Advertisements

HOTTEST YEAR EVAHH : Fourth-Warmest Year on Record? The Devil’s in the Details

HOTTEST YEAR EVAHH - CLIMATISM.png


“A man does not sin by commission only, but often by omission.”
Marcus Aurelius

“Deception by an omission of the truth is as bad as a lie.”
― Jennifer Chiaverini

*

CLAIMS of the “hottest year ever” tell us more about climate change marketing and PR than they do, actual science.

IN our schizophrenic, 24 hour news cycle and the era of internet clickbait, it serves the Climate Crisis Industry and those invested in man-made climate alarmism to produce headlines of “the hottest year ever” in order to push their political and ideological agenda…

THE Guardian’s Dana Nuttercelli is no stranger to pushing the ideological wheelbarrow of “hottest year evahh” hysteria…

*

THANK god for old-school meteorologists like Weatherbell’s Joe Bastardi, who cut through the cheap, lazy, clickbait alarmism to provide a scientific understanding of what really makes up “hottest year ever” claims such that we can use this knowledge to better predict weather and climate, rather than simply feeding the global warming hysteria beast for political, moral and financial gains.

BIG Joe dissects the “hottest year” meme in a great piece out of the The Patriot Post that shows the devil really is in the detail …

*

Fourth-Warmest Year on Record? The Devil’s in the Details

Joe Bastardi · Jul. 30, 2018

I continue to examine the idea that relatively minute increases in water vapor brought on by cyclically warmed oceans are the reason for the earth’s warming. But the way warming is portrayed must be looked at closely. It is very real and adds to forecast problems, but as far as the hysteria you see whipped up in relation to mankind’s self-destructing, it’s just that to me — hysteria.

Let’s assume 2018 is the fourth-warmest on record. Most people live between 70°N and 70°S.

NCEP1

NCEP Temp Anomaly

There are warm areas and cool areas, but it is not that terribly hot. In fact, one continent, South America, looks cooler than average, and while northern Africa is warmer than normal, much of southern Africa is not.

Now let’s look at the whole globe. Remember, this is against the 1981-2010 mean, which is the golden age of temperature measurements since we have satellite data in combination with model-based initialization. The argument that model initialization is not accurate yet we are supposed to trust modeling to forecast the climate makes no sense. The model certainly can see better what is happening now than it can the future. The further out, the tougher it is. In any case, a look at the entire planet reveals that the Arctic warming is adding a major component.

NCEP July Temp Anomaly

NCEP July Temp Anomaly

That Antarctic warming is also primarily during its cold season, which we are in now. The globe for the year is .276°C above normal, which based on NCEP data puts 2018 in the top 10 warmest years and likely in the top five. So there’s no argument. But to further illustrate the point, let’s look at when the bulk of that warming is occurring — in the Arctic winter!

Take January:

NCEP January Temp Anomaly

NCEP January Temp Anomaly

The Antarctic is a bit above normal, but the Arctic is on fire (or looks that way). Why should it be that warm? Well, look at the relationship between tiny increases in water vapor and temperature as shown by saturation mixing ratios. Check out the ratio when it’s very cold (-40°F to -30°F):

saturation mixing ratios

saturation mixing ratios

The increase of only .09 grams/kg has a 10-degree increase associated with it.

Now let’s look at higher readings, between 45°F and 65°F.

saturation mixing ratios2

It takes almost 3 grams of increase in water vapor in the 10-degree increment between 45°F and 55°F, and over 4 grams between 55°F and 65°F. Here’s the ratio when it’s really hot — between 85°F and 95°F:

saturation mixing ratios3

Keep in mind, we have no such table for temperature and CO2, because the relationship is so tiny it is not quantified. We do, however, have tables for temperature and water vapor, as you can see.

These tables show the amount of water air can hold is 100 times more where it’s very warm than where it’s very cold, So minute increases in water vapor have a pronounced influence on temperatures where it’s much colder. Now look at July, which is about the tenth-warmest July on record in the satellite era, which is really the period we should be measuring temperatures given the known “adjustments” that have been going on before that.

NCEP July Temp Anomaly

NCEP July Temp Anomaly

Low and behold, the Arctic is cold. What is interesting is that up until about two weeks ago so was Antarctica, though it has since warmed and helped skew the July reading.

NCEP July Temp Anomaly2

NCEP July Temp Anomaly2

But the Arctic is cool, though not enough to balance the Antarctic. We see the extreme warmth over northwest Europe, but you also see areas where it is very cool. Anyone talking about those cold areas, which are countering the warm? South America is having one of its coldest winters on record!

This is a forecast problem and it’s one we must deal with. But it can be explained by the warming of the oceans, which, given their immense heat capacity, are the driver, not the driven. There is plenty of well-known theory as far as solar and oceans guiding the planet’s long-term climate. But we need to understand that the warming overall is skewed and in areas where people do not live.

When someone says it’s the fourth-warmest year on record, they may be right. But is it a sign of an impending global disaster or a sign that relatively minute increases in water vapor brought on by warmer oceans — the great planetary thermostat —are skewing temperatures? By the way, warming poles during the winter and cooling during the summer would argue fro less global zonal potential energy and less extreme weather. On any given day, while most of the planet is enjoying weather well within what is expected, there are going to be places where the weather is going wild. Is it a sign of a planetary emergency? You be the judge.

Rather than running to hysteria here, let’s look at what nature has always done. After all, given her power, chances are that is where the answer lies. To pursue that, one must be aware of some of the counterarguments. Using those counterarguments has allowed Weatherbell.com to forecast major events like the wildfires you are hearing about now or the heat well in advance. Items in the news now were in our forecast well beforehand.

People who follow us know we were listing the reasons we thought we would have to watch for that. We also have the hurricane season and, moving down the road, the winter, which I believe starts warm and then becomes cold and stormy. All of these are based on nature and lining up the past as much as any other theory about the future being controlled by the actions of humans.


Joe Bastardi, a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting, is a contributor to The Patriot Post on environmental issues. He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others.”

Joe Bastardi: Fourth-Warmest Year on Record? The Devil’s in the Details — The Patriot Post

***

Climatism comment…

ARCTIC 2018 TEMPS EXTRAPOLATED :

How regional temperature spikes can create an elevated ‘global temperature’ average…

THE meteorological year of 2018 began with the hyped “Arctic Heatwave” hysteria…

DMI Arctic Temps showed an unusual heat spike from Jan-Feb 2018…

THE usual suspects used the outlier to push their global warming climate change political agenda…

GEORGE’S wish was granted and the global warming theory-obsessed mainstream media went on an “Arctic Heatwave” feeding frenzy…

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

ALTHOUGH unusual, the Arctic “heatwave” experienced at the beginning of the year was not unprecedented.

WE experienced similar conditions in 1976, of which the mainstream media ‘conveniently’ failed to tell you…

*

2018 Arctic temps cooled back to the median and have been below average nearly every day for the past ~90 days…

DON’T expect The Guardian or George Monbiot’s twitter feed to report on this inconvenient data.

BELOW average temps simply don’t sell their climate scam. Only the “hot” ones do.

A rather telling and dishonest approach to climate and weather reporting, yet a hallmark of the climate scam. More commonly referred to as “bias by omission” – the worst kind of propaganda…

THE results of all that below-average cold Arctic air…

•••

“Hottest Year Evah” Meme related :

Related :

TEMPERATURE Related :

ORIGINS Of The Global Warming Scam :

•••

PLEASE Tip The Climatism Jar To HELP Keep The Good Fight Alive!

(Climate sceptics/rationalists still waitin’ for that “big oil” cheque to arrive in the mail!)

Help us to hit back against the bombardment of climate lies costing our communities, economies and livelihoods far, far too much.

Thanks to all those who have donated and continue on a monthly cycle! Your support and faith in Climatism is highly motivating and greatly appreciated!

Citizen journalists don’t rely on mastheads, rather private donations. Please give generously!

Click link for more info…TQ! Jamie.

Donate with PayPal

•••

 

 

Advertisements


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.