CLIMATE history provides an important cross-reference against the current hype over “extreme weather” references used in today’s political ‘climate’.
ALSO provides fascinating reading.
OF particular interest is the “strengthened thermal gradient” refereed to by Hubert Lamb as contributing to the storminess of the LIA. That is, loosely, the increased difference between polar and equatorial temperatures leading to increased atmospheric disturbance. Ergo, in a warming world we would expect less “extreme weather” events, and current data bears this out, precisely…
By Paul Homewood
With stormy weather in the news at the moment, it is worth recalling what HH Lamb had to say about the prevalence of storms in the Little Ice Age. From his book, “Climate, History and the Modern World”:-
It is a clear reminder that, in this part of the world at least, storms tend to be much worse in a colder world.
The other point of interest, however, is his reference that sea levels may have been 50cm lower than between AD 1000 and 1400. This of course refers to the period around 1700, and we don’t have much idea of how far sea levels rose in the 18thC.
It is generally accepted though that since the late 19thC they have risen by maybe 20 cm. This is strong evidence that current sea level rise is simply part of a much longer term pattern.
It is important…
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COGNITIVE BIAS : Climate Change Alarmists Refuse To Accept ‘The Science’ That Proves Extreme Weather Events Are NOT IncreasingPosted: March 18, 2019
“WHEN the heart rules the head,
passion takes over reason.”
– Ortega y Gasset
“IT would not be impossible to prove with sufficient repetition and a psychological understanding of the people concerned that a square is in fact a circle. They are mere words, and words can be molded until they clothe ideas and disguise.”
― Joseph Goebbels
THE widely held belief that ‘Extreme Weather’ has become worse, as a result of man-made carbon dioxide emissions, is a tribute to the success of climate change propaganda pushed relentlessly by CO2-centric politicians and compliant mainstream media.
PROMOTING Extreme Weather is specifically designed to shift public opinion about the purported seriousness of human-induced
global warming climate change, through the use of emotional imagery and dire prognostications in order for draconian and costly climate policy to be accepted and implemented with as little resistance as possible from the taxpaying public.
COGNITIVE BIAS fuelled by an era of mass hysteria, delusion, groupthink and panic has helped foster dark and far-fetched clichés of a current “climate crisis”, that is an “existential threat” which will “end civilisation by 2030”.
THANKS to the dramatic rise in personal weather recording devices – smart phones and CCTV – the sampling rate (what you see or hear directly) of Extreme Weather events, broadcast via social and mainstream media, has risen dramatically in recent years.
BUT, have actual Extreme Weather events increased in frequency or intensity? In particular, over long-term ‘climate’ scales?
THE short answer is a big fat NO! Extreme Weather events have not increased in frequency or intensity as carbon dioxide emissions have increased. In many cases the exact opposite is occurring.
THIS ‘inconvenient’ fact has been proven by empirical data and confirmed by the last two (warmist) U.N. IPCC reports on Extreme Weather: SREX (AR5) 2013 report and the latest SR15 report released August, 2018:
- SORRY ALARMISTS : The IPCC Once Again Reports Extreme Weather Events Have Not Increased | Climatism (SR15 2018)
- No steel roof required: IPCC dials back the fear of extreme weather | Climatism (SREX AR5 2013)
EXTREME WEATHER METRICS
UN IPCC : “Low confidence in the sign of drought trends since 1950 at global scale…likely to be trends in some regions of the world, including increases in drought in the Mediterranean and W Africa & decreases in droughts in central N America & NW Australia” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
NO historical trend in U.S. drought as CO₂ rises :
1934 : WHEN CO₂ WAS AT ‘SAFE’ LEVELS
IN 1934, when CO₂ was at ‘safe’ levels, severe to extreme drought covered around 80% of the entire U.S. Such conditions endured for most of the decade known as the “Dust Bowl” era :
400 PPM ‘DANGEROUS’ CO₂
CURRENT U.S. drought conditions with CO₂ at ‘dangerous’ levels (400PPM) :
CALIFORNIA’s “PERMANENT DROUGHT” UPDATE
THANKS to superstitious climate kiddies wagging school, in just 3 years, California went from 97% in drought to just 1% :
WHEN CO₂ was at ‘safe’ levels, droughts in California lasted for 200 years :
“There is low confidence due to limited evidence, however, that anthropogenic climate change has affected the frequency and the magnitude of floods.” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
ACCORDING to the EPA, the low-CO2 1930s had (by far) the worst heatwaves in US history :
WHEN CO₂ was at ‘safe levels’, Adelaide’s temperature climbed above 100°F, six days in a row.
ADELAIDE – March, 1940 :
- Friday – 24°C (74.4F)
- Saturday – 24°C (75.7F)
- Sunday – 28°C (81.7F)
- Monday – 34°C (93.5F)
- Tuesday – 31°C (88.4F)
- Wednesday – 35°C (94.9F)
- Thursday – 40°C (103.9F)
- Friday – 42°C (107.7F)
- Saturday – 43°C (110.1F)
- Sunday – 42°C (108.3F)
- Monday – 42°C (107.9F)
- Tuesday – 40°C (103.6F)
GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONES
“Numerous studies towards and beyond AR5 have reported a decreasing trend
in the global number of tropical cyclones and/or the globally accumulated cyclonic energy”– UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
“There is only low confidence regarding changes in global tropical cyclone numbers under global warming over the last four decades.” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL CYCLONES
AUSTRALIAN tropical cyclones are declining in both intensity and frequency as CO₂ rises :
GLOBAL Hurricanes are declining in both frequency and intensity as CO₂ increases :
CAT 3+ U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes (per decade) declining rapidly as CO₂ emissions rise :
FLORIDA Major Hurricane Strikes – Still No Trend :
2018 was one of the least active US tornado years on record, despite record and rising CO₂ emissions.
AS of October, a new record low tornado count was set. The cumulative total for 2018 is 759; the previous lowest number of tornadoes for this date was 761. The SPC has records extending back 65 years.
This lack of tornadic storms in recent years should also correlate with lesser severe thunderstorm activity in general in the U.S., since the conditions which produce large hail and damaging winds are generally the same as are required for tornadoes (strong instability, plentiful moisture, and wind shear). – Roy Spencer PhD
THE frequency of strong to violent tornadoes is also decreasing :
THE trend is clearly down across the board. Yet why are no mainstream journalists curious about this?
NB// IPCC SR15 “Extreme Weather” report made no mention of Tornadoes. Nor, the mainstream media!
GLOBAL WEATHER DISASTERS / LOSSES
GLOBAL weather disasters/losses as a percentage of global GDP are declining as CO₂ emissions rise.
THROUGH 7 months of 2018 weather disasters as % GDP were on record (low) pace…
NB// LOSS data does not include the two big CAT4’s that struck the US in 2018 – Florence (Sep) and Michael (Oct).
BIAS BY OMISSION
IN my opinion, the worst form of propaganda is ‘bias by omission’ – information and facts that you are ‘not’ told about, in order to keep the truth from you.
THE mainstream media has not and will not report the facts on “Extreme Weather”, as clearly laid out in the science and data above, because such facts are obviously extremely ‘inconvenient’ to their “catastrophic” man-made global warming narrative.
VITAL information central to the potential seriousness of climate change – Extreme Weather – has been purposely omitted by the mainstream media and replaced by emotions, alarmism and exaggerations in order to fit the climate-calamity narrative designed to scare you into belief and obedience.
THIS is why the
global warming climate change debate has become so dangerously deceptive and dishonest. Climate truths hidden from you and replaced with a narrative far more acceptable – Hollywood-style climate hysteria based on alarmism, increased sampling rates and overheated, CO2-centric climate models that do not accord with observed reality.
DID not see either of these instructive graphs painted on a placards at any of the kiddie climate rallies last Friday. Guess they don’t fit their ‘catastrophic’ climate narrative…
PERHAPS the climate kids would have been wise to read and learn the words of H.L. Mencken, before being forced out by their parents and teachers to act as standard bearers of new radical eco-socialism, protected by ‘innocence’ and lack of age :
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule it.” – H.L. Mencken
“CLIMATE alarmism is a gigantic fraud:
it only survives by suppressing dissent and by spending
tens of billions of dollars of public money
every year on pseudo-scientific propaganda.”
– Leo Goldstein
SEA-LEVEL RISE alarmism is just one in a long line of propaganda tools used by the Climate Crisis Industry to promote the narrative that human CO2 emissions are causing dangerous
global warming climate change.
VERY little of the carefully orchestrated fear-mongering is based on observed reality and empirical evidence, rather, worst-case climate model scenarios pushed into the unaccountable future, designed to scare you and policy makers into (costly) “climate action now!”.
SEA level alarmism holds significant implications for the public who bear the burden of carbon-dioxide related taxes. Those living within coastal areas, constrained by further punitive imposts as insurance companies exploit the climate of fear for their own profit.
SEA levels vary by geographical region from positive to neutral to negative. Where positive sea-level ‘rise’ is concerned, the best science demonstrates that there is no immediate or long-term crisis in play. Importantly, no acceleration has been detected in the era of industrialisation.
VIV Forbes of the Carbon Sense Coalition is a member of the climate-realist think tank The Salt Bush Club – a group of famed ex-industry leaders and climate science experts fighting back against dangerous and costly climate alarmism with fact-based reports filled with reason and common sense. Not hyper-climate alarmism and climate-model based theory that underpins mainstream media climate reporting.
FROM their About page:
INTRODUCING THE SALTBUSH CLUB
Members, Skills and Concerns
“We have been listening to scare-mongers and panicky children for too long – it’s time to listen to sensible people and grown-ups.”
The Saltbush Club is an unplanned venture. Tapping a deep vein of public concern about the Paris climate agreement, it just grew. In about a month, with zero corporate or government support, a few lone individuals have attracted an imposing line-up of sensible people who are well informed on all aspects of the climate debate, and on the growing energy, water and infrastructure problems facing Australia. Many are only prepared to publicise their concern since they have been freed from corporate, academic or government restraints. They are now expressing long-held but often-suppressed opinions.
A much larger group of “Silent Members” have indicated support, but do not want their names made public because they fear that exposure would harm their prospects for employment, promotion or business. They will help, but silently.
All Saltbush members are concerned that climate-alarm policies promoted by most politicians are not based on sound science, and are already causing great damage to Australian industry, jobs and consumers.
Members include people with formal qualifications and experience in geology, physics, chemistry, meteorology, astronomy, climatology, spectroscopy, electromagnetic radiation, geophysics, geochemistry, land forms, sea levels, vulcanology, palynology, engineering, metallurgy, law, medicine, veterinary science, pharmacy, pathology, sociology, classics, economics, accounting, ecology, soil science, environmental science, carbon accounting, pollution control, mathematics, statistics, electronics, communications, computer science, modelling and forecasting. No longer can it be claimed that there is “no debate among scientists”.
They understand that the war on hydro-carbon fuels and grazing animals in Australia is not based on sound science, but is part of a broad international agenda designed to strengthen UN agencies, centralise decision making and weaken property rights with international rules and taxes.
They aim to change the climate of public opinion, thus changing the political agenda.
There is no consensus – it is time for a debate.
On behalf of the founders:
Jerry Ellis Chairman
Jo Nova Media Director
Viv Forbes Executive Director
See a list of founding members here: https://saltbushclub.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/saltbush-founding-members.pdf
Dr G M Derrick reports the simple facts on the state of sea-level rise around Sydney Harbour over the past 132 years of records.
THE information is what we should be receiving from our politicians and media. Instead the information we receive about climate change and sea-levels is filled with exaggeration, alarmism, ‘homogenisation’, and plenty of politics in order to drive a political agenda of climate catastrophe in order to justify costly fixes, schemes, scams and taxes.
THE big losers – empirically-based science, the simple truth and the taxpayer who is forced to pay billions upon billions for fake fixes (windmills, solar panels and carbon taxes) to a fake scam.
By Dr G M Derrick
- There has been NO significant sea level rise in the harbour for the past 120 years, and what little there has been is about the height of a matchbox over a century.
- Along the northern beaches of Sydney, at Collaroy there has been no suggestion of any sea level rise there for the past 140 years. Casual observations from Bondi Beach 1875 to the present also suggest the same benign situation.
- A rush to judgement by local councils and State Governments by legislating harsh laws and building covenants along our coastlines now seems misplaced.
- The falsehoods and mendacity of the IPCC and climate alarmists should be rejected out of hand, and efforts be made to ensure that science, not propaganda, defines our school curricula in matters of climate and sea levels
Full article: https://saltbushclub.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/sea-levels-sydney.pdf [PDF, 3 MB]
CLIMATISM SL SUPPORTS
SEAS have risen 400 feet or 120,000 mm since the end of the last Ice Age, around 15,000-20,000 years ago :
SEA-LEVEL RISE ACCELERATION?
WHAT is pertinent to the sea-level rise debate is whether SLR is accelerating due to human CO2 emissions.
“Sea level has been rising for the last ten thousand years, since the last Ice Age…the question is whether sea level rise is accelerating owing to human caused emissions. It doesn’t look like there is any great acceleration, so far, of sea level rise associated with human warming. These predictions of alarming sea level rise depend on massive melting of the big continental glaciers — Greenland and Antarctica. The Antarctic ice sheet is actually growing. Greenland shows large multi-decadal variability. …. There is no evidence so far that humans are increasing sea level rise in any kind of a worrying way.” — Dr. Judith Curry, video interview published 9 August 2017
“Observed sea level rise over the last century has averaged about 8 inches, although local values may be substantially more or less based on local vertical land motion, land use, regional ocean circulations and tidal variations.“
ACCORDING to “the science” there has been no stat-sig or relevant acceleration of sea-level rise since industrialisation :
SOMETHING other than carbon dioxide caused seas to rise, at the current steady rate, around 1790 :
(NB// 85% of man-made CO2 was emitted after 1945.)
Relative Sea Level Trend
680-140 Sydney, Fort Denison 1 & 2, Australia
ONE third of all human (CO2) influence has occurred over the past 20-30 years which has not caused acceleration of sea-levels, a jot :
THOUGH not as ‘scientific’, it is interesting to use the visual point of Fort Denison to note the high-tide line and the notable absence of SL rise since 1885 to present :
COASTAL INSURANCE IMPLICATIONS
CLIMATE change hysteria and groupthink propaganda freely and uncritically spread by the compliant mainstream media has influenced local municipalities to wrongly and deceptively raise rates to cover “climate change” threats and damage as well insurance companies raising premiums. The result has been a devaluing of many coastal homes of up to 25% and the same increase in insurance premiums.
HERE’s an example of what the NSW Govt and Lake Macquarie Council are projecting for the 21st Century:
OVERHEATED, CO2-CENTRIC U.N. IPCC CLIMATE MODELS
THE very same modelled
exaggeration alarmism is evident in the ensemble of U.N. IPCC CMIP5 climate models that basically act as evidence that drives the entire $2,000,000,000,000 US per year (2 Trillion) Climate Crisis Industry and associated climate policy settings that are sending Australian and other Western nations’ electricity prices through the roof, forcing businesses to close and/or move offshore and causing rampant energy poverty, hurting our most vulnerable.
IT’S OFFICIAL : South Australia Has The World’s Highest Power Prices!
(With the closure of the 1,550 MW Hazlewood power plant in Victoria, since this chart was produced, Victoria’s power prices are now nearing SA’s)
ENERGY poverty, rising insurance premiums, business closures, job losses and the highest electricity prices in the world is the grim reality of what life looks like under the totalitarian rule of the feel-good ‘Greens’. The zero-emissions zealots who want to force us backwards down the energy ladder to the days of human, animal and solar power.
JUST as socialist central planning failed miserably before it was replaced by free market economies, green central planning will have to be discarded before Australia and other Western nations, crippled by pseudoscientific climatology and the mad rush into costly and intermittent ‘green’ energy, will see a return to energy security, competitive pricing, business prosperity, job opportunities and a ‘liveable’ existence for our most vulnerable.
CONTRARY to popular thinking and clever marketing, there is no “consensus” on the theory of dangerous man-made climate change. Too many variables exist within the climate system to allow for certainty of future scenarios.
THIS doesn’t deter the $2,000,000,000,000 US per year (2 Trillion) Climate Crisis Industry who manufacture catastrophic climate scenarios (pushed far enough into the distant future as to not be held accountable) with a guarantee of climate calamity unless their utopian ‘green’ dreams are realised.
BUOYED by their recent House Congress win in the 2018 mid-term elections, the hard-Left of the American Democrat party, led by pinup-socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, have doubled-down on their pet global warming theory, proposing the radically-dystopian climate agenda, a Green New Deal.
FOR all the economic pain and social upheaval that inevitably ensues when draconian climate policy is enacted, it is only fair and reasonable for the taxpayer to ask one simple question about a climate which demands so much of their hard-earned money – “what is broken?”.
THE best way to answer this is to look at the current state of a set of common environmental metrics and analyse their relationship with carbon dioxide – the colourless, odourless, tasteless trace gas at the centre of the supposed “climate crisis”.
CLIMATE CHANGE METRICS
- EXTREME WEATHER (Heatwaves, Cyclones, Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Drought, Floods)
- SEA LEVELS
- POLAR BEARS
- GLOBAL GREENING
- GLOBAL FOOD PRODUCTION
- GLOBAL TEMPERATURE
IN the interests of “cherry-picking”, there are a myriad of environmental metrics that make up the climate system. The examples cited for the purpose of this report are the more common associations picked up by the press and interest groups to facilitate climate change discussion and ‘debate’.
*THE empirical evidence featured in this post is taken from the latest data supplied by government scientific agencies and peer-reviewed studies. Hyper and direct links supplied per sample.
STATE OF ARCTIC SEA-ICE : 2018 SUMMER MINIMUM
ARCTIC SEA-ICE EXTENT (September 2018)
MINIMUM sea-ice extent has been trending up over the past decade. The EXACT opposite of what the press and ‘97% experts’ have been telling you :
ARCTIC SEA-ICE EXTENT TO DATE
ARCTIC sea-ice extent is very close to the 1981-2010 median:
ARCTIC sea-ice extent is essentially unchanged since January 2006:
ARCTIC SEA-ICE VOLUME
THE area of the Arctic covered with thick sea ice has greatly expanded over the past eleven years:
SO far this month, ice volume gain has seen a record high:
AND January 9 Arctic sea ice volume has been increasing for over a decade:
*Support data Via Real Climate Science
MINIMUM sea-ice volume has been rising since 2007:
ARCTIC temperatures correlate almost perfectly with ocean circulation cycles, and show no correlation with atmospheric CO2 levels.
ALARMIST MAINSTREAM MEDIA ARCTIC HYSTERIA
CLIMATE ‘experts’ describe these record large increases in ice as an unprecedented meltdown:
global warming climate change scare has absolutely nothing to do with the environment or “Saving The Planet”. Rather, its roots lie in a misanthropic agenda engineered by the environmental movement of the mid 1970’s, who realised that doing something about claimed man-made “global warming” would play to quite a number of the Left’s social agendas.
IN THEIR (IPCC) OWN WORDS:
ENERGY rationing and the control of carbon dioxide, the direct byproduct of cheap, reliable hydrocarbon energy, has always been key to the Left’s Malthusian and misanthropic agenda of depopulation and deindustrialisation. A totalitarian ideology enforced through punitive emissions controls under the guise of “Saving The Planet”.
STANFORD University and The Royal Society’s resident global warming alarmist and population freak Paul R. Ehrlich spelled out in 1976 the Left’s anti-energy agenda that still underpins the current ‘climate change’ scare :
THE creator, fabricator and proponent of global warming alarmism Maurice Strong, founded UNEP and ‘science’ arm, the UN IPCC, under the premise of studying only human (CO2) driven causes of climate change.
STRONG and the UN’s charter and agenda was clearly laid out before the ‘science’ of climate change was butchered and tortured to fit the global warming narrative…
“Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsiblity to bring that about?” – Maurice Strong, founder of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
“Current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the affluent middle class – involving high meat intake, use of fossil fuels, appliances, air-conditioning, and suburban housing – are not sustainable.” – Maurice Strong, Rio Earth Summit
“It is the responsibility of each human being today to choose between the force of darkness and the force of light. We must therefore transform our attitudes, and adopt a renewed respect for the superior laws of Divine Nature.“ – Maurice Strong, first Secretary General of UNEP
FORMER Australian PM Julia Gillard, who implemented Australia’s ruinous and politically destructive 2011 carbon tax, was open in expressing its core function to ‘drive substantial changes in patterns of energy production and energy use.’
THE climate fix was in from the start, and now we’re paying for it, big time, in the form of unreliable energy, skyrocketing power bills, energy poverty, economic ruin and death…
STATE OF THE CLIMATE
CLIMATE catastrophists blame humans and their use of fossil fuels for the purported destruction of climate with “tipping points” and “runaway global warming” some of the emotional descriptors driving the narrative.
LET’S check out the most well known environmental metrics used by the Climate Crisis Industry to push their global warming scare and see exactly what damage fossil fuels and harmless byproduct CO2 are doing to Gaia…
ANTARCTICA, the ‘inconvenient’ pole, the naughty child, has been gaining ice mass and cooling for decades, despite a 20 per cent increase in atmospheric CO2, and model predictions to the contrary.
From the abstract :
Mass changes of the Antarctic ice sheet impact sea-level rise as climate changes, but recent rates have been uncertain. Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) data (2003–08) show mass gains from snow accumulation exceeded discharge losses by 82 ± 25 Gt a−1, reducing global sea-level rise by 0.23 mm a−1.
SEE more :
OVER the past decade, the Arctic has seen a large increase in multi-year, thick sea-ice.
LIKE Groundhog Day, The Guardian has published another emotion-filled, sea-level rise propaganda piece confirming how bad we are burning fossil fuels, causing Mother Nature to likely punish us with floods.
“Only 7% of the heat being trapped by greenhouse gases is stored in the atmosphere,” Hal begins. “Do you know where the other 93% lives?”
A teenager, wrists lined in aquamarine beaded bracelets, rubs sleep from her eyes. Returns her head to its resting position in her palm. The man seated behind me roots around in his briefcase for a breakfast bar. No one raises a hand.
“In the ocean,” Hal continues. “That heat is expanding the ocean, which is contributing to sea level rise, and it is also, more importantly, creating the setting for something we really don’t want to have happen: rapid melt of ice.”
“Greenhouse gases, atmosphere, expanding oceans, sea level rise, rapid melt of ice” – Shock, horror!!
LET’S break down the hysteria one more time for The Guardian
global warming climate change hysterics…
SEA LEVEL RISE
GLOBALLY, seas have risen 400 feet, 120 metres or 120,000mm over the past ~20,000 years, since the end of the last Ice Age.
Over the past 200 years seas have been rising at a relatively steady rate.
According to NOAA the current rate of global sea-level rise is 2.8 ± 0.4 mm/year:
Climate change and sea level rise over the past 20,000 years…
SEA-LEVEL RISE ACCELERATION?
SEAS have not stopped rising since the end of the last great Ice Age ~20,000 years ago. However, what is pertinent to the sea-level rise debate is whether SLR is accelerating due to human CO2 emissions. Read the rest of this entry »
Another year and the lovely people of Kiribati are still keeping their heads above water. More people should visit. It looks absolute paradise.
So what has changed around Kiribati lately?
Well, they have a new President(since 2016), and he seems to be not quite so gloom and doom as the last one. They had a terrible ferry sinking a few months ago. One of their sportsmen qualified for the Olympic team in weight lifting (First one ever, whoo hoo!), and the Kiribati government are looking to fill their sports education position. Anyone interested? They are upgrading their airports to accommodate more visitors, and a new Bar, “The Emperor” is now open on Friday nights. Other than that, the fishing, snorkelling, and surfing are still pretty good, and life goes on as usual in these lovely pacific Islands.
One thing that has not changed in Kiribati is the level of the…
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