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TOP 10 Climate Change Alarmist Myths Unearthed : #2 SEA LEVEL RISE

TOP 10 CLIMATE CHANGE ALARMIST MYTHS UNEARTHED Sea Level Rise.png


“CLIMATE alarmism is a gigantic fraud: it only survives by suppressing dissent and by spending tens of billions of dollars of public money every year on pseudo-scientific propaganda.” – Leo Goldstein

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CLIMATISM TOP 10 ALARMIST MYTHS – Intro

EXCESSIVE or exaggerated alarm about a real or imagined threat is fundamental in driving the human CO2-induced global warming climate change narrative.

THE most popular climatic and weather-related events, as marketed by the Climate Crisis Industry, fall well within the bounds of natural variability. So, in order for such events to make the headlines, attract taxpayer funding for ‘research’, and advance the misanthropic, man-made climate change agenda, they must be accompanied by inflated language, an urgent tone, imagery of doom, and in many cases, fraudulent data.

IN this series we take an objective/sceptical look at ten of the more popular metrics used by warming alarmists to push the CAGW (catastrophic anthropogenic global warming) narrative, testing the veracity of the all-too-often wild and alarmist claims associated with each…

CLIMATE CHANGE Alarmist Myths Unearthed 3.png


#2. SEA LEVEL RISE

“THE Seas Are Rising”! You’ve read it, seen it and heard about it just about everywhere in conjunction with the climate change debate. However, the very statement “rising sea levels” is deceptive from the start.

SEA-levels both rise and fall depending on where you are on the planet. Absolute sea-level varies from negative to positive to stable depending on a range of regional factors including: local vertical land motion, land use, salinity, regional ocean circulations, ocean heat content and tidal variations…

NEGATIVE CHANGE

Mean Sea Level Trend
040-081 Narvik, Norway

Mean Sea Level Trend
050-141 Stockholm, Sweden

Mean Sea Level Trend
Juneau, Alaska

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POSITIVE CHANGE

Relative Sea Level Trend
The Battery, New York

Relative Sea Level Trend
Le Havre, France

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STABLE

REMEMBER the “sinking” Pacific Island nations…

THE climate-theory-obsessed mainstream media has gleefully pawned the emotional link between climate change and ‘sinking’ tropical islands to push their man-made global warming agenda…

“The tiny pacific island nation of Tuvalu looks set to become a victim of global warming, with the entire country predicted to be washed away in 50 years.” (BBC 2002)

TUVALU’s plight even formed part of the basis for arguably the most hysterical fake news claim in the history of climate alarmism: the UN’s prediction that by the end of 2010, climate change would have created50 million environmental refugees”!

CLIMATISM, along with the climate sceptic “denier” community have been citing actual scientific data and empirical observations that have consistently contradicted the hysterical claims made by the mainstream media of “drowning island nations” for years…

Relative Sea Level Trend
Funafati B, Tuvalu

NZ research shows Island atolls are growing (“shape-shifting”) not shrinking:

“Results show that 86% of islands remained stable (43%) or increased in area (43%) over the timeframe of analysis…” (Webb et al.)

MORE on “growing” island atolls >> CLIMATE “Deniers” Were Right – Island Nation Growing, Not ‘Sinking’ With Sea Level Rise! | Climatism

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NO overall sea-level rise, at all, in Sydney Harbour since 1910…

Relative Sea Level Trend
680-140 Sydney, Fort Denison 1 & 2, Australia

 

MORE Sydney Harbour…

Relative Sea Level Trend
680-151 Camp Cove, Australia

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NOT much happening in San Francisco Bay either…

Relative Sea Level Trend
9414750 Alameda, California

SFBay

SFBay

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NOAA website has an excellent tool for isolating local relative sea-level (RSL) trends based on tide gauge measurements with respect to a local fixed reference on land:

SEA-LEVEL TRENDS

The sea level trends measured by tide gauges that are presented here are local relative sea level (RSL) trends as opposed to the global sea level trend. Tide gauge measurements are made with respect to a local fixed reference on land. RSL is a combination of the sea level rise and the local vertical land motion. The global sea level trend has been recorded by satellite altimeters since 1992 and the latest global trend can be obtained from NOAA’s Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry, with maps of the regional variation in the trend. The University of Colorado’s Sea Level Research Group compares global sea level rates calculated by different research organizations and discusses some of the issues involved.

Sea Level Trends – NOAA Tides & Currents

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WHAT Exactly is Relative Sea-Level (rise or fall)?

TIDE stations measure Local (Relative) Sea Level, which refers to the height of the water as measured along the coast relative to a specific point on land. There are three possible combinations of relative sea level rise under current geological conditions:

1. ABSOLUTE SEA-LEVEL RISE

aslr_400 Absoulte SLR - CLimatism NOA.gif

This image shows Absolute Sea Level rising and its effect on Relative Sea Level at this Tide Gauge. As time goes by, the surface of the sea rises while the land remains motionless.  This results in Relative Sea Level rise.

2. VERTICAL LAND MOVEMENT

vlm_400 - Vertical SLR - CLIMATISM NOAA.gif

This image shows Relative Sea Level rising but it is the land moving down, towards the center of the Earth, which is causing the sea surface to rise in relation to the land. Downward Vertical Land Movement causes Relative Sea Level rise.  Downward VLM is most often caused by movement of the Earth’s crust, compaction of the soil (which is often created by filling along the water’s edge for docks and piers) and in some cases, water and petroleum extraction.

3. FALLING RELATIVE SEA-LEVEL (Glacial / Isostatic Rebound)

falling_rsl_400 Falling  CLIMATISM NOAA.gif

There is one more case found in the United States.  In many places in Alaska, the land is moving up (glacial rebound) at a greater rate than the sea surface is moving up (at its little 1.7 mm/yr.)  This causes the Relative Sea Level to be falling, though in reality it is the land rising faster than the surface of the sea is rising, thus the sea surface falls when measured against the shoreline.

See more: NOAA — Straight Talk on Sea Level Rise | Watts Up With That?

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GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL TREND

GLOBAL sea-level rise is just one in a long line of propaganda metrics used by the climate crisis industry to promote the narrative that your CO2 emissions are causing unprecedented global warming climate change.

WHAT ‘sea-level rise’ alarmists won’t tell you is that the seas have risen 400 feet (120m) over the past 20,000 years, since the end of the last Ice Age. And over the past 200 years have been rising at a steady rate. According to NOAA the current rate of global sea-level rise is 2.8 ± 0.4 mm/year:

Climate change and sea level rise over the past 20,000 years…

slr-greenland-ice-core Climate change and sea level rise over the past 20,000 years CLIMATISM

Climate change and sea level rise over the past 20,000 years

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SEA-LEVEL RISE ACCELERATION?

SEAS have not stopped rising since the end of the last great Ice Age ~20,000 years ago. However, what is pertinent to the sea-level rise debate is whether SLR is accelerating due to human CO2 emissions…

Dr Judith Curry …

Sea level has been rising for the last ten thousand years, since the last Ice Age…the question is whether sea level rise is accelerating owing to human caused emissions.  It doesn’t look like there is any great acceleration, so far, of sea level rise associated with human warming.  These predictions of alarming sea level rise depend on massive melting of the big continental glaciers — Greenland and Antarctica.  The Antarctic ice sheet is actually growing.  Greenland shows large multi-decadal variability. ….  There is no evidence so far that humans are increasing sea level rise in any kind of a worrying way.” — Dr. Judith Curry, video interview published 9 August 2017

“Observed sea level rise over the last century has averaged about 8 inches, although local values may be substantially more or less based on local vertical land motion, land use, regional ocean circulations and tidal variations.

(Climatism bolds)

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Projections for the 21st century | Climate Etc.

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EMPERICAL “PEER-REVIEWED SCIENCE” Re SLR ACCELERATION:
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THE key finding from the paper is that long-term observations from tide gauges reveal a “recent lack of any detectable acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise“. The modern rate of sea level rise acceleration – 0.002 mm/year² – is so negligible it falls well below the threshold of measurement accuracy.
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PERHAPS at some point “consensus”-based climate science will jettison its focus on models and projections of perilous future climate states directly caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions and instead embrace the observational evidence that may undermine the alarm.
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UNTIL then, we will likely need to continue learning about how many millimeters we humans raise sea levels for each kilometer we drive in our fossil-fuel-powered vehicles. Because that’s how “consensus” climate science works.

ACCORDING to “the science” there has been no stat-sig or relevant acceleration of sea-level rise since industrialisation.

THAT said, something other than essential trace gas carbon dioxide caused seas to rise, at the current steady rate, around 1790:

(NOTE that 85% of man-made CO2 was emitted after 1945.)

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WHAT we know about rising seas :

  • Seas have been rising for the past 20,000 years, since the end of the last Ice Age.
  • Something other than CO2 caused seas to rise at the current steady rate around 1790.
  • No statistically-siginificant acceleration since ~1790.

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CURRENT RATE OF GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL RISE – NOAA

UNTIL early December 2015, NOAA had this web page up showing that the absolute global sea level rise is believed to be 1.7-1.8 millimeters/year..

THAT page is now:

>> 404 – Page Not Found <<

NOAA made it disappear ahead of COP 21.

CURRENT (2018) NOAA SLR RATE = 2.8 ± 0.4 mm/year

SO, according to NOAA, the rate of sea-level rise has increased by ~ 1mm/year since mid 2015. Which is strange, because NASA data shows a “pause” in the rate of sea-level rise since mid 2015:

Inconvenient: NASA shows global sea level…pausing, instead of rising

Via WUWT :

This is interesting. It appears that a “pause” has developed in global sea levels. For two years, since July 2015, there has been no sustained increase in global sea level, in fact, it appears to have actually fallen a bit. This graph, provided by NASA’s Global Climate Change website, tells the story:

A zoom of the area of interest, two years prior to the most recent data point.

Read on…

SCIENTISTS : ‘Loud Divergence Between Sea-Level Reality And Climate Change Theory’ | Climatism

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CURRENT RATE OF GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL RISE – NASA

NASA has revised down their GSLR rate from 3.4mm/year over the past few years, to currently 3.2 mm/year:

Climate Change- Vital Signs of the Planet- Sea Level (2017)

Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet: Sea Level (NASA 2017)

NASA 2018 (Current) SLR RATE = 3.2 mm/year

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NOAA & NASA SEA-LEVEL RISE FRAUD

‘SEA’ where the blatant fraud lies in both NOAA and NASA data sets

FORGET the fact that NASA and NOAA SLR data is wildly divergent and changes with the wind…or with the latest climate conference. The current rates of both data sets are clearly exaggerated in order to fit the man-made global warming narrative and provide ‘authority’ for fictional stories to be written by the climate-theory-obsessed mainstream media.

HERE’S how NASA fraudulently arrives at the current rise rate of 3.2 mm/year…

NASA Sea Level Fraud

Tony Heller // Real Science

So let’s look at how NASA committed their fraud. The first thing they did was to add in a 0.3 mm/year “Global Isostatic Adjustment” (GIA) to their satellite data.  This is a completely fraudulent adjustment based on theoretical sea floor sinking – which should be used to calculate the sea floor height, not the sea surface height. Even if sea surface height rise was dead zero, the GIA adjustment would show sea surface height increasing by 0.3 mm/year. Mind-blowing malfeasance.

The next fraud was bait and switch. Until 1993, they use tide gauges, but after 1993 they switched to satellites.

2015-12-06-02-53-07

This change in instrumentation to uncalibrated satellites produced an immediate doubling of sea level rise rates. Tide gauges do not show any change after 1993. They are attempting to blame an instrumentation change on climate change. Once again, mind-blowing malfeasance.

2015-12-06-02-56-49

But it gets much worse. Their tide gauge data is also fraudulent, and does not agree with any historical publications, or current NOAA tide gauge data.

 

 

 

 

2015-12-06-03-33-11

 

 

The composite below shows all of the above in one graph. Earlier studies consistently showed half the rate of 1880 to 1980 sea level rise, as NASA shows now.

2015-12-06-05-17-40

NOAA has 240 tide gauges globally, and 86% of them show less sea level rise than the claimed average of 3.2 mm/year. The average of all of the NOAA tide gauges is 1.14 mm/year, just over one third of the NOAA climate claims.

 

 

In 1982, NASA showed 1 mm/year.  Now they claim 3.24 mm/year

 

 

Tide gauges show that sea level rise rates peaked around 1950. The claimed increase since 1993 is completely fraudulent.

 

 

2015-12-06-04-22-542015-12-06-04-22-412015-12-06-04-22-142015-12-06-04-21-32

Sea level has been rising for 20,000 years – and raise rates have slowed considerably.

The 1990 IPCC report said there is “no convincing evidence of acceleration” during the 20th century.

2015-12-06-04-28-17

Every single thing NASA says about sea level is fraudulent. NASA’s own data says that Antarctica ice growth is reducing sea level.

Their sea level operation is a propaganda outlet. They are not scientists and are not doing any legitimate science.

NASA Sea Level Fraud | Real Science

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TO CONCLUDE

AS Judith Curry mentioned in her series of posts on sea level rise, we should heed the words of the famous oceanographer, Carl Wunsch, who said:


“At best, the determination and attribution of global-mean sea-level change lies at the very edge of knowledge and technology. Both systematic and random errors are of concern, the former particularly, because of the changes in technology and sampling methods over the many decades, the latter from the very great spatial and temporal variability. It remains possible that the database is insufficient to compute mean sea-level trends with the accuracy necessary to discuss the impact of global warming, as disappointing as this conclusion may be.”

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TOP 10 Climate Change Alarmist Myths Unearthed – Series

PART 3/10 – “Ocean Acidification” coming soon…

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SEE also :

SEE These Posts To Dive Deeper Into The Science And Alarmism Of SLR :

Sea-Level Rise Fraud related :

Sea-Level Rise Alarmism related :

Fake-News Media Sea-Level Rise Alarmism :

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One Comment on “TOP 10 Climate Change Alarmist Myths Unearthed : #2 SEA LEVEL RISE”

  1. RGB from Oz says:

    It’s actually worse than we thought! Kiribati has 5 overlapping tide gauges going back to 1949, and once normalised to the BOM 1804 station, they produce a rate less than 1mm per year rise over the full record. https://eyesonbrowne.wordpress.com/2018/03/28/kiribati-its-still-there-and-its-beautiful/

    Liked by 1 person


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