THE Great Global Warming “Pause”
Posted: November 23, 2017 Filed under: Alarmist media, Climate models, Climatism, Dud predictions, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Failed Climate Models, Global Temperature, Green Agenda, IPCC, NASA, NOAA, The Pause | Tags: "The Pause", auspol, Climate Change, Climate science, Climatism, COP24, Global Warming, Global Warming "Pause", Global Warming Hiatus, IPCC, nasa, nature, Nature Mag, NOAA, Pal-Review, Peer Review, science, UK Met Office, warming pause
BETWEEN the start of 1997 and the end of 2014, average global surface temperature stalled. This 18-year period is known as the global warming “pause” or “hiatus” and has been the subject of much research and debate in peer-reviewed scientific journals.
THE rise in global temperatures that alarmed climate campaigners in the 1990’s had slowed so much that the trend was no longer statistically significant. This despite one-third of Man’s entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution occurring since February 1997.
THE pause took a pause during the 2015/16 super El Niño which was the strongest such event in recorded history and helped to make 2015 and 2016 the warmest years in the modern warm period. However, 2017 witnessed the biggest drop in global temps in recorded history, seen across most data sets, bringing temps back inline with 1997-2014 averages, rendering “the pause” alive and well, to date.
THERE has been a recent surge in media reports aiming to debunk and bury the inconvenient hiatus, not predicted by any climatologist, science agency, government body, media outlet or UN computer model.
A few of the latest attempts by the mainsteam media at re-writing climate history…
BEFORE it “never happened” – established, peer-reviewed climate science was all over the pause.
IN fact, before it was disappeared, the hiatus was central to the IPCC report…
THE “PAUSE” TIMELINE
1997 – 2015 TEMPS
PEER-REVIEWED PAUSE “SCIENCE”
The Executive Summary alone mentions the word “pause” eleven times, but the key paragraph is this:
The Met Office link to their “pause” explanation has been deleted! Very un-Orwellian of the climate mafia…
“The past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became the truth.”― George Orwell, 1984
“The hiatus continues to challenge climate science.” – Hedemann et al | Nature Climate Change …
The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses | Nature Climate Change
PAUSE for thought via Tony Heller’s RealClimateScience…
Before it was disappeared, the hiatus was central to the IPCC report.
The MWP, LIA, 1940’s spike, 1970’s global cooling – all disappeared by the climate mafia.
Sometimes settled science requires rewriting history over and over again.
Deep Sixing The Hiatus | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog
CALL me a cynic, but if “global warming” is so dastardly, and an “imminent global threat”, as we’re constantly told, isn’t a near 20 year warming “pause”, “hiatus” or “slowdown” (if that works better for you) a good thing? It definitely wouldn’t appear so by how much abuse, huffing and puffing is spewed out by the climate mafia when those two words – “pause” or “hiatus” are printed or uttered. One might think that the angry voices have skin in the climate game, financially, politically and/or ideologically. Oh…wait!
AS we know, the pause has been a big embarrassment to the climate establishment, because the longer it goes on, the more it casts doubt on their climate models and their theory, and thus threatens the literal trillion dollar industry made up of grants, funds, well-paid government jobs in climate bureaucracies, rent-seekers, advocacy groups, bird-slicers (windmills) and bat-blasters (solar farms)…
A LOT of jobs, reputations and (taxpayer) funds are now at stake.
TO conclude, an excellent summary of the pause and what it means for our understanding of the chaotic and complex climate system by Dr David Whitehouse…
The lesson of the pause is not that the greenhouse effect doesn’t exist, but rather that the computer models, which predicted an acceleration in global warming, and on which current policy is based, have proved to be inaccurate. Nevertheless, the pause is an important event that enriches our understanding of a highly complex climate system. In the future, a long-term rise in global temperatures may resume. There is a good chance, however, that the recent super El Niño only interrupted the 1997-2014 pause. No-one knows. But if the pause were to resume or warming keeps slowing down, many of the fundamental assumptions of climate science would have to be re-assessed.
Dr David Whitehouse is the science editor of the Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
UPDATE : The “Pause” Busters
THE latest “pause-buster” paper that this post is based on claims that “Missing Arctic temperature data, not Mother Nature, created the seeming slowdown of global warming from 1998 to 2012, according to a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change.” – Zhang et al. …
IF that’s the case, then what for the “missing data” at the other ‘inconvenient’ pole – Antarctica – that has been cooling for the past ~40 year and gaining ice mass?
“Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) data (2003–08) show mass gains from snow accumulation exceeded discharge losses by 82 ± 25 Gt a−1, reducing global sea-level rise by 0.23 mm a−1..” – H. Jay Zwally et al. …
PERHAPS cancel’s out the apparent “unreported” Arctic data that underpins the latest pause-buster attempt by Zhang et al.
FURTHER, a valid and worthy observation by our friends “Climate Realists” who noted on twitter:
Latest Excuse on the Pause: There was NO pause in global warming because of a lack of data in the Arctic… and yet your told the Arctic is the worst it’s ever been.. work that one out.
AND this via
FOR the Arctic they give a warming estimate of 0.659°C per decade. This means, without the Arctic data, the global temperature paused, i.e. only one region was contributing to global warming, and a region where it’s been estimated about half is due to natural factors. #Oops
UPDATE – Big Global LT Temp Drop In Jan
ALL 2016/17 super El Nino warming effectively gone from the system. Global temps according to UAH back to pre 2016 “Hottest Year Evah” temps…
EXPECT further drops following the February NH deep freeze that has seen snow fall as far as southern Morocco and the Sahara desert, sharks freezing to death in the US and Iguanas frozen solid in Florida.
- Anomaly for January, 2018 was +0.26 deg. C.
- Coolest tropics since June, 2012 at -0.12 deg. C.
GREATEST TWO-YEAR COOLING EVENT IN A CENTURY (According to NASA data)
ACCORDING to NASA data, the recent 0.56°C plunge in global temperatures, following the 2015/16 super El Nino, is the greatest two-year cooling event in a century. “You have to go back to 1982-84 for the next biggest two-year drop, 0.47°C—also during the global warming era.”
DELLERS with the details :
Our planet has just experienced the most extreme two-year cooling event in a century. But where have you seen this reported anywhere in the mainstream media?
You haven’t, even though the figures are pretty spectacular. As Aaron Brown reports hereat Real Clear Markets:
From February 2016 to February 2018 (the latest month available) global average temperatures dropped 0.56°C. You have to go back to 1982-84 for the next biggest two-year drop, 0.47°C—also during the global warming era. All the data in this essay come from GISTEMP Team, 2018: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (dataset accessed 2018-04-11 at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). This is the standard source used in most journalistic reporting of global average temperatures.
The 2016-18 Big Chill was composed of two Little Chills, the biggest five month drop ever (February to June 2016) and the fourth biggest (February to June 2017). A similar event from February to June 2018 would bring global average temperatures below the 1980s average. February 2018 was colder than February 1998.
To put this temperature drop in context, consider that this is enough to offset by more than half the entirety of the global warming the planet has experienced since the end of the 19th century.
Read the rest on Breitbart.
LATEST global temps (UAH). The cool-down continues…
UPDATE (June 2018)
THE latest UAH V6.0 May anomaly of +0.18 brings temperatures back to the levels they were at the beginning of the Century, reinforcing the current 18+ year global warming “pause”, despite record and rising CO2 emissions…
UPDATE (June 2018)
New Met Office study suggests natural factors, including the sun, are the biggest reason behind “the pause”
More excuses for “the pause”.
A team of researchers from the U.K. Met Office, Sweden and Australia has found that three periods of global warming slowdown since 1891 were likely due to natural causes rather than disruptions to the factors causing global warming. In their paper published on the open access site Science Advances, the group describes their study of global mean surface temperatures (GMST) since the late 19th century and what they found…
New Met Office study suggests natural factors, including the sun, are the biggest reason behind “the pause” | Watts Up With That?
UPDATE (June 2018)
UPDATE (August 2018)
UPDATE – Global Temperature Anomaly (August 2018)
LOWER troposphere global temperatures continue their decline off the 2015/16 Super El Niño highs.
AUGUST temps plunged off the July bump of +0.32 deg. C, cooling back to +0.19 deg. C above the long-term average.
THE August anomaly drop brings global temps back to 2002 levels…
UPDATE – Global Temperature Anomaly (September 2018)
“The Pause” Celebrates Its 20th Birthday!
“THE PAUSE” in global warming is now in its 20th year.
NO global warming trend for two decades despite a 1/3rd of ALL human influence since 1750 occurring over the past 20 years!
IT’s no wonder they changed the name from “Global Warming” to “Climate Change”!
Via The Climate Guy:
The long-term linear temperature trend since January 1979 remains at +0.13°C per decade, but there is a trend of +/-0.01°C for the past 20 years; since 1998.
UPDATE : Sunday 14 October, 2018
PROPS TO CLIMATISM!
THE greatest current affairs show in town, Sky News Australia’s “Outsiders” feat. fellow deplorables and used Climatism research (this post) for its “Great Global Warming Pause” report on their iconic “Ice-Age Watch” / “Rowan’s Weather” segment!
UPDATE : November, 2018
NASA satellites and HadCRUT temperature data sets confirm recent rapid global cooling :
NASA MSU Satellite Data (UAH) :
GLOBAL Temperature Drops By 0.4°C In Three Years (HadCRUT) :
UPDATE : February, 2019
GLOBAL Warming “Pause/Hiatus” Related :
EL Niño Related :
UN-Settled “Science” :
STATE Of The Climate (August 2018) :
IPCC Report 2018 SR15 :
POVERTY and DECARBONISATION related :
ORIGINS Of The Global Warming Scam :
CLIMATISM Hot Links :
TEMPERATURE Related :
(Climate sceptics/rationalists still waitin’ for that “big oil” cheque to arrive in the mail!)
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