Advertisements

Finally, a study that shows unreliable models are the root of overwrought ‘extreme weather’ events

And yet still, draconian climate policy and literally trillions of dollars worth of ‘green’ schemes and scams are dictated and directed around overheated IPCC and CSIRO climate models that *do not* observe reality and are simply broken.

Watts Up With That?

Dr. Judith Curry tips me to this new study in GRL:

Unreliable climate simulations overestimate attributable risk of extreme weather and climate events

Omar Bellprat, Francisco Doblas-Reyes

Abstract
Event attribution aims to estimate the role of an external driver after the occurrence of an extreme weather and climate event by comparing the probability that the event occurs in two counterfactual worlds. These probabilities are typically computed using ensembles of climate simulations whose simulated probabilities are known to be imperfect. The implications of using imperfect models in this context are largely unknown, limited by the number of observed extreme events in the past to conduct a robust evaluation. Using an idealized framework, this model limitation is studied by generating large number of simulations with variable reliability in simulated probability. The framework illustrates that unreliable climate simulations are prone to overestimate the attributable risk to climate change. Climate model ensembles tend to be…

View original post 53 more words

Advertisements

DMI disappears an inconvenient sea ice graph

Watts Up With That?

One of the graphs we have had on the WUWT sea ice page has been the DMI graph showing 30% concentration of sea ice extent, there has been a widening divergence between the two Arctic sea ice extent graphs produced by DMI.  WUWT reader David Burton writes:

Until a few days ago, Denmark’s Meteorologiske Institut (DMI) graphed Arctic sea ice extent two ways. They had a graph comparing the current year to the preceding ten years’ “30%+ concentration” Arctic sea ice extent, with coastal zones masked out, by graphing each year in a different color on the same horizontal timescale.

DMI-30percent-sea-ice

They also had (and still have) a graph comparing the current year to the preceding four years’ “15%+ concentration” Arctic sea ice extent (and I don’t know how they handle coastal zones in that version). In both graphs, the current (partial) year is plotted with a heavier black line.

View original post 898 more words


£4m a week not to use UK windfarms 

…Not to mention the other small problem when the wind ‘doesn’t’ blow.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Money down the drain [image credit: thisismoney.co.uk] Money down the drain
[image credit: thisismoney.co.uk]
Over-supply of wind energy is a known problem, but it’s getting worse as more windfarms are connected to an electricity grid that wasn’t designed to accommodate them. Wind Energy News explains.

Energy giants have been paid a record £4million a week in subsidy this winter to turn off wind turbines. While people struggled to pay energy bills compensation was handed to wind farm owners because the power they generate could not be used.

View original post 292 more words