NAS, NAE, and NAM will be fast-tracking their google sponsored science censorship bureau to make sure that papers like this one never, ever see the light of day!
By Paul Homewood
h/t No Tricks Zone
An important new paper from Frank Lansner and Jens Pedersen:
Temperature data 1900–2010 from meteorological stations across the world have been analyzed and it has been found that all land areas generally have two different valid temperature trends. Coastal stations and hill stations facing ocean winds are normally more warm-trended than the valley stations that are sheltered from dominant oceans winds.
Thus, we found that in any area with variation in the topography, we can divide the stations into the more warm trended ocean air-affected stations, and the more cold-trended ocean air-sheltered stations. We find that the distinction between ocean air-affected and ocean air-sheltered stations can be used to identify the influence of the oceans on land surface. We can then use this knowledge as a tool to better study climate variability on the land surface without the moderating effects of the ocean.
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LATEST data of common climate metrics that are misreported or omitted by the mainstream media because the actual reported *data* simply doesn’t cooperate with their catastrophic global warming narrative…
THE Arctic still hasn’t melted away as climate zealots prophesied. The “disappearing” ice continues to grow with volume the highest in several years:
SEA LEVEL RISE alarmism is just one in a long line of propaganda metrics used by the climate crisis industry to promote the narrative that your CO2 emissions are causing unprecedented climate change.
OF course none of the carefully orchestrated fear-mongering is based on observed reality, rather, worst-case-scenario climate models that are designed to scare you and policy makers into belief.
THE veracity of global climate models were recently put under the microscope by a group of ‘warmist’ climate scientists who published a bombshell paper that admitted the estimates of global warming used for years to torture the world’s conscience and justify massive spending on non-carbon energy sources were, er, wrong.
IN February 2016, climate scientist Dr. John Christy presented testimony to U.S. Congress demonstrating that the UN IPCC’s CMIP5 climate models grossly exaggerate and over estimate the impact of atmospheric CO2 levels on global temperatures. Dr. Christy noted in his testimony that “models over-warm the tropical atmosphere by a factor of approximately three″.
Reality vs. Theory: Scientists Affirm ‘Recent Lack Of Any Detectable Acceleration’ In Sea Level Rise
AUSTRALIAN scientists have published a new paper in the journal Earth Systems and Environment that highlights the “loud divergence between sea level reality” and “the climate models [that] predict an accelerated sea-level rise driven by the anthropogenic CO2 emission“.
More via NoTricksZone :
THE key finding from the paper is that long-term observations from tide gauges reveal a “recent lack of any detectable acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise“. The modern rate of sea level rise acceleration – 0.002 mm/year² – is so negligible it falls well below the threshold of measurement accuracy.
The lack of a detectable global-scale sea level rise acceleration recorded in tide gauge measurements isn’t a novel finding. In recent years, dozens of other scientists have bravely come forward to challenge “consensus” modeling that implicates anthropogenic CO2 emissions as the preeminent cause of ice sheet melt and sea level rise.
Perhaps at some point “consensus”-based climate science will jettison its focus on models and projections of perilous future climate states directly caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions and instead embrace the observational evidence that may undermine the alarm.
Until then, we will likely need to continue learning about how many millimeters we humans raise sea levels for each kilometer we drive in our fossil-fuel-powered vehicles. Because that’s how “consensus” climate science works.
SERIOUS questions need to be asked as to how predictive models that do not observe reality can be used so un-objectively to torture the world’s conscience and justify massive spending on unreliable-energy sources, and fund a now vast industry of research grants, environment lobby firms and advisory businesses of all types.
OVERHEATED climate models also provide the basis for billions of dollars in trading climate credits, many thousands of well-paid government jobs in climate bureaucracies, and, of course, the trillion dollar green energy industry.
ALL this using *other-peoples’-hard-earned-money*.
MOST mainstream media outlets will not report something that dramatically deflates their narrative. So it goes without saying that when NASA confirmed that ocean levels have actually paused, even falling for the past few years, the media couldn’t be more than silent…
Via WUWT :
This is interesting. It appears that a “pause” has developed in global sea levels. For two years, since July 2015, there has been no sustained increase in global sea level, in fact, it appears to have actually fallen a bit. This graph, provided by NASA’s Global Climate Change website, tells the story:
A zoom of the area of interest, two years prior to the most recent data point.
The satellite derived sea level data is also available here: ftp://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/allData/merged_alt/L2/TP_J1_OSTM/global_mean_sea_level/GMSL_TPJAOS_V4_199209_201708.txt
NASA says on that website:
Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to global warming: the added water from melting ice sheets and glaciers and the expansion of sea water as it warms. The first graph tracks the change in sea level since 1993 as observed by satellites.
Hmmm, I think they left something out of that description.
The other source for sea level data, at the University of Colorado, also shows a pause, though they have not yet updated their data for 2017:
What I found most interesting on the UC sea level page was this graph, showing the correlation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global sea level. [Readers] may recall that in 2015, there was a massive spike of an El Niño event:
The correlation between ENSO and sea level seems strong.
Note this image from a NASA Visualization Video, which shows water piling up in the Western Pacific over the past 22 years. Wind pattern shifts are a signature of ENSO events, and they push water westward where it piles up.
Here is another projection of the same data, showing that water has been piling up in the Western Pacific:
I wonder what the rate of sea level rise would look like is we masked out El Nino events? I’m guessing it would be far, far, less than what is being claimed as “global”.
Sea-Level Rise Fraud Related :
- NASA “Sea Level Rise” Fraud | Climatism
- Miami’s Vice | Climatism
- Tangier Island | Climatism
- Falling Sea Level: The Critical Factor in 2016 Great Barrier Reef Bleaching! | Climatism
- BEAUTIFUL Example Of How Government Climate Agencies LIE To You About “Sea-Level Rise” | Climatism
Sea Level Rise Alarmism Related :
- 44th Pacific “Sinking Islands” Extortion Forum (COP21 Update 2015) | Climatism
- Climate Change Sea Level Rise Extortion | Climatism
- It wasn’t CO2: Global sea levels started rising before 1800 « JoNova
- NASA Sea Level Fraud | Real Science
Mainstream Media Sea Level Rise Alarmism :
- L.A. Times climate science denial article instead shows the Times clearly denying well established climate science | Climatism
- National Geographic’s Junk Science: How long will it take for sea level rise to reach midway up the Statue of Liberty? | Climatism
Sea Level Rise Related :
- Rate of global sea level rise decelerating this century
- No Sea Level Rise Along The Western Coast Of North America Since The Start Of Satellite Records
- Scientists Find That Sea Level Rise Is Much Slower Than Expected…No Human Fingerprint
- Global Sea Level Trend – 1.08 mm/year – NOAA records
- NEW PAPER : The global mean sea level started decelerated rising since 2004 with the rising rate 1.8 ± 0.9 mm/yr in 2012.
- NEW PAPER : Sea level rise slowed from 2004 – Deceleration, not acceleration as CO2 rises.
- NEW PAPER : New paper finds global sea levels rising at only 7 inches per century or 1.5mm/yr – THE HOCKEY SCHTICK
- Pacific Island Nations Are Growing Not Sinking
- The Maldives Are Not ‘Sinking’, They Are In Fact ‘Growing’
“The proposition of a rapidly rising sea level grew to a mantra in media and politics. This initiated a flood of papers rather based on models and statistics, however, than on actual field observations.”
(Study : Nils-Axel Mörner
Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm, Sweden)
THE post-mortem for most modern-day politicised climate “science”!
Fiji Map from Turtle Airways Seaplanes. Fiji International Airport is at Nadi.
Published this month is an update on sea levels at Fiji, and thankfully the threat level can be dialed way down. (H/T Tallbloke) The Research Article: Our Oceans-Our Future: New Evidence-based Sea Level Records from the Fiji Islands for the Last 500 years Indicating Rotational Eustasy and Absence of a Present Rise in Sea Level by Nils-Axel Mörner, Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm, Sweden. Excerpts with my bolds.
Previously, no study in the Fiji Islands had been devoted to the sea level changes of the last 500 years. No serious prediction can be made unless we have a good understanding of the sea level changes today and in the past centuries. Therefore, this study fills a gap, and provides real observational facts to assess the question of present sea level changes.
There is a total absence of data…
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CORALS evolved during the Cambrian era when atmospheric CO2 levels were at 6,000-7,000 ppm, around 4,000 percent or 20 times higher than today’s “CO2-starved” environment of 400 ppm, with atmospheric and ocean temps temps far higher than today.
CORALS have survived millions of years of dramatic and sudden climate change, yet climate alarmists want us to believe that a few hundred ppm more atmospheric CO2 is going to end us!?
CORAL bleaching is a naturally occurring phenomenon essential to the health and regrowth of coral reefs.
THE “Great Barrier Reef” is only “great” because it has died off at least 7 known times over the millennia.
CORAL reef fear-mongering is another man-made lie to push the man-made global warming aka climate change scam…
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t JoNova – the Australian ABC reports scientists from the Australian Institute of Marine Science are surprised how rapidly the Australian Great Barrier Reef is recovering from the 2016 bleaching event.
Great Barrier Reef starts to recover after severe coral bleaching, survey of sites between Cairns and Townsville shows
By David Chen
Updated Fri at 3:41pm
Scientists from the Australian Institute of Marine Science this month surveyed 14 coral reefs between Cairns and Townsville to see how they fared after being bleached.
The institute’s Neil Cantin said they were surprised to find the coral had already started to reproduce.
“We’re finding corals that are showing early signs of reproductive development, really visible eggs that we can see under the naked eye,” Dr Cantin said.
“[It’s] very surprising as previous studies have shown a two-to-three year delay in reproductive activity following bleaching events.
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INTERESTING to see how the warmist community will spin the “science” from these latest inconvenient findings that contradict IPCC climate model predictions and the endless “Hottest Year Evah“ PR claims.
NO doubt, Climate Crisis Inc … and the UN IPCC won’t go near it. And don’t expect to see empirical evidence of globally cooling oceans and thickening glaciers gleefully reported on CNN, BBC or ABC Australia. Any climate news that doesn’t fit the human-caused warming narrative is expressly ignored by the #FakeNews mainstream media, using their favoured and most effective propaganda weapon – confirmation bias.
MORE from Kenneth Richard via Pierre Gosselin’s excellent site NoTricksZone :
12 New Papers: North Atlantic, Pacific, And Southern Oceans Are Cooling As Glaciers Thicken, Gain Mass
Contrary to expectations, climate scientists continue to report that large regions of the Earth have not been warming in recent decades.
According to Dieng et al. (2017), for example, the global oceans underwent a slowdown, a pause, or even a slight cooling trend during 2003 to 2013. This undermines expectations from climate models which presume the increase in radiative forcing from human CO2 emissions should substantially increase ocean temperatures.
The authors indicate that the recent trends in ocean temperatures “may just reflect a 60-year natural cycle“, the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and not follow radiative forcing trends.
Dieng et al., 2017 We investigate the global mean and regional change of sea surface and land surface temperature over 2003–2013, using a large number of different data sets, and compare with changes observed over the past few decades (starting in 1950). … While confirming cooling of eastern tropical Pacific during the last decade as reported in several recent studies, our results show that the reduced rate of change of the 2003–2013 time span is a global phenomenon. GMST short-term trends since 1950 computed over successive 11-year windows with 1-year overlap show important decadal variability that highly correlates with 11-year trends of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index. The GMST 11-year trend distribution is well fitted by a Gaussian function, confirming an unforced origin related to internal climate variability.
We evaluate the time derivative of full-depth ocean heat content to determine the planetary energy imbalance with different approaches: in situ measurements, ocean reanalysis and global sea level budget. For 2003–2013, it amounts to 0.5 +/− 0.1 W m−2, 0.68 +/− 0.1 W m−2 and 0.65 +/− 0.1 W m−2, respectively for the three approaches. Although the uncertainty is quite large because of considerable errors in the climate sensitivity parameter, we find no evidence of decrease in net radiative forcing in the recent years, but rather an increase compared to the previous decades.
We can note that the correlation between GMST [global mean surface temperature] trends and AMO trends is quite high. It amounts 0.88 over the whole time span. At the beginning of the record, the correlation with PDO trends is also high (equal to 0.8) but breaks down after the mid-1980s. The GMST and AMO trends shown in Figure 6 show a low in the 1960s and high in the 1990s, suggestive of a 60-year oscillation, as reported for the global mean sea level by Chambers et al. (2012). Thus the observed temporal evolution of the GMST [global mean surface temperature] trends may just reflect a 60-year natural cycle driven by the AMO.
Subpolar North Atlantic Cooling Rapidly Since 2005
According to Piecuch et al. (2017) there has been no net warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the last quarter century. The warming that occurred in the 10 years from 1994-2004 has been completely negated by an even more pronounced cooling trend since 2005. The predominant (87%) cause of the warming was determined to be of the same natural (non-anthropogenic) origin as the subsequent cooling: advection, the movement/circulation of heat via internal processes. In fact, human CO2 emissions are never mentioned as even contributing to the the 1994-2004 warming.
Piecuch et al., 2017 The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is subject to strong decadal variability, with implications for surface climate and its predictability. In 2004–2005, SPNA decadal upper ocean and sea-surface temperature trends reversed from warming during 1994–2004 to cooling over 2005–2015. … Over the last two decades, the SPNA has undergone a pronounced climate shift. Decadal OHC and SST trends reversed sign around 2004–2005, with a strong warming seen during 1994–2004 and marked cooling observed over 2005–2015. These trend reversals were pronounced (> 0.1 °C yr−1 in magnitude) in the northeastern North Atlantic (south and west of Iceland) and in the Labrador Sea. … To identify basic processes controlling SPNA thermal variations, we diagnose the SPNA heat budget using ECCOv4. Changes in the heat content of an oceanic control volume can be caused by convergences and divergences of advective, diffusive, and surface heat fluxes within the control volume. [Advective heat convergence] explains 87% of the total [ocean heat content] variance, the former [warming] showing similar decadal behavior to the latter [cooling], increasing over 1994–2004, and decreasing over 2005–2015. … These results demonstrate that the recent SPNA decadal trend reversal was mostly owing to advective convergences by ocean circulation … decadal variability during 1993–2015 is in largest part related to advection by horizontal gyres.
Yeager and Robson (2017) also point out that, like it did from the 1960s to 1980s, the North Atlantic “has again been cooling”, a trend which they and others expect to continue. Sea surface temperatures are no warmer today than they were in the 1950s.
Yeager and Robson, 2017 [W]hile the late twentieth century Atlantic was dominated by NAO-driven THC [thermohaline circulation] variability, other mechanisms may dominate in other time periods. … More recently, the SPNA [sub polar North Atlantic] upper ocean has again been cooling, which is also thought to be related to a slowdown in the THC. A continued near-term cooling of the SPNA has been forecast by a number of prediction systems, with implications for pan-Atlantic climate.
The Southern Ocean Has Been Cooling Since The 1970s, Contrary To Models
Latif et al., 2017 The Southern Ocean featured some remarkable changes during the recent decades. For example, large parts of the Southern Ocean, despite rapidly rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, depicted a surface cooling since the 1970s, whereas most of the planet has warmed considerably. In contrast, climate models generally simulate Southern Ocean surface warming when driven with observed historical radiative forcing. The mechanisms behind the surface cooling and other prominent changes in the Southern Ocean sector climate during the recent decades, such as expanding sea ice extent, abyssal warming, and CO2 uptake, are still under debate. Observational coverage is sparse, and records are short but rapidly growing, making the Southern Ocean climate system one of the least explored. It is thus difficult to separate current trends from underlying decadal to centennial scale variability.
Turney et al., 2017 Occupying about 14% of the world’s surface, the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in ocean and atmosphere circulation, carbon cycling and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. … As a result of anomalies in the overlying wind, the surrounding waters are strongly influenced by variations in northward Ekman transport of cold fresh subantarctic surface water and anomalous fluxes of sensible and latent heat at the atmosphere–ocean interface. This has produced a cooling trend since 1979.
- Stunning Drop In Global Temperatures As El Niño Warming Ends | Climatism
- Understanding The “Hottest Year Evah” | Climatism
- Climate Models Don’t Work | Climatism
Great analysis by Paul Homewood explaining the “SUPER HOT” Arctic atmosphere, that has become the latest, hysterical climate (weather) event of the month pushed by climate alarmists.
By Paul Homewood
There has been increasing hysteria from global warming alarmists lately about polar sea ice trends.
So let’s start with the Arctic, where sea ice extent, despite some unusually, but certainly not unprecedented, mild weather in the last couple of months, has been tracking close to 2012.
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