TOP 10 Climate Change Alarmist Myths Unearthed : #2 SEA LEVEL RISEPosted: May 30, 2018
“CLIMATE alarmism is a gigantic fraud: it only survives by suppressing dissent and by spending tens of billions of dollars of public money every year on pseudo-scientific propaganda.” – Leo Goldstein
CLIMATISM TOP 10 ALARMIST MYTHS – Intro
EXCESSIVE or exaggerated alarm about a real or imagined threat is fundamental in driving the human CO2-induced
global warming climate change narrative.
THE most popular climatic and weather-related events, as marketed by the Climate Crisis Industry, fall well within the bounds of natural variability. So, in order for such events to make the headlines, attract taxpayer funding for ‘research’, and advance the misanthropic, man-made climate change agenda, they must be accompanied by inflated language, an urgent tone, imagery of doom, and in many cases, fraudulent data.
IN this series we take an objective/sceptical look at ten of the more popular metrics used by warming alarmists to push the CAGW (catastrophic anthropogenic global warming) narrative, testing the veracity of the all-too-often wild and alarmist claims associated with each…
#2. SEA LEVEL RISE
“THE Seas Are Rising”! You’ve read it, seen it and heard about it just about everywhere in conjunction with the climate change debate. However, the very statement “rising sea levels” is deceptive from the start.
SEA-levels both rise and fall depending on where you are on the planet. Absolute sea-level varies from negative to positive to stable depending on a range of regional factors including: local vertical land motion, land use, salinity, regional ocean circulations, ocean heat content and tidal variations…
Mean Sea Level Trend
040-081 Narvik, Norway
Mean Sea Level Trend
050-141 Stockholm, Sweden
Mean Sea Level Trend
Relative Sea Level Trend
The Battery, New York
Relative Sea Level Trend
Le Havre, France
REMEMBER the “sinking” Pacific Island nations…
THE climate-theory-obsessed mainstream media has gleefully pawned the emotional link between climate change and ‘sinking’ tropical islands to push their man-made global warming agenda…
“The tiny pacific island nation of Tuvalu looks set to become a victim of global warming, with the entire country predicted to be washed away in 50 years.” (BBC 2002)
TUVALU’s plight even formed part of the basis for arguably the most hysterical fake news claim in the history of climate alarmism: the UN’s prediction that by the end of 2010, climate change would have created “50 million environmental refugees”!
CLIMATISM, along with the climate
sceptic “denier” community have been citing actual scientific data and empirical observations that have consistently contradicted the hysterical claims made by the mainstream media of “drowning island nations” for years…
Relative Sea Level Trend
Funafati B, Tuvalu
NZ research shows Island atolls are growing (“shape-shifting”) not shrinking:
“Results show that 86% of islands remained stable (43%) or increased in area (43%) over the timeframe of analysis…” (Webb et al.)
MORE on “growing” island atolls >> CLIMATE “Deniers” Were Right – Island Nation Growing, Not ‘Sinking’ With Sea Level Rise! | Climatism
NO overall sea-level rise, at all, in Sydney Harbour since 1910…
Relative Sea Level Trend
680-140 Sydney, Fort Denison 1 & 2, Australia
MORE Sydney Harbour…
Relative Sea Level Trend
680-151 Camp Cove, Australia
NOT much happening in San Francisco Bay either…
Relative Sea Level Trend
9414750 Alameda, California
NOAA website has an excellent tool for isolating local relative sea-level (RSL) trends based on tide gauge measurements with respect to a local fixed reference on land:
The sea level trends measured by tide gauges that are presented here are local relative sea level (RSL) trends as opposed to the global sea level trend. Tide gauge measurements are made with respect to a local fixed reference on land. RSL is a combination of the sea level rise and the local vertical land motion. The global sea level trend has been recorded by satellite altimeters since 1992 and the latest global trend can be obtained from NOAA’s Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry, with maps of the regional variation in the trend. The University of Colorado’s Sea Level Research Group compares global sea level rates calculated by different research organizations and discusses some of the issues involved.
WHAT Exactly is Relative Sea-Level (rise or fall)?
TIDE stations measure Local (Relative) Sea Level, which refers to the height of the water as measured along the coast relative to a specific point on land. There are three possible combinations of relative sea level rise under current geological conditions:
1. ABSOLUTE SEA-LEVEL RISE
This image shows Absolute Sea Level rising and its effect on Relative Sea Level at this Tide Gauge. As time goes by, the surface of the sea rises while the land remains motionless. This results in Relative Sea Level rise.
2. VERTICAL LAND MOVEMENT
This image shows Relative Sea Level rising but it is the land moving down, towards the center of the Earth, which is causing the sea surface to rise in relation to the land. Downward Vertical Land Movement causes Relative Sea Level rise. Downward VLM is most often caused by movement of the Earth’s crust, compaction of the soil (which is often created by filling along the water’s edge for docks and piers) and in some cases, water and petroleum extraction.
3. FALLING RELATIVE SEA-LEVEL (Glacial / Isostatic Rebound)
There is one more case found in the United States. In many places in Alaska, the land is moving up (glacial rebound) at a greater rate than the sea surface is moving up (at its little 1.7 mm/yr.) This causes the Relative Sea Level to be falling, though in reality it is the land rising faster than the surface of the sea is rising, thus the sea surface falls when measured against the shoreline.
GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL TREND
GLOBAL sea-level rise is just one in a long line of propaganda metrics used by the climate crisis industry to promote the narrative that your CO2 emissions are causing unprecedented
global warming climate change.
WHAT ‘sea-level rise’ alarmists won’t tell you is that the seas have risen 400 feet (120m) over the past 20,000 years, since the end of the last Ice Age. And over the past 200 years have been rising at a steady rate. According to NOAA the current rate of global sea-level rise is 2.8 ± 0.4 mm/year:
Climate change and sea level rise over the past 20,000 years…
SEA-LEVEL RISE ACCELERATION?
SEAS have not stopped rising since the end of the last great Ice Age ~20,000 years ago. However, what is pertinent to the sea-level rise debate is whether SLR is accelerating due to human CO2 emissions…
Dr Judith Curry …
“Sea level has been rising for the last ten thousand years, since the last Ice Age…the question is whether sea level rise is accelerating owing to human caused emissions. It doesn’t look like there is any great acceleration, so far, of sea level rise associated with human warming. These predictions of alarming sea level rise depend on massive melting of the big continental glaciers — Greenland and Antarctica. The Antarctic ice sheet is actually growing. Greenland shows large multi-decadal variability. …. There is no evidence so far that humans are increasing sea level rise in any kind of a worrying way.” — Dr. Judith Curry, video interview published 9 August 2017
“Observed sea level rise over the last century has averaged about 8 inches, although local values may be substantially more or less based on local vertical land motion, land use, regional ocean circulations and tidal variations.“
ACCORDING to “the science” there has been no stat-sig or relevant acceleration of sea-level rise since industrialisation.
THAT said, something other than essential trace gas carbon dioxide caused seas to rise, at the current steady rate, around 1790:
(NOTE that 85% of man-made CO2 was emitted after 1945.)
WHAT we know about rising seas :
- Seas have been rising for the past 20,000 years, since the end of the last Ice Age.
- Something other than CO2 caused seas to rise at the current steady rate around 1790.
- No statistically-siginificant acceleration since ~1790.
CURRENT RATE OF GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL RISE – NOAA
UNTIL early December 2015, NOAA had this web page up showing that “the absolute global sea level rise is believed to be 1.7-1.8 millimeters/year.“.
THAT page is now:
>> 404 – Page Not Found <<
NOAA made it disappear ahead of COP 21.
CURRENT (2018) NOAA SLR RATE = 2.8 ± 0.4 mm/year
SO, according to NOAA, the rate of sea-level rise has increased by ~ 1mm/year since mid 2015. Which is strange, because NASA data shows a “pause” in the rate of sea-level rise since mid 2015:
Via WUWT :
This is interesting. It appears that a “pause” has developed in global sea levels. For two years, since July 2015, there has been no sustained increase in global sea level, in fact, it appears to have actually fallen a bit. This graph, provided by NASA’s Global Climate Change website, tells the story:
A zoom of the area of interest, two years prior to the most recent data point.
CURRENT RATE OF GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL RISE – NASA
NASA has revised down their GSLR rate from 3.4mm/year over the past few years, to currently 3.2 mm/year:
NASA 2018 (Current) SLR RATE = 3.2 mm/year
NOAA & NASA SEA-LEVEL RISE FRAUD
‘SEA’ where the blatant fraud lies in both NOAA and NASA data sets
FORGET the fact that NASA and NOAA SLR data is wildly divergent and changes with the wind…or with the latest climate conference. The current rates of both data sets are clearly exaggerated in order to fit the man-made global warming narrative and provide ‘authority’ for fictional stories to be written by the climate-theory-obsessed mainstream media.
HERE’S how NASA fraudulently arrives at the current rise rate of 3.2 mm/year…
NASA Sea Level Fraud
So let’s look at how NASA committed their fraud. The first thing they did was to add in a 0.3 mm/year “Global Isostatic Adjustment” (GIA) to their satellite data. This is a completely fraudulent adjustment based on theoretical sea floor sinking – which should be used to calculate the sea floor height, not the sea surface height. Even if sea surface height rise was dead zero, the GIA adjustment would show sea surface height increasing by 0.3 mm/year. Mind-blowing malfeasance.
The next fraud was bait and switch. Until 1993, they use tide gauges, but after 1993 they switched to satellites.
This change in instrumentation to uncalibrated satellites produced an immediate doubling of sea level rise rates. Tide gauges do not show any change after 1993. They are attempting to blame an instrumentation change on climate change. Once again, mind-blowing malfeasance.
But it gets much worse. Their tide gauge data is also fraudulent, and does not agree with any historical publications, or current NOAA tide gauge data.
The composite below shows all of the above in one graph. Earlier studies consistently showed half the rate of 1880 to 1980 sea level rise, as NASA shows now.
NOAA has 240 tide gauges globally, and 86% of them show less sea level rise than the claimed average of 3.2 mm/year. The average of all of the NOAA tide gauges is 1.14 mm/year, just over one third of the NOAA climate claims.
In 1982, NASA showed 1 mm/year. Now they claim 3.24 mm/year
Tide gauges show that sea level rise rates peaked around 1950. The claimed increase since 1993 is completely fraudulent.
Sea level has been rising for 20,000 years – and raise rates have slowed considerably.
The 1990 IPCC report said there is “no convincing evidence of acceleration” during the 20th century.
Every single thing NASA says about sea level is fraudulent. NASA’s own data says that Antarctica ice growth is reducing sea level.
Their sea level operation is a propaganda outlet. They are not scientists and are not doing any legitimate science.
AS Judith Curry mentioned in her series of posts on sea level rise, we should heed the words of the famous oceanographer, Carl Wunsch, who said:
“At best, the determination and attribution of global-mean sea-level change lies at the very edge of knowledge and technology. Both systematic and random errors are of concern, the former particularly, because of the changes in technology and sampling methods over the many decades, the latter from the very great spatial and temporal variability. It remains possible that the database is insufficient to compute mean sea-level trends with the accuracy necessary to discuss the impact of global warming, as disappointing as this conclusion may be.”
TOP 10 Climate Change Alarmist Myths Unearthed – Series
PART 3/10 – “Ocean Acidification” coming soon…
UPDATE (12 July 2018)
via WUWT :
Remember when sea-level rise was going to cause Pacific Islands to disappear? Never mind.
Coral atolls getting larger, not sinking according to new study using satellite data
Andrew Montford writes:
Close watchers of the climate scene will probably be familiar with the work of Kench et al., who put a big spanner in the works of the climate alarm community, by demonstrating that coral atolls, far from disappearing beneath the waves, had been getting bigger over the last few decades.
Now, a new paper in Nature Scientific Reports looks as though it is going to add a fairly substantial hammer blow to those same works. The authors, Luijendijk et al., have surveyed sandy beaches around the world using current and historic satellite photographs – the same approach used by Kench – and have found that, in contrast to what a simple ‘global warming equals sea level rise’ approach might predict, more are getting larger rather are shrinking.
Coastal zones constitute one of the most heavily populated and developed land zones in the world. Despite the utility and economic benefits that coasts provide, there is no reliable global-scale assessment of historical shoreline change trends. Here, via the use of freely available optical satellite images captured since 1984, in conjunction with sophisticated image interrogation and analysis methods, we present a global-scale assessment of the occurrence of sandy beaches and rates of shoreline change therein. Applying pixel-based supervised classification, we found that 31% of the world’s ice-free shoreline are sandy. The application of an automated shoreline detection method to the sandy shorelines thus identified resulted in a global dataset of shoreline change rates for the 33 year period 1984–2016. Analysis of the satellite derived shoreline data indicates that 24% of the world’s sandy beaches are eroding at rates exceeding 0.5?m/yr, while 28% are accreting and 48% are stable. The majority of the sandy shorelines in marine protected areas are eroding, raising cause for serious concern.
SEE also :
- SCIENTISTS : ‘Loud Divergence Between Sea-Level Reality And Climate Change Theory’ | Climatism
- PICTORIAL Guide To Sea-Level Rise Alarmism And Observed Reality | Climatism
- THE Fantasy Of Accelerating Sea Level Rise Just Got Hosed | Climatism
- 70+ Scientific Papers Say: Today’s Sea Level Change Indistinguishable From Noise | Climatism
- WORLD Leading Authority : Climate and Sea Level Science Is A “Quasi Religion” Hijacked By An Activist Agenda | Climatism
- CLIMATE “Deniers” Were Right – Island Nation Growing, Not ‘Sinking’ With Sea Level Rise! | Climatism
- Bewildered Scientists…A Global Warming Crisis Fails To Appear: Sea Level Rise Grinds To A Crawl | NoTricksZone (TOP READ)
SEE These Posts To Dive Deeper Into The Science And Alarmism Of SLR :
- BBC Forced To Withdraw Fake Sea Level Claims | Climatism
- The sinking island nation of Tuvalu is actually growing | Inhabitat – Green Design, Innovation, Architecture, Green Building
- It wasn’t CO2: Global sea levels started rising before 1800 « JoNova
Sea-Level Rise Fraud related :
- NASA “Sea Level Rise” Fraud | Climatism
- Miami’s Vice | Climatism
- Tangier Island | Climatism
- Falling Sea Level: The Critical Factor in 2016 Great Barrier Reef Bleaching! | Climatism
- BEAUTIFUL Example Of How Government Climate Agencies LIE To You About “Sea-Level Rise” | Climatism
Sea-Level Rise Alarmism related :
- 44th Pacific “Sinking Islands” Extortion Forum (COP21 Update 2015) | Climatism
- Climate Change Sea Level Rise Extortion | Climatism
- Fiji ‘Flooding’ Is Fake News From #COP23 | Climatism
Fake-News Media Sea-Level Rise Alarmism :
- L.A. Times climate science denial article instead shows the Times clearly denying well established climate science | Climatism
- National Geographic’s Junk Science: How long will it take for sea level rise to reach midway up the Statue of Liberty? | Climatism
(Climate rationalists – you and I – are still waiting for that “big oil” cheque to arrive in the mail!)
Click link for more info…TQ! Jamie.