COGNITIVE BIAS : Climate Change Alarmists Refuse To Accept ‘The Science’ That Proves Extreme Weather Events Are NOT IncreasingPosted: March 18, 2019
“WHEN the heart rules the head,
passion takes over reason.”
– Ortega y Gasset
“IT would not be impossible to prove with sufficient repetition and a psychological understanding of the people concerned that a square is in fact a circle. They are mere words, and words can be molded until they clothe ideas and disguise.”
― Joseph Goebbels
THE widely held belief that ‘Extreme Weather’ has become worse, as a result of man-made carbon dioxide emissions, is a tribute to the success of climate change propaganda pushed relentlessly by CO2-centric politicians and compliant mainstream media.
PROMOTING Extreme Weather is specifically designed to shift public opinion about the purported seriousness of human-induced
global warming climate change, through the use of emotional imagery and dire prognostications in order for draconian and costly climate policy to be accepted and implemented with as little resistance as possible from the taxpaying public.
COGNITIVE BIAS fuelled by an era of mass hysteria, delusion, groupthink and panic has helped foster dark and far-fetched clichés of a current “climate crisis”, that is an “existential threat” which will “end civilisation by 2030”.
THANKS to the dramatic rise in personal weather recording devices – smart phones and CCTV – the sampling rate (what you see or hear directly) of Extreme Weather events, broadcast via social and mainstream media, has risen dramatically in recent years.
BUT, have actual Extreme Weather events increased in frequency or intensity? In particular, over long-term ‘climate’ scales?
THE short answer is a big fat NO! Extreme Weather events have not increased in frequency or intensity as carbon dioxide emissions have increased. In many cases the exact opposite is occurring.
THIS ‘inconvenient’ fact has been proven by empirical data and confirmed by the last two (warmist) U.N. IPCC reports on Extreme Weather: SREX (AR5) 2013 report and the latest SR15 report released August, 2018:
- SORRY ALARMISTS : The IPCC Once Again Reports Extreme Weather Events Have Not Increased | Climatism (SR15 2018)
- No steel roof required: IPCC dials back the fear of extreme weather | Climatism (SREX AR5 2013)
EXTREME WEATHER METRICS
UN IPCC : “Low confidence in the sign of drought trends since 1950 at global scale…likely to be trends in some regions of the world, including increases in drought in the Mediterranean and W Africa & decreases in droughts in central N America & NW Australia” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
NO historical trend in U.S. drought as CO₂ rises :
1934 : WHEN CO₂ WAS AT ‘SAFE’ LEVELS
IN 1934, when CO₂ was at ‘safe’ levels, severe to extreme drought covered around 80% of the entire U.S. Such conditions endured for most of the decade known as the “Dust Bowl” era :
400 PPM ‘DANGEROUS’ CO₂
CURRENT U.S. drought conditions with CO₂ at ‘dangerous’ levels (400PPM) :
CALIFORNIA’s “PERMANENT DROUGHT” UPDATE
THANKS to superstitious climate kiddies wagging school, in just 3 years, California went from 97% in drought to just 1% :
WHEN CO₂ was at ‘safe’ levels, droughts in California lasted for 200 years :
“There is low confidence due to limited evidence, however, that anthropogenic climate change has affected the frequency and the magnitude of floods.” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
ACCORDING to the EPA, the low-CO2 1930s had (by far) the worst heatwaves in US history :
WHEN CO₂ was at ‘safe levels’, Adelaide’s temperature climbed above 100°F, six days in a row.
ADELAIDE – March, 1940 :
- Friday – 24°C (74.4F)
- Saturday – 24°C (75.7F)
- Sunday – 28°C (81.7F)
- Monday – 34°C (93.5F)
- Tuesday – 31°C (88.4F)
- Wednesday – 35°C (94.9F)
- Thursday – 40°C (103.9F)
- Friday – 42°C (107.7F)
- Saturday – 43°C (110.1F)
- Sunday – 42°C (108.3F)
- Monday – 42°C (107.9F)
- Tuesday – 40°C (103.6F)
GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONES
“Numerous studies towards and beyond AR5 have reported a decreasing trend
in the global number of tropical cyclones and/or the globally accumulated cyclonic energy”– UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
“There is only low confidence regarding changes in global tropical cyclone numbers under global warming over the last four decades.” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL CYCLONES
AUSTRALIAN tropical cyclones are declining in both intensity and frequency as CO₂ rises :
GLOBAL Hurricanes are declining in both frequency and intensity as CO₂ increases :
CAT 3+ U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes (per decade) declining rapidly as CO₂ emissions rise :
FLORIDA Major Hurricane Strikes – Still No Trend :
2018 was one of the least active US tornado years on record, despite record and rising CO₂ emissions.
AS of October, a new record low tornado count was set. The cumulative total for 2018 is 759; the previous lowest number of tornadoes for this date was 761. The SPC has records extending back 65 years.
This lack of tornadic storms in recent years should also correlate with lesser severe thunderstorm activity in general in the U.S., since the conditions which produce large hail and damaging winds are generally the same as are required for tornadoes (strong instability, plentiful moisture, and wind shear). – Roy Spencer PhD
THE frequency of strong to violent tornadoes is also decreasing :
THE trend is clearly down across the board. Yet why are no mainstream journalists curious about this?
NB// IPCC SR15 “Extreme Weather” report made no mention of Tornadoes. Nor, the mainstream media!
GLOBAL WEATHER DISASTERS / LOSSES
GLOBAL weather disasters/losses as a percentage of global GDP are declining as CO₂ emissions rise.
THROUGH 7 months of 2018 weather disasters as % GDP were on record (low) pace…
NB// LOSS data does not include the two big CAT4’s that struck the US in 2018 – Florence (Sep) and Michael (Oct).
BIAS BY OMISSION
IN my opinion, the worst form of propaganda is ‘bias by omission’ – information and facts that you are ‘not’ told about, in order to keep the truth from you.
THE mainstream media has not and will not report the facts on “Extreme Weather”, as clearly laid out in the science and data above, because such facts are obviously extremely ‘inconvenient’ to their “catastrophic” man-made global warming narrative.
VITAL information central to the potential seriousness of climate change – Extreme Weather – has been purposely omitted by the mainstream media and replaced by emotions, alarmism and exaggerations in order to fit the climate-calamity narrative designed to scare you into belief and obedience.
THIS is why the
global warming climate change debate has become so dangerously deceptive and dishonest. Climate truths hidden from you and replaced with a narrative far more acceptable – Hollywood-style climate hysteria based on alarmism, increased sampling rates and overheated, CO2-centric climate models that do not accord with observed reality.
DID not see either of these instructive graphs painted on a placards at any of the kiddie climate rallies last Friday. Guess they don’t fit their ‘catastrophic’ climate narrative…
PERHAPS the climate kids would have been wise to read and learn the words of H.L. Mencken, before being forced out by their parents and teachers to act as standard bearers of new radical eco-socialism, protected by ‘innocence’ and lack of age :
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule it.” – H.L. Mencken
“IN a brilliant strategic move, it was decided that
the environmentalist movement was a new and
promising vehicle for obtaining political influence and power.”
– Jennifer Marohasy PhD
AUSTRALIAN ‘conservative’ environment Minister Melissa Price is in “No Doubt” that Victoria’s recent bush fires were caused by mankind’s 1 extra carbon dioxide molecule in every 10,000, or an increase of one thousandth of one percent of CO2 over a 150 year period.
AUSTRALIA’S contribution to global plant food and fire-retardant CO2 = 1.3% of all that!
Environment Minister Melissa Price has linked this week’s devastating bushfires in Victoria to climate change, saying there is “no doubt” of its impact on Australia
As Victorians in the state’s east survey the damage done to their properties by bushfires, the Environment Minister said Australians across the nation had suffered from the nation’s hottest summer on record.
“There’s no doubt that there’s many people who have suffered over this summer. We talk about the Victorian bushfires; (in) my home state of Western Australia we’ve also got fires there,” she told Sky News this morning.
“There’s no doubt that climate change is having an impact on us. There’s no denying that.”
Coalition figures, including former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, have been reluctant in the past to link climate change to recent natural disasters such as bushfires.
MEANWHILE, residents of Tonimbuk, a small rural community heaviest hit by Victoria’s weekend bushfires, believe dangerously high fuel loads on vacant crown land contributed to the ferocity of a blaze that left Country Fire Authority firefighters unable to defend some properties…
Residents of a small rural community heaviest hit by Victoria’s weekend bushfires believe dangerously high fuel loads on vacant crown land contributed to the ferocity of a blaze that left Country Fire Authority firefighters unable to defend some properties.
The quiet hamlet of Tonimbuk, about 90km east of Melbourne, felt the brunt of the fire crisis, with seven properties destroyed and 11,000ha burnt by a lightning-strike blaze that raced out of the Bunyip State Forest.
Andrew Clarke, the owner of the Jinks Creek Winery destroyed by the Bunyip fire, believes a bureaucratic blunder cost him his life’s work.
He said a planned burn-off in 60ha between his vineyard and the state park was not done because of concerns for local birdlife.
“If they’d been doing the burning off they should have been doing, our place might still be there,’’ he told The Australian.
“They told me birds were nesting. I told them: ‘If we don’t do a burn-off now, there’ll be no birds. There’ll be no goannas, no snakes, no wallabies. They’ll all be barbecued.’’
Another Tonimbuk resident, cartoonist Mark Knight, said some residents were left to defend their homes without assistance from the CFA. “We fought this fire for three days on our own,’’ he said. “Black Saturday they were all over us. They were fantastic. We didn’t see them this year.’’
THE Daily Telegraph’s climate ‘rationalist’ Miranda Devine with the brutal truth as to what is really fuelling 21st Century bushfires, overrun with ‘Green’ fodder…
Melissa Price, the new federal Environment Minister, has done untold political damage to a government already divided over climate action by spouting idiotic green propaganda about Victoria’s bushfires.
On Tuesday, she linked the fires to climate change, claiming there is “no doubt” of its impact on Australia.
“There’s no doubt that there’s many people who have suffered over this summer. We talk about the Victorian bushfires … There’s no doubt that climate change is having an impact on us. There’s no denying that.”
Sorry, minister, it wasn’t climate change that caused the latest bushfires which have so far destroyed nine homes in Victoria, and it wasn’t climate change that killed almost 200 people in the Black Saturday fires ten years ago.
The real culprit is green ideology which opposes the necessary hazard reduction of fuel loads in national parks and which prevents landholders from clearing vegetation around their homes.
The ongoing poor management of national parks and state forests in Victoria and green obstruction of fire mitigation strategies has led to dangerously high fuel loads over the past decade.
That means that when fires do inevitably break out they are so intense that they are devilishly difficult for firefighters to contain. As a federal parliamentary inquiry heard in 2003, if you quadruple the ground fuel, you get a 13-fold increase in the heat generated by a fire.
Locals know the truth. Andrew Clarke, owner of Jinks Creek Winery, which has been destroyed by a fire which raged out of the Bunyip State Forest, “begged” for fuel reduction burns to protect his property.
“I’ve been begging them [Forest Fire Management Victoria] for 20 years to burn off the state forest at the back of our place and still to this day it hasn’t happened,” he told the ABC’s Country Hour.
Clarke said a planned burn-off was called off because of concerns about nesting birds.
So how did that work out for the birds?
Just three weeks ago, Victoria’s former chief fire officer Ewan Waller warned that state forest fuel loads were reaching deadly, Black Saturday levels. No one paid any attention.
But you can bet Premier Daniel Andrews will hide behind the climate change furphy.
Parroting green lies suits politicians because then they can avoid blame for their own culpability.
The Black Saturday Bushfire Royal Commission criticised the Victorian government for its failure to reduce fuel loads in state forests. It recommended more than doubling the amount of hazard reduction burns.
Instead, in the last three years, alone, the Andrews government has slashed the amount of public land being hazard reduced by almost two thirds.
It’s a crime.
The wonder is that the Morrison government is helping him with his alibi.
VICTORIAN BUSHFIRES : A HISTORY LESSON FOR CLIMATE CHANGE CO2-CENTRICS
BUSHFIRES and “extreme” heat-waves have been part and parcel of Victoria and Australia’s DNA for millennia, even when CO2 was at ‘safe’ levels …
DECEMBER 1954 (CO2 @ 313 PPM) :
JANUARY 1946 (CO2 @ 310 PPM) :
“EXTREME HEAT buckled rail-lines” …
“ST. KILDA sands baked” …
VICTORIAN BUSHFIRES.St. Kilda Sands Baked.MELBOURNE, Jan 13. – Nearly 40 bushfires were reported throughout Victoria today when the temperature in Melbourne rose to 105deg [41°C].*So hot was the sand at West St. Kilda yesterday that life-savers, in a march past, broke formation for the first time in the history of Victorian life-saving clubs and had to resume the march along the water’s edge.
FEBRUARY 1944 (CO2 @ 310 PPM) :
MARCH 1940 (CO2 @ 311 PPM) :
APRIL 1940 (CO2 @ 311 PPM) :
APRIL 1936 (CO2 @ 310 PPM) :
MARCH 1933 (CO2 @ 308.9 PPM) :
FEBRUARY 1932 (CO2 @ 308.3 PPM) :
FEBRUARY 1931 (CO2 @ 308.3 PPM) :
FEBRUARY 1926 (CO2 @ 305.8 PPM) :
FEBRUARY 1898 (CO2 @ 295 PPM) :
AUSTRALIAN politicians push a never-ending barrage of fact-free
global warming climate change alarmism, fear and propaganda on the taxpayer in order to stoke fear and justify the spending of billions upon billions of their hard-earned money on fake fixes to a fake scam.
HOW many more billions of taxpayers hard-earned money will be spent on the greatest pseudoscientific scam ever perpetrated against mankind before our politicians learn how to google “TROVE“? Basic climate history, documenting events no different to today that completely trashes their costly, fake, political, man-made climate change scam costing the country and the planet an estimated $2,000,000,000,000 US (2 Trillion) per year, every year!
POLITICIAN’S punishing industry and jobs with punitive and draconian climate policy, including billions spent on useless windmills and solar panels with ZERO criticism or investigation of years of reckless ‘Green’ environmental policy mandated by UN-infected local councils who, under the draconian program of Agenda 21 aka ICLEI, prevent the clearing of any foliage, trees or grasses above 8 inches on residents own private properties!
ENOUGH is enough. People’s livelihoods, their communities and economies are being ‘burned’ alive by gutless and superstitious politicians on a costly and dangerous crusade of “Save The Planet” hubris driven by politics, ideology and groupthink, pseudoscientific climate change dogma.
- ‘UNPRECEDENTED’ EXTREMES : Heat Waves And Summer Snow Down Under | Climatism
- RECORD MARCH HEAT WAVE : Six Consecutive Days Above 100°F | Climatism
- Shock news 1923 : Meteorological Office Exists as a Corrective to Scare Mongering | Climatism
- BLACK THURSDAY 168 Years Ago : Bushfires Burn 5 Million Hectares or A Quarter Of Victoria | Climatism
- DRACONIAN UN CLIMATE AGENDA EXPOSED : ‘Global Warming Fears Are A Tool For Political and Economic Change…It Has Nothing To Do With The Actual Climate’ | Climatism
- AGENDA 21 IN AUSTRALIA – Human Free Habitat Zones – Green Dreaming of a Human-Free Environment — Quadrant Online
- TOMORROW’S Grim, Global, Green Dictatorship | Climatism
“No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world.”
– Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment
“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.“
– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation
IN the era of
Global Warming Climate Change hysteria, every and any “extreme weather” or climatic event is instantly blamed on humans and their wicked ways.
RUSHING to ideological and schizophrenic judgement is at best lazy. At worst, such deliberate grandstanding prevents salient solutions to real environmental problems and climate mitigation challenges we face everyday as a society.
THIS fashionable and dangerous eco-paradigm no more obvious than in the tragic California fires, still smouldering.
MENTION “land management” as a solution to prevent future wildfire catastrophes, and the climate mafia will viciously deride one a “denier”, “flat-earther”, “right wing nut job”, “shill of the oil industry” or maybe a “racist” if you’re still hanging around.
ANY name will do, as long as the pejorative is sufficient enough to prevent the conversation shifting away from “CLIMATE CHANGE!”.
MEDIA HYSTERIA Inc …
SO, while California burned and the Climate Ambulance Chasers blamed, more measured minds were assessing causes of the fires with data and reasoning instead of defaulting to emotions, politics and groupthink ideology.
Paul Homewood is one who thinks rather than blames. His research helping to quell the superstition and paranoia endlessly levelled by global warming zealots whenever catastrophe strikes.
HOMEWOOD’s latest post begins with a typical Paul Driessen fact-packed and, as usual, beautifully written masterpiece “Blaming climate – ignoring incompetence – CFACT“.
(Highly recommend Driessen’s work wherever you come across it!)
HOMEWOOD then nuts out the data surrounding the Cali fires, dispelling alarmist claims of CO2-induced “extreme weather” as the root cause …
CFACT are of course dead right. There is really very little point in blaming weather/climate when you can do nothing about it anyway. It is government’s job to tackle the problems they can do something about.
But as for claims about climate change, is there actually anything to them?
Let’s take a look at temperatures for a start.
Orland, CA is near to the Paradise fire and has good, long term meteorological data. Using data from the Western Regional Climate Center, we can plot summertime daily maximums back to 1903:
As we can see, the hottest summers were in 1908 and 1917. Summers now are much cooler than the period prior to 1940.
We find the same pattern with the highest daily temperatures measured each year:
Record temperatures of 120F were set in 1905 and 1908 at Orland. The highest this year was just 107F:
Indeed there has been very little out of the ordinary at all with temperatures this summer:
Of course it has also been dry this year, but again nothing unusual as far as that part of California is concerned. ( Div 2 is the Sacramento Drainage Division):
And as we know, the 20thC was an unusually wet interlude, as far as California’s longer history is concerned:
Anybody who uses tries to blame California’s wildfires on “extreme weather” is not only flying in the face of the facts, but also failing to deal with the real causes.
IN terms of area burned, US wildfires were a lot worse earlier in the 20th Century when CO2 was at “safe levels”:
PARADISE California Hasn’t Been Experiencing A Drought
NEWS FLASH! Climate change and drought would thin out forests. Jerry Brown admits that the forests are overly dense. How do you get overly dense forests in a drought? Climate change didn’t cause all the tightly packed homes to be built in the forests.
“THE DUST BOWL ERA”
US drought was far worse in the 1930’s, during the “dust bowl” era, when CO2 was at “safe levels”:
LET’s study the data and the facts before we yell “GLOBAL WARMING” at every pass. We will achieve a lot more for a fraction of the political, social and environmental cost!
“News Flash, climate change and drought would THIN OUT FORESTS. Jerry Brown admits that the forests are overly dense. How do you get overly dense forests in a drought? Climate change didn’t cause all the tightly packed homes to be built in the forests.”
WAY too much common sense and logic for the climate ambulance chaser brigade!
Paradise California gets plenty of rain, and has moderate temperatures.
Paradise weather averages
Annual high temperature: 70.9°F
Annual low temperature: 51.2°F
Average temperature: 61.05°F
Average annual precipitation – rainfall: 58.11 inch
Av. annual snowfall: 1 inch
Jerry Brown: ‘In Less Than 5 Years’ Even the Worst Climate Change Skeptics ‘Are Going to Be Believers’ (Source)
News Flash, climate change and drought would THIN OUT FORESTS. Jerry Brown admits that the forests are overly dense. How do you get overly dense forests in a drought? Climate change didn’t cause all the tightly packed homes to be built in the forests.
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‘GREEN’ environmental policies – killing the earth (and people) to ‘save’ it:
“LAWS like the National Environmental Policy Act and the Endangered Species Act, according to Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Calif., “have resulted in endlessly time-consuming and cost-prohibitive restrictions and requirements that have made the scientific management of our forests virtually impossible.”
These laws, and others like them, have drastically reduced the amount of forest thinning and controlled burns that used to effectively keep wildland from becoming a danger to people and property.
“One problem for landowners is disposing of deadwood. Dozens of biomass facilities that burn tree parts that can’t be used for lumber have closed due to emissions regulations and competition from subsidized renewables and cheap natural gas,” wrote The Wall Street Journal.
According to the USDA Forest Service, there are an estimated 129 million dead trees over a territory of 8.9 million acres across California—a fact that even liberal Vox brought attention to as a major concern. And this doesn’t even account for the shrubs and brush that have been the primary contributors to the most recent fires.”
The town of Paradise, California, has been decimated by fire. (Photo: Paul Kitagaki Jr./Zuma Press/Newscom)
By Jarrett Stepman ~
Another year, another set of deadly fires burning up California.
The devastation is heartbreaking. The “Camp Fire” has almost completely obliterated the Northern California town of Paradise. It’s now officially the deadliest fire in California history. Over 40 people have died.
This horrific blaze, along with the Woolsey and Hill fires in Southern California, have inflicted untold property damage, laid waste to towns and huge swaths of wildland, and taken dozens of lives. These wildfires are becoming an annual occurrence in the Golden State.
Are these calamities just the “new normal,” as California Gov. Jerry Brown recently said?
They don’t have to be.
President Donald Trump took to Twitter to blast poor land management as a cause of the continual fires.
Some have argued that the kind of land management…
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Not only do wind turbines act as the perfect bushfire-starters, their presence precludes the best and safest method of fire-fighting from controlling them: aerial water bombers won’t fly within cooee of these things – experienced pilots have declared that they won’t fly within 3km of a wind turbine, even without the country around them on fire. For a rundown on pilots’ attitudes to flying anywhere near wind farms – see our posts here and here and here.
Starting on Saint Patrick’s Day, 17 March, Western Victoria was set ablaze, with thousands of acres of farming and grazing country razed, sheds and homes destroyed and savage livestock losses.
Here’s an account given by residents who witnessed what happened at AGL’s Macarthur wind farm.
AND STILL THE TURBINES KEPT TURNING!
Saturday 17th March 2018 had been declared a Total Fire Ban day for south-west Victoria, two days ahead, such were…
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EARLIER today I reported on Sydney’s Autumn 38 degree Sun-day, noting that “the usual climate ambulance chasers will be sharpening the lead and filling ink wells to inscribe “
climate change” “global warming” on their “extreme weather” report cards, feeling morally-bound to fashionably link mankind’s activities to the follies of nature.”
IT didn’t take long for Australian Greens’ leader, Senator Richard Di Natale to blame the current bout of extreme, yet, not-out-of-the-ordinary natural disasters, on ‘climate change’.