Richard Tol’s Excellent Summary of the Flaws in Cook et al. (2013) – The Infamous 97% Consensus Paper

Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale

It’s been almost 2 years since Cook et al. (2013) Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature was published. If you’re like me, you’ve lost track of the paper’s flaws, there were just so many, and how it is misrepresented, which is most of the time. Richard Tol has published an excellent summary of Cook et al. (2013) in his blog post Global warming consensus claim does not stand up (author’s cut). An edited version appeared in the Australian on March 24, 2015.

Richard’s post begins:

Now almost two years old, John Cook’s 97% consensus paper has been a runaway success. Downloaded over 300,000 times, voted the best 2013 paper in Environmental Research Letters, frequently cited by peers and politicians from around the world, with a dedicated column in the Guardian, the paper seems to be the definitive…

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The NSIDC Big Lie Continues To Unravel

NSIDC follow-up must see :

Implausibly Deniable Propaganda At NSIDC

Real Science

Last week NSIDC rushed out a fully fraudulent press release, claiming a record low winter maximum – on a day when the US Navy was predicting a big surge in ice. That surge has occurred, and ice extent is now higher than 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2011. It is about to pass 2008 and 2014

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Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Same story with the Norwegian Space Agency

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The press wildly exaggerated the story, and the big lie proceeds according to plan. All for the greater good.

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Great Lakes Ice Cover Third Highest On Record

Real Science

Two years ago, Joe Romm announced the end of Great Lakes ice.

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How Climate Change Is Damaging The Great Lakes, With Implications For The Environment And The Economy | ThinkProgress

Two of the three highest ice years have occurred in the two years since Joe Romm announced the demise of Great Lakes ice.

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Product – Product Search – Canadian Ice Service

“It’s becoming certain that, like the rest of the country, the Great Lakes are feeling the effects of climate change.”

It is becoming certain that fraudsters like Joe Romm are pushing an agenda.

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Don’t Let Climate Change Hysteria Damage The Economy

Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to
know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.”UN IPCC
Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical
chemist.

“It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of
scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.”U.S Government
Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of
NOAA.

“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.”Nobel Prize Winner for
Physics, Ivar Giaever.

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via The Australian :

Don’t let climate change hysteria damage the economy

“In all the talk about climate change, one compelling fact is often overlooked,” Australian Conservation Foundation president Geoff Cousins writes. “Just a handful of companies are responsible for nearly one-third of our nation’s greenhouse pollution through their production and consumption of energy.”

Man-made “carbon pollution” has become the shorthand rallying cry that unites global warming believers. The notion is a figment. It is made up. It is rooted in anti-capitalist, anti-growth green ideology that, for too long, has been bullied into our consciousness as science. It is shielded by censorship and falsely cloaked in the authority and respectability of science. But the hypothesis that supports it is collapsing.

Six months into his role at the ACF, Cousins wants to make his mark as an advocate for the cause. His constituents expect it. After all, the December climate conference in Paris is approaching and global warming hysteria has to be ramped up to preserve the endless flow of dollars that sustains it. Nothing must be allowed to rain on that parade.

But no matter how many times Cousins recites his political mantra, carbon dioxide will remain colourless, odourless and a non-pollutant. To quote Massachusetts Institute of Technology emeritus professor of atmospheric sciences Richard Lindzen: “We are demonising a chemical, a molecule essential to life.” Indeed; a molecule that, throughout Earth’s history, has fluctuated in its concentration. Higher temperatures have coexisted with lower CO2 levels than today, and the world has been colder at higher concentrations. There is no reliable correlation between temperatures on Earth’s surface and the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Cousins also repeats that other old chestnut: “Already pollution is leading to more frequent and more intense droughts, bushfires, heatwaves and other extreme weather. Hot days have doubled in Australia in the past 50 years.” But what does he mean by hot days? How do the past 50 years compare to the 50 years before 1910, the convenient start date the Bureau of Meteorology adopts to avoid the extreme heat of the Federation Drought years?

Is he taking his drought trends from the same BoM source that maintains drought increased in the seven areas researched, even though an independent expert review of the data showed a declining trend in five of the seven? Is it the same BoM source that asserted Queensland was suffering the worst drought in 80 years when its own website declared it was the worst in nine? And what about James Cook University’s Jon Nott, who found Queensland is experiencing fewer cyclones than at any time in the past 500 years?

Should Cousins wish to look further afield, no point looking to the US for support because, for the first time since 1969, there have been no tornadoes reported in March, usually a big month for severe weather. What’s more the US has experienced fewer tornadoes in the past three years than any similar span since accurate records began in the 1950s.

The absence of any solid scientific evidence to connect extreme weather events to human activity has required the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to reluctantly concede no correlation exists. This hasn’t stopped Cousins perpetuating that myth or naming, shaming and blaming respectable companies.

“We must consider,” writes Cousins, “how to start retiring the most polluting and outdated coal plants and replacing them with clean energy.” He must be aware of the job losses this would cause. The economics on that is settled. The renewable energy obsession has come at a cost to growth and employment, especially in South Australia, California, Ontario, Britain and Europe.

In partial capitulation, from 2017 the EU will become technology agnostic and feed-in-tariffs will be phased out. While Cousins is urging us to dump coal, Europe is providing payments to make sure coal-fired power stations stay online. In fact, the EU’s package being worked up for Paris will not specifically target coal. No wonder the Financial Times referred to renewables as a fad. But it is a fad with consequences.

Lindzen says: “World leaders are embarking on costly policies that have no capacity to replace fossil fuels but enrich crony capitalists at public expense, increasing costs for all and restricting access to energy to the world’s poorest populations that still lack access to electricity’s benefits.”

Cambridge University’s Prince Philip professor of technology Michael Kelly reckons: “The project to solve ‘the climate change problem’ is a modern version of the biblical Tower of Babel. We do not know how much it will cost, when it will be completed nor what success will look like.” Only someone who controls other people’s money could sign up for something so ethereal. Only those who have lost touch with reality, or have some ulterior motive, could embark on a project so reckless.

Whatever the ACF’s motives, advocating policies that will destroy jobs and growth cannot be condoned. That includes campaigning against reductions in the renewable energy target when it is causing energy-intensive industries to close.

For more than 17 years satellites have recorded an unexplained hiatus in global tem­peratures. We don’t know whether the future direction will be down or up. Yet Paris delegates will proceed as if they do. Sanctions may even be recommended against countries deemed non-compliant. Better for Australia to await that outcome than impose unnecessary burdens on an economy struggling for growth.

Maurice Newman is chairman of the Prime Minister’s Business Advisory Council. The views expressed here are his own.

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Newman Related :

See also :