Posted: November 28, 2016 Filed under: Carbon Dioxide, Climate science, Data Tampering, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Failed Climate Models, Gavin Schmidt, Global Cooling, Global Temperature, Global Warming Stasis, Global Warming Zealots, NASA, NOAA, Satellite Data, UAH | Tags: El Nino, Gavin Schmidt, GISS, Global Temperature, GWPF, La Niña, nasa, Natural Climate Change, Natural Climate Forcings, RSS Satellite Data, UAH satellite data
Record Drop In Global Temperatures As El Nino Warming Ends | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
The controversial global warming aka climate change “hiatus/pause”, lingering like a bad smell to climate alarmists for nearly two decades, is back in play with a record drop in global temperatures since the middle of the year.
Temperatures are heading south rapidly. The latest huge drop despite record and increasing CO2 emissions.
Must be nearing revision time for the theory of Catastrophic Global Warming with regards to CO2-sensitivity?
Via GWPF :
(Bolds added by Climatism)
RECORD DROP IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURES AS EL NINO WARMING ENDS
Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year – their biggest and steepest fall on record. According to satellite data, the late 2016 temperatures are returning to the levels they were at after the 1998 El Nino.
The news comes amid mounting evidence that the recent run of world record high temperatures is about to end.
The fall, revealed by Nasa satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere, has been caused by the end of El Nino – the warming of surface waters in a vast area of the Pacific west of Central America.
Some scientists, including Dr Gavin Schmidt, head of Nasa’s climate division, have claimed that the recent highs were mainly the result of long-term global warming.
Others have argued that the records were caused by El Nino, a complex natural phenomenon that takes place every few years, and has nothing to do with greenhouse gas emissions by humans.
The new fall in temperatures suggests they were right.
Big El Ninos always have an immense impact on world weather, triggering higher than normal temperatures over huge swathes of the world. The 2015-16 El Nino was probably the strongest since accurate measurements began, with the water up to 3C warmer than usual.
It has now been replaced by a La Nina event – when the water in the same Pacific region turns colder than normal.
This also has worldwide impacts, driving temperatures down rather than up.
The satellite measurements over land respond quickly to El Nino and La Nina. Temperatures over the sea are also falling, but not as fast, because the sea retains heat for longer.
This means it is possible that by some yardsticks, 2016 will be declared as hot as 2015 or even slightly hotter – because El Nino did not vanish until the middle of the year.
But it is almost certain that next year, large falls will also be measured over the oceans, and by weather station thermometers on the surface of the planet – exactly as happened after the end of the last very strong El Nino in 1998. If so, some experts will be forced to eat their words.
Last year, Dr Schmidt said 2015 would have been a record hot year even without El Nino.
‘The reason why this is such a warm record year is because of the long-term underlying trend, the cumulative effect of the long-term warming trend of our Earth,’ he said. This was ‘mainly caused’ by the emission of greenhouse gases by humans.
Dr Schmidt also denied that there was any ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ in global warming between the 1998 and 2015 El Ninos.
But on its website home page yesterday, Nasa featured a new study which said there was a hiatus in global warming before the recent El Nino, and discussed why this was so. Last night Dr Schmidt had not returned a request for comment.
However, both his own position, and his Nasa division, may be in jeopardy. US President-elect Donald Trump is an avowed climate change sceptic, who once claimed it was a hoax invented by China.
Last week, Mr Trump’s science adviser Bob Walker said he was likely to axe Nasa’s $1.9 billion (about £1.4 billion) climate research budget.
Other experts have also disputed Dr Schmidt’s claims. Professor Judith Curry, of the Georgia Institute of Technology, and president of the Climate Forecast Applications Network, said yesterday: ‘I disagree with Gavin. The record warm years of 2015 and 2016 were primarily caused by the super El Nino.’
The slowdown in warming was, she added, real, and all the evidence suggested that since 1998, the rate of global warming has been much slower than predicted by computer models – about 1C per century.
David Whitehouse, a scientist who works with Lord Lawson’s sceptic Global Warming Policy Foundation, said the massive fall in temperatures following the end of El Nino meant the warming hiatus or slowdown may be coming back.
‘According to the satellites, the late 2016 temperatures are returning to the levels they were at after the 1998 El Nino.
The data clearly shows El Nino for what it was – a short-term weather event,’ he said.
Record Drop In Global Temperatures As El Nino Warming Ends | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
NASA and NOAA will be tweaking their heads and data-sets overtime in order to declare 2016 as “The Hottest Year Evah”. Possibly too late in the year to wipe out this years “Super El niño”.
Further analysis from Paul Homewood’s excellent site Not A Lot Of People Know That :
Rose uses satellite data for his graph, but the NOAA surface data for land also gives a stark picture:
Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
Even NOAA admit that October was by far the coldest over land since 2001, despite the fact that are we still awaiting the start of La Nina.
It is also becoming increasingly apparent that this year’s El Nino event is the strongest one at least for the last 60 years, more powerful than 1983/3 and 1997/8.
Whilst it has not peaked quite as high, it has been much more longer lasting.
Earth System Research Laboratory : PSD : (none)
Global Land Temperatures Plummet In October | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
Posted: August 17, 2016 Filed under: Climate Fraud, Climate science, Data Tampering, Eco-Activists, Environmentalists, Fact Check, Gavin Schmidt, Global Temperature, Govt Climate Agenda, Green Agenda, NASA, Pseudo-Science, Scientific Fraud | Tags: El Nino, Gavin Schmidt, Global Temperature, Global Warming Scam, nasa, QandA, Scientific Fraud
The latest scientific fraud update c/o Gavin Schmidt’s NASA…
“it’s disturbing that NASA is promoting such a graph—and that climate alarmists are using it without either knowing or caring that it is based on a very distorted representation of temperature data.”
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
From Climate Change Dispatch:
Has anyone looked at the recent National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA GISS) Surface Temperature Analysis? A chart of it was used in a recent Australian Broadcasting Company debate on global warming to make the case that surface temperatures have risen continuously during the past 20 years.
There’s a pretty blatant problem with the NASA chart, however. And it’s a fault that anyone with even a cursory knowledge of climate studies would recognize.
The NASA GISS analysis essentially eliminates the 1998 El Niño. Instead of the ’98 El Niño towering above neighboring years, thanks to its massive release of stored Pacific Ocean heat content, 1998 is simply depicted as one rung on an ever-climbing temperature ladder. And then, suddenly, there’s 2016, with an El Niño that explodes far above all of the preceding years.
View original post 171 more words
Posted: May 12, 2016 Filed under: Uncategorized
Watts Up With That?
Global Cooling In The Works
The current El Nino phenomenon that has brought prolonged drought and sweltering heat to Malaysia is the strongest of the 20 over the last 60 years, but there is no concrete evidence to link its heat intensity to global warming, says former IPCC vice-chairman. Climatologist and oceanographer Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia said this year’s El Nino was even more extreme than the severe phenomena experienced in 1982/82 and 1997/98. “There is no conclusive evidence that the occurrence of El Nino (frequency and intensity) is influenced by climate change,” said Tangang, who had served from 2008 to 2015 as vice-chairperson of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations agency.
The IPCC, which comprises representatives from 190 countries, produces a report every six to seven years on the trend of global climate change, its causes and impacts and how to…
View original post 178 more words
Posted: April 19, 2018 Filed under: Alarmism, Alarmism Debunked, Alarmism uncovered, Alarmist media, Australia, Climatism, Coral Bleaching, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Fake News, Flannery, Government Grants/Funding, Great Barrier Reef, Oceans, Propaganda, Pseudo-Science, Tim Flannery | Tags: ABC, Activist Media, Alarmism, Beast From The East, Climate Change, Climate science, Coral, Coral Bleaching, Fake News, Global Warming, Global Warming Alarmism, Government Funding, Government grants, Great Barrier Reef, James Cook Uni, JCU, Mainstream media, nature, Oceans, Polar Vortex, Professor Peter Ridd, Professor Terry Hughes, science, Science and Environment
IT hasn’t been the best start to the year for the global warming doom industry. Three consecutive “Beast From The East’s“ caused by super-cold Arctic air have resulted in 48,000 non-heat related deaths in the UK alone, as the 2017/18 Northern Hemisphere mega-winter rages on, well into spring.
THE ‘extreme’ cold has seen Iguanas frozen solid in Florida, alligators in a state of cryogenic freeze, sharks washed up in Cape Cod “stranded due to cold shock”, the coldest Super Bowl on record, Niagara Falls frozen over, a thermometer in the world’s coldest village breaking as temperatures plunge to -62C, the lowest temperature ever recorded in Bangladesh, frozen crops creating a food crisis in Europe, even a mass die-off of sea creatures as UK ocean temps plunged 1-3 degrees centigrade, cold temperatures smashed across Saskatchewan’s central and south regions in the spring of April, and the list of non-heat ‘extremes’ goes on.
RECORD cold temperatures have dumped unprecedented amounts of the white fluffy stuff that was, by now, meant to be “a very rare and exciting event”, something that “Children just aren’t going to know what (snow) is”. Dr Viner’s “thing of the past” covered all 50 states in North America, with rare falls experienced in Rome, Monaco, the Sahara desert and the first snow in 50 years dusting Southern Morocco. And, it’s been a rough old winter for Gavin Schmidt’s NASA GISS Temp New York office – home of the “Hottest Year(s) Evah” sausage factory – with the city that never sleeps experiencing its “fifth consecutive season that at least 30 inches of snow has fallen” with CNN reporting “It’s official: NYC hasn’t seen snow like this in 130 years“!
DON’T LOOK THERE, LOOK HERE!
IN what appears to be another well-timed, and well-orchestrated plan to thaw out the inconvenient noise of the brutal NH winter still raging deep into Spring, the mainstream media, in concert with the climate crisis industry, has wheeled out an old favourite that always guarantees a juicy headline and an eco-emotional response – The “Death” of The Great Barrier Reef…
A new study, published in Nature by serial reef alarmist Prof Terry Hughes, Director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University, examines the link between the level of heat exposure from the 2015/16 super El Niño, “resulting in coral bleaching and ultimately coral death.“
A TASTE of this morning’s mainstream media reef hysteria following the Hughes et al release: Read the rest of this entry »
Posted: November 5, 2017 Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Alarmism uncovered, Climate models, Climatism, Consensus, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, NASA, Oceans, Sea Level Rise, Settled Science | Tags: Alarmism Exposed, Climate alarmism, Climate Change, climate models, El Nino, failed climate models, Failed CMIP5 Models, Global Warming Scam, nasa, Oceans, sea level rise, UN, UNEP
Experts tell us that New York City and London will be underwater in the next 50 years | Daily Mail
SEA LEVEL RISE alarmism is just one in a long line of propaganda metrics used by the climate crisis industry to promote the narrative that your CO2 emissions are causing unprecedented climate change.
OF course none of the carefully orchestrated fear-mongering is based on observed reality, rather, worst-case-scenario climate models that are designed to scare you and policy makers into belief.
THE veracity of global climate models were recently put under the microscope by a group of ‘warmist’ climate scientists who published a bombshell paper that admitted the estimates of global warming used for years to torture the world’s conscience and justify massive spending on non-carbon energy sources were, er, wrong.
IN February 2016, climate scientist Dr. John Christy presented testimony to U.S. Congress demonstrating that the UN IPCC’s CMIP5 climate models grossly exaggerate and over estimate the impact of atmospheric CO2 levels on global temperatures. Dr. Christy noted in his testimony that “models over-warm the tropical atmosphere by a factor of approximately three″.
AUSTRALIAN scientists have published a new paper in the journal Earth Systems and Environment that highlights the “loud divergence between sea level reality” and “the climate models [that] predict an accelerated sea-level rise driven by the anthropogenic CO2 emission“.
More via NoTricksZone :
THE key finding from the paper is that long-term observations from tide gauges reveal a “recent lack of any detectable acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise“. The modern rate of sea level rise acceleration – 0.002 mm/year² – is so negligible it falls well below the threshold of measurement accuracy.
The lack of a detectable global-scale sea level rise acceleration recorded in tide gauge measurements isn’t a novel finding. In recent years, dozens of other scientists have bravely come forward to challenge “consensus” modeling that implicates anthropogenic CO2 emissions as the preeminent cause of ice sheet melt and sea level rise.
Perhaps at some point “consensus”-based climate science will jettison its focus on models and projections of perilous future climate states directly caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions and instead embrace the observational evidence that may undermine the alarm.
Until then, we will likely need to continue learning about how many millimeters we humans raise sea levels for each kilometer we drive in our fossil-fuel-powered vehicles. Because that’s how “consensus” climate science works.
Reality vs. Theory: Scientists Affirm ‘Recent Lack Of Any Detectable Acceleration’ In Sea Level Rise | NoTricksZone
SERIOUS questions need to be asked as to how predictive models that do not observe reality can be used so un-objectively to torture the world’s conscience and justify massive spending on unreliable-energy sources, and fund a now vast industry of research grants, environment lobby firms and advisory businesses of all types.
OVERHEATED climate models also provide the basis for billions of dollars in trading climate credits, many thousands of well-paid government jobs in climate bureaucracies, and, of course, the trillion dollar green energy industry.
ALL this using *other-peoples’-hard-earned-money*.
MOST mainstream media outlets will not report something that dramatically deflates their narrative. So it goes without saying that when NASA confirmed that ocean levels have actually paused, even falling for the past few years, the media couldn’t be more than silent…
Via WUWT :
This is interesting. It appears that a “pause” has developed in global sea levels. For two years, since July 2015, there has been no sustained increase in global sea level, in fact, it appears to have actually fallen a bit. This graph, provided by NASA’s Global Climate Change website, tells the story:
A zoom of the area of interest, two years prior to the most recent data point.
The satellite derived sea level data is also available here: ftp://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/allData/merged_alt/L2/TP_J1_OSTM/global_mean_sea_level/GMSL_TPJAOS_V4_199209_201708.txt
NASA says on that website:
Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to global warming: the added water from melting ice sheets and glaciers and the expansion of sea water as it warms. The first graph tracks the change in sea level since 1993 as observed by satellites.
Hmmm, I think they left something out of that description.
The other source for sea level data, at the University of Colorado, also shows a pause, though they have not yet updated their data for 2017:
What I found most interesting on the UC sea level page was this graph, showing the correlation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global sea level. [Readers] may recall that in 2015, there was a massive spike of an El Niño event:
The correlation between ENSO and sea level seems strong.
Note this image from a NASA Visualization Video, which shows water piling up in the Western Pacific over the past 22 years. Wind pattern shifts are a signature of ENSO events, and they push water westward where it piles up.
Here is another projection of the same data, showing that water has been piling up in the Western Pacific:
I wonder what the rate of sea level rise would look like is we masked out El Nino events? I’m guessing it would be far, far, less than what is being claimed as “global”.
Sea-Level Rise Fraud Related :
Sea Level Rise Alarmism Related :
Mainstream Media Sea Level Rise Alarmism :
Posted: November 29, 2016 Filed under: Climate Alarmism, Climate Fraud, Climate science, Climatism, Data Tampering, Eco-Activists, Empirical Evidence, Environmentalists, Fact Check, Gavin Schmidt, Global Temperature, Government Grants/Funding, Govt Climate Agenda, Green Agenda, NASA, NOAA, Scientific Fraud, Uncategorized | Tags: Activist Science, Climate Change, climate fraud, Climate science, Data Tampering, Gavin Schmidt, GISS, Global Temperature, Global Warming, Hottest Year Ever, James Hansen, nasa, NASAgate, NOAAgate, Scientific Fraud
CARL DE SOUZA/AFP/Getty Images
Brietbart’s James Delingpole confirming what sceptics have been observing with disgust for years and what thankfully the world is now becoming increasingly clear about – that NASA, under the directorship of climate change activist Gavin Schmidt and before him James Hansen (pictured) arrested 4 times for climate activism, is scandalously tampering with one of the four major global temperature data sets – GISS.
This is the same data set used by much of the climate science cabal, agenda-driven politicians and the alarmist mainstream media to claim the “Hottest Year Ever” meme.
See: Understanding The “Hottest Year Evah” | Climatism
24 Nov 2015
A German professor has confirmed what skeptics from Britain to the US have long suspected: that NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies has largely invented “global warming” by tampering with the raw temperature data records.
Professor Dr. Friedrich Karl Ewert is a retired geologist and data computation expert. He has painstakingly examined and tabulated all NASA GISS’s temperature data series, taken from 1153 stations and going back to 1881. His conclusion: that if you look at the raw data, as opposed to NASA’s revisions, you’ll find that since 1940 the planet has been cooling, not warming.
According to Günter Ederer, the German journalist who has reported on Ewert’s findings:
From the publicly available data, Ewert made an unbelievable discovery: Between the years 2010 and 2012 the data measured since 1881 were altered so that they showed a significant warming, especially after 1950. […] A comparison of the data from 2010 with the data of 2012 shows that NASA-GISS had altered its own datasets so that especially after WWII a clear warming appears – although it never existed.
Apart from Australia, the planet has in fact been on a cooling trend:
Using the NASA data from 2010 the surface temperature globally from 1940 until today has fallen by 1.110°C, and since 2000 it has fallen 0.4223°C […]. The cooling has hit every continent except for Australia, which warmed by 0.6339°C since 2000. The figures for Europe: From 1940 to 2010, using the data from 2010, there was a cooling of 0.5465°C and a cooling of 0.3739°C since 2000.
But the activist scientists at NASA GISS – initially led by James Hansen (pictured above), later by Gavin Schmidt – wanted the records they are in charge of maintaining to show warming not cooling, so they began systematically adjusting the data for various spurious reasons using ten different methods.
The most commonly used ones were:
• Reducing the annual mean in the early phase.
• Reducing the high values in the first warming phase.
• Increasing individual values during the second warming phase.
• Suppression of the second cooling phase starting in 1995.
• Shortening the early decades of the datasets.
• With the long-term datasets, even the first century was shortened.
Ewert’s findings echo that of US meteorologists Joseph D’Aleo and Anthony Watts who examined 6,000 NASA weather stations and found a host of irregularities both with the way they were sited and how the raw data had been adjusted to reflect such influences as the Urban Heat Island effect.
Britain’s Paul Homewood is also on NASA GISS’s case. Here he shows the shocking extent of the adjustments they have made to a temperature record in Brazil which has been altered so that a cooling trend becomes a warming trend.
Unadjusted temperature record: shows cooling trend.
Adjusted temperature record: shows warming trend.
For still more evidence of NASA’s adjustments, check out Alterations to Climate Data
at Tony Heller’s Real Climate Science.
Truly, these people have no shame.
Climate Fraud Resource File :
See also :
Posted: December 5, 2015 Filed under: COP21, Fact Check, Failed Climate Models, Global Temperature, Global Warming Stasis, NASA, NOAA, Satellite Data, UAH | Tags: "The Pause", COP21, GISS, Global Warming "Pause", Global Warming Hiatus, nasa, RSS Satellite Data, Satellite Data, UAH satellite data
With the ever increasing divergence of surface temperatures from satellite ones, and the subsequent divergence of overheated climate models to observed reality, it is worth a background on atmospheric measurement systems from former NASA climate scientist Dr. Roy Spencer, Ph.D. – climatologist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville who he developed the first temperature record based on satellites…
Roy Spencer On Satellite (UAH / RSS) v Surface Temperature Data (NASA GISS) :
I claim 2014 won’t be the warmest global-average year on record.
..if for no other reason than this: thermometers cannot measure global averages — only satellites can. The satellite instruments measure nearly every cubic kilometer – hell, every cubic inch — of the lower atmosphere on a daily basis. You can travel hundreds if not thousands of kilometers without finding a thermometer nearby.
(And even if 2014 or 2015 turns out to be the warmest, this is not a cause for concern…more about that later).
The two main research groups tracking global lower-tropospheric temperatures (our UAH group, and the Remote Sensing Systems [RSS] group) show 2014 lagging significantly behind 2010 and especially 1998:
With only 3 months left in the year, there is no realistic way for 2014 to set a record in the satellite data.
Granted, the satellites are less good at sampling right near the poles, but compared to the very sparse data from the thermometer network we are in fat city coverage-wise with the satellite data.
In my opinion, though, a bigger problem than the spotty sampling of the thermometer data is the endless adjustment game applied to the thermometer data. The thermometer network is made up of a patchwork of non-research quality instruments that were never made to monitor long-term temperature changes to tenths or hundredths of a degree, and the huge data voids around the world are either ignored or in-filled with fictitious data.
Furthermore, land-based thermometers are placed where people live, and people build stuff, often replacing cooling vegetation with manmade structures that cause an artificial warming (urban heat island, UHI) effect right around the thermometer. The data adjustment processes in place cannot reliably remove the UHI effect because it can’t be distinguished from real global warming.
Satellite microwave radiometers, however, are equipped with laboratory-calibrated platinum resistance thermometers, which have demonstrated stability to thousandths of a degree over many years, and which are used to continuously calibrate the satellite instruments once every 8 seconds. The satellite measurements still have residual calibration effects that must be adjusted for, but these are usually on the order of hundredths of a degree, rather than tenths or whole degrees in the case of ground-based thermometers.
And, it is of continuing amusement to us that the global warming skeptic community now tracks the RSS satellite product rather than our UAH dataset. RSS was originally supposed to provide a quality check on our product (a worthy and necessary goal) and was heralded by the global warming alarmist community. But since RSS shows a slight cooling trend since the 1998 super El Nino, and the UAH dataset doesn’t, it is more referenced by the skeptic community now. Too funny.
In the meantime, the alarmists will continue to use the outdated, spotty, and heavily-massaged thermometer data to support their case. For a group that trumpets the high-tech climate modeling effort used to guide energy policy — models which have failed to forecast (or even hindcast!) the lack of warming in recent years — they sure do cling bitterly to whatever will support their case.
As British economist Ronald Coase once said, “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.”
So, why are the surface thermometer data used to the exclusion of our best technology — satellites — when tracking global temperatures? Because they better support the narrative of a dangerously warming planet.
Except, as the public can tell, the changes in global temperature aren’t even on their radar screen (sorry for the metaphor).
via Roy Spencer On Satellite v Surface Temperature Data | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
2015 “Hottest Year Ever” Update :
2015 will be the 3rd Warmest Year in the Satellite Record « Roy Spencer, PhD
Watts Up With That?
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
The Christmas pantomime here in Paris is well int0 its two-week run. The Druids who had hoped that their gibbering incantations might begin to shorten the Pause during the United Necromancers’ pre-solstice prayer-group have been disappointed. Gaia has not heeded them. She continues to show no sign of the “fever” long promised by the Prophet Gore. The robust Pause continues to resist the gathering el Niño. It remains at last month’s record-setting 18 years 9 months (Fig. 1).
Figure 1. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset continues to show no global warming for 18 years 9 months since February 1997, though one-third of all anthropogenic forcings have occurred during the period of the Pause.
The modelers ought to be surprised by the persistence of the Pause. NOAA, with rare honesty, said in its 2008 State of…
View original post 4,467 more words
Posted: November 16, 2013 Filed under: AGW, Alarmism Debunked, Carbon Dioxide, Climate, Climate science, Climatism, Dud predictions, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Global Cooling, Global Warming Stasis, Oceans, Sea Level Rise | Tags: CARBON DIOXIDE, Carbon Emissions, Climate Change, sea level rise
“No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world.”
– Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment
“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.“
– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation
Jo Nova analyses a new paper that shows the rate of global sea-level rise has slowed since 2004.
via JoanneNova.com.au :
A new paper shows that sea levels rose faster in the ten years from 1993-2003 than they have since. Sea levels are still rising but the rate has slowed since 2004. This does not suggest that the missing energy from the atmosphere has snuck into the ocean, but rather that the oceans and the atmosphere were both warming faster in the 1990′s, then as coal power ramped up in China and billions of tons of CO2 was released, both the atmosphere and the ocean did not gain more energy per year, but less. That message again — something else appears to be the main driver the climate, not CO2.
Their highlights include:
- The global mean sea level started decelerated rising since 2004.
- Deceleration is due to slowdown of ocean thermal expansion during last decade.
- Recent ENSO events introduce large uncertainty of long-term trend estimation.
This paper discusses and graphs total sea level rise, steric sea level rise and the global mean ocean mass. The Steric Sea Level is the part of the rise due to warming and salinity changes, so it best represents changes in ocean heat content. The total rise also includes water coming or going due to changes in glaciers, run-off, ice, evaporation and rain. GRACE data measures only the changes in gravity, which is caused by changes in water mass. Jason/Topex altimeter satellites measure the total sea-level changes and the steric component is calculated from the altimitry and GRACE data. I chose only the steric sea level graphs here, but the total sea level graphs and ocean mass graphs are also available in the paper.
All this comes with the caveat that inasmuch as most experts accept that seas were rising by 3mm a year in the 1990′s, the raw satellite data showed next to nothing until it was adjusted. Hence the rate changes discussed in this paper could be an artefact of those adjustments. Sea levels might not have slowed their rate of rise, it may be that it was not rising very quickly in the first place, and is still not rising very fast. Either way, it doesn’t support the theory that pumping out CO2 makes much difference.
That said, the change is most obvious in Figure 1b.
The global mean steric
sea level (GMSL) with the ending date changing from 1 to 24 months earlier relative to December 2012 (bottom panel, thin lines end with the color from red to yellow). The IMFs of each time series, corresponding to the high-frequency noise, the annual
cycle, the interannual variability, and the trend function (see text), are given as the colored lines in the panels from top to bottom, respectively. The ensemble mean of the IMFs on the different time scales during 1993-2010 are given as the thick black solid line in each panel. The colored bar in the third panel is the normalized Nino 3.4 index with arbitrary amplitude. The statistical confidence interval of the trend function is given by gray shadow in the bottom panel. The data is in units of cm.
The details of the rate of change:
The intrinsic trend of the [Global Mean Sea Level] GMSL derived by EMD exhibits an accelerated rising period during 1993-2003 with mean rate 3.2±0.4 mm/yr and a decelerated rising period since 2004 with the rate about 1.8±0.9 mm/yr in 2012.
Here’s the clincher… the cause of the change in the rate was mainly due to the shift in the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation):
Comparison between the [Global Mean Sea Level], the global mean steric sea level, and the global mean ocean mass indicates that the decreasing of the rising trend is mainly due to the stalled ocean heat content which started in the early 2000s, when the PDO switched from the warm polarity to cold polarity…
The changes are apparent in figure 5b below — this is the average steric sea level rises before and after 2003. A large section of the central Pacific seems to have shifted from gaining heat before 2003 to losing heat in the last decade.
Figure 5b. Mean trend of the steric sea level rise during (top) Period 1 (1993-2003) and (bottom)
Period 2 (2004-2012).
Over the last 20 years the oceans have been gently expanding sometimes at faster rates and sometimes slower. Note this graph is the rate of the change in the rate… not a simple graph of the rate itself.
Figure 2. The instantaneous rate of interannual variability of (b) the global mean
steric sea level, i.e. the first-order time derivative of third IMFs shown in Figure 1.
“The regression of the global sea level and the global steric sea level on their corresponding third IMFs (Figure 3) shows very similar ENSO-like patterns. Notice that the sea level can adjust to changes in the ocean mass within a matter of days through barotropic waves travelling at speeds of order 200 m/s [Lorbacher et al. 2012], the spatial pattern of the ocean mass change on the interannual time scale is nearly homogeneous in the world ocean. This indicates that the spatial pattern of the internanual variability of the GMSL should be attributed to the steric sea level change, while the amplitude is dominated by the change of the ocean mass.”
H/t To The HockeySchtick
Chen, Feng, Huang (2013) Global Sea Level Trend during 1993-2012, Global and Planetary Change online 13 November 2013. [abstract]
Climatism comment :
Despite 35% of all human CO² emissions, since 1751, emitted in the last 15 years, three key climate indicators continue to defy the “Global Warming” hypothesis:
- The rate of global sea-level rise has slowed since 2004
- There has been no atmospheric temperature rise over the last 15 years
- Ocean temperatures remain flat since 2004
It appears something else is the main driver of climate, not CO².
Sea Level Related :
Ocean Related :
Climate Related :
Posted: December 11, 2018 Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Alarmism uncovered, Alarmist media, Alarmist Predictions, Australia, Climatism, Coral Bleaching, Government Grants/Funding, Great Barrier Reef | Tags: Alarmism Exposed, Climate Change, Climate Change Alarmism, COP24, Coral Bleaching, Global Warming, Global Warming Alarmism, Government grants, Govt Grants/Funding, Great Barrier Reef, Professor Peter Ridd, Reef Recovery, Science and Environment, Taxpayer waste, Terry Hughes
GREAT Barrier Reef Recovery – Climatism
“WE need to get some broad based support,
to capture the public’s imagination…
So we have to offer up scary scenarios,
make simplified, dramatic statements
and make little mention of any doubts…
Each of us has to decide what the right balance
is between being effective and being honest.“
– Prof. Stephen Schneider,
Stanford Professor of Climatology,
lead author of many IPCC reports
REMEMBER when climate ‘scientists’ said “Corals on Great Barrier Reef will never be the same after back-to-back heat waves“ …
- Corals on Great Barrier Reef will never be the same after back-to-back heat waves, scientists say | LA Times
REMEMBER when climate ‘scientists’ said “Global warming has changed the Great Barrier Reef ‘forever’ …
REMEMBER when climate ‘scientists’ said “Great Barrier Reef is damaged beyond repair and can no longer be saved“ …
Great Barrier Reef is damaged beyond repair and can no longer be saved | The Telegraph
GREAT BARRIER REEF RECOVERS (Again)
The Great Barrier Reef fared better during an oceanic heat wave last year than during sizzling weather a year earlier that caused hundreds of miles of corals to bleach, according to a study published Monday that suggests the massive structure may be growing more tolerant to climate change.
The report in the journal Nature Climate Change analyzed how corals along the Great Barrier fared in back-to-back mass bleaching events. The reef ― a UNESCO World Heritage Site and the largest living structure on the planet ― was cooked by overheated seawater in 2016 and again in 2017, with images of sickly white coral horrifying people around the globe.
During the first event, which scientists likened to an underwater apocalypse, almost 30 percent of the reef died.
But the second event last year, which saw seas even hotter than 2016 in many places, didn’t harm the reef as badly as scientists expected. They speculated that the structure may be going through a forced evolution that has helped toughen it, at least in part.
“The good news is the Barrier Reef glass is still half-full,” said Terry Hughes, a lead author of the study and the director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies. “Whether we’ll still have reefs in 50 years time … there’s a glimmer of hope that we will.”
‘Glimmer Of Hope’ For Great Barrier Reef As Study Shows Tolerance To Climate Change | HuffPost UK
AMAZING how quickly $444 MILLION of taxpayers hard-earned money can ‘fix’ the reef. Or, do vast amounts of free cash help dial down the hysteria from the Climate Crisis Industry and CO2-obsessed reef ‘scientists’?
REEFS RECOVER (With or without $444 MILLION!)
DRAMATIC recovery of a remote reef off WA, after 1998 El Niño coral bleaching event:
From The Abstract :
Coral reef recovery from major disturbance is hypothesized to depend on the arrival of propagules from nearby undisturbed reefs. Therefore, reefs isolated by distance or current patterns are thought to be highly vulnerable to catastrophic disturbance. We found that on an isolated reef system in north Western Australia, coral cover increased from 9% to 44% within 12 years of a coral bleaching event, despite a 94% reduction in larval supply for 6 years after the bleaching. The initial increase in coral cover was the result of high rates of growth and survival of remnant colonies, followed by a rapid increase in juvenile recruitment as colonies matured. We show that isolated reefs can recover from major disturbance, and that the benefits of their isolation from chronic anthropogenic pressures can outweigh the costs of limited connectivity.
Recovery of an Isolated Coral Reef System Following Severe Disturbance
CORAL BLEACHING IS A NATURAL PHENOMENON & REEFS HAVE SURVIVED & THRIVED IN FAR HIGHER TEMPS & CO2 LEVELS IN THE PAST
CORALS evolved during the Cambrian era when atmospheric CO2 levels were at 6,000-7,000 ppm, around 4,000 percent or 20 times higher than today’s “CO2-starved” environment of 400 ppm, with atmospheric and ocean temps temps far higher than today.
THE world was hotter during the Holocene optimum, yet somehow the Great Barrier Reef survived.
CORAL reefs have survived millions of years of dramatic and sudden climate change, yet climate alarmists want us to believe that a few hundred ppm more of essential trace gas CO2 “has changed the Great Barrier Reef ‘forever,’ (Wapo)” or that even a “Great Barrier Reef recovery [is] unlikely after ‘catastrophic die-off’“?!
BLEACHING is a naturally occurring phenomenon essential to the health and regrowth of coral reefs.
THE “Great Barrier Reef” is only “Great” because it has died off at least 7 known times over the millennia.
DR TERRY HUGHES & THE POWER OF GRANT MONEY
Terry Hughes, is the director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University, the same University who recently censured physicist at James Cook University Professor Peter Ridd who has dared to question scientific findings that purport to show the Great Barrier Reef is in trouble.
IN June 2017, Ridd made the headlines after suspecting something was wrong with photographs being used to highlight the apparent rapid decline of the Great Barrier Reef.
AFTER attempting to blow the whistle on the bogus pictures, Ridd was censured by James Cook University and threatened with the sack…
ABC FAKE, FAKE NEWS…
Read the rest of this entry »
Posted: June 30, 2018 Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Alarmism uncovered, Alarmist media, Climate Alarmism, Climate Change, Climatism, Drought, Empirical Evidence, Extreme Weather, Fact Check, Fake News, Propaganda | Tags: Child Brides, Climate Change, Climate Change Propaganda, Climatism, Cows, drought, East Africa, East Africa Drought, Fake News, Global Warming, Goebbels, Mainstream media, nature, propaganda, Reuters, science, Science and Environment, The Conversation, War
“IT would not be impossible to prove with sufficient repetition and a psychological understanding of the people concerned that a square is in fact a circle. They are mere words, and words can be molded until they clothe ideas and disguise.”
― Joseph Goebbels
PROPAGANDA techniques undertaken by German politician and Reich Minister of Propaganda in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1945, Joseph Goebbels, are indistinguishable from those used by the climate crisis industry in order to push their radical man-made
global warming climate change agenda.
DAY-in-day-out, headlines are carefully crafted to deceive the audience by, in the case of the Reuters article featured in this post, employing a deeply emotional topic – trading girls for cows – and linking this abhorrent, yet genuine occurrence with two of the most repeated and feared news-phrases of our time – “climate change” and/or “global warming”. The latter “global warming” used less and less as the inconvenient ~20 year global warming “pause” continues to defy warming projections with stubborn arrogance.
ONCE the “square is in fact a circle,” no science or empirical data is needed to prove the assumption. As Reuters well understands…
More parents trade girls for cows as war and climate change hit east Africa
Parents can now receive up to 300 cows in bride price, up from about 30 cows during peacetime
KUALA LUMPUR, June 27 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – Child marriage is increasing in parts of war-torn South Sudan and drought-hit Kenya as parents swap their daughters for cows and goats to survive, campaigners said on Wednesday.
Africa accounts for nine out of the 10 countries with the highest rates of underage unions globally, advocacy group Girls Not Brides said, with girls marrying due to tradition, family ties, the stigma of pregnancy out of wedlock and poverty.
But long-running wars and climate change are now leading factors too, activists said, highlighting a rise in marriage among girls under the age of 18 in South Sudan to 52 percent from 40 percent in 2010, according to United Nations data.
“The conflicts just worsened the situation,” Dorcas Acen, a gender protection expert at the charity CARE International in South Sudan told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.
“Majority of the parents wish to give up their girls and marry them off because of the economic hardship. They are looking at how to reduce the number of mouths they need to feed.”
Despite a global decline in child marriages, there are still some 12 million underage girls married every year, often with devastating consequences for their health and education.
South Sudan has been gripped by civil war since 2013, pitting forces loyal to President Salva Kiir against rebels linked to former vice president Riek Machar, and millions are going hungry amind rampant inflation and declining oil output.
As the conflict drags on and hard currency loses it lustre, parents can now receive up to 300 cows in bride price, or dowry, when their a young girl weds, up from about 30 cows during peacetime, Acen said.
“When there is a girl within the family ready to get married, people will come and present the number of cows,” she said on the sidelines of a global conference on child marriage in the Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur.
“Basically it’s just bidding – whoever bids with the highest number of cows will take the girl,” she said.
Across the border in Kenya, many semi-nomadic Maasai and Samburu herders exchanged their daughters for livestock during a severe drought last year that killed large numbers of animals, said Millicent Ondigo of Amref Health Africa.
“Since the number of goats has decreased, parents rather sell their daughter for four (or) five goats for marriage,” said Ondigo, a project officer for the Nairobi-based health charity.
Families often marry girls off at earlier ages during drought as this earns them dowry and increases the girls’ chances of being fed by wealthier husbands, experts say.
Ondigo is working to convince parents that sending girls to school would bring them longer-term economic benefits.
“(We told parents) when she is done with schooling, she will get a job and she will be able to buy you more than those four goats,” she told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.
(Reporting by Beh Lih Yi @behlihyi, Editing by Katy Migiro. Please credit the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the charitable arm of Thomson Reuters, that covers humanitarian news, women’s rights, trafficking, property rights, climate change and resilience. Visit http://news.trust.org)
AS you can clearly read for yourself, there is ZERO data or empirical evidence supporting the claim that “climate change” is to blame for parents trading girls for cows.
SO, let’s do some basic “science” for Reuter’s to test the veracity of their wild claim…
EAST AFRICAN DROUGHTS
Via The Conversation…
Droughts in East Africa: some headway in unpacking what’s causing them
There have been successive large scale droughts in East Africa. Shutterstock
Drought is a common phenomenon in East Africa and has occurred throughout known history. Now, with climate change top of the mind, whenever there’s a drought some are quick to blame climate change as the “cause”.
It’s a fair scientific question to ask: Are these droughts (in part) the result of changes in the earth’s climate brought about by human activities? Or are they solely the result of natural processes?
With successive large scale droughts in East Africa in 2010/11, 2014, 2015and the ongoing drought, it’s easy to assume climate change caused by human behaviour does indeed play a role.
But droughts are complex extreme events that result from a combination of drivers. In the atmosphere these include; regular climate variability – including day-to-day weather – but also larger seasonal patterns related to cycles, such as El Nino and La Nina. It could be human-induced drivers – like greenhouse gas emissions, or events like volcanic eruptions.
Beyond the atmosphere itself, the condition of water reserves, soil, and vegetation are critical. This could of course be coupled to human activity like irrigation or the number of livestock.
Finally, whether a drought becomes a problem doesn’t just depend on the meteorological conditions but on human decisions on the ground. For example, the effects of a lack of rainfall strongly depends on human vulnerability: how dependent on the climate are people’s livelihoods, do they have assets or financial reserves, and access to markets?
Combining our multiple methods, we found that human induced climate change is currently not a game changer.
This demonstrates that science often doesn’t provide a simple statement, such as “climate change is to blame”. In the case of the drought in Somalia we have no evidence that climate change made this event more likely.
Honest climate analysis can inform public awareness, policy and practice – especially when events are happening and the appetite to address the problem is highest. Let’s use that window for well-informed debate about addressing rising risk, rather than playing a blame game.
“INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE”
THE Conversation with more…
Harvepino : shutterstock
A severe drought threatens millions of people in East Africa. Crop harvests are well below normal and the price of food has doubled across much of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and nearby countries.
The last major drought in the region, in 2011, caused hundreds of thousands of deaths. They are becoming more frequent and more intense – and each has a disastrous impact on the economies of nations and livelihoods of people.
So what is causing these droughts? And why are they becoming more common?
At least part of the explanation lies with a climate phenomenon known as the “Indian Ocean Dipole”. The dipole, often called the Indian Niño due to its similarity with El Niño, is not as well known as its Pacific equivalent. Indeed, it was only properly identified by a team of Japanese researchersin the late 1990s.
Sea surface temperature anomalies during Indian Ocean Dipoles. Arrows indicate wind direction, white patches are areas with more clouds and rain. Marchant et al 2007, Author provided
The dipole refers to the sea’s surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean off Indonesia, cycling between cold and warm compared to the western part of the ocean. Some years the temperature difference is far greater than others.
We are currently coming out of a particularly strong dipole. At its peak, in summer 2016, the sea off the Indonesian coast was 1℃ or so warmer than waters a few thousand kilometres to the west.
Temperature differences between east and west Indian Ocean. Author provided
The “Indian Niño” isn’t going anywhere, along with the regular and severe droughts it causes. People in East Africa must prepare.
Dipole: the ‘Indian Niño’ that has brought devastating drought to East Africa | The Conversation
LITTLE change in global drought over the past 60 years…
BASIC research found ‘scientific’ evidence from two sources, both with quite heavy “climate change” credentials themselves – The Conversation and Nature journal, that clearly dispel the brazen propaganda and misinformation Reuters sees fit to print.
THIS isn’t ‘journalism’, it’s
global warming climate change advocacy and does nothing for the plight of ‘young girls being sold for cows’ or helping East Africa prepare and adapt to droughts that are a direct result of the brutality of Mother Nature.
See also :
Mainstream Media Climate Propaganda related :
Climate Related :
Climate Science Related :
Climatism Hot Links :
Origins Of The Global Warming Scam :
(Climate sceptics still waitin’ for that “big oil” cheque to arrive in the mail!)
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