THE Global Warming Policy Foundation has since released an excellent short video showing why the polar bear no longer serves as the icon of the climate change movement :
DIRE predictions of an “ice-free” Arctic have remained popular on the climate change fear-mongering circuit, owing to the psychological and political currency of all things melting and not least the emotional relevance applicable to the fate of the Arctic’s most famous resident and ‘global warming’ mascot – the polar bear.
SOME of the failed Arctic sea-ice predictions by alarmists ‘scientists’ and the fake news media over the years :
“Arctic summers ice-free by 2013” (BBC 2007)
“Could all Arctic ice be gone by 2012?” (AP 2007)
“Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?”(National Geographic 2007)
“Imagine yourself in a world five years from now, where there is no more ice over the Arctic” – Tim Flannery (2008)
“North Pole could be ice-free in 2008” – Mark Serreze (New Scientist 2008)
“Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014” (USA Today 2009)
“Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within 4 years” (Guardian 2012)
“Say Goodbye to Arctic Summer Ice” (Live Science 2013)
“Ice-free Arctic in two years heralds methane catastrophe – scientist” (The Guardian 2013)
“Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013” (Sierra Club 2013)
“Next year or the year after, the Arctic will be free of ice’” – Peter Wadhams (The Guardian 2016)
MINIMUM sea-ice extent has been trending up over the past twelve years. The EXACT opposite of what the mainstream media and ‘97% experts’ have been telling you :
ARCTIC temperatures and melt cycles correlate almost perfectly with ocean circulation cycles (AMO), and show no correlation with atmospheric CO2 levels :
Reykjavik, Iceland Temperatures Vs. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
NO other icon of ‘Global Warming’ epitomises its very own false narrative like the polar bear does for ‘Climate Change’.
WITH deadly irony, polar bear numbers have grown dramatically as carbon dioxide emissions have risen in lock-step. A CO2 correlation, at last!
INDIGENOUS Inuit’s of Northern Canada are now facing the very real task of having to cull the population as “the polar bear may have exceeded the co-existence threshold.”
“Inuit believe there are now so many bears that public safety has become a major concern,”
“Public safety concerns, combined with the effects of polar bears on other species, suggest that in many Nunavut communities, the polar bear may have exceeded the co-existence threshold.”
Susan Crockford is zoologist with more than 35 years experience, including published work on the Holocene history of Arctic animals. She is currently an adjunct professor at the University of Victoria, British Columbia.
It’s long past time for polar bear specialists to stop holding out for a scientifically accurate global estimate that will never be achieved and determine a reasonable and credible ‘best guess’. Since they have so far refused to do this, I have done it for them. My extrapolated estimate of 39,000 (range 26,000-58,000) at 2018 is not only plausible but scientifically defensible.
In 2014, the chairman of the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG) emailed me to say that their global population size number ‘has never been an estimate of total abundance in a scientific sense, but simply a qualified guess given to satisfy public demand.’
In my new book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, I contend that this situation will probably never change, so it’s time to stop holding out for a scientifically accurate global estimate and generate a reasonable and credible ‘best guess’. Recent surveys from several critical polar bear subpopulations have given us the information necessary to do this.
These new numbers make it possible to extrapolate from ‘known’ to ‘unknown’ subpopulations within so-called ‘sea ice ecoregions’ (defined in 2007 by polar bear scientists at the US Geological Survey, see Amstrup et al. 2007), as shown below, to update old estimates and generate new ones for never-studied areas.
USGS – Polar Bear Ecoregions
Since the PBSG has so far refused to take this step, I took on the challenge. I contend that an estimate of about 39,000 (range 26,000-58,000) at 2018 is not only plausible but scientifically defensible. See the graph below from my new book:
Global polar bear population size estimates to 2018. From Chapter 10 of The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened (Crockford 2019).
This new estimate for 2018 is a modest 4-6 fold increase over the 10,000 or so bears that existed in the 1960s and after 25 years, a credible increase over the estimate of 25,000 that the PBSG offered in 1993 (Wiig et al. 1995).
However, my new estimate is much larger than the improbable figure of about 26,000 (range 22,000-31,000) offered by PGSG biologists in 2015 (Regehr et al. 2016; Wiig et al. 2015). The scary question is this: what do Arctic residents do if there are actually as many as 58,000?
See my new book (Crockford 2019) for the full rationale and references used to arrive at this figure.
The bottom line: it is scientifically unacceptable for the PBSG to continue to refuse to provide an extrapolated ‘best guess’ global estimate for polar bears, given that the scientifically accurate estimate they crave is essentially unattainable. An estimate of about 39,000 (range 26,000-58,000) at 2018 is not only plausible but scientifically defensible. Read the rest of this entry »
CLASSIC example of the climate theory-obsessed BBC defaulting to “CLIMATE CHANGE” in order to push their misanthropic agenda.
DIVING a little deeper, reveals what is really going on in Mongolia…
“Ulaanbaatar is going through the same process of economic development as western cities did a century or so ago. And the answer to their problems is the same – economic development, which allows them to clean up their environment at the same time as improving standards of living.
As for her claim that this will become the norm, the reverse is true. Across the world, cities are managing to improve air quality. And they are doing it by better technology, not by stopping using fossil fuels.
Certainly the idea, which is implied by Hegarty, that they could replace it with ‘clean energy’ sources would end up with most of them freezing to death.”
Another preposterous “blame it on global warming” video from the BBC:
Mongolia: A toxic warning to the world
All over the world cities are grappling with apocalyptic air pollution but the small capital of Mongolia is suffering from some of the worst in the world.
And the problem is intrinsically linked to climate change.
The country has already warmed by 2.2 degrees, forcing thousands of people to abandon the countryside and the traditional herding lifestyle every year for the smog-choked city where 90% of children are breathing toxic air every day.
Population Reporter Stephanie Hegarty finds out why.
“IN a brilliant strategic move, it was decided that the environmentalist movement was a new and promising vehicle for obtaining political influence and power.”
– Jennifer Marohasy PhD
Environment Minister Melissa Price has linked this week’s devastating bushfires in Victoria to climate change, saying there is “no doubt” of its impact on Australia
As Victorians in the state’s east survey the damage done to their properties by bushfires, the Environment Minister said Australians across the nation had suffered from the nation’s hottest summer on record.
“There’s no doubt that there’s many people who have suffered over this summer. We talk about the Victorian bushfires; (in) my home state of Western Australia we’ve also got fires there,” she told Sky News this morning.
“There’s no doubt that climate change is having an impact on us. There’s no denying that.”
Coalition figures, including former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, have been reluctant in the past to link climate change to recent natural disasters such as bushfires.
MEANWHILE, residents of Tonimbuk, a small rural community heaviest hit by Victoria’s weekend bushfires, believe dangerously high fuel loads on vacant crown land contributed to the ferocity of a blaze that left Country Fire Authority firefighters unable to defend some properties…
Residents of a small rural community heaviest hit by Victoria’s weekend bushfires believe dangerously high fuel loads on vacant crown land contributed to the ferocity of a blaze that left Country Fire Authority firefighters unable to defend some properties.
The quiet hamlet of Tonimbuk, about 90km east of Melbourne, felt the brunt of the fire crisis, with seven properties destroyed and 11,000ha burnt by a lightning-strike blaze that raced out of the Bunyip State Forest.
Andrew Clarke, the owner of the Jinks Creek Winery destroyed by the Bunyip fire, believes a bureaucratic blunder cost him his life’s work.
He said a planned burn-off in 60ha between his vineyard and the state park was not done because of concerns for local birdlife.
“If they’d been doing the burning off they should have been doing, our place might still be there,’’ he told The Australian.
“They told me birds were nesting. I told them: ‘If we don’t do a burn-off now, there’ll be no birds. There’ll be no goannas, no snakes, no wallabies. They’ll all be barbecued.’’
Another Tonimbuk resident, cartoonist Mark Knight, said some residents were left to defend their homes without assistance from the CFA. “We fought this fire for three days on our own,’’ he said. “Black Saturday they were all over us. They were fantastic. We didn’t see them this year.’’
Mark Knight with his sons Jack & Elliott, in Tonimbuk, managed to save their property after a bushfire engulfed the Bunyip state forest in Victoria. Picture: Stuart McEvoy.
THE Daily Telegraph’s climate ‘rationalist’ Miranda Devine with the brutal truth as to what is really fuelling 21st Century bushfires, overrun with ‘Green’ fodder…
On Tuesday, she linked the fires to climate change, claiming there is “no doubt” of its impact on Australia.
“There’s no doubt that there’s many people who have suffered over this summer. We talk about the Victorian bushfires … There’s no doubt that climate change is having an impact on us. There’s no denying that.”
Sorry, minister, it wasn’t climate change that caused the latest bushfires which have so far destroyed nine homes in Victoria, and it wasn’t climate change that killed almost 200 people in the Black Saturday fires ten years ago.
The real culprit is green ideology which opposes the necessary hazard reduction of fuel loads in national parks and which prevents landholders from clearing vegetation around their homes.
The ongoing poor management of national parks and state forests in Victoria and green obstruction of fire mitigation strategies has led to dangerously high fuel loads over the past decade.
That means that when fires do inevitably break out they are so intense that they are devilishly difficult for firefighters to contain. As a federal parliamentary inquiry heard in 2003, if you quadruple the ground fuel, you get a 13-fold increase in the heat generated by a fire.
Locals know the truth. Andrew Clarke, owner of Jinks Creek Winery, which has been destroyed by a fire which raged out of the Bunyip State Forest, “begged” for fuel reduction burns to protect his property.
“I’ve been begging them [Forest Fire Management Victoria] for 20 years to burn off the state forest at the back of our place and still to this day it hasn’t happened,” he told the ABC’s Country Hour.
Clarke said a planned burn-off was called off because of concerns about nesting birds.
So how did that work out for the birds?
Just three weeks ago, Victoria’s former chief fire officer Ewan Waller warned that state forest fuel loads were reaching deadly, Black Saturday levels. No one paid any attention.
But you can bet Premier Daniel Andrews will hide behind the climate change furphy.
Parroting green lies suits politicians because then they can avoid blame for their own culpability.
The Black Saturday Bushfire Royal Commission criticised the Victorian government for its failure to reduce fuel loads in state forests. It recommended more than doubling the amount of hazard reduction burns.
Instead, in the last three years, alone, the Andrews government has slashed the amount of public land being hazard reduced by almost two thirds.
It’s a crime.
The wonder is that the Morrison government is helping him with his alibi.
MELBOURNE, Jan 13. – Nearly 40 bushfires were reported throughout Victoria today when the temperature in Melbourne rose to 105deg [41°C].
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So hot was the sand at West St. Kilda yesterday that life-savers, in a march past, broke formation for the first time in the history of Victorian life-saving clubs and had to resume the march along the water’s edge.
The secretary of the Royal Life Saving Society of Victoria (Mr. Pier dell) described yesterday as one of the worst he had known on Victorian beaches.
AUSTRALIAN politicians push a never-ending barrage of fact-free global warming climate change alarmism, fear and propaganda on the taxpayer in order to stoke fear and justify the spending of billions upon billions of their hard-earned money on fake fixes to a fake scam.
HOW many more billions of taxpayers hard-earned money will be spent on the greatest pseudoscientific scam ever perpetrated against mankind before our politicians learn how to google “TROVE“? Basic climate history, documenting events no different to today that completely trashes their costly, fake, political, man-made climate change scam costing the country and the planet an estimated $2,000,000,000,000 US (2 Trillion) per year, every year!
ENOUGH is enough. People’s livelihoods, their communities and economies are being ‘burned’ alive by gutless and superstitious politicians on a costly and dangerous crusade of “Save The Planet” hubris driven by politics, ideology and groupthink, pseudoscientific climate change dogma.
“CLIMATE alarmism is a gigantic fraud: it only survives by suppressing dissent and by spending tens of billions of dollars of public money every year on pseudo-scientific propaganda.”
– Leo Goldstein
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SEA-LEVEL RISE alarmism is just one in a long line of propaganda tools used by the Climate Crisis Industry to promote the narrative that human CO2 emissions are causing dangerous global warming climate change.
VERY little of the carefully orchestrated fear-mongering is based on observed reality and empirical evidence, rather, worst-case climate model scenarios pushed into the unaccountable future, designed to scare you and policy makers into (costly) “climate action now!”.
SEA level alarmism holds significant implications for the public who bear the burden of carbon-dioxide related taxes. Those living within coastal areas, constrained by further punitive imposts as insurance companies exploit the climate of fear for their own profit.
SEA levels vary by geographical region from positive to neutral to negative. Where positive sea-level ‘rise’ is concerned, the best science demonstrates that there is no immediate or long-term crisis in play. Importantly, no acceleration has been detected in the era of industrialisation.
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VIV Forbes of the Carbon Sense Coalition is a member of the climate-realist think tank The Salt Bush Club – a group of famed ex-industry leaders and climate science experts fighting back against dangerous and costly climate alarmism with fact-based reports filled with reason and common sense. Not hyper-climate alarmism and climate-model based theory that underpins mainstream media climate reporting.
FROM their About page:
INTRODUCING THE SALTBUSH CLUB
Members, Skills and Concerns
“We have been listening to scare-mongers and panicky children for too long – it’s time to listen to sensible people and grown-ups.” November 2018
The Saltbush Club is an unplanned venture. Tapping a deep vein of public concern about the Paris climate agreement, it just grew. In about a month, with zero corporate or government support, a few lone individuals have attracted an imposing line-up of sensible people who are well informed on all aspects of the climate debate, and on the growing energy, water and infrastructure problems facing Australia. Many are only prepared to publicise their concern since they have been freed from corporate, academic or government restraints. They are now expressing long-held but often-suppressed opinions.
A much larger group of “Silent Members” have indicated support, but do not want their names made public because they fear that exposure would harm their prospects for employment, promotion or business. They will help, but silently.
All Saltbush members are concerned that climate-alarm policies promoted by most politicians are not based on sound science, and are already causing great damage to Australian industry, jobs and consumers.
Members include people with formal qualifications and experience in geology, physics, chemistry, meteorology, astronomy, climatology, spectroscopy, electromagnetic radiation, geophysics, geochemistry, land forms, sea levels, vulcanology, palynology, engineering, metallurgy, law, medicine, veterinary science, pharmacy, pathology, sociology, classics, economics, accounting, ecology, soil science, environmental science, carbon accounting, pollution control, mathematics, statistics, electronics, communications, computer science, modelling and forecasting. No longer can it be claimed that there is “no debate among scientists”.
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They understand that the war on hydro-carbon fuels and grazing animals in Australia is not based on sound science, but is part of a broad international agenda designed to strengthen UN agencies, centralise decision making and weaken property rights with international rules and taxes.
They aim to change the climate of public opinion, thus changing the political agenda.
There is no consensus – it is time for a debate.
On behalf of the founders:
Jerry Ellis Chairman Hugh Morgan Jo Nova Media Director Ian Plimer Viv Forbes Executive Director
Dr G M Derrick reports the simple facts on the state of sea-level rise around Sydney Harbour over the past 132 years of records.
THE information is what we should be receiving from our politicians and media. Instead the information we receive about climate change and sea-levels is filled with exaggeration, alarmism, ‘homogenisation’, and plenty of politics in order to drive a political agenda of climate catastrophe in order to justify costly fixes, schemes, scams and taxes.
THE big losers – empirically-based science, the simple truth and the taxpayer who is forced to pay billions upon billions for fake fixes (windmills, solar panels and carbon taxes) to a fake scam.
There has been NO significant sea level rise in the harbour for the past 120 years, and what little there has been is about the height of a matchbox over a century.
Along the northern beaches of Sydney, at Collaroy there has been no suggestion of any sea level rise there for the past 140 years. Casual observations from Bondi Beach 1875 to the present also suggest the same benign situation.
A rush to judgement by local councils and State Governments by legislating harsh laws and building covenants along our coastlines now seems misplaced.
The falsehoods and mendacity of the IPCC and climate alarmists should be rejected out of hand, and efforts be made to ensure that science, not propaganda, defines our school curricula in matters of climate and sea levels
“Sea level has been rising for the last ten thousand years, since the last Ice Age…the question is whether sea level rise is accelerating owing to human caused emissions. It doesn’t look like there is any great acceleration, so far, of sea level rise associated with human warming. These predictions of alarming sea level rise depend on massive melting of the big continental glaciers — Greenland and Antarctica. The Antarctic ice sheet is actually growing. Greenland shows large multi-decadal variability. …. There is no evidence so far that humans are increasing sea level rise in any kind of a worrying way.” — Dr. Judith Curry, video interview published 9 August 2017
“Observed sea level rise over the last century has averaged about 8 inches, although local values may be substantially more or less based on local vertical land motion, land use, regional ocean circulations and tidal variations.“
THOUGH not as ‘scientific’, it is interesting to use the visual point of Fort Denison to note the high-tide line and the notable absence of SL rise since 1885 to present :
CLIMATE change hysteria and groupthink propaganda freely and uncritically spread by the compliant mainstream media has influenced local municipalities to wrongly and deceptively raise rates to cover “climate change” threats and damage as well insurance companies raising premiums. The result has been a devaluing of many coastal homes of up to 25% and the same increase in insurance premiums.
HERE’s an example of what the NSW Govt and Lake Macquarie Council are projecting for the 21st Century:
THE very same modelled exaggeration alarmism is evident in the ensemble of U.N. IPCC CMIP5 climate models that basically act as evidence that drives the entire $2,000,000,000,000 US per year (2 Trillion)Climate Crisis Industry and associated climate policy settings that are sending Australian and other Western nations’ electricity prices through the roof, forcing businesses to close and/or move offshore and causing rampant energy poverty, hurting our most vulnerable.
ENERGY poverty, rising insurance premiums, business closures, job losses and the highest electricity prices in the world is the grim reality of what life looks like under the totalitarian rule of the feel-good ‘Greens’. The zero-emissions zealots who want to force us backwards down the energy ladder to the days of human, animal and solar power.
JUST as socialist central planning failed miserably before it was replaced by free market economies, green central planning will have to be discarded before Australia and other Western nations, crippled by pseudoscientific climatology and the mad rush into costly and intermittent ‘green’ energy, will see a return to energy security, competitive pricing, business prosperity, job opportunities and a ‘liveable’ existence for our most vulnerable.
TRUST in the mainstream media is at an all time low.
A 2018 Monmouth University poll found that 77% of the public believe major ‘news’ outlets report “fake news”. A sharp rise from 63% who felt that way the previous year. A 2018 Axios poll found that 92% of Conservatives believe the media intentionally reports fake news. Concerns vindicated this week by two glaring examples of blatant fake news in the Covington Catholic high school and BuzzFeed media fiascos.
NONE of this is surprising, considering that 92%+ of the mainstream media is monopolised by Left-leaning journalists and editorial boards.
FAKE NEWS is par for the course in the Climate Crisis Industry where gross exaggeration, vague causation, alarmist predictions and even outright falsehoods are common place and excused away as acts of nobility in the righteous quest to “Save the Planet”.
ONE of the perks of climate change scepticism (or realism) is the ability to exploit an almost unlimited supply of wild climate predictions made in the recent past by esteemed ‘experts’ and scientific bodies.
DIRE predictions of an “ice-free” Arctic have remained popular on the climate fear-mongering circuit, owing to the psychological currency of things melting and not least the emotional relevance applicable to the fate of the Arctic’s most famous resident – the polar bear…
CLAIMS that Arctic sea ice is disappearing are patently false. There has been no trend in Arctic sea ice extent since the start of MASIE records in 2006.
THE daily bombardment of fake climate news by the Climate Crisis Media helps foment a conventional wisdom and an accepted world view that there really is a “climate crisis”. This leads to gullible and virtue-signalling politicians, pressured by eco-activist minorities, to enact draconian and costly UN-based climate policies that are doing far more damage to people’s livelihoods and their economies, right now, than any purported 1-2°C “fabricated” temperature rise could ever do by 2100.
“No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world.”
– Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment
“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic and environmental policy.“
– TimothyWirth,
President of the UN Foundation
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IN the era of Global Warming Climate Change hysteria, every and any “extreme weather” or climatic event is instantly blamed on humans and their wicked ways.
RUSHING to ideological and schizophrenic judgement is at best lazy. At worst, such deliberate grandstanding prevents salient solutions to real environmental problems and climate mitigation challenges we face everyday as a society.
THIS fashionable and dangerous eco-paradigm no more obvious than in the tragic California fires, still smouldering.
MENTION “land management” as a solution to prevent future wildfire catastrophes, and the climate mafia will viciously deride one a “denier”, “flat-earther”, “right wing nut job”, “shill of the oil industry” or maybe a “racist” if you’re still hanging around.
ANY name will do, as long as the pejorative is sufficient enough to prevent the conversation shifting away from “CLIMATE CHANGE!”.
SO, while California burned and the Climate Ambulance Chasers blamed, more measured minds were assessing causes of the fires with data and reasoning instead of defaulting to emotions, politics and groupthink ideology.
Paul Homewood is one who thinks rather than blames. His research helping to quell the superstition and paranoia endlessly levelled by global warming zealots whenever catastrophe strikes.
HOMEWOOD then nuts out the data surrounding the Cali fires, dispelling alarmist claims of CO2-induced “extreme weather” as the root cause …
CFACT are of course dead right. There is really very little point in blaming weather/climate when you can do nothing about it anyway. It is government’s job to tackle the problems they can do something about.
But as for claims about climate change, is there actually anything to them?
Let’s take a look at temperatures for a start.
Orland, CA is near to the Paradise fire and has good, long term meteorological data. Using data from the Western Regional Climate Center, we can plot summertime daily maximums back to 1903:
Of course it has also been dry this year, but again nothing unusual as far as that part of California is concerned. ( Div 2 is the Sacramento Drainage Division):
Anybody who uses tries to blame California’s wildfires on “extreme weather” is not only flying in the face of the facts, but also failing to deal with the real causes.
A dose of reality on wildfires.a) forecasted last year in March,this year on May 17 https://t.co/QmsaEdd4S7 Wet California March/April set stage for extra fuel Hot Summer foecast May 19https://t.co/jumvQGYKwL all natural reasons, forecast in advance BTW wildfires down since 30s pic.twitter.com/AJ41ohrQtK
NEWS FLASH! Climate change and drought would thin out forests. Jerry Brown admits that the forests are overly dense. How do you get overly dense forests in a drought? Climate change didn’t cause all the tightly packed homes to be built in the forests.
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“THE DUST BOWL ERA”
US drought was far worse in the 1930’s, during the “dust bowl” era, when CO2 was at “safe levels”:
LET’s study the data and the facts before we yell “GLOBAL WARMING” at every pass. We will achieve a lot more for a fraction of the political, social and environmental cost!
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