policies its main goal, its popularity soared. The New York Times credited the Finns Party’s electoral surge, in large part, to its expressed climate skepticism.
EVEN as daily headlines in the fake news / lamestream media become ever shriller, hyping climate fears based on projections made by unverified climate models, the public, especially the voting public, is becoming increasingly weary of the Chicken Little claims of impending climate doom. Voters in developed countries are saying “enough is enough” to high energy prices which punish the most vulnerable people in society and do nothing to regulate climate change.
TAKE NOTE, politicians and business groups – climate change alarmism, political correctness, class warfare and identity politics are the politics of division and are electoral and commercial poison.
IF #Netflix and #DavidAttenborough can so casually attribute “walrus suicide” to theorised man-made climate change, imagine what other falsehoods they are willing to tell you in order to push their ‘catastrophic’ climate narrative?
GREAT additional research, in search of the truth, once again, by Dr Crockford here…
I had an opportunity last night to watch the original Netflix ‘Frozen Worlds’ walrus episode and have some addition thoughts.
One big eye-opener was the final shot of the walrus sequence: a polar bear approaching from the water to feed on the carcasses below the cliff at Cape Kozhevnikov. This is additional proof that polar bears were in the area while the crew were filming. Yet the narrative in the film was silent on the risk to walruses on the cliff from polar bears and not a word was spoken of the hundreds of walruses that had fallen off that very cliff just days before after being spooked by approaching bears.
Oddly, I have also discovered that the Russian scientific advisor to the film, Anatoli Kochnev, wrote a scientific report in 2002 (translated into English) on walrus deaths at two regularly used beach haulouts on Wrangel Island from…
THE Global Warming Policy Foundation has since released an excellent short video showing why the polar bear no longer serves as the icon of the climate change movement :
DIRE predictions of an “ice-free” Arctic have remained popular on the climate change fear-mongering circuit, owing to the psychological and political currency of all things melting and not least the emotional relevance applicable to the fate of the Arctic’s most famous resident and ‘global warming’ mascot – the polar bear.
SOME of the failed Arctic sea-ice predictions by alarmists ‘scientists’ and the fake news media over the years :
“Arctic summers ice-free by 2013” (BBC 2007)
“Could all Arctic ice be gone by 2012?” (AP 2007)
“Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?”(National Geographic 2007)
“Imagine yourself in a world five years from now, where there is no more ice over the Arctic” – Tim Flannery (2008)
“North Pole could be ice-free in 2008” – Mark Serreze (New Scientist 2008)
“Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014” (USA Today 2009)
“Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within 4 years” (Guardian 2012)
“Say Goodbye to Arctic Summer Ice” (Live Science 2013)
“Ice-free Arctic in two years heralds methane catastrophe – scientist” (The Guardian 2013)
“Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013” (Sierra Club 2013)
“Next year or the year after, the Arctic will be free of ice’” – Peter Wadhams (The Guardian 2016)
MINIMUM sea-ice extent has been trending up over the past twelve years. The EXACT opposite of what the mainstream media and ‘97% experts’ have been telling you :
ARCTIC temperatures and melt cycles correlate almost perfectly with ocean circulation cycles (AMO), and show no correlation with atmospheric CO2 levels :
Reykjavik, Iceland Temperatures Vs. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
NO other icon of ‘Global Warming’ epitomises its very own false narrative like the polar bear does for ‘Climate Change’.
WITH deadly irony, polar bear numbers have grown dramatically as carbon dioxide emissions have risen in lock-step. A CO2 correlation, at last!
INDIGENOUS Inuit’s of Northern Canada are now facing the very real task of having to cull the population as “the polar bear may have exceeded the co-existence threshold.”
“Inuit believe there are now so many bears that public safety has become a major concern,”
“Public safety concerns, combined with the effects of polar bears on other species, suggest that in many Nunavut communities, the polar bear may have exceeded the co-existence threshold.”
Susan Crockford is zoologist with more than 35 years experience, including published work on the Holocene history of Arctic animals. She is currently an adjunct professor at the University of Victoria, British Columbia.
It’s long past time for polar bear specialists to stop holding out for a scientifically accurate global estimate that will never be achieved and determine a reasonable and credible ‘best guess’. Since they have so far refused to do this, I have done it for them. My extrapolated estimate of 39,000 (range 26,000-58,000) at 2018 is not only plausible but scientifically defensible.
In 2014, the chairman of the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG) emailed me to say that their global population size number ‘has never been an estimate of total abundance in a scientific sense, but simply a qualified guess given to satisfy public demand.’
In my new book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, I contend that this situation will probably never change, so it’s time to stop holding out for a scientifically accurate global estimate and generate a reasonable and credible ‘best guess’. Recent surveys from several critical polar bear subpopulations have given us the information necessary to do this.
These new numbers make it possible to extrapolate from ‘known’ to ‘unknown’ subpopulations within so-called ‘sea ice ecoregions’ (defined in 2007 by polar bear scientists at the US Geological Survey, see Amstrup et al. 2007), as shown below, to update old estimates and generate new ones for never-studied areas.
USGS – Polar Bear Ecoregions
Since the PBSG has so far refused to take this step, I took on the challenge. I contend that an estimate of about 39,000 (range 26,000-58,000) at 2018 is not only plausible but scientifically defensible. See the graph below from my new book:
Global polar bear population size estimates to 2018. From Chapter 10 of The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened (Crockford 2019).
This new estimate for 2018 is a modest 4-6 fold increase over the 10,000 or so bears that existed in the 1960s and after 25 years, a credible increase over the estimate of 25,000 that the PBSG offered in 1993 (Wiig et al. 1995).
However, my new estimate is much larger than the improbable figure of about 26,000 (range 22,000-31,000) offered by PGSG biologists in 2015 (Regehr et al. 2016; Wiig et al. 2015). The scary question is this: what do Arctic residents do if there are actually as many as 58,000?
See my new book (Crockford 2019) for the full rationale and references used to arrive at this figure.
The bottom line: it is scientifically unacceptable for the PBSG to continue to refuse to provide an extrapolated ‘best guess’ global estimate for polar bears, given that the scientifically accurate estimate they crave is essentially unattainable. An estimate of about 39,000 (range 26,000-58,000) at 2018 is not only plausible but scientifically defensible. Read the rest of this entry »
Recently released is the UN’s report, dramatically titled: “Human Cost of Disasters: An Overview of the Last 20 Years (2000-2019). This report stems from the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and its Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED).
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