COGNITIVE BIAS : Climate Change Alarmists Refuse To Accept ‘The Science’ That Proves Extreme Weather Events Are NOT IncreasingPosted: March 18, 2019
“WHEN the heart rules the head,
passion takes over reason.”
– Ortega y Gasset
“IT would not be impossible to prove with sufficient repetition and a psychological understanding of the people concerned that a square is in fact a circle. They are mere words, and words can be molded until they clothe ideas and disguise.”
― Joseph Goebbels
THE widely held belief that ‘Extreme Weather’ has become worse, as a result of man-made carbon dioxide emissions, is a tribute to the success of climate change propaganda pushed relentlessly by CO2-centric politicians and compliant mainstream media.
PROMOTING Extreme Weather is specifically designed to shift public opinion about the purported seriousness of human-induced
global warming climate change, through the use of emotional imagery and dire prognostications in order for draconian and costly climate policy to be accepted and implemented with as little resistance as possible from the taxpaying populous.
COGNITIVE BIAS fuelled by an era of mass hysteria, delusion, groupthink and panic has helped foster dark and far-fetched clichés of a current “climate crisis”, that is an “existential threat” which will “end civilisation by 2030”.
THANKS to the dramatic rise in personal weather recording devices – smart phones and CCTV – the sampling rate (what you see or hear directly) of Extreme Weather events, broadcast via social and mainstream media, has risen dramatically in recent years.
BUT, have actual Extreme Weather events increased in frequency or intensity? In particular, over long-term ‘climate’ scales?
THE short answer is a big fat NO! Extreme Weather events have not increased in frequency or intensity as carbon dioxide emissions have increased. In many cases the exact opposite is occurring.
THIS ‘inconvenient’ fact has been proven by empirical data and confirmed by the last two (warmist) U.N. IPCC reports on Extreme Weather: SREX (AR5) 2013 report and the latest SR15 report released August, 2018:
- SORRY ALARMISTS : The IPCC Once Again Reports Extreme Weather Events Have Not Increased | Climatism (SR15 2018)
- No steel roof required: IPCC dials back the fear of extreme weather | Climatism (SREX AR5 2013)
EXTREME WEATHER METRICS
UN IPCC : “Low confidence in the sign of drought trends since 1950 at global scale…likely to be trends in some regions of the world, including increases in drought in the Mediterranean and W Africa & decreases in droughts in central N America & NW Australia” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
NO historical trend in U.S. drought as CO₂ rises :
1934 : WHEN CO₂ WAS AT ‘SAFE’ LEVELS
IN 1934, when CO₂ was at ‘safe’ levels, severe to extreme drought covered around 80% of the entire U.S. Such conditions endured for most of the decade known as the “Dust Bowl” era :
400 PPM ‘DANGEROUS’ CO₂
CURRENT U.S. drought conditions with CO₂ at ‘dangerous’ levels (400PPM) :
CALIFORNIA’s “PERMANENT DROUGHT” UPDATE
THANKS to superstitious climate kiddies wagging school, in just 3 years, California went from 97% in drought to just 1% :
WHEN CO₂ was at ‘safe’ levels, droughts in California lasted for 200 years :
“There is low confidence due to limited evidence, however, that anthropogenic climate change has affected the frequency and the magnitude of floods.” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
ACCORDING to the EPA, the low-CO2 1930s had (by far) the worst heatwaves in US history :
WHEN CO₂ was at ‘safe levels’, Adelaide’s temperature climbed above 100°F, six days in a row.
ADELAIDE – March, 1940 :
- Friday – 24°C (74.4F)
- Saturday – 24°C (75.7F)
- Sunday – 28°C (81.7F)
- Monday – 34°C (93.5F)
- Tuesday – 31°C (88.4F)
- Wednesday – 35°C (94.9F)
- Thursday – 40°C (103.9F)
- Friday – 42°C (107.7F)
- Saturday – 43°C (110.1F)
- Sunday – 42°C (108.3F)
- Monday – 42°C (107.9F)
- Tuesday – 40°C (103.6F)
GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONES
“Numerous studies towards and beyond AR5 have reported a decreasing trend
in the global number of tropical cyclones and/or the globally accumulated cyclonic energy”– UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
“There is only low confidence regarding changes in global tropical cyclone numbers under global warming over the last four decades.” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL CYCLONES
AUSTRALIAN tropical cyclones are declining in both intensity and frequency as CO₂ rises :
GLOBAL Hurricanes are declining in both frequency and intensity as CO₂ increases :
CAT 3+ U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes (per decade) declining rapidly as CO₂ emissions rise :
FLORIDA Major Hurricane Strikes – Still No Trend :
2018 was one of the least active US tornado years on record, despite record and rising CO₂ emissions.
AS of October, a new record low tornado count was set. The cumulative total for 2018 is 759; the previous lowest number of tornadoes for this date was 761. The SPC has records extending back 65 years.
This lack of tornadic storms in recent years should also correlate with lesser severe thunderstorm activity in general in the U.S., since the conditions which produce large hail and damaging winds are generally the same as are required for tornadoes (strong instability, plentiful moisture, and wind shear). – Roy Spencer PhD
THE frequency of strong to violent tornadoes is also decreasing :
THE trend is clearly down across the board. Yet why are no mainstream journalists curious about this?
NB// IPCC SR15 “Extreme Weather” report made no mention of Tornadoes. Nor, the mainstream media!
GLOBAL WEATHER DISASTERS / LOSSES
GLOBAL weather disasters/losses as a percentage of global GDP are declining as CO₂ emissions rise.
THROUGH 7 months of 2018 weather disasters as % GDP were on record (low) pace…
NB// LOSS data does not include the two big CAT4’s that struck the US in 2018 – Florence (Sep) and Michael (Oct).
BIAS BY OMISSION
IN my opinion, the worst form of propaganda is ‘bias by omission’ – information and facts that you are ‘not’ told about, in order to keep the truth from you.
THE mainstream media has not and will not report the facts on “Extreme Weather”, as clearly laid out in the science and data above, because such facts are obviously extremely ‘inconvenient’ to their “catastrophic” man-made global warming narrative.
VITAL information central to the potential seriousness of climate change – Extreme Weather – has been purposely omitted by the mainstream media and replaced by emotions, alarmism and exaggerations in order to fit the climate-calamity narrative designed to scare you into belief and obedience.
THIS is why the
global warming climate change debate has become so dangerously deceptive and dishonest. Climate truths hidden from you and replaced with a narrative far more acceptable – Hollywood-style climate hysteria based on alarmism, increased sampling rates and overheated, CO2-centric climate models that do not accord with observed reality.
DID not see either of these instructive graphs painted on a placards at any of the kiddie climate rallies last Friday. Guess they don’t fit their ‘catastrophic’ climate narrative…
PERHAPS the climate kids would have been wise to read and learn the words of H.L. Mencken, before being forced out by their parents and teachers to act as standard bearers of new radical eco-socialism, protected by ‘innocence’ and lack of age :
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule it.” – H.L. Mencken
“FAR from this year being the record, the hottest summer was actually back in 1900. This summer only ranks 5th, behind 2017, 1902 and 2006.
THE summers of 1884 and 1901 are also close behind.
IN fact, the spate of hot summers recently look little different to those of the early 1900s.”
EXCELLENT investigative work, again, by Mr. Paul Homewood.
THE precise job that the mainstream media should and must be doing in order to keep a check on government and its institutions.
BUT, just as our top ‘scientific’ organisations have been captured by environmental elites, so too have the majority-Leftist mainstream media.
AND, for the mainstream media – keeping “truth to power” in the area of the ‘environment’ would mean sanitising their man-made global warming narrative that they’ve invested so much political capital, ideology and personal ego into for decades. Not gonna happen!
ERGO, tough times indeed for “truth to power” to exist in the fashionable age of climate change virtue-signalling, driven by politics, propaganda, bureaucratic pseudoscience and trillions of dollars of taxpayers hard-earned.
By Paul Homewood
This made news a couple of weeks ago, but I have been waiting for full details from the BOM:
Australia has experienced its hottest summer on record, according to the nation’s Bureau of Meteorology.
Hundreds of individual heat records were shattered across the country over the past three months.
The warm weather, 2.14C above the long-term average, caused bushfires, blackouts and a rise in hospital admissions.
Wildlife also suffered, with reports of mass deaths of wild horses, native bats and fish.
“The real standout was just how widespread and prolonged each heatwave was – almost everywhere was affected,” climatologist Blair Trewin told the BBC.
Temperatures had exceeded the previous hottest summer in 2012-13 by nearly 1C, he added – “a very large margin for a national record”.
Naturally the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has blamed it on climate change. But is it quite as simple as…
View original post 460 more words
“As we all know, this isn’t about truth at all,
it’s about plausibly deniable accusations.”
– Michael Mann (Climategate Emails)
“Those who can make you believe absurdities,
can make you commit atrocities.”
“Blind trust in authority
is the greatest enemy of the truth.”
– Albert Einstein
THE $2,000,000,000,000 US per year (2 Trillion) Climate Crisis Industry is not unlike the Washington “swamp”. When its orthodoxy and authority is threatened, questioned or challenged, major stakeholders launch a swift and coordinated defence to maintain the status quo.
ANY real-world evidence that contradicts the anthropogenic global warming theory (AGW) is viciously refuted with eye-popping examples of reverse logic and shameless shifting of goal-posts. However implausible, a clear and consistent message will follow nonetheless, carefully coordinated and synced between ‘scientific’ bodies and compliant mainstream media to add plausibility, authenticity and believability.
A priceless example was one by The Guardian’s resident climate catastrophist, George Monbiot, who claimed that the widespread and prolonged snowfalls of the 2017/18 Northern Hemisphere winter were caused by, yep, ‘global warming’!
HISTORIC DEEP FREEZE SWEEPS MIDWEST
FAST forward only 10 months and the climate cult has been in crisis management mode dealing with the current Polar Vortex that has ravaged the US and Europe with historic low temperatures.
WITH the mercury in Milwaukee plunging as low as -65°F (wind chill) and Indianapolis -40°F, comparisons have been made to temperatures as cold as Mt Everest, Siberia and Mars!
CHICAGO hit -25°F (actual) which was -2°F shy of the all time record cold set in 1985. Temperatures fell early Wednesday to -19°F making it the coldest Jan. 30 in Chicago on record. It beat the last record daily low of -15°F set on Jan. 30, 1966, according to the National Weather Service.
THE New York Times dubbed this years Arctic blast the “coldest weather in a generation”:
By Mitch Smith
CHICAGO — Two of the most dreaded words in a Midwestern weather forecast — “polar vortex” — returned this week, promising life-threatening low temperatures that could shatter records and plunge much of the region into its deepest freeze in decades.
“The vortex, a brutal mass of cold air within strong bands of circulating winds, has spread southward from its normal location near the North Pole in recent weeks, bringing arctic weather to the middle of the United States. Such weather events have become more common in recent years; scientists are not sure why, but some suspect a link to climate change.”
NOTE the Times’ urgency to blame “climate change”, even as “scientists are not sure why”.
TRUMP TROLLS THE WARMISTS
NO politician or President has ever been able to unnerve the mainstream media and expose their true colours and extreme Leftist/Socialist ideologies like Trump. Like or loath him, he dares to question orthodoxy and the preferred wisdom of the day, disrupting the status quo.
HIS tweet on the extreme cold weather sent the global warming theory-obsessed mainstream media into a literal meltdown:
BREITBART’S John Nolte with the apoplectic reaction from the press:
Naturally, this launched a million reactionary headlines from our oh-so objective, unbiased, not-at-all left-wing media.
“Look at This Embarrassing F*cking Moron,” screamed Esquire.
“Debunking the utter idiocy of Donald Trump’s global warming tweet,” pouted CNN.
“Here’s Why the Crazy Cold Temperatures Prove Global Warming is Real,” Forbes says reassuringly.
“What Trump keeps getting wrong about Global Warming,” the Washington Post helpfully reports.
But here is my personal favorite headline from, where else?, NBC News…. “Yes, it can be this cold outside in a time of global warming.”
GOVERNMENT institutions quick to defend their sacred (cash) cow, too :
TONY HELLER (Steve Goddard) quick to correct the warmist NOAA’s flawed, reactionary argument:
CO2 CAUSES BOTH ‘EXTREME’ HOT & COLD!
NEW YORK Times Climate – making sure you believe that both extreme cold and extreme heat are a direct byproduct of your gasses and excesses.
NOTE the goal-posts being shifted to accomodate any weather event :
MY reply :
REGARDING “Extremes” :
I noted in a past Climatism post detailing the latest IPCC report on “Extreme Weather” that the mainstream media would wilfully dismiss its ‘inconvenient’ findings:
EXTREME WEATHER, the Climate Crisis Industries favoured weapon of mass hysteria has been scuttled, once again, by their very own authority, the UN IPCC!
THE latest report finding that there is “little basis or evidence” for claiming that drought, floods, hurricanes and cyclones have increased due to greenhouse gases. Tornadoes were not even mentioned, owing to the record lack of.
BUT, alas! Just as the extreme weather findings from last IPCC report – AR5 (2013) – were conveniently dismissed by the mainstream media and climate crusaders, so too will the latest ‘inconvenient’ findings from the SR15 ‘Special Report’.
NEW YORK Times Climate didn’t disappoint!
THE Grey Lady falling foul of one of the Climate Crisis Industries ten commandments – “YOU’RE CONFUSING CLIMATE WITH WEATHER”, whilst blaming CO2 – the magic molecule – for both hot and cold weather!
THE POLAR VORTEX
THE mainstream media in conjunction with warmist ‘scientists’ have been desperate to blame this years Polar Vortex on ‘global warming’.
THE Economist “explains” :
Why Chicago is so cold – Global warming may be to blame | The Economist
“Two sets of air currents determine which parts of North America and Europe get blasted by Arctic air each winter. The stratospheric polar vortex is a smallish patch of low-pressure air that circulates, anti-clockwise, in a ring some 48km (30 miles) above the Arctic. It helps to trap the coldest air near the pole and forms only in winter.
The problem for America’s Midwest is that the Arctic has warmed unusually fast, a result of more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and so the polar jet stream is fluctuating more widely. As a result, the stratospheric polar vortex may slow down, and colder air is drawn southwards. A similar sort of shift in the air currents helped to cause the “Beast from the East” that chilled western Europe in 2018.”
FORTY years ago, the New York Times blamed the Polar Vortex on global cooling and increasing Arctic ice. Now they say the exact opposite – the Polar Vortex is caused by global warming and decreasing Arctic ice:
“A gradual increase in area of the northern circumpolar vortex, the massive flow of frigid air around the Arctic, has been recorded by Drs. Angell and Korshover.”
SCIENCE has known about the Polar Vortex for decades. But, as it contradicts the current ‘global warming’ theory, it’s conveniently forgotten:
THE Polar Vortex used to be evidence of “Another Ice Age” setting in:
Another Ice Age?
Time Magazine Monday, Jun 24, 1974
Scientists have found other indications of global cooling. For one thing there has been a noticeable expansion of the great belt of dry, high-altitude polar winds —the so-called circumpolar vortex
NOW the same Polar Vortex is evidence that the Earth is burning up:
While climate change is warming the earth, not all parts of the earth are warming at the same rate; the Arctic is warming at a rate twice as fast as the world average. That warming has led to historically low levels of sea ice in the region. The melting sea ice, particularly in an area near the Barents and Kara Seas off Siberia, may be linked to the changes in the polar vortex.
“When we lose a lot of ice in that particular area in the summer, it absorbs a lot of extra heat from the sun,” Dr. Francis said. This is because the darker open ocean absorbs more heat than reflective ice. “And so we see a very persistent, hot spot there in terms of temperature differences from what they should be.”
Research suggests that the hot spot, along with changes in the jet stream driven by climate change, cause the polar vortex to break down in mid- to late winter.
WORKING for the New York Times, one would think Kendra would have access to historical (Polar Vortex) articles from her own workplace? Google?
MAYBE delving into the ‘inconvenient’ past simply wrecks her entire narrative. That would be a shame. Pity we had to do it here, for her.
Any student of history can look back and discover that all of history’s mass-murdering socialists — from Hitler to Stalin to Mao — have manufactured audacious lies and scapegoats as a means to consolidate power into a malevolent Central Authority.
Freedom is Slavery.
War is Peace.
Ignorance is Strength.
Cooling is Warming.
CLIMATE IS CYCLICAL
THE science as to what is the predominant driver of climate is far from “settled”. The effect to global temperature per doubling of carbon dioxide is ever-decreasing as “the science” develops. Some estimates are as low as 0.5°C by 2100.
AND then there’s that big yellow light in the sky :
- approximately 330,000 times greater the mass of Earth.
- 1.3 million earths can fit into it.
- contains 99.86% of the mass in the Solar System.
- has a surface temperature of 5,500 °C.
- whose light reaches Earth in 8 minutes and 20 seconds, and
- whose core is around 13600000 degrees Celsius.
YEP, the Sun!
- THE SUN : Climate Control Knob, Enemy Of The Climate Cult | Climatism
- THE SUN : Climate Changer, Climate Driver, Climate Disruptor | Climatism
THE SUN & CLIMATE CHANGE
INSIGHTFUL analysis by Roy Spencer of UAH questioning the theory that declining Arctic sea-ice is the cause of the Polar-Vortex.
SPENCER provides an interesting chart from his colleague John Christy of “cold waves” in the US, showing that they are ‘declining’:
“the connection between Eastern U.S. cold waves and Arctic sea ice is speculative, at best. Just like most theories of climate change.” – Roy Spencer PhD
“At a minimum we should demand good observational support for any specific claim. In this case I would say that the connection between Eastern U.S. cold waves and Arctic sea ice is speculative, at best.
Just like most theories of climate change.”
POLAR VORTEX – “THE MOST POWERFUL (Unnoticed) STORM IN THE WORLD”
FASCINATING video explanation of what is a Polar Vortex by Simon Clark (PhD in theoretical atmospheric physics at the University of Exeter)
Watch especially from 1:20
- Veteran Swiss Meteorologist Slams Media For “Making It Up”…NOAA: Polar Vortex Term “Nothing New…Appeared In 1853”
- Bizarre Theory Linking Global Warming To ‘Polar Vortexes’ Resurfaces. Scientists Are Pushing Back | The Daily Caller
- ‘We’ve Become Dumber’: Media Blames Record Cold On Global Warming | Climate Dispatch
SEE also :
- CLIMATE DUD-PREDICTIONS : ‘Ice-Free’ Arctic Prophesies By The ‘97% Consensus’ And Compliant Mainstream Media | Climatism
- ‘GLOBAL WARMING’ UPDATE : Montreal’s Fête Des Neiges (Winter Snow Festival) Cancelled Due To Extreme Cold! | Climatism
- LIVING Life With “Atmosphere Cancer” | Climatism
- SNOW : Setting The Record Straight | Climatism
- LIFE Inside The Global Warming Bubble | Climatism
- DRACONIAN UN CLIMATE AGENDA EXPOSED : ‘Global Warming Fears Are A Tool For Political and Economic Change…It Has Nothing To Do With The Actual Climate’ | Climatism
CLIMATE DUD-PREDICTIONS : ‘Ice-Free’ Arctic Prophesies By The ‘97% Consensus’ And Compliant Mainstream MediaPosted: January 25, 2019
“WE need to get some broad based support,
to capture the public’s imagination…
So we have to offer up scary scenarios,
make simplified, dramatic statements
and make little mention of any doubts…
Each of us has to decide what the right balance
is between being effective and being honest.“
– Prof. Stephen Schneider,
Stanford Professor of Climatology,
lead author of many IPCC reports
TRUST in the mainstream media is at an all time low.
A 2018 Monmouth University poll found that 77% of the public believe major ‘news’ outlets report “fake news”. A sharp rise from 63% who felt that way the previous year. A 2018 Axios poll found that 92% of Conservatives believe the media intentionally reports fake news. Concerns vindicated this week by two glaring examples of blatant fake news in the Covington Catholic high school and BuzzFeed media fiascos.
NONE of this is surprising, considering that 92%+ of the mainstream media is monopolised by Left-leaning journalists and editorial boards.
FAKE NEWS is par for the course in the Climate Crisis Industry where gross exaggeration, vague causation, alarmist predictions and even outright falsehoods are common place and excused away as acts of nobility in the righteous quest to “Save the Planet”.
GLOBAL WARMING climate change is a licence to lie.
ONE of the perks of climate change scepticism (or realism) is the ability to exploit an almost unlimited supply of wild climate predictions made in the recent past by esteemed ‘experts’ and scientific bodies.
DIRE predictions of an “ice-free” Arctic have remained popular on the climate fear-mongering circuit, owing to the psychological currency of things melting and not least the emotional relevance applicable to the fate of the Arctic’s most famous resident – the polar bear…
ARCTIC SEA-ICE FALSE PROPHESIES
A sample of Arctic sea-ice predictions made by members of the ‘97% consensus’ :
STATE OF ARCTIC SEA-ICE : 2018 SUMMER MINIMUM
ARCTIC SEA-ICE EXTENT (September 2018)
MINIMUM sea-ice extent has been trending up over the past decade. The EXACT opposite of what the press and ‘97% experts’ have been telling you :
ARCTIC SEA-ICE VOLUME (September 2018)
2.0 – 3.0 meter-thick sea-ice covered most of the Arctic basin during the 2018 summer minimum :
ARCTIC minimum sea-ice volume has been increasing since 2007 :
CURRENT STATE OF ARCTIC SEA-ICE TO DATE
ARCTIC sea-ice extent is very close to the 1981-2010 median :
THE ARCTIC MELT ‘PAUSE’
CLAIMS that Arctic sea ice is disappearing are patently false. There has been no trend in Arctic sea ice extent since the start of MASIE records in 2006.
(Charts c/o Tony Heller – Real Climate Science)
THERE has also been no trend in Arctic sea ice volume since 2006 :
FAKE NEWS ~ Enemy Of The People
THE daily bombardment of fake climate news by the Climate Crisis Media helps foment a conventional wisdom and an accepted world view that there really is a “climate crisis”. This leads to gullible and virtue-signalling politicians, pressured by eco-activist minorities, to enact draconian and costly UN-based climate policies that are doing far more damage to people’s livelihoods and their economies, right now, than any purported 1-2°C “fabricated” temperature rise could ever do by 2100.
“The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible.” – Bertrand Russell
COLD ‘weather’ is killing more people than usual.
THE BBC reports :
Excess winter deaths in Wales almost doubled in 2017-18 – rising from 1,850 the year before to 3,400.
Public health experts said adverse weather and influenza were to blame for the increase, hitting older people in particular.
Experts said it was the highest number of excess deaths since the winter of 1975.
But officials said spikes in winter deaths were not uncommon – with eight peaks over the past 40 years.
Across England and Wales, there were 50,100 excess deaths last winter.
However, this is half the number of excess deaths recorded in the winter of 1950 – when there were 106,400 extra winter deaths.
MEANWHILE, BBC Climate Change activist, Roger Harrabin, notes the declining energy habits of UK consumers…
ACCORDING to Harrabin, via website Carbon Brief, UK energy consumers are using 25% less electricity, now, than they were in 2015.
ONE wonders if Harrabin thrives in the virtues of energy rationing without feeling bothered to mention the obvious negative effects of draconian climate change policies and symbolic gestures that fuel energy poverty, leading to a dramatic increase in winter-related deaths.
PERHAPS it’s because Harrabin can afford ‘green’ luxuries, unlike many of the silent majority, or the 1.3 billion people without any electricity at all.
SEE also :
- ‘GREEN’ Energy Poverty : Thousands Dying Because They Can’t Afford Heating Bills | Climatism
- GREEN ENERGY POVERTY: Volunteer Knitters In High Demand As Soaring Power Prices Leave People Cold | Climatism
- “Runaway Global Warming” Update: 48,000 Brits Dead After Worst Winter In 42 Years | Climatism
- DRACONIAN UN CLIMATE AGENDA EXPOSED : ‘Global Warming Fears Are A Tool For Political and Economic Change…It Has Nothing To Do With The Actual Climate’ | Climatism
“THE journalists come up and they’re not interested in what the truth is. They’re only interested in finding out where the ‘dead’ reef is. And when people who work right up and down the reef can’t actually take them to a single place that is going to suit their dooms-day story, then we sort of need a bit of balance…”
– Paul Talbott : GBR Tourist operator
STRAIGHT-TALKING former James Cook University marine geophysicist Professor Peter Ridd has been an outspoken critic of the relentless tide of fear-mongering, misinformation and anti-science hysteria advanced by climate change activists concerning the health of the Great Barrier Reef.
IN June of 2016, Ridd made the headlines after suspecting something was wrong with photographs being used to highlight the apparent rapid decline of the Great Barrier Reef:
AFTER attempting to blow the whistle on the bogus pictures, Ridd was censured and subsequently sacked by James Cook University. (Ridd is currently suing JCU)
After a formal investigation, Professor Ridd was found guilty of “failing to act in a collegial way and in the academic spirit of the institution”!
His crime was to encourage questioning of two of the nation’s leading reef institutions, the Centre of Excellence for Coral Studies and the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, on whether they knew that photographs they had published and claimed to show long-term collapse of reef health could be misleading and wrong.” Graham Lloyd – The Australian – 11 June 2016
SIMILAR totalitarian treatment was dished out by
free-thinking James Cook University to the late and great Bob Carter, a former JCU adjunct Professor. Carter was a world renowned climate change expert and sceptic. His crime – speaking outside the permitted doctrine of global warming climate change.
PROFESSOR RIDD writes an ever insightful and eye-opening piece on the reef in today’s Australian.
RIDD comments on the recent backtracking by Scientists from James Cook University who just published a paper on the bleaching and death of corals on the Great Barrier Reef and were surprised that the death rate was less than they expected…
Coral can take the heat, unlike experts crying wolf
Scientists from James Cook University have just published a paper on the bleaching and death of corals on the Great Barrier Reef and were surprised that the death rate was less than they expected, because of the adaptability of corals to changing temperatures.
It appears as though they exaggerated their original claims and are quietly backtracking.
To misquote Oscar Wilde, to exaggerate once is a misfortune, to do it twice looks careless, but to do it repeatedly looks like unforgivable systemic unreliability by some of our major science organisations.
The very rapid adaptation of corals to high temperatures is a well-known phenomenon; besides, if you heat corals in a given year, they tend to be less susceptible in the future to overheating. This is why corals are one of the least likely species to be affected by climate change, irrespective of whether you believe the climate is changing by natural fluctuations or because of human influence.
Corals have a unique way of dealing with changing temperature, by changing the microscopic plants that live inside them. These microscopic plants, called zooxanthellae, give the coral energy from the sun through photosynthesis in exchange for a comfortable home inside the coral. When the water gets hot, these little plants effectively become poisonous to the coral and the coral throws them out, which turns the coral white — that is, it bleaches.
But most of the time, the coral will recover from the bleaching. And here’s the trick: the corals take in new zooxanthellae, that floats around in the water quite naturally, and can selectselecting different species that are better suited to hot weather.
Most other organisms have to change their genetic make-up to deal with temperature changes — something that can take many generations. But corals can do it in a few weeks by just changing the plants that live in them.
They have learned a thing or two in a couple of hundred million years of evolution.
The problem here is that the world has been completely misled about the effects of bleaching by scientists who rarely mention the spectacular regrowth that occurs. For example, the 2016 bleaching event supposedly killed 93 per cent, or half, or 30 per cent of the reef, depending on which headline and scientist you want to believe.
However, the scientists looked only at coral in very shallow water — less than 2m below the surface — which is only a small fraction of all the coral, but by far the most susceptible to getting hot in the tropical sun.
A recent study found that deep-water coral (down to more than 40m) underwent far less bleaching, as one would expect. I estimate that less than 8 per cent of the Barrier Reef coral died. That might still sound like a lot, but considering that there was a 250 per cent increase in coral between 2011 and 2016 for the entire southern zone, an 8 per cent decrease is nothing to worry about. Coral recovers fast.
But this is just the tip of the exaggeration iceberg. Some very eminent scientists claim that bleaching never happened before the 1980s and is entirely a man-made phenomenon. This was always a ridiculous proposition.
A recent study of 400-year-old corals has found that bleaching has always occurred and is no more common now than in the past. Scientists have also claimed that there has been a 15 per cent reduction in the growth rate of corals. However, some colleagues and I demonstrated that there were serious errors in their work and that, if anything, there has been a slight increase in the coral growth rate over the past 100 years.
This is what one would expect in a gently warming climate. Corals grow up to twice as fast in the hotter water of Papua New Guinea and the northern Barrier Reef than in the southern reef. I could quote many more examples.
This unreliability of the science is now a widely accepted scandal in many other areas of study and it has a name: the replication crisis. When checks are made to replicate or confirm scientific results, it is regularly found that about half have flaws. This is an incredible and scandalous situation, a view shared by the editors of eminent journals and many science institutions. A great deal of effort is going into fixing this problem, especially in the biomedical sciences, where it was first recognised.
But not for Barrier Reef science. The science institutions deny there is a problem and fail to correct erroneous work. When Piers Larcombe and I submitted an article to a scientific journal suggesting we needed a little additional checking of Great Barrier Reef science, the response from many very eminent scientists was that there was no need. Everything was fine. I am not sure if this is blind optimism or wilful negligence, but why would anybody object to a little more checking? It would cost only a few million dollars — just a tiny fraction of what governments will be spending on the reef.
But the truth will out eventually. The scare stories about the Barrier Reef started in the 1960s, when scientists first started work on it. They have been crying wolf ever since. But the data keeps coming in and, yes, sometimes a great deal of coral dies in a spectacular manner, with accompanying media fanfare. It is like a bushfire on land — it looks terrible at first, but it quietly and rapidly grows back, ready for the scientists to peddle their story all over again.
Peter Ridd was, until fired this year, a physicist at James Cook University’s marine geophysical laboratory.
SEE also :
- ALARMISTS U-TURN : Scientists Confirm Great Barrier Reef Is Recovering From Bleaching, Again | Climatism