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CLIMATISM : 2019 State Of The Climate Report

CLIMATISM - State Of The Climate 2019.png

CLIMATISM – 2019 State Of The Climate Report


CONTRARY to popular thinking and clever marketing, there is no “consensus” on the theory of dangerous man-made climate change. Too many variables exist within the climate system to allow for certainty of future scenarios.

THIS doesn’t deter the $2,000,000,000,000 US per year (2 Trillion) Climate Crisis Industry who manufacture catastrophic climate scenarios (pushed far enough into the distant future as to not be held accountable) with a guarantee of climate calamity unless their utopian ‘green’ dreams are realised.

BUOYED by their recent House Congress win in the 2018 mid-term elections, the hard-Left of the American Democrat party, led by pinup-socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, have doubled-down on their pet global warming theory, proposing the radically-dystopian climate agenda, a Green New Deal.

ACCORDING to PJMedia, the Green New Deal will cost approximately $49.109 Trillion in the first ten years, enough to fund Trump’s border wall 8,616 times over.

FOR all the economic pain and social upheaval that inevitably ensues when draconian climate policy is enacted, it is only fair and reasonable for the taxpayer to ask one simple question about a climate which demands so much of their hard-earned money – “what is broken?”.

THE best way to answer this is to look at the current state of a set of common environmental metrics and analyse their relationship with carbon dioxide – the colourless, odourless, tasteless trace gas at the centre of the supposed “climate crisis”.

CLIMATE CHANGE METRICS

  • ARCTIC
  • ANTARCTIC
  • EXTREME WEATHER (Heatwaves, Cyclones, Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Drought, Floods)
  • SEA LEVELS
  • SNOW
  • POLAR BEARS
  • WILDFIRES
  • GLOBAL GREENING
  • GLOBAL FOOD PRODUCTION
  • GLOBAL TEMPERATURE

IN the interests of “cherry-picking”, there are a myriad of environmental metrics that make up the climate system. The examples cited for the purpose of this report are the more common associations picked up by the press and interest groups to facilitate climate change discussion and ‘debate’.

*THE empirical evidence featured in this post is taken from the latest data supplied by government scientific agencies and peer-reviewed studies. Hyper and direct links supplied per sample.

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ARCTIC

STATE OF ARCTIC SEA-ICE : 2018 SUMMER MINIMUM

ARCTIC SEA-ICE EXTENT (September 2018)

MINIMUM sea-ice extent has been trending up over the past decade. The EXACT opposite of what the press and ‘97% experts’ have been telling you :

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ARCTIC SEA-ICE EXTENT TO DATE

ARCTIC sea-ice extent is very close to the 1981-2010 median:

ARCTIC sea-ice extent is essentially unchanged since January 2006:

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ARCTIC SEA-ICE VOLUME

THE area of the Arctic covered with thick sea ice has greatly expanded over the past eleven years:

SO far this month, ice volume gain has seen a record high:

january1-9arcticseaicevolumeincrease_shadow

Jan Arctic Sea-Ice Volume gain historic

AND January 9 Arctic sea ice volume has been increasing for over a decade:

*Support data Via Real Climate Science

MINIMUM sea-ice volume has been rising since 2007:

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@KiryeNet キリエ on Twitter : “The Arctic has been refreezing for 12 years…minimum sea ice volume has been rising since 2007”

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ARCTIC TEMPS 

ARCTIC temperatures correlate almost perfectly with ocean circulation cycles, and show no correlation with atmospheric CO2 levels.

reykjavik-iceland-temperatures-vs-the-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation

Reykjavik, Iceland Temperatures Vs. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

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ALARMIST MAINSTREAM MEDIA ARCTIC HYSTERIA

CLIMATE ‘experts’ describe these record large increases in ice as an unprecedented meltdown:

2019-01-11060118_shadow-789x1024

“Arctic meltdown” search

SEE also : CLIMATE DUD-PREDICTIONS : ‘Ice-Free’ Arctic Prophesies By The ‘97% Consensus’ And Compliant Mainstream Media | Climatism

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MORE on Arctic Sea-Ice Expansion :

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ANTARCTIC

THE South Pole has been a thorn in the side for warming alarmists with the giant ice continent gaining mass and cooling for decades. This despite a 20 per cent increase in atmospheric CO2, and model predictions to the contrary.

2015 NASA STUDY

GUARDIAN REPORT 2015

2016 NATURE STUDY

2017 STUDY

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WHAT’S DRIVING ANTARCTIC SEA-ICE GROWTH?

THANKS to the Journal of Climate by Josefino Comiso et al, we now know what’s driving the increase in Antarctic sea-ice. It’s – wait for it – cooling temperatures over the ocean surrounding Antarctica…

screen-shot-2018-04-16-at-7-23-27-am

Positive Trend in the Antarctic Sea Ice Cover and Associated Changes in Surface Temperature: Journal of Climate: Vol 30, No 6

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2016 SEA-ICE LOSS

DURING 2016 there was substantial sea-ice loss which still reflects on the record and has become a popular talking point for warmists aiming to discredit the Antarctic with its stable and ‘inconvenient’ ice growth over many decades.

after increasing slightly in recent decades, the sea ice extent around antarctica plummeted in 2016. credit malte stuecker:university of washington

After increasing slightly in recent decades, the sea ice extent around Antarctica plummeted in 2016. CREDIT Malte Stuecker/University of Washington

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HOWEVER, sound ‘science’ confirmed this was due, not to human-induced “climate change” but thanks to a ‘perfect storm’ of tropical, polar conditions’ :

“This was a really rare combination of events, something that we have never seen before in the observations,” Stuecker said.

SEE more : Record-low 2016 Antarctic sea ice was due to a ‘perfect storm’ of tropical, polar conditions – not ‘climate change’ | Watts Up With That?

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LATEST DECEMBER 2018 / JANUARY 2019 ANTARCTICA ANOMALY NSIDC

ANTARCTICA monthly sea-ice extent is very close to the 1981-2010 median:

ANTARCTICA daily sea-ice extent, close to the 1981-2010 median:

THESE charts at odds with NSIDC SH anomaly 1978-2018… (There has been some massive ice growth since I last checked the “blue marble” charts. Both are now back to the 1981-2010 median!?)

C/w …

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2018 ANTARCTIC, BACK-ON-TRACK

APRIL 2018 : BBC was reporting on a big increase in Antarctic snowfall with “The effect of the extra snow locked up in Antarctica is to slightly slow a general trend in global sea-level rise.”

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MAY 2018

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SOUTH POLE ON STILTS!

ANOTHER unique way of knowing that the Antarctic ice mass is growing significantly, year in, year out, is by the structural design of the Amundson-Scott South Pole Station:

Screen Shot 2019-01-14 at 8.24.05 pm.png

Amundson-Scott South Pole Station

THIS is the third station built at this site. The other two have been buried by snow! (see black dome of previous station now partially buried, top right of pic)

FOR the last several decades, Antarctica has been accumulating about 8 inches of snow every year and as temps never get above freezing, the snow never melts!

THE new building comprises 7 modular buildings that sit on stilts. Every year they jack up the buildings over the accumulating snow to prolong the life if the station:

Screen Shot 2019-01-14 at 8.28.05 pm.png

Stilts on each of the 7 modulars

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THE South Pole represents 90% of the earth’s ice, and it’s getting thicker. A problem for climate alarmists and their contradictory UN climate models.

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BUT, KEEP PANICKING!

ANY sign of ‘warming’ at the inconvenient South Pole sends the climate-theory-obsessed mainstream media into a collective meltdown.

A recent and ongoing example being the discovery of melt occurring along the Western Antarctic ice shelf caused by recently discovered undersea volcanoes, not by evil mankind’s gasses:

WEST-ANTARCTIC DOOMSDAY MEDIA …

  • West Antarctic ice sheet collapse ‘unstoppable’ [ABC]
  • Irreversible Changes Now Affect Antarctica and the World [Live-science]
  • ‘Nothing can stop retreat’ of West Antarctic glaciers [BBC, By Jonathan Amos]
  • West Antarctic ice collapse ‘could drown Middle East and Asia crops’ [The Guardian, Suzanne Goldenberg]
  • Antarctica’s ice collapse threatens metres of sea level rise within decades [The Ecologist]
  • Global warming: it’s a point of no return in West Antarctica. [The Guardian Eric Rignot]

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MORE on Antarctica :

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LATEST ANTARCTIC “MELT” SCARE STORY JUST IN (Worth a read) :

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EXTREME WEATHER

EXTREME WEATHER, the Climate Crisis Industries most revered weapon of mass hysteria has been scuttled, once again, by their very own authority, the UN IPCC! The latest report – SR15 – released in October 2018 by the UN’s holiest ‘science’ body finding, yet again, that there is “little basis or evidence” for claiming that heatwaves, drought, floods, hurricanes, cyclones, tornadoes have increased due to greenhouse gas emissions!

BUT, alas! Just as the “low confidence” extreme weather findings from the last SREX report (IPCC AR5 2013) were/are conveniently dismissed by the mainstream media and climate crusaders, so too will the latest ‘inconvenient’ findings from the SR15 ‘Special Report’.

WE know this to be true because the mainstream media and virtue-signalling politicians still manage to blame man-made ‘Climate Change’ for every weather climate event – exceptional or tepid.

IPCC AR5 / SREX (2013) :

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HEATWAVES

ACCORDING to the EPA, the low-CO2 1930s had (by far) the worst heatwaves in US history:

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AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL CYCLONES

AUSTRALIAN tropical cyclones are declining in both intensity and frequency as CO2 rises:

Read the rest of this entry »

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ARCTIC Ice Hockey Stick

MOTHER NATURE, once again, not complying with the prognostications and computer models of the Climate Crisis Industry!

Science Matters

Update July 18, 2018

Arctic day 198 hockey

No one knows how long this divergence of surplus ice will persist, but for now 2018 Arctic ice extent resembles a hockey stick.  Presently the ice is 525k km2 above 11 year average (2007 to 2017 inclusive) and  ~1M km2 greater than 2007.  More detailed report from July 14 below.

ims1952007to2018

In June 2018, Arctic ice extent held up against previous years despite the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk being ice-free.  The Arctic core is showing little change, perhaps due to increased thickness (volume) as reported by DMI.

The image above shows ice extents on day 195 (July 14) for years 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2018. Note this year ice is strong on both Russian and N. American sides.  Beaufort Sea and Canadian Archipelago are solid. E. Siberian and Chukchi Seas are also solid, despite early melting in Bering Sea.  Hudson and Baffin bays still have…

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OCEAN Air Temps Keep Cool

CURRENT ocean air temps the same as 1995 and declining. Definitely not what the climate models, nor ‘experts’ predicted! Ouch.

Science Matters

Presently sea surface temperatures (SST) are the best available indicator of heat content gained or lost from earth’s climate system.  Enthalpy is the thermodynamic term for total heat content in a system, and humidity differences in air parcels affect enthalpy.  Measuring water temperature directly avoids distorted impressions from air measurements.  In addition, ocean covers 71% of the planet surface and thus dominates surface temperature estimates.  Eventually we will likely have reliable means of recording water temperatures at depth.

Recently, Dr. Ole Humlum reported from his research that air temperatures lag 2-3 months behind changes in SST.  He also observed that changes in CO2 atmospheric concentrations lag behind SST by 11-12 months.  This latter point is addressed in a previous post Who to Blame for Rising CO2?

The June update to HadSST3 will appear later this month, but in the meantime we can look at lower troposphere temperatures (TLT) from UAHv6…

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MUST WATCH Weather Report : Forget The Cold! Global Warming Is Real!

ABC indoctrination - CLIMATISM


AUSTRALIA’S billion-dollar-a-year taxpayer funded public broadcaster, the ABC, is never shy pushing their CO2-centric global warming climate change agenda wherever and whenever possible.

THIS particular weather report that had to inconveniently divulge extreme cold temps that have kicked off Australia’s colder than average start to winter would make even infamous NAZI propagandist Joseph Goebbels blush!

Andrew Bolt with the rub…

Global warming has stalled, and the ABC’s weatherman must report “bitterly cold” weather in NSW and likely record low June temperatures for Broken Hill.

So he breaks off to sternly lecture any backsliders:

“Global warming doesn’t mean that cold temperatures won’t be recorded but rather that record heat temperatures will be far more common.”

Watch!

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“SCIENCE” UPDATE

ABC Weatherman Graham Creed @WeathermanABC again…

“Now on a quick side note, though, Global warming doesn’t mean that cold temperatures won’t be recorded, rather, record heat temperatures will be far more common and widespread.”

THIS statement is yet another ABC global warming climate change falsehood!

According to GCHN and ACORN-SAT data – the official data sets used by Bureau of Meteorologyannual maximum temps are ‘declining’ as CO2 increases…

However, according to GHCN and ACORN-SAT (‘adjusted’ data), the Australian temperature anomaly is, yes, increasing, but this is due to nighttime temps increasing faster than daytime temps are declining…

UHI caused by urban sprawl appears to be the most likely reason for nighttime temps up, IMO. (See link for Urban versus Rural temps station data… NO Australian Under The Age Of 40 Has Experienced Any Global Warming | Climatism)

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MEANWHILE, according to the much more comprehensive and accurate NASA satellite temps, unpolluted by land-based UHI (Urban Heat Island effect)…

NO Australian Under The Age Of 40 Has Experienced Any Global Warming

ACCORDING to NASA’s MSU satellite data, there has been no warming, at all, over the continent of Australia since the record began 40 years ago…

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The ABC will fight to the last to protect the warmist faith it has pushed and exaggerated and hyped and defended for years with a truly manic energy.

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Help us to hit back against the bombardment of climate lies costing our communities, economies and livelihoods far, far too much.

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NO Australian Under The Age Of 40 Has Experienced Any Global Warming

AUSTRALIA Temps Vs CO2.png


NASA’s MSU satellite measurement systems, generate the RSS and UAH datasets, which measure the average temperature of every cubic inch of the lower atmosphere (0-10 kms), which happens to be the exact place where anthropogenic global warming is meant to occur, according to anthropogenic global warming theory.

AUS MAY TEMPS -0.4C BELOW AVERAGE

UAH temperature anomaly for May was almost half a degree centigrade (-0.4C) below the 4o year average!

AUSTRALIA Lower Troposheric Temperature Anomaly 1978-2018 CLIMATISM

AUSTRALIA Lower Troposheric Temperature Anomaly 1978-2018

SATELLITES Vs LAND TEMPS

SATELLITES have the obvious benefit of measuring only the atmosphere and the effect that carbon dioxide emissions may be having on the atmosphere. Satellite data is not polluted by UHI (Urban Heat Island effect) – artificial heat generated from city infrastructure; asphalt carparks, airpots, highways, AC vents etc.

UHI (Urban Heat Island effect)

TONY Heller did a survey of the ten oldest stations in New South Wales And Victoria, circled below. Three rural stations were not included because of obvious problems with the data, but none showed any warming:

Screen Shot 2018-06-19 at 11.13.52 pm

UHI - Climatism - Sydney - Melbourne

The two urban stations at Melbourne and Sydney both showed strong warming, and both have disastrously poor siting of their thermometers in the middle of large cities.

Melbourne Temperature Anomaly CLIMATISM

Melbourne Temperature Anomaly

Sydney Temperature Anomaly CLIMATISM

Sydney Temperature Anomaly

By contrast, all of the rural stations show a long term cooling trend, with some recent warming. (Note that there is no data for the most recent years with some of the rural stations.)

Bathurst Temperature Anomaly CLIMATISM

Bathurst Temperature Anomaly

Read the rest of this entry »


GLOBAL WARMING THEORY CHECK : Global Temps Continue Century-Record Plunge, Despite Rising Emissions!

Global Warming Freeze CLIMATISM


ACCORDING to NASA data, the recent 0.56°C plunge in global temperatures, following the 2015/16 super El Niño, is the greatest two-year cooling event in a century. “You have to go back to 1982-84 for the next biggest two-year drop, 0.47°C—also during the global warming era.”

NASA’s MSU satellite measurement systems, generate the RSS and UAH datasets, which measure the average temperature of every cubic inch of the lower atmosphere (0-10 kms), the exact place where global warming theory is meant to occur.

MAY TEMPS +0.18C ABOVE AVERAGE

GLOBAL temps continue their cooling trend, rebounding off the 2015/16 Super El Niño – the strongest since accurate measurements began, caused by surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, west of Central America rising up to 3C warmer than usual.

GREENHOUSE GAS THEORY CHECK?

THE latest UAH V6.0 May anomaly of +0.18 brings temperatures back to the levels they were at the beginning of the Century, reinforcing the current 18+ year global warming “pause”, despite record and rising CO2 emissions…

UAH Global Temperature Update for May, 2018- +0.18 deg. C « Roy Spencer, PhD

UAH Global Temperature Update for May, 2018- +0.18 deg. C « Roy Spencer, PhD

Latest Global Average Tropospheric Temperatures

Since 1979, NOAA satellites have been carrying instruments which measure the natural microwave thermal emissions from oxygen in the atmosphere. The intensity of the signals these microwave radiometers measure at different microwave frequencies is directly proportional to the temperature of different, deep layers of the atmosphere. Every month, John Christy and I update global temperature datasets that represent the piecing together of the temperature data from a total of fifteen instruments flying on different satellites over the years. A discussion of the latest version (6.0) of the dataset is located here.

The graph above represents the latest update; updates are usually made within the first week of every month. Contrary to some reports, the satellite measurements are not calibrated in any way with the global surface-based thermometer records of temperature. They instead use their own on-board precision redundant platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) calibrated to a laboratory reference standard before launch.

Latest Global Temps « Roy Spencer, PhD

CO2 CONCENTRATION Vs TEMPS – Correlation?

CO2 Vs Temp Correlation 1979-2018 CLIMATISM

CO2 Vs Temp Correlation 1979-2018 CLIMATISM

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GLOBAL TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS – JUDGE FOR YOURSELF!

Satellites Vs Thermometers?

satellite-v-thermometer-628x353.png

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SATELLITES

NASA’s MSU satellite measurement systems, generate the RSS and UAH datasets, which measure the average temperature of every cubic inch of the lower atmosphere, the exact place where global warming theory is meant to occur. Read the rest of this entry »


TOP 10 Climate Change Alarmist Myths Unearthed : #2 SEA LEVEL RISE

TOP 10 CLIMATE CHANGE ALARMIST MYTHS UNEARTHED Sea Level Rise.png


“CLIMATE alarmism is a gigantic fraud: it only survives by suppressing dissent and by spending tens of billions of dollars of public money every year on pseudo-scientific propaganda.” – Leo Goldstein

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CLIMATISM TOP 10 ALARMIST MYTHS – Intro

EXCESSIVE or exaggerated alarm about a real or imagined threat is fundamental in driving the human CO2-induced global warming climate change narrative.

THE most popular climatic and weather-related events, as marketed by the Climate Crisis Industry, fall well within the bounds of natural variability. So, in order for such events to make the headlines, attract taxpayer funding for ‘research’, and advance the misanthropic, man-made climate change agenda, they must be accompanied by inflated language, an urgent tone, imagery of doom, and in many cases, fraudulent data.

IN this series we take an objective/sceptical look at ten of the more popular metrics used by warming alarmists to push the CAGW (catastrophic anthropogenic global warming) narrative, testing the veracity of the all-too-often wild and alarmist claims associated with each…

CLIMATE CHANGE Alarmist Myths Unearthed 3.png


#2. SEA LEVEL RISE

“THE Seas Are Rising”! You’ve read it, seen it and heard about it just about everywhere in conjunction with the climate change debate. However, the very statement “rising sea levels” is deceptive from the start.

SEA-levels both rise and fall depending on where you are on the planet. Absolute sea-level varies from negative to positive to stable depending on a range of regional factors including: local vertical land motion, land use, salinity, regional ocean circulations, ocean heat content and tidal variations…

NEGATIVE CHANGE

Mean Sea Level Trend
040-081 Narvik, Norway

Mean Sea Level Trend
050-141 Stockholm, Sweden

Mean Sea Level Trend
Juneau, Alaska

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POSITIVE CHANGE

Relative Sea Level Trend
The Battery, New York

Relative Sea Level Trend
Le Havre, France

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STABLE

REMEMBER the “sinking” Pacific Island nations…

THE climate-theory-obsessed mainstream media has gleefully pawned the emotional link between climate change and ‘sinking’ tropical islands to push their man-made global warming agenda…

“The tiny pacific island nation of Tuvalu looks set to become a victim of global warming, with the entire country predicted to be washed away in 50 years.” (BBC 2002)

TUVALU’s plight even formed part of the basis for arguably the most hysterical fake news claim in the history of climate alarmism: the UN’s prediction that by the end of 2010, climate change would have created50 million environmental refugees”!

CLIMATISM, along with the climate sceptic “denier” community have been citing actual scientific data and empirical observations that have consistently contradicted the hysterical claims made by the mainstream media of “drowning island nations” for years…

Relative Sea Level Trend
Funafati B, Tuvalu

Read the rest of this entry »