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ANTARCTICA : It’s Time We Had That Talk


IT’S time for “the talk.” You know, the one we’ve been putting off because it’s “inconvenient”. That end-of-life conversation…

YEP! Antarctica, the ‘inconvenient’ pole, the naughty child, has been gaining ice mass and cooling for decades, despite a 20 per cent increase in atmospheric CO2, and model predictions to the contrary.

2015 NASA Study

Guardian Report 2015

2017 Study

Antartica 2017 Ice mass gain study.png

From the abstract:

Mass changes of the Antarctic ice sheet impact sea-level rise as climate changes, but recent rates have been uncertain. Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) data (2003–08) show mass gains from snow accumulation exceeded discharge losses by 82 ± 25 Gt a−1, reducing global sea-level rise by 0.23 mm a−1.

Mass gains of the Antarctic ice sheet exceed losses | Journal of Glaciology | Cambridge Core

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CLIMATE MODELS AND THE IPCC SAY ANTARTICA SHOULD BE SHRINKING

ACCORDING to the most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), CO2-induced global warming will result in a considerable reduction in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere. Specifically, the report predicts a multi-model average decrease of between 16 and 67 percent in the summer and 8 to 30 percent in the winter by the end of the century (IPCC, AR5 2013).

Climate Models Vs Reality

shuetal.jpg

Observed (blue) and model-forecast (red) Antarctic sea-ice extent published by Shu et al. (2015) shows a large and growing discrepancy, but for unknown reasons, their illustration ends in 2005.

What’s driving Antarctic sea-ice growth?

THANKS to the Journal of Climate by Josefino Comiso et al, we now know what’s driving the increase in Antarctic sea-ice. It’s – wait for it – cooling temperatures over the ocean surrounding Antarctica…

Screen Shot 2018-04-16 at 7.23.27 am.png

Positive Trend in the Antarctic Sea Ice Cover and Associated Changes in Surface Temperature: Journal of Climate: Vol 30, No 6

The Antarctic sea ice extent has been slowly increasing contrary to expected trends due to global warming and results from coupled climate models. After a record high extent in 2012 the extent was even higher in 2014 when the magnitude exceeded 20 × 106 km2 for the first time during the satellite era. The positive trend is confirmed with newly reprocessed sea ice data that addressed inconsistency issues in the time series. The variability in sea ice extent and ice area was studied alongside surface ice temperature for the 34-yr period starting in 1981, and the results of the analysis show a strong correlation of −0.94 during the growth season and −0.86 during the melt season.

seaiceanomoly.jpg

Figure 1. Monthly anomalies of Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent (left panel) and area (right panel) derived using the newly enhanced SB2 data (black) of Comiso et al. and the older SBA data (red) prior to the enhancements made by Comiso et al. Trend lines for each data set are also shown and the trend values with statistical errors are provided. Source: Comiso et al. (2017).

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WHILE large swathes of academia, mainstream media, indoctrinated children, the corporate world and the political class have been conned into a zealot-like belief of man-made global warming climate change, based largely on groupthink, bogus 97% consensus surveys, virtue-signalling and mainstream media eco-hype on repeat, it is important to note that there is still NO empirical evidence proving that mankind’s minuscule addition to trace gas carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has caused any significant climate change or slight recent warming outside of normal bounds. No human fingerprint has been isolated after four decades of research and trillions of dollars of public money spent on global warming hysteria.

THERE is however, significant evidence refuting a human fingerprint on climate change and one of the best examples can be seen from the Antarctic…

KEN’s Kingdom has produced an excellent piece of work on this hard-to-deny observation…

Fingerprints of Greenhouse Warming: Poles Apart

If global warming is driven by the influence of carbon dioxide and other man made greenhouse gases, it will have certain characteristics, as explained by Karl Braganza in his article for The Conversation (14 June 2011).

As water vapour is a very strong greenhouse gas, it will tend to mask the influence of man made greenhouse gases, and because solar radiation is such a powerful driver of temperature, this also must be taken into account.  Therefore, the characteristic greenhouse warming fingerprints are best seen where solar and water vapour influences can be minimised: that is, at night time, in winter, and near the poles.  So we would look for minimum temperatures rising faster than maxima; winter temperatures rising faster than summer, and polar temperatures rising faster than the tropics.  Indeed, polar temperature change in winter should be an ideal metric, as in Arctic and Antarctic regions the sun is almost completely absent in winter, and the intense cold means the atmosphere contains very little water vapour.  We can kill three birds with one stone, as winter months in polar regions are almost continuously night.

So let’s look at the evidence for greater winter and polar warming.

Figure 1: North Polar Summers:

NP summers

Figure 2:  North Polar Winters:

arctic all winters

Yep, North Polar winters are warming very strongly, at +2.58C/100 years, and much faster than summers (+1.83C/100 years)- strong evidence for anthropogenic global warming.  And warming is much faster than the Tropics (+1.023C/100 years):

Figure 3: Tropics

Tropics TLT

Unfortunately for the theory, the opposite happens in the South Polar region:

Figure 4: South Polar Summers

SP summers

Figure 5:  South Polar Winters:

antarctic all winters

While summers are warming (+0.58C/100 years), winters are cooling strongly at -1.66C/100 years.  Over land areas, with little influence from the ocean, very low moisture, and very little solar warming, winters are cooling even faster:

Figure 6:  Antarctic winters over land:

antarctic land winters

This is the exact opposite of what is supposed to happen in very dry, cold, and dark conditions- at night, in winter, at the poles.  Can this be because carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are NOT well mixed, and are in fact decreasing in concentration near the South Pole?

Figure 7: Carbon Dioxide concentration at Cape Grim (Tasmania):

C Grim CO2

Figure 8:  South Polar region TLT (all months) as a function of CO2 concentration:SP vs co2

No, while Cape Grim data show CO2 concentration to be increasing in the Southern Hemisphere, but without the marked seasonal fluctuations of the Northern Hemisphere, there is NO relationship between CO2 and temperature in the South Polar region.

Is it because the oceans around Antarctica are cooling?

Figure 9: South Polar Ocean TLT:

SP ocean

Nope- -0.01C/100 years (+/- 0.1C).  Neither cooling nor warming.

The cold, dry, dark skies over Antarctica are getting colder in winter.  Summers show a small warming trend.

Conclusion:  The fingerprints of man made greenhouse warming are completely absent from the South Pole, and differences between North and South Polar regions must, until shown otherwise, be due to natural factors.

Data sources:

https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt

http://www.csiro.au/en/Research/OandA/Areas/Assessing-our-climate/Latest-greenhouse-gas-data

Mandated disclaimer:-

“Any use of the Content must acknowledge the source of the Information as CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station) and include a statement that CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology give no warranty regarding the accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose and accept no liability in respect of data.”

Fingerprints of Greenhouse Warming: Poles Apart | kenskingdom

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UPDATE

More on Antarctic temperatures via NTZ

‘Polar Amplification’ From Increased CO2 Not Detectable For Antarctica

Consistent with the conceptualization that “polar amplification” from increasing human CO2 emissions has gone unrealized, the temperature records for the Antarctic continent do not suggest warming has occurred in recent decades.

Antarctica-Cooling-Since-1970s-Climate4you-Miles-2013-Turner-2016.jpg

Graph Sources: Climate4you, Miles et al., 2013, Turner et al., 2016

In 2015, Climate Scientists Wrecked Their Own CO2-Forced ‘Polar Amplification’ Narrative | NTZ

BIG increase in snowfall in Antarctica with “The effect of the extra snow locked up in Antarctica is to slightly slow a general trend in global sea-level rise.” Again, defying IPCC climate model predictions on snowfall.

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UPDATE

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CONCLUSION

THE Antarctic anomaly should give pause for thought about climate alarmism in general and implore us all to evaluate the worthiness and sense of spending literally trillions of dollars of public money on draconian and overarching climate policy coupled with highly subsidised green schemes and scams in order to arrogantly attempt to stop, slow or for some, even halt a natural phenomenon that’s been happening since the beginning of time – climate change!

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Related :

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6 Comments on “ANTARCTICA : It’s Time We Had That Talk”

  1. tallbloke says:

    Reblogged this on Tallbloke's Talkshop and commented:
    .
    .
    Surprise: Antarctic climate change is of opposite sign to model expectations.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. craigm350 says:

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    An excellent summary of the stubbornness of nature ruling in Antarctica.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. oldpoet56 says:

    Very good article, I am going to reblog it for you.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. […] ANTARCTICA : It’s Time We Had That Talk | Climatism […]

    Like


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