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John Christy: Climate Prediction too Uncertain for Policymaking

Climatism comment : Pleasant to read climate science delivered in an objective, calm, reasoned, rational, non agenda-driven and ‘sceptical’ way.
Good interview Rog.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

John Christy has been interviewed by ‘Talking about the weather‘:

christyJohn Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama-Huntsville.John Christy is a climate scientist at the University of Alabama-Huntsville. Along with Roy Spencer, he developed the first satellite temperature record of the Earth. Skeptical about catastrophic anthropogenic global warming, he has been invited to speak before Congress several times. He is the director of the Earth System Science Center at UAH.

TATW: What would be the single piece of information that you would convey to people who have strong opinions about climate and little knowledge?

CHRISTY: A fundamental aspect of science is that when we scientifically understand a system, we are able to predict how the system evolves in time. The comparison of model output with observations indicates we have much less understanding than what is needed to predict it with any confidence. I…

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GLOBAL WARMING Is The Greatest And Most Successful Pseudoscientific Fraud In History

The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations
on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models
.”
– Prof. Chris Folland,
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

It doesn’t matter what is true,
it only matters what people believe is true
.”
– Paul Watson,
co-founder of Greenpeace

“As we all know, this isn’t about truth at all, its about plausibly deniable accusations.”

– Michael E. Mann | Climategate Emails

aaa jones

“Kevin and I will keep (skeptic papers) out (of IPCC) somehow – even if we have to redefine what peer-review literature is” – Phil Jones | Climategate Emails

“As you know, I’m not political. If anything, I would like to see the climate change happen, so the science could be proved right, regardless of the consequences. This isn’t being political, it is being selfish.” – Phil Jones

•••

If you think that the tampering of the earth’s temperature record, to fit the man-made global warming narrative, is another climate denier conspiracy theory, then read this Climategate email from the UK’s leading climate expert, Phil Jones, to the UK Met Office and officials…

screenhunter_400-feb-09-04-21

via Real Science – Phil Jones Fishing For Excuses To Kill Off Global Cooling.

UPDATE

He who controls the past, controls the future. He who controls the present, controls the past …

screenhunter_303-feb-07-09-19

They did exactly what Wigley was suggesting, removing more than 0.15 C from 1940′s global temperatures. This tampering is what made the hockey stick possible.

If the present refuses to get warmer, then the past must become cooler …

screenhunter_230-feb-06-05-291

Motherlode Part III | Real Science

•••

UPDATE

MUST SEE Video : Sun news – NASA fudges historical temperature numbers to bolster claim that global warming exists.

Screen Shot 2014-02-13 at , February 13, 9.13.12 pm

NASA funding facts or fiction? : Prime time : SunNews Video Gallery

See Also : SUN NEWS EXCLUSIVE : NASA Fudges Historical Temperature Data | Climatism

•••

UPDATE

via Steve Goddard’s Real Science :

NASA is constantly altering their historical data to create the appearance of a non-existent warming trend.

GISS-1981-2002-2014-global

gissus19992014

The NASA graphs are useful for politicians who want to raise taxes, and for insurance companies who want to raise premiums – but are worse than useless for scientists who actually want to understand the climate. They show the exact opposite of what is happening to the climate.

The NASA Temperature Record Is A Farce | Real Science

•••

UPDATE

MUST SEE Climategate Video :

The ‘still’ present Director of the UK’s Climatic Research Unit (CRU), ‘Scientist’ Phil Jones gives evidence to the UK Parliamentary Enquiry into Climategate 2009 …

“I’ve obviously written some awful emails, and I fully admit that …”

•••

UPDATE (COP21 November 2015)

Biggest Fraud In History – Perpetrated By Tom Karl And Gavin Schmidt

•••

More NASA fraud here:

The Biggest Fraud In Science History http://wp.me/p3Bc8A-2vA via @JWSpry

For Charts and Evidence see Real Science’s ‘Motherlode’ Series :

Climategate Related :

NASA / NOAA / IPCC  Temperature Data Fraud Related :

Climatism Related :


Skeptical Science: heads in the sand

Australian Climate Madness

Even Naturehas acknowledged that the Pause is real, and that the models are missing something:

Average global temperatures hit a record high in 1998 — and then the warming stalled. For several years, scientists wrote off the stall as noise in the climate system: the natural variations in the atmosphere, oceans and biosphere that drive warm or cool spells around the globe. But the pause has persisted, sparking a minor crisis of confidence in the field. Although there have been jumps and dips, average atmospheric temperatures have risen little since 1998, in seeming defiance of projections of climate models and the ever-increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. […]

But none of the climate simulations carried out for the IPCC produced this particular hiatus at this particular time. That has led sceptics — and some scientists — to the controversial conclusion that the models might be overestimating the effect of greenhouse gases…

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Shock News : Green Energy Not Fit for the Grid

Giving society cheap, abundant energy would be the
equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun
.”
– Prof Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University

Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the
industrialized civilizations collapse?
Isn’t it our responsiblity to bring that about
?”
– Maurice Strong,
founder of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)

BfkKfunCcAAgLDA

February 4, 2014

Viv Forbes

Germany’s wind and solar power generation came to a standstill in late 2013. More than 23,000 wind turbines ran out of wind and most of the one million photovoltaic systems ran out of sunlight. For a whole week, coal nuclear and gas-powered plants generated an estimated 95 percent of Germany’s electricity.

Britain has 3,500 wind turbines, but during a period of extreme cold they produced just 1.8% of UK’s electricity. But, gluttons for punishment, politicians intend building more.

When electricity demand peaked at the height of the recent heatwave in Southern Australia, the total power output from the fleet of wind farms across Victoria and South Australia was almost zero. Solar panels worked at their peak for a short time during the heat of the afternoon, but waned as the sun moved on and smokiness increased.

At dinner time on any still, cold winter night, when all suburban stoves, lights, TV’s and heaters need power, solar panels sit in the dark, powerless. And the idle wind turbines are probably drawing power from the grid for heating, lubrication, electro-magnets, hydraulics and start-up.

Despite the expenditure of trillions of dollars on conferences, green energy subsidies, research, carbon taxes, carbon trading, solar and wind subsidies, plant construction, additional transmission lines and back-up power, wind and solar only produce a derisory share of world energy (“zero” if rounded to the nearest whole number).

We keep hearing how “research” will solve the key green energy problems, but no amount of research can alter the fact that solar energy will always be variable, intermittent and dilute.

Even if solar panels collected 100% of the solar energy that fell on them, and no dust or snow ever covered the panels, the output is always variable and intermittent, with the rise and fall of the sun, the long night and the variable clouds, snow and dust.

Similarly the wind is variable, often too weak, sometimes too strong, and even when it is just right, there may be no demand for that surge of power. Germany has 23,000 wind turbines – they produce an average of about 17% of their installed capacity; on some days, they harvest nothing except subsidies (and they are good at that).

And crucially, both wind and solar energy are very dilute, so large areas of land are required to collect significant energy and to build the spider-web of roads and transmission lines required to connect to each other and to the grid. Solar panels rob green plants underneath of their sunlight. Wind turbines annoy neighbours with their noise, devalue their properties and slice up eagles, bats and migrating birds. These are very significant human and environmental costs never mentioned by green energy disciples and promoters.

No amount of research can change the key intermittent and dilute nature of green energy. We should stop wasting ever-increasing amounts of money on pointless research.

Even if we invented magic batteries (small with massive capacity, low cost, no energy losses and everlasting life), the green energy plants would still need to spend over 60% of the energy they generate to charge the batteries in order to produce 24/7 power.

There are places when green energy is appropriate and useful, and people should be free to use it at their own expense. But for grid power, it is not fit-for-purpose.

All of this explains why Green Germany is now using more coal than it did in 2009 and its power supply is more expensive and less reliable.

World Energy Production   Cumulative
Carbon Fuels (Oil, Gas, Coal) 87%  87% 
Nuclear 5% 92%
Hydro 6% 98%
Wood, Waste, Cow Dung 2% 100%
Wind, Solar Too embarrassing to report 100%

(estimates – sources vary and none reports everything).

Useful Sources:

http://www.bp.com/energyoutlook

http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/archive/038411.pdf 

Viv Forbes is the Chairman of the Carbon Sense Coalition. He is a geologist, mineral economist, “political gadfly”, part time company director and full time sheep and cattle breeder. He has a Bachelor Degree in Applied Science (Geology).

via American Thinker – Blog: Green Energy Not Fit for the Grid

H/t to Andy Semple – Andy’s Rant!

•••

UPDATE

Land needed to replace all Coal, Natural Gas and Oil based electricity generation

Screen Shot 2013-12-08 at , December 8, 6.09.45 PM

Source : C3: UK Govt Reveals Incredible Land Waste From Solar & Wind Energy Facilities Versus Single Nuclear Plant

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Nuclear power vs wind farms: the infographic the Government doesn’t want you to see – Telegraph Blogs

•••

UPDATE

The Renewable Energy Vs. Fossil Fuel Subsidy Myth :

RENEWABLE SUBSIDIES v FOSSIL FUELS

Government burn $70 billion a year subsidizing renewables, and wild claims of “fossil fuel subsidies” debunked « JoNova

Global Energy Investment Vs. Energy Production :

RENEWABLES v FOSSIL FUELS - value for money

Data source : Rio+20 side event: A Green and Inclusive Economy – The Finance Ministers’ Perspective (UNEP)

•••

See also :

Wind / Solar Related :

Environmental Damage Caused By Renewable Energy:

Energy Related :

Quote source – The green Agenda


Establishing Propaganda Is Vital For Climate Action

It doesn’t matter what is true,
it only matters what people believe is true
.”
– Paul Watson,
co-founder of Greenpeace

We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world
.”
– Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment

JohnCookSkep190

(un)skeptical-science’s John Cook

In a recent article, Mike Hulme argued that the debate “needs to become more political, and less scientific”. We agree, because the scientific debate has moved on from the fundamentals – there is no scientific debate about the fact that the globe is warming from human greenhouse gas emissions. So we need to hammer out political solutions rather than “debating” well-established scientific facts. – John Cook

Establishing consensus is vital for climate action | The Conversation

•••

Memo to John Cook : There has been no atmospheric global warming, at all, over the past 17 years, despite 35% of all human CO2 emissions, since 1751, emitted over the same period.

No GLOBAL WARMING 17 YEARS 5 MONTHS

Satellites show no global warming for 17 years 5 months | Watts Up With That?

•••

Whilst Cook et al would prefer to talk politics to avoid the inconvenient global warming “Pause”, here are some well-established scientific facts …

Screen Shot 2014-02-09 at , February 9, 3.15.04 pm

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling : Nature : Nature Publishing Group

Screen Shot 2014-02-09 at , February 9, 3.18.07 pm

Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008 | PNAS

Screen Shot 2014-02-09 at , February 9, 3.20.49 pm

Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade : Nature Climate Change

Screen Shot 2014-02-09 at , February 9, 3.24.00 pm

Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group

 Screen Shot 2014-02-09 at , February 9, 3.32.58 pm

Climate change: The case of the missing heat : Nature News & Comment

•••
UPDATE
England et al.
Screen Shot 2014-02-15 at , February 15, 6.42.32 pm
Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group

•••

“The Oceans Ate My Global Warming” :

With no rise in atmospheric temps over the past 17 years, the latest bluff in climate alarmism is that the ‘missing heat’ is hiding at the bottom of the oceans. However, the first globally accurate network of measurement buoys (3000+ ARGO satellite buoys), which descend to depths of 2,000 metres, have detected no significant increase in ocean heat since deployment in 2003.

Kevin Trenberth theorises that missing heat takes a dive into deep oceans. “The oceans can at times soak up a lot of heat. Some goes into the deep oceans where it can stay for centuries [and where lamentably, there are no reliable temperature measurements].  But heat absorbed closer to the surface can easily flow back into the air.” Yet sea surface temperatures and the upper heat content didn’t increase over the last decade by enough to account for the “missing heat” that those greenhouse gas emissions should have trapped in the Earth’s climate system but couldn’t be found. (via Forbes)

screen-shot-2013-09-06-at-september-6-1-13-12-pm

Upper Ocean Heat Content Anomaly – NOAA

screen-shot-2013-09-06-at-september-6-1-20-23-pm

Global Marine Argo Atlas

•••

UPDATE :

Another alarmist excuse for the 17+ year “pause” in Global Warming has been ‘scientifically’ assassinated …. by none other than the doyens of ‘Global Warming’ hysteria ~ NASA, who now admit that the “Missing (atmospheric) heat” is NOT “Hiding in the deep oceans” after all !

Oh dear…

Screen Shot 2014-11-16 at , November 16, 2.59.44 pm

NASA Study Finds Earth’s Ocean Abyss Has Not Warmed | NASA

More from former NASA Climate Scientist Dr Roy Spencer :

NASA: The Deep Ocean Hasn’t Warmed Since 2005 (but we’re all gonna die)

October 6th, 2014 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

While still claiming that the results do not cast doubt on climate change, a new NASA press release says that the global oceans below 2,000 meters depth haven’t warmed since 2005. This is the period that we have had the deep oceans reasonably well sampled with thousands of globally-distributed Argo floats.

The thing that annoys me about such press releases is the obligatory disclaimer (no doubt crafted so that “skeptics” don’t have a field day with the press release):

“Study coauthor Josh Willis of JPL said these findings do not throw suspicion on climate change itself.”

Such statements have the usual vagueness that allows the True Believers to interpret it any way they want.

Does it mean: “It doesn’t throw suspicion on Al Gore’s impending thermogeddon”?

Or does it mean: “It doesn’t throw suspicion on the fact that climate has always changed, and always will change, with or without the help of humans”?

Or maybe something in between?

You see, as long as the IPCC gets away with basing alarmist rhetoric upon factually benign statements, like over half of the warming since the 1950s has been human induced (yawn), the global warming debate will remain dominated by extremists.

And this allows politicians to get away with saying whatever they want. Scientists are so vague that their statements can be used in a wide variety of ways that help the politician.

NASA: The Deep Ocean Hasn’t Warmed Since 2005 (but we’re all gonna die) « Roy Spencer, PhD

•••

From the well-established scientific fact that there has been no global warming, at all, for the past 17 years, it’s not hard to see why Cook and the global warming climate change cult believe the debate “needs to become more political, and less scientific”.

Global Warming was never about ‘science‘. It was always about Power, Money and Overpopulation.

•••

A little humour on Cooky …

•••

UPDATE

No global warming for 17 years, 6 months

Posted on WUWT March 4, 2014 by 
Seventeen and a half years. Not a flicker of global warming. The RSS satellite record, the first of the five global-temperature datasets to report its February value, shows a zero trend for an impressive 210 months. Miss Brevis, send a postcard to Mr Gore:
clip_image002_thumb
•••
UPDATE
Make that 18 years and 4 months, or now a “pause” of global warming lasting for more than half the entire satellite record:
GW Pause 18 years 4 months
El Niño or ñot, the Pause lengthens again | Watts Up With That?
•••
UPDATE
The latest “peer-reviewed” global warming “pause” update from Nature journal:
Screen Shot 2015-04-24 at , April 24, 7.48.56 am
Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group
•••
UPDATE
via Andrew Bolt :

Warmists who denied the pause now claim to explain it

•••
See Also :

John Cook’s Bogus “97%” Climate Consensus Survey related :

John Cook Misc. :

Climatism Related :