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DEATH OF A CLIMATE ICON : A Lesson For Researchers In Other Areas Who Have Failed To Stop The Invasion Of Politics Into Their Science

POLAR BEARS - Death Of A Climate Icon

POLAR BEARS – Death Of A Climate Icon | Climatism


“Those who can make you believe absurdities,
can make you commit atrocities.”
– Voltaire

“Blind trust in authority
is the greatest enemy of the truth.”
Albert Einstein

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THE polar bear as an icon for Global Warming Climate Change is dead, because the distorted predictions made by Polar Bear ‘specialists’ were wrong.

THIS is a lesson for researchers in other areas who have failed to stop the invasion of politics into their science.

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TUCKER CARLSON interviews Zoologist and Polar Bear specialist Dr. Susan Crockford on the prime time ratings-killer show Tucker Carlson Tonight, in a must watch segment that demonstrates how “overpopulation”, not extinction, is now the problem :

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THE Global Warming Policy Foundation has since released an excellent short video showing why the polar bear no longer serves as the icon of the climate change movement :

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H/t Green Jihad

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POLAR BEAR related :

SEE also :

Read the rest of this entry »

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GLOBAL Wildfire Area Has Declined, Contrary To Popular Myth

“Time after time, forestry experts tell us that wildfires are not getting worse because of climate change, that from a historical perspective current wildfire activity is not unusual, and that we are now seeing the results of decades of fire suppression and poor forest management.”

ANOTHER ‘inconvenient’ study directly contradicting the apocalyptic narrative of the 2 TRILLION dollar per year, Climate Crisis Industry…

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Another thorough assessment of wildfire trends wrecks alarmist claims:

image

ABSTRACT

Wildfire has been an important process affecting the Earth’s surface and atmosphere for over 350 million years and human societies have coexisted with fire since their emergence. Yet many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses. However, important exceptions aside, the quantitative evidence available does not support these perceived overall trends. Instead, global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago. Regarding fire severity, limited data are available. For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement. Direct fatalities from fire and economic losses…

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DEAR Climate Change Alarmists, We Are Doing Just Fine Thanks, And So Is Our Sea-Ice! Regards, Polar Bears

POLAR BEARS - We Are Fine | CLIMATISM

POLAR BEARS – We Are Fine | CLIMATISM


“Inuit believe there are now so many bears that
public safety has become a major concern,”
Nunavut’s polar bear population is unsafe,
government document says – The Globe and Mail

“Public safety concerns, combined with the effects of
polar bears on other species, suggest that
in many Nunavut communities, the polar bear
may have exceeded the co-existence threshold.”
Nunavut’s polar bear population is unsafe,
government document says – The Globe and Mail

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DIRE predictions of an “ice-free” Arctic have remained popular on the climate change fear-mongering circuit, owing to the psychological and political currency of all things melting and not least the emotional relevance applicable to the fate of the Arctic’s most famous resident and ‘global warming’ mascot – the polar bear.

SOME of the failed Arctic sea-ice predictions by alarmists ‘scientists’ and the fake news media over the years :

  • “Arctic summers ice-free by 2013” (BBC 2007)
  • “Could all Arctic ice be gone by 2012?” (AP 2007)
  • “Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?”(National Geographic 2007)
  • “Imagine yourself in a world five years from now, where there is no more ice over the Arctic” – Tim Flannery (2008)
  • “North Pole could be ice-free in 2008” – Mark Serreze (New Scientist 2008)
  • “Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014” (USA Today 2009)
  • “Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within 4 years” (Guardian 2012)
  • “Say Goodbye to Arctic Summer Ice” (Live Science 2013)
  • “Ice-free Arctic in two years heralds methane catastrophe – scientist” (The Guardian 2013)
  • “Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013” (Sierra Club 2013)
  • “Next year or the year after, the Arctic will be free of ice’” – Peter Wadhams (The Guardian 2016)

Source : CLIMATE DUD-PREDICTIONS : ‘Ice-Free’ Arctic Prophesies By The ‘97% Consensus’ And Compliant Mainstream Media | Climatism

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CURRENT STATE OF THE ARCTIC 

MINIMUM sea-ice extent has been trending up over the past twelve years. The EXACT opposite of what the mainstream media and ‘97% experts’ have been telling you :

MINIMUM Arctic sea-ice volume has been rising, not declining, since 2007 :

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@KiryeNet キリエ on Twitter : “The Arctic has been refreezing for 12 years…minimum sea ice volume has been rising since 2007”

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ARCTIC SEA-ICE EXTENT TO DATE

ARCTIC sea-ice extent is very close to the 1981-2010 median :

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ARCTIC TEMPS & MELT CYCLES

ARCTIC temperatures and melt cycles correlate almost perfectly with ocean circulation cycles (AMO), and show no correlation with atmospheric CO2 levels :

reykjavik-iceland-temperatures-vs-the-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation

Reykjavik, Iceland Temperatures Vs. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

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POLAR BEARS 

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NO other icon of ‘Global Warming’ epitomises its very own false narrative like the polar bear does for ‘Climate Change’.

WITH deadly irony, polar bear numbers have grown dramatically as carbon dioxide emissions have risen in lock-step. A CO2 correlation, at last!

INDIGENOUS Inuit’s of Northern Canada are now facing the very real task of having to cull the population as “the polar bear may have exceeded the co-existence threshold.”

“Inuit believe there are now so many bears that public safety has become a major concern,”

“Public safety concerns, combined with the effects of polar bears on other species, suggest that in many Nunavut communities, the polar bear may have exceeded the co-existence threshold.”

Nunavut’s polar bear population is unsafe, government document says – The Globe and Mail

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POLAR BEAR POPULATION (1981 – 2015)

screen-shot-2019-01-19-at-4.26.11-am.png

Polar Bear Population (1981 – 2015)

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POLAR BEAR POPULATION – THE LATEST COUNT!

via Susan Crockford PhD :

Susan Crockford is zoologist with more than 35 years experience, including published work on the Holocene history of Arctic animals. She is currently an adjunct professor at the University of Victoria, British Columbia.

About | polarbearscience

Latest global polar bear abundance ‘best guess’ estimate is 39,000 (26,000-58,000)

It’s long past time for polar bear specialists to stop holding out for a scientifically accurate global estimate that will never be achieved and determine a reasonable and credible ‘best guess’. Since they have so far refused to do this, I have done it for them. My extrapolated estimate of 39,000 (range 26,000-58,000) at 2018 is not only plausible but scientifically defensible.

In 2014, the chairman of the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG) emailed me to say that their global population size number ‘has never been an estimate of total abundance in a scientific sense, but simply a qualified guess given to satisfy public demand.’

In my new book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, I contend that this situation will probably never change, so it’s time to stop holding out for a scientifically accurate global estimate and generate a reasonable and credible ‘best guess’. Recent surveys from several critical polar bear subpopulations have given us the information necessary to do this.

These new numbers make it possible to extrapolate from ‘known’ to ‘unknown’ subpopulations within so-called ‘sea ice ecoregions’ (defined in 2007 by polar bear scientists at the US Geological Survey, see Amstrup et al. 2007), as shown below, to update old estimates and generate new ones for never-studied areas.

usgs-polar-bear_ecoregions_icedrift.jpg

USGS – Polar Bear Ecoregions

Since the PBSG has so far refused to take this step, I took on the challenge. I contend that an estimate of about 39,000 (range 26,000-58,000) at 2018 is not only plausible but scientifically defensible. See the graph below from my new book:

population-size-estimate-graph-chapter-10-e1553617271572

Global polar bear population size estimates to 2018. From Chapter 10 of The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened (Crockford 2019).

This new estimate for 2018 is a modest 4-6 fold increase over the 10,000 or so bears that existed in the 1960s and after 25 years, a credible increase over the estimate of 25,000 that the PBSG offered in 1993 (Wiig et al. 1995).

However, my new estimate is much larger than the improbable figure of about 26,000 (range 22,000-31,000) offered by PGSG biologists in 2015 (Regehr et al. 2016; Wiig et al. 2015). The scary question is this: what do Arctic residents do if there are actually as many as 58,000?

See my new book (Crockford 2019) for the full rationale and references used to arrive at this figure.

The bottom line: it is scientifically unacceptable for the PBSG to continue to refuse to provide an extrapolated ‘best guess’ global estimate for polar bears, given that the scientifically accurate estimate they crave is essentially unattainable. An estimate of about 39,000 (range 26,000-58,000) at 2018 is not only plausible but scientifically defensible. Read the rest of this entry »


MONGOLIA : A Toxic Warning To The world – BBC

CLASSIC example of the climate theory-obsessed BBC defaulting to “CLIMATE CHANGE” in order to push their misanthropic agenda.

DIVING a little deeper, reveals what is really going on in Mongolia…

“Ulaanbaatar is going through the same process of economic development as western cities did a century or so ago. And the answer to their problems is the same – economic development, which allows them to clean up their environment at the same time as improving standards of living.

As for her claim that this will become the norm, the reverse is true. Across the world, cities are managing to improve air quality. And they are doing it by better technology, not by stopping using fossil fuels.

Certainly the idea, which is implied by Hegarty, that they could replace it with ‘clean energy’ sources would end up with most of them freezing to death.”

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Robin Guenier

Another preposterous “blame it on global warming” video from the BBC:

image

Mongolia: A toxic warning to the world

All over the world cities are grappling with apocalyptic air pollution but the small capital of Mongolia is suffering from some of the worst in the world.

And the problem is intrinsically linked to climate change.

The country has already warmed by 2.2 degrees, forcing thousands of people to abandon the countryside and the traditional herding lifestyle every year for the smog-choked city where 90% of children are breathing toxic air every day.

Population Reporter Stephanie Hegarty finds out why.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/science-environment-47673327/mongolia-a-toxic-warning-to-the-world

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COGNITIVE BIAS : Climate Change Alarmists Refuse To Accept ‘The Science’ That Proves Extreme Weather Events Are NOT Increasing

EXTREME WEATHER - Cognitive Bias - CLIMATISM

EXTREME WEATHER : Cognitive Bias | Climatism


“WHEN the heart rules the head,
passion takes over reason.”

Ortega y Gasset

“IT would not be impossible to prove with sufficient repetition and a psychological understanding of the people concerned that a square is in fact a circle. They are mere words, and words can be molded until they clothe ideas and disguise.”
Joseph Goebbels

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THE widely held belief that ‘Extreme Weather’ has become worse, as a result of man-made carbon dioxide emissions, is a tribute to the success of climate change propaganda pushed relentlessly by CO2-centric politicians and compliant mainstream media.

PROMOTING Extreme Weather is specifically designed to shift public opinion about the purported seriousness of human-induced global warming climate change, through the use of emotional imagery and dire prognostications in order for draconian and costly climate policy to be accepted and implemented with as little resistance as possible from the taxpaying public.

COGNITIVE BIAS fuelled by an era of mass hysteria, delusion, groupthink and panic has helped foster dark and far-fetched clichés of a current “climate crisis”, that is an “existential threat” which will “end civilisation by 2030”.

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THANKS to the dramatic rise in personal weather recording devices – smart phones and CCTV – the sampling rate (what you see or hear directly) of Extreme Weather events, broadcast via social and mainstream media, has risen dramatically in recent years.

BUT, have actual Extreme Weather events increased in frequency or intensity? In particular, over long-term ‘climate’ scales?

THE short answer is a big fat NO! Extreme Weather events have not increased in frequency or intensity as carbon dioxide emissions have increased. In many cases the exact opposite is occurring.

THIS ‘inconvenient’ fact has been proven by empirical data and confirmed by the last two (warmist) U.N. IPCC reports on Extreme Weather: SREX (AR5) 2013 report and the latest SR15 report released August, 2018:

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EXTREME WEATHER METRICS


DROUGHT

UN IPCC : “Low confidence in the sign of drought trends since 1950 at global scale…likely to be trends in some regions of the world, including increases in drought in the Mediterranean and W Africa & decreases in droughts in central N America & NW Australia” UN IPCC SR15 (2018)

GLOBAL TREND

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NO historical trend in U.S. drought as CO₂ rises :

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1934 : WHEN CO₂ WAS AT ‘SAFE’ LEVELS

IN 1934, when CO₂ was at ‘safe’ levels, severe to extreme drought covered around 80% of the entire U.S. Such conditions endured for most of the decade known as the “Dust Bowl” era :

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400 PPM ‘DANGEROUS’ CO₂

CURRENT U.S. drought conditions with CO₂ at ‘dangerous’ levels (400PPM) :

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CALIFORNIA’s “PERMANENT DROUGHT” UPDATE

THANKS to superstitious climate kiddies wagging school, in just 3 years, California went from 97% in drought to just 1% :

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WHEN CO₂ was at ‘safe’ levels, droughts in California lasted for 200 years :

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FLOODS

“There is low confidence due to limited evidence, however, that anthropogenic climate change has affected the frequency and the magnitude of floods.” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)

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HEATWAVES

ACCORDING to the EPA, the low-CO2 1930s had (by far) the worst heatwaves in US history :

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WHEN CO₂ was at ‘safe levels’, Adelaide’s temperature climbed above 100°F, six days in a row.

ADELAIDE – March, 1940 :

  1. Friday  –  24°C (74.4F)
  2. Saturday  –  24°C (75.7F)
  3. Sunday  –  28°C (81.7F)
  4. Monday  –  34°C (93.5F)
  5. Tuesday  –  31°C (88.4F)
  6. Wednesday  –  35°C (94.9F)
  7. Thursday  –  40°C (103.9F)
  8. Friday  –  42°C (107.7F)
  9. Saturday  –  43°C (110.1F)
  10. Sunday  –  42°C (108.3F)
  11. Monday  –  42°C (107.9F)
  12. Tuesday  –  40°C (103.6F)

RECORD MARCH HEAT WAVE : Six Consecutive Days Above 100°F | Climatism

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GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONES

“Numerous studies towards and beyond AR5 have reported a decreasing trend
in the global number of tropical cyclones and/or the globally accumulated cyclonic energy”UN IPCC SR15 (2018)

“There is only low confidence regarding changes in global tropical cyclone numbers under global warming over the last four decades.”UN IPCC SR15 (2018)

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AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL CYCLONES

AUSTRALIAN tropical cyclones are declining in both intensity and frequency as CO₂ rises :

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HURRICANES

GLOBAL Hurricanes are declining in both frequency and intensity as CO₂ increases :

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CAT 3+ U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes (per decade) declining rapidly as CO₂ emissions rise :

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FLORIDA Major Hurricane Strikes – Still No Trend :

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TORNADOES

2018 was one of the least active US tornado years on record, despite record and rising CO₂ emissions.

AS of October, a new record low tornado count was set. The cumulative total for 2018 is 759; the previous lowest number of tornadoes for this date was 761. The SPC has records extending back 65 years.

This lack of tornadic storms in recent years should also correlate with lesser severe thunderstorm activity in general in the U.S., since the conditions which produce large hail and damaging winds are generally the same as are required for tornadoes (strong instability, plentiful moisture, and wind shear). – Roy Spencer PhD

NB// The US represents about 75 percent of the world’s recorded tornadoes.

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THE frequency of strong to violent tornadoes is also decreasing :

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THE trend is clearly down across the board. Yet why are no mainstream journalists curious about this?

NB// IPCC SR15 “Extreme Weather” report made no mention of Tornadoes. Nor, the mainstream media!

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GLOBAL WEATHER DISASTERS / LOSSES

GLOBAL weather disasters/losses as a percentage of global GDP are declining as CO₂  emissions rise.

THROUGH 7 months of 2018 weather disasters as % GDP were on record (low) pace…

NB// LOSS data does not include the two big CAT4’s that struck the US in 2018 – Florence (Sep) and Michael (Oct).

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CONCLUSION

BIAS BY OMISSION

IN my opinion, the worst form of propaganda is ‘bias by omission’ – information and facts that you are ‘not’ told about, in order to keep the truth from you.

THE mainstream media has not and will not report the facts on “Extreme Weather”, as clearly laid out in the science and data above, because such facts are obviously extremely ‘inconvenient’ to their “catastrophic” man-made global warming narrative.

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VITAL information central to the potential seriousness of climate change – Extreme Weather – has been purposely omitted by the mainstream media and replaced by emotions, alarmism and exaggerations in order to fit the climate-calamity narrative designed to scare you into belief and obedience.

THIS is why the global warming climate change debate has become so dangerously deceptive and dishonest. Climate truths hidden from you and replaced with a narrative far more acceptable – Hollywood-style climate hysteria based on alarmism, increased sampling rates and overheated, CO2-centric climate models that do not accord with observed reality.

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UPDATE

DID not see either of these instructive graphs painted on a placards at any of the kiddie climate rallies last Friday. Guess they don’t fit their ‘catastrophic’ climate narrative…

Climate related deaths Vs non related

Global Deaths from Climate and non-Climate Catastrophes, 1920-2018

CO2 emissoins Vs Poverty

Carbon Emissions and World Prosperity

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PERHAPS the climate kids would have been wise to read and learn the words of H.L. Mencken, before being forced out by their parents and teachers to act as standard bearers of new radical eco-socialism, protected by ‘innocence’ and lack of age :

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule it.” – H.L. Mencken

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Read the rest of this entry »


AUSTRALIA’s Hottest Summer? Maybe Not.

“FAR from this year being the record, the hottest summer was actually back in 1900. This summer only ranks 5th, behind 2017, 1902 and 2006.

THE summers of 1884 and 1901 are also close behind.

IN fact, the spate of hot summers recently look little different to those of the early 1900s.”

74E1DDC3-5B94-49FD-8EFC-C9EAD7A8609E

Walgett 1880 to 2019

EXCELLENT investigative work, again, by Mr. Paul Homewood.

THE precise job that the mainstream media should and must be doing in order to keep a check on government and its institutions.

BUT, just as our top ‘scientific’ organisations have been captured by environmental elites, so too have the majority-Leftist mainstream media.

AND, for the mainstream media – keeping “truth to power” in the area of the ‘environment’ would mean sanitising their man-made global warming narrative that they’ve invested so much political capital, ideology and personal ego into for decades. Not gonna happen!

ERGO, tough times indeed for “truth to power” to exist in the fashionable age of climate change virtue-signalling, driven by politics, propaganda, bureaucratic pseudoscience and trillions of dollars of taxpayers hard-earned.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

This made news a couple of weeks ago, but I have been waiting for full details from the BOM:

image

Australia has experienced its hottest summer on record, according to the nation’s Bureau of Meteorology.

Hundreds of individual heat records were shattered across the country over the past three months.

The warm weather, 2.14C above the long-term average, caused bushfires, blackouts and a rise in hospital admissions.

Wildlife also suffered, with reports of mass deaths of wild horses, native bats and fish.

“The real standout was just how widespread and prolonged each heatwave was – almost everywhere was affected,” climatologist Blair Trewin told the BBC.

Temperatures had exceeded the previous hottest summer in 2012-13 by nearly 1C, he added – “a very large margin for a national record”.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-47410366

Naturally the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has blamed it on climate change. But is it quite as simple as…

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POLAR BEAR Habitat Update: Abundant Sea Ice Across The Arctic, Even In The Barents Sea

  • “Arctic summers ice-free by 2013” (BBC 2007)
  • “Could all Arctic ice be gone by 2012?” (AP 2007)
  • “Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?”(National Geographic 2007)
  • “Imagine yourself in a world five years from now, where there is no more ice over the Arctic” – Tim Flannery (2008)
  • “North Pole could be ice-free in 2008” – Mark Serreze (New Scientist 2008)
  • “Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014” (USA Today 2009)
  • “Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within 4 years” (Guardian 2012)
  • “Say Goodbye to Arctic Summer Ice” (Live Science 2013)
  • “Ice-free Arctic in two years heralds methane catastrophe – scientist” (The Guardian 2013)
  • “Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013” (Sierra Club 2013)
  • “Next year or the year after, the Arctic will be free of ice’” – Peter Wadhams (The Guardian 2016)

DIRE predictions of an “ice-free” Arctic have remained popular on the climate change fear-mongering circuit, owing to the psychological and political currency of all things melting and not least the emotional relevance applicable to the fate of the Arctic’s most famous resident and ‘global warming’ mascot – the polar bear.

CLIMATE DUD-PREDICTIONS : ‘Ice-Free’ Arctic Prophesies By The ‘97% Consensus’ And Compliant Mainstream Media | Climatism

polarbearscience

Abundant ice in Svalbard, East Greenland and the Labrador Sea is excellent news for the spring feeding season ahead because this is when bears truly need the presence of ice for hunting and mating. As far as I can tell, sea ice has not reached Bear Island, Norway at this time of year since 2010 but this year ice moved down to the island on 3 March and has been there ever since. This may mean we’ll be getting reports of polar bear sightings from the meteorological station there, so stay tuned.

Walking bear shutterstock_329214941_web size

Sea ice extent as of 11 March 2019, from NSIDC Masie:

masie_all_zoom_4km 2019 March 11

Much of the ice that was blown out of the Bering Sea early in the month has returned and ice in the Gulf of St. Lawrence on the East Coast of Canada is the highest its been in years, threatening to impede ferry traffic between Nova…

View original post 456 more words