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THE Great Global Warming “Pause”

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BETWEEN the start of 1997 and the end of 2014, average global surface temperature stalled. This 18-year period is known as the global warming “pause” or “hiatus” and has been the subject of much research and debate in peer-reviewed scientific journals.

THE rise in global temperatures that alarmed climate campaigners in the 1990’s had slowed so much that the trend was no longer statistically significant. This despite one-third of Man’s entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution occurring since February 1997.

THE pause took a pause during the 2015/16 super El Niño which was the strongest such event in recorded history and helped to make 2015 and 2016 the warmest years in the modern warm period. However, 2017 witnessed the biggest drop in global temps in recorded history, seen across most data sets, bringing temps back inline with 1997-2014 averages, rendering “the pause” alive and well, to date.

THERE has been a recent surge in media reports aiming to debunk and bury the inconvenient hiatus, not predicted by any climatologist, science agency, government body, media outlet or UN computer model.

A few of the latest attempts by the mainsteam media at re-writing climate history…

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BEFORE it “never happened” – ‘established’, ‘peer-reviewed’ climate science was all over the pause…

1997 – 2015 TEMPS

 

 

PEER-REVIEWED PAUSE “SCIENCE”

 

The Executive Summary alone mentions the word “pause” eleven times, but the key paragraph is this:

UPDATE

The Met Office link to their “pause” explanation has been deleted! Very un-Orwellian of the climate mafia…

“The past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became the truth.”― George Orwell1984


2017

“The hiatus continues to challenge climate science.” – Hedemann et al | Nature Climate Change …

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The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses | Nature Climate Change

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PAUSE for thought via Tony Heller’s RealClimateScience

Before it was disappeared, the hiatus was central to the IPCC report.

The MWP, LIA, 1940’s spike, 1970’s global cooling – all disappeared by the climate mafia.

Sometimes settled science requires rewriting history over and over again.

Deep Sixing The Hiatus | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog

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CALL me a cynic, but if “global warming” is so dastardly, and an “imminent global threat”, as we’re constantly told, isn’t a near 20 year warming “pause”, “hiatus” or “slowdown” (if that works better for you) a good thing? It definitely wouldn’t appear so by how much abuse, huffing and puffing is spewed out by the climate mafia when those two words – “pause” or “hiatus” are printed or uttered. One might think that the angry voices have skin in the climate game, financially, politically and/or ideologically. Oh…wait!

AS we know, the pause has been a big embarrassment to the climate establishment, because the longer it goes on, the more it casts doubt on their climate models and their theory, and thus threatens the literal trillion dollar industry made up of grants, funds, well-paid government jobs in climate bureaucracies, rent-seekers, advocacy groups, bird-slicers (windmills) and bat-blasters (solar farms)…

A LOT of jobs, reputations and (taxpayer) funds are now at stake.

*

TO conclude, an excellent summary of the pause and what it means for our understanding of the chaotic and complex climate system by Dr David Whitehouse…

The lesson of the pause is not that the greenhouse effect doesn’t exist, but rather that the computer models, which predicted an acceleration in global warming, and on which current policy is based, have proved to be inaccurate. Nevertheless, the pause is an important event that enriches our understanding of a highly complex climate system. In the future, a long-term rise in global temperatures may resume. There is a good chance, however, that the recent super El Niño only interrupted the 1997-2014 pause. No-one knows. But if the pause were to resume or warming keeps slowing down, many of the fundamental assumptions of climate science would have to be re-assessed.

Dr David Whitehouse is the science editor of the Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)

•••

UPDATE

THE latest “pause-buster” paper that this post is based on claims that “Missing Arctic temperature data, not Mother Nature, created the seeming slowdown of global warming from 1998 to 2012, according to a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change.” – Zhang et al. …

IF that’s the case, then what for the “missing data” at the other ‘inconvenient’ pole – Antarctica – that has been cooling for the past ~40 year and gaining ice mass?

“Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) data (2003–08) show mass gains from snow accumulation exceeded discharge losses by 82 ± 25 Gt a−1, reducing global sea-level rise by 0.23 mm a−1..” – H. Jay Zwally et al. …

PERHAPS cancel’s out the apparent “unreported” Arctic data that underpins the latest pause-buster attempt by Zhang et al.

FURTHER, a valid and worthy observation by our friends “Climate Realists” who noted on twitter:

Latest Excuse on the Pause: There was NO pause in global warming because of a lack of data in the Arctic… and yet your told the Arctic is the worst it’s ever been.. work that one out.

AND this via @SimonMaxfield8

FOR the Arctic they give a warming estimate of 0.659°C per decade. This means, without the Arctic data, the global temperature paused, i.e. only one region was contributing to global warming, and a region where it’s been estimated about half is due to natural factors.  

•••

UPDATE – Big Global TLT Temp drop In Jan

ALL 2016/17 super El Nino warming effectively gone from the system. Global temps according to UAH back to pre 2016 “Hottest Year Evah” temps…

EXPECT further drops following the February NH deep freeze that has seen snow fall as far as southern Morocco and the Sahara desert, sharks freezing to death in the US and Iguanas frozen solid in Florida.

  • Anomaly for January, 2018 was +0.26 deg. C.
  • Coolest tropics since June, 2012 at -0.12 deg. C.

•••

UPDATE

The Pause Has Returned

“THE PAUSE” Lives On : Global Temperatures Continue To Cool Despite Record And Rising CO2 Emissions

UAH_LT_1979_thru_February_2018_v6.jpg

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GREATEST TWO-YEAR COOLING EVENT IN A CENTURY (According to NASA data)

ACCORDING to NASA data, the recent 0.56°C plunge in global temperatures, following the 2015/16 super El Nino, is the greatest two-year cooling event in a century. “You have to go back to 1982-84 for the next biggest two-year drop, 0.47°C—also during the global warming era.”

DELLERS with the details :

Earth in ‘Greatest Two-Year Cooling Event in a Century’ Shock

Our planet has just experienced the most extreme two-year cooling event in a century. But where have you seen this reported anywhere in the mainstream media?

You haven’t, even though the figures are pretty spectacular. As Aaron Brown reports hereat Real Clear Markets:

From February 2016 to February 2018 (the latest month available) global average temperatures dropped 0.56°C. You have to go back to 1982-84 for the next biggest two-year drop, 0.47°C—also during the global warming era. All the data in this essay come from GISTEMP Team, 2018: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (dataset accessed 2018-04-11 at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). This is the standard source used in most journalistic reporting of global average temperatures.

The 2016-18 Big Chill was composed of two Little Chills, the biggest five month drop ever (February to June 2016) and the fourth biggest (February to June 2017). A similar event from February to June 2018 would bring global average temperatures below the 1980s average. February 2018 was colder than February 1998.

To put this temperature drop in context, consider that this is enough to offset by more than half the entirety of the global warming the planet has experienced since the end of the 19th century.

Read the rest on Breitbart.

UPDATE

DON’T Tell Anyone, But We Just Had Two Years Of Record-Breaking Global Cooling

•••

Global Warming Pause/Hiatus Related :

El Niño Related :

 

 

 

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13 Comments on “THE Great Global Warming “Pause””

  1. I don’t think this is a pause. We have seen the data and it is quasi-periodic. approximately sinusoidal with a period about 60 years. The system appears to be governed by oceanic oscillations.

    We have been seeing what we ought to expect at the top of the cycle, close to zero change except the short term ENSO is dominant.

    We can expect a fairly slow start to the downturn and about 5 years from now abrupt cooling to at least the level of 1965, cooler if the astrophysicists are correct. We can expect recovery in around 50 years.

    Like

    • Jamie Spry says:

      IPCC Ben Santer’s AGW falsification timescale has always intrigued…

      “Our results show that temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global-mean tropospheric temperature.” – Benjamin Santer et al. 2011

      https://t.co/aD7kfRCjFh

      Like

    • Jamie Spry says:

      I personally don’t agree or like “pause” as a description, but it has become part of the lexicon of climate language, despite its short timescale. Mainly because climate models failed to predict it.

      Like

  2. Scottish Sceptic says:

    Here’s the simple facts.

    In the 1970s we were in the middle of a global cooling scare at the same time as increasing use of coal was pumping out masses of atmospheric particulates and sulphates. These led to smogs – whereby water condensed on particulates and reduced the transmittance of sunlight.

    From 1970 to around 2000, the world set about reducing these particulates and sulphates and as a result not only did atmospheric pollution drop massively – but global temperature rose.

    By around 2000, the atmosphere had got about as good as it was going to get. Some countries were still reducing, but newer countries had started emitting. So, since 2000 not only has the amount of atmospheric pollutants been pretty stable but guess what …. so has global temperature.

    Of course, according to all the climate “scientists” who say the understand how sunlight is blocked by smog, who say they understand how blocking sunlight will stop heat getting through, who say they monitored the atmosphere in minute detail – so presumably know that the level of smog forming pollutants changed from 1970-2000 just at the same time as we got the massive warming. According to these arrogant, deceitful know-it-all propagandists … there’s no connection at all between the smog forming pollutants and global temperature.

    Because … if they admitted there was … there would be no place for CO2 … and if all the work to clean up the atmosphere had already been done … what would we need all their research to find out?

    Liked by 1 person

  3. kramer says:

    When I want to save these types of articles from ‘disappearing’ from the web, i go to the following site and paste the link into the”SAVE PAGE NOW” box:
    https://archive.org/web/

    Like

  4. […] THE Great Global Warming “Pause” | Climatism […]

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