UN-Settled Science

Recent warming coincides with rapid growth of human-made greenhouse gases. The observed rapid warming gives urgency to discussions about how to slow greenhouse gas emissions.” – James Hansen

The pace of global warming is accelerating and the scale of the impact is devastating. The time for action is limited – we are approaching a tipping point beyond which the opportunity to reverse the damage of CO2 emissions will disappear.” – Eliot Spitzer

“Climate change is a global problem. The planet is warming because of the growing level of greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. If this trend continues, truly catastrophic consequences are likely to ensue from rising sea levels, to reduced water availability, to more heat waves and fires.” – Malcolm Turnbull

•••

We are on the verge of a global transformation.
All we need is the right major crisis
…”
– David Rockefeller,
Club of Rome executive member

•••

Screen Shot 2013-08-26 at , August 26, 12.22.16 PM

UN Charts ‘Unprecedented’ Global Warming Since 2000 – Bloomberg July 3 2013

Global Warming alarmists tell us that the world is heating at an unprecedented rate due to the unprecedented output of human greenhouse gas emissions.

True, global emissions have risen sharply since the post World War II industrial boom from 1945 onwards, and at an unprecedented rate over the past 15 years due largely to the China and SE Asian industrial booms. However, the dramatic increase in global GHG industrial emissions has not been accompanied by the UN IPCC’s predicted rise in global surface temperatures over the past 15 years, at all.

Hundreds of millions of dollars that have gone into the expensive climate modelling enterprise has all but destroyed governmental funding of research into natural sources of climate change. For years the modelers have maintained that there is no such thing as natural climate change…yet they now, ironically, have to invoke natural climate forces to explain why surface warming has essentially stopped in the last 15 years! — Dr Roy Spencer

CMIP5-73-models-vs-obs-20N-20S-MT-5-yr-means1

Epic Fail: 73 Climate Models vs. Measurements, Running 5-Year Means

China emits a quarter of the world’s industrial emissions, with its CO2 output having increased by around 300% from 1998 to 2011. Total world CO2 emissions have increased by around 30% over the same period:

Screen Shot 2013-08-26 at , August 26, 11.19.18 PM

International Energy Statistics

THE GLOBAL WARMING HYPOTHESIS

A hypothesis that cannot be falsified by empirical observations, is not science. The current hypothesis on anthropogenic global warming (AGW), as presented by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is that CO2 emissions should be directly and indirectly trapping a certain amount of heat in the earth’s atmosphere and preventing it from escaping into space.

Albert Einstein once said, “No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong.”  Einstein’s words express a foundational principle of science intoned by the logician, Karl Popper: Falsifiability. In order to verify a hypothesis there must be a test by which it can be proved false. A thousand observations may appear to verify a hypothesis, but one critical failure could result in its demise.

MEASURING GLOBAL WARMING

Although temperature is not a measurement of ‘heat’ in the climate system, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), former directer James Hansen, and the British Hadley Centre for Climate Change, have consistently promoted the use of surface temperature as a metric for global warming. The highly publicised, monthly global surface temperature has become an icon of AGW alarmist projections made by the IPCC.

Atmospheric surface temps have been used and marketed since the end of the last global cooling phase from 1945-1976 and explicitly through the 1990′s as the definitive measure of ‘theorised’ human-induced (anthropogenic) global warming.

The warming through the 1980′s and 90′s, that gave birth to the man-made global warming scare, has been theorised as a result of the steady increase in human greenhouse gas emissions.

THE CRITICAL FAILURE?

OVER the past 15 years air temperatures at the Earth’s surface have been flat while greenhouse-gas emissions have continued to soar. This has become one the biggest mysteries and most controversial issues in climate science today, throwing doubt over the assumed climate sensitivity to CO2.

The distinct lack of any warming has compromised greatly the ability of climate models to accurately predict short and long-term climate trends, and in my opinion goes a long way toward the ‘critical failure’ that falsifies the very hypothesis and foundation of the anthropogenic global warming theory.

AGW FALSIFIED?

Satellite temperature records on six different data sets show that there has been no atmospheric global warming since 1998 or any statistically-significant warming for between 18 and 23 years. A distinct lack of any warming evident, despite a dramatic rise in industrial greenhouse gas emissions over the same period:
SIX DIFFERENT DATA SETS - GLOBAL TEMP

WoodForTrees.org 

Peer-Reviewed studies that confirm the lack of any global warming since 1998:

•••

PRIMARY DRIVER OF GLOBAL TEMP/CLIMATE CHANGE?

A Study by the U.N. panel of experts, due to be published next month, say it is at least 95 percent likely that human activities – chiefly the burning of fossil fuels – are the main cause of warming since the 1950s.

WattsUpWithThat on the IPCC AR5 leaked findings:

When somebody hits you with that new ‘IPCC is 95% certain’ talking point on global warming, show them this

Here is the statement again, emphasis mine:

Drafts seen by Reuters of the study by the U.N. panel of experts, due to be published next month, say it is at least 95 percent likely that human activities – chiefly the burning of fossil fuels – are the main cause of warming since the 1950s.

OK, so here’s the 64 thousand dollar questions for IPCC cheerleaders:

  1. Which side is which time period?
  2. What caused the warming before CO2 became an issue to be essentially identical to the period when it is claimed to be the main driver?
  3. How is the IPCC 95% certain one side is caused by man and the other is not?

1895-1946_1957-2008_temperature-compare

Early warming period 1917-1944 (280-300 ppm CO2) had the same rate of warming (with less CO2) as late warming period 1976-2012 (350-400 ppm CO2):

observed warming rates

The case against CO2 – 100 years of temperature change: After 50 years, 1961 had a greater mean temperature increase with less CO2:

CASE AGAINST CO2

Last 100 Years of CO2 & Temperatures: The IPCC’s HadCRUT Data Confirms CO²’s Small Impact On Global Warming

The UN IPCC claim humans 0.0012% or 12 parts per million addition of CO2 into the total atmosphere (versus natures 97%) is driving temp/climate change and potential CAGW. Their workings discount natural influences; solar radiation, clouds, volcanic eruptions, ocean currents PDO/AMO as having any real effect on the climate. The IPCC’s original brief by UNEP & WMO was to isolate the effect and human fingerprint of only human CO2 emissions and NOT natural variation. 20 years on and $100 Billion later, the IPCC is still yet to find the global signature of human CO2. See missing hotspot »

Sceptical scientists and climate realists, contest natural variation; solar magnetic effects, volcanic eruptions, solar irradiance, ozone depletion, ocean currents PDO/AMO, clouds, all play a much more significant role in the climate system.

•••

PRIMARY DRIVERS OF GLOBAL CHANGE?

‘Club Of Rome’ an environmental think-tank and consultants to the United Nations (founders of the IPCC), published these thoughts in their 1991 book The First Global Revolution:

The common enemy of humanity is man.
In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up
with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming,
water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill. All these
dangers are caused by human intervention, and it is only through
changed attitudes and behaviour that they can be overcome.
The real enemy then, is humanity itself
.”

The First Global Revolution 

Founder of the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) Maurice Strong:

Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the
industrialised civilisations collapse?
Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about
?”
– Maurice Strong

Current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the
affluent middle class – involving high meat intake,
use of fossil fuels, appliances, air-conditioning,
and suburban housing – are not sustainable.

– Maurice Strong, Rio Earth Summit

UNEP Promoting Sustainable Human Settlement/Habitat Development Zones

UN Agenda 21 – global action plan for sustainable development into the 21st century: 238 Australian councils currently operate UN’s Agenda 21 Sustainable Development program through ICLEI Oceania:

Effective execution of Agenda 21 will require a profound
reorientation of all human society, unlike anything the world
has ever experienced a major shift in the priorities of both
governments and individuals and an unprecedented
redeployment of human and financial resources. This shift
will demand that a concern for the environmental consequences
of every human action be integrated into individual and
collective decision-making at every level.

– UN Agenda 21

The UN’s goal of de-industrialising the world by limiting the use of carbon based energies (whilst offering no viable alternatives) embodied here by Timothy Wirth, President of the UN Foundation:

We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth

Timothy Wirth is a follower of the teachings Thomas Malthus, the British economist who predicted in 1789 that the planet’s rapid increase in population would soon outstrip the planet’s ability to produce food resulting in massive worldwide starvation.

Upon Wirth’s election to Congress in 1974, he asked: “Are we going to blow ourselves off the face of the globe or are we going to propagate ourselves off the face of the globe?”

The science of global warming means little to AGW zealots who use the guise of environmentalism to pursue radical ideological, social and political change:

No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world
.”
– Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment

•••

Every true genius is bound to be naive …

“If Margaret Thatcher took climate change seriously and believed that we should take action to reduce global greenhouse emissions, then taking action and supporting and accepting the science can hardly be the mark of incipient Bolshevism.” –  Malcolm Turnbull

•••

ATMOSPHERIC Physicist, MIT Professor of Meteorology and former IPCC lead author Richard S. Lindzen, examines the politics and ideology behind the CO2-centricity that beleaguers the man-made climate change agenda. His summary goes to the very heart of why Carbon Dioxide has become the centre-piece of the ‘global’ climate debate:

“CO2 for different people has different attractions. After all, what is it? – it’s not a pollutant, it’s a product of every living creature’s breathing, it’s the product of all plant respiration, it is essential for plant life and photosynthesis, it’s a product of all industrial burning, it’s a product of driving – I mean, if you ever wanted a leverage point to control everything from exhalation to driving, this would be a dream. So it has a kind of fundamental attractiveness to bureaucratic mentality.”

Related:

Afterthought: If mother nature emits 97% of Carbon Dioxide into the atmosphere, does that mean she emits 97% ‘Carbon Pollution’?


Carbon Dioxide and Floods

The only way to get our society to truly change is to
frighten people with the possibility of a catastrophe
.”
– emeritus professor Daniel Botkin

Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the
industrialized civilizations collapse?
Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about
?”
– Maurice Strong,
founder of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)

We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

•••

Climate alarmists insist that CO2 is the “climate control knob” that ultimately exacerbates extreme weather events….

Let’s test that hypothesis where “extreme” floods are concerned…

2013 : Carbon Dioxide At 400 Parts Per Million :

Screen Shot 2013-08-26 at , August 26, 10.30.51 AM

China Floods Kill At Least 31 People, 166 Missing – Huffington Post

•••

1931 : Carbon Dioxide At 310 Parts Per Million :
ScreenHunter_400 Aug. 25 18.54

16 Nov 1931 – CHINA FLOOD THE RELIEF APPEAL. 50,000,000 PERSONS HOMELESS

Huffington Post (pending) Comments:

 Screen Shot 2013-08-26 at , August 26, 10.28.33 AM

•••

1888 : Carbon Dioxide Under 310 Parts Per Million:

ARGUS

Page 6

1888 : Low CO2 Floods Kill Hundreds Of Thousands Of People In China

http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/6100646

•••

More via Steven Goddard :

Climate Attribution Finally Achieved

Posted on Real Science April 7, 2013 by 

This car is responsible for the 1931 floods which killed two million people in China.

ScreenHunter_93 Apr. 07 09.06 Below350.org Below350.orghttp://news.google.com/newspapers

•••

UPDATE

via Steven Goddard :

Deadliest 15 Floods In History Occurred With CO2 Below 350 PPM

Obama says that floods are getting worse due to global warming, but as is always the case, he has absolutely no clue what he is talking about. A storm surge in the year 1530 killed more than 1,000 times as many people as Sandy’s storm surge.

Extreme floods below 250


RSS Flat For 200 Months (Now Includes July Data)

  • On six different data sets, there has been no statistically significant warming for between 18 and 23 years, despite record and rapidly increasing ‘carbon pollution’ emissions over the same period.
  • Is the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming really ‘settled’?

SIX DIFFERENT DATA SETS - GLOBAL TEMP

Watts Up With That?

[NOTE: RSS is a satellite temperature data set much like the UAH dataset from Dr. Roy Spencer and John Christy – Anthony]

Image Credit: WoodForTrees.org

Guest Post By Werner Brozek, Edited By Just The Facts

The graphic above shows 3 lines. The long line shows that RSS has been flat from December 1996 to July 2013, which is a period of 16 years and 8 months or 200 months. The other slightly higher flat line in the middle is the latest complete decade of 120 months from January 2001 to December 2010. The other slightly downward sloping line is the latest 120 months prior from present. It very clearly shows it has been cooling lately, however this cooling is not statistically significant.
In my opinion, if you want to find out what the temperatures are doing over the last 10 or 16 years on any data set, you should find…

View original post 2,922 more words


SHOCK NEWS! Climate Change Causing Climate Models to Fail

The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations
on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models
.”
– Prof. Chris Folland,
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

The models are convenient fictions
that provide something very useful
.”
– Dr David Frame,
climate modeler, Oxford University

Post image for Is Climate Change Causing Climate Models to Fail?

Via GlobalWarming.org

STUDY: Climate change causing climate models to become less reliable

A groundbreaking new study has shown that climate change is the underlying cause of increasingly frequent and severe climate model failures. Researchers at Pennsylvania State Community College have discovered a critical link between atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration and general circulation model errors.

“Climate change has made it increasingly difficult to predict climate change,” says Dr. Manyard Michael, the lead scientist behind the study. “The current 16 year pause in global warming illustrates just how serious this situation has been; if not for climate change, we now know that we would have been able to accurately predict the current break in warming and clearly show that climate change is actually accelerating faster than forecast – not stopping as climate change is making it appear to those outside of the climate science community.” Dr. Michael also noted that they stumbled on this important finding almost by accident. “We just happened to notice that the higher carbon dioxide concentrations climbed, the more we had to adjust the data to get the results we knew to be right, and the more we adjusted the data, the bigger the error in the models. It’s a very strong positive feedback.”

This research has been quietly in the works for several years, and was almost compromised by the 2009 research theft known as “climategate.” For example, one particular email that has been cited repeatedly said in part, “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” Skeptics have misrepresented this quote to suggest that climate scientists can’t explain why the climate is not behaving as forecast and thus there is no climate change happening when in actuality, the researcher was lamenting exactly the opposite. He knew the fact that climate models did not predict a lack of warming meant climate change had progressed much faster than previously thought, and he was expressing sadness that man has brought the climate to this point.

Climate change deniers and anti-science websites have long grasped at the seemingly endless string of model failures and ever increasing forecast error as a way to argue the theory that humans are causing global warming is somehow falsified. Noted climate modeler Dr. Hans Jameson of the National Model Rocket Association commented, “thanks to this research, we can say with certainty what we in the climate research community [have] known all along, that the bigger the climate model errors, the more confident we can be that manmade climate change is happening.” Because climate change continues to accelerate faster than at any time since before the dinosaurs, the scientific consensus is that that there will be some truly stunning model failures on the horizon.

The researchers also stressed that mainstream climate science has demonstrated a remarkable ability to hindcast. As Dr. Michael points out “we can now predict the lull in warming of the past 16 years with surprising accuracy.” He further remarked that “given how well we can predict the past, the only thing that explains the difficulty of forecasting the future with equal success is the increasing concentration of greenhouse gasses. This research changes everything.” And while they are yet unable to fully explain the exact mechanics behind the correlation, the researchers expressed 99% confidence in their conclusion.

The study which is set to be published in every scientific journal is expected to open up new areas of unprecedented spending in the emerging field of climate research research.*

* Editor’s note: The phrase “climate research research” is not a typo. With Dr. Michael’s study, the greenhouse theory has matured to the point where it can not only explain climate-related phenomena, but also its own apparent inability to explain such phenomena. Craig might also have called Dr. Michael’s study meta-climatology or climatolology. Sort of like the all-seeing eye that can see even itself.

If you find that confusing, then just look at the diagram below:

Eye of Agamatto

 

* This hilarious yet 100% true parody of the outright failure of climate models was a comment posted on Anthony Watt’s blog, Watts Up With Thatby reader identified as “Craig”.

 

Related:  Modelling Climate Alarmism