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Modelling Climate Alarmism

The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models.” – Prof. Chris Folland, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

The models are convenient fictions that provide something very useful.” – Dr David Frame, climate modeler, Oxford University

•••

98% 99% of climate models say that 97% of climate scientists are wrong.

Model FAIL

CMIP5-73-models-vs-obs-20N-20S-MT-5-yr-means1

Dr Roy Spencer:

STILL Epic Fail: 73 Climate Models vs. Measurements, Running 5-Year Means

June 6th, 2013 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

In this case, the models and observations have been plotted so that their respective 1979-2012 trend lines all intersect in 1979, which we believe is the most meaningful way to simultaneously plot the models’ results for comparison to the observations.

In my opinion, the day of reckoning has arrived. The modellers and the IPCC have willingly ignored the evidence for low climate sensitivity for many years, despite the fact that some of us have shown that simply confusing cause and effect when examining cloud and temperature variations can totally mislead you on cloud feedbacks (e.g. Spencer & Braswell, 2010). The discrepancy between models and observations is not a new issue…just one that is becoming more glaring over time.

It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out in the coming years. I frankly don’t see how the IPCC can keep claiming that the models are “not inconsistent with” the observations. Any sane person can see otherwise. Keep reading »

 

Joanne Nova:

Even with the best models, warmest decades, most CO²: Models are proven failures:

This beautiful graph was posted at Roy Spencer’s and WattsUp, and no skeptic should miss it. I’m not sure if everyone appreciates just how piquant, complete and utter the failure is here. There are no excuses left. This is as good as it gets for climate modelers in 2013.

John Christy used the best and latest models, he used all the models available, he has graphed the period of the fastest warming and during the times humans have emitted the most CO2. This is also the best data we have. If ever any model was to show the smallest skill, this would be it. None do. Keep reading »

 

WattsUpWithThat:

Climate modeling EPIC FAIL – Spencer: ‘the day of reckoning has arrived’

I was aware of this story yesterday, but I didn’t like the original plot, (see at the end of this post) since use of straight line linear trends doesn’t accurately reflect the reality of the observation data. While it is often hard to find any reality in climate models, linear trend lines mask the underlying variance. Today, Dr. Spencer has produced a graph that I feel is representative and very well worth sharing, because it does in fact convey an EPIC FAIL speaking directly to the accuracy of an ensemble of climate models. – Anthony Keep reading »

•••

‘Forecasting’ Climate Alarmism with 73 IPCC CMIP5 state-of-the-art, billion dollar climate models:

Using overheated climate models in scientific studies, to generate climate forecasts and outcomes, creates a problem of accuracy as projections are based on unverifiable predictive models which do not accord with observed reality. Findings are invariably exaggerated by a warming bias leading to panic and costly climate policy overreach.

Media outlets like the Guardian and BBC, promulgating the CO²-centric global warming scare, take full advantage of the warming bias with often catastrophic and alarmist headlines:

Screen Shot 2013-08-15 at , August 15, 5.17.54 PM

Heatwave deaths in New York city could rise by up to 22%, study shows ~ New temperature norms under climate change will increase weather-related deaths in metropolitan areas in coming decades. New York city could experience up to 22% more deaths from extreme summertime heat in the coming decade under global warming, according to a study of the impact of climate trends. Keep reading »

Climate model astrology (above) versus observable trends based on empirical-evidence:

screenhunter_342-dec-12-06-29 (1)

Heatwaves Peaked In Manhattan During The 1950s

UPDATE

73 ‘overheated’ climate models predict within 87 years, most of America will be ‘partially’ underwater:

More than 1,700 U.S. cities will be partially underwater by 2100: study

Forecast Flashback:

1979 : NCAR Forecast 15-25 Feet Of Sea Level Rise By The Year 2000

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The Palm Beach Post – Google News Archive Search

Since that forecast was made in 1979, tide gauges in California show 0.00 cm of sea-level-rise. Schneider was only off by a factor of infinity.

LA SLR

UPDATE

Geologist Dr. Don Easterbrook debunks ‘absurd’ new warmist study claiming 1,700 U.S. cities will be below sea level by 2100 — Easterbrook: ‘The rate used by [Lead Author] Strauss for his predictions is more than 10 times the rate over the past century!’

Easterbrook: ‘The accelerated rise is based on postulated accelerated warming but there has been no warming in the past 15 years and, in fact, the climate has cooled during that time. So no climatic warming means no accelerated sea level rise as postulated by Strauss…the huge rise of sea level rates proposed by Strauss are absurd and that the maximum sea level rise by 2100 will be less than one foot’ Keep reading »

UPDATE

via JoanneNova.com

WARNING: Using a different computer could change the climate catastrophe

How bad are these global forecast models?

When the same model code with the same data is run in a different computing environment (hardware, operating system, compiler, libraries, optimizer), the results can differ significantly. So even if reviewers or critics obtained a climate model, they could not replicate the results without knowing exactly what computing environment the model was originally run in. Keep reading »

UPDATE

via NoTricksZone

12-Minute Video Clip Clearly Shows Why “Climate Models Are Fundamentally Flawed”!

By P Gosselin on 6. August 2013

Hard fact: global temperature has not risen as the models predicted – not even close! Conclusion: models are fundamentally flawed. Watch the following well-done video:

Hat-tip: Rog Tallbloke & NoTricksZone

UPDATE

via JoanneNova.com

Climate Models cannot explain why global warming has slowed

 

Finally climate scientists are starting to ask how the models need to change in order to fit the data. Hans von Storch, Eduardo Zorita and authors in Germany pointedly acknowledge that even at the 2% confidence level the model predictions don’t match reality. The fact is, the model simulations predicted it would get warmer than it has from 1998-2012. Now some climate scientists admit that there is less than a 2% chance that the models are compatible with the 15-year warming pause, according to the assumptions in the models. Keep reading »

UPDATE

via WattsUpWithThat

Current Crop of Computer Models “Close to Useless”

Knobs for climate control Image: Wikipedia

From the Institute for Energy Research:

It is this second class of models, the economic/climate hybrids called Integrated Assessment Models, that Pindyck discusses. Pindyck’s paper is titled, “Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?” Here is his shocking answer, contained in the abstract: 

Very little. A plethora of integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been constructed and used to estimate the social cost of carbon (SCC) and evaluate alternative abatement policies. These models have crucial flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis: Keep reading »

UPDATE

via WattsUpWithThat

National Academy of Sciences: climate models still ‘decades away’ from being useful

Climate Model: resolution still too coarse to provide useful predictions

From the National Academy of Sciences report A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling: 

Computer models that simulate the climate are an integral part of providing climate information, in particular for future changes in the climate. Overall, climate modeling has made enormous progress in the past several decades, but meeting the information needs of users will require further advances in the coming decades.

 

climate-model-1[1]The fundamental science of greenhouse gas-induced climate change is simple and compelling. However, genuine and important uncertainties remain (e.g., the response of clouds,
ecosystems, and the polar regions) and need to be considered in developing scientifically based strategies for societal response to climate change.

 

Description:

As climate change has pushed climate patterns outside of historic norms, the need for detailed projections is growing across all sectors, including agriculture, insurance, and emergency preparedness planning. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modelingemphasizes the needs for climate models to evolve substantially in order to deliver climate projections at the scale and level of detail desired by decision makers, this report finds. Despite much recent progress in developing reliable climate models, there are still efficiencies to be gained across the large and diverse U.S. climate modeling community. Evolving to a more unified climate modeling enterprise-in particular by developing a common software infrastructure shared by all climate researchers and holding an annual climate modeling forum-could help speed progress. Keep reading »

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Milestone Reached : No Current School Child Has Experienced Global Warming

Real Science

There has been no global warming for 17 years, which means that none of the 17 year old seniors starting school this week have experienced any global warming during their lifetime.

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Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

They have however been endlessly propagandized by lies from Al Gore, Barack Obama and many others.

View original post


The Angry Summer

We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world
.”
– Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment

It doesn’t matter what is true,
it only matters what people believe is true
.”
– Paul Watson,
co-founder of Greenpeace

Via Joannenova.com

Hottest summer record in Australia? Not so, says UAH satellite data

There are probably only ten people in Australia who haven’t heard it was the Hottest Ever, Record Summer Downunder. And they were probably born yesterday.

Summer here was so scorchingly awful it was Angry. But a funny thing happened on the orbit overhead. Check out the UAH satellite data on summers since the UAH records began.  The graph below (thanks to Ken) is the temperature data from the NASA satellites, processed by UAH (University of Alabama in Huntsville). Strangely there is a disparity between what the satellites recorded and the BOM.

The satellite data shows that the summer of 2012-2013 was close to ordinary, compared with the entire satellite record going back to 1979. Not a record. Not even extreme?

According to UAH satellite measurements summer in early 2013 was not a record. Not even close.

The graph data comes thanks to John Christy, Director, Earth System Science Center, Distinguished Professor, Atmospheric Science
University of Alabama in Huntsville, Alabama State Climatologist and Roy Spencer. It was graphed by Ken Stewart at KensKingdom,and inspired by Tom Quirk at Quadrant. I was very happy to connect them this weekend. The data cover “average lower troposphere temperature anomalies for land grids only for the region 10S-40S by 110E-155E.” UPDATE: The data in the graph above does include Tasmania as well, and does not include PNG or Timor.

Perhaps there is some error in the data? But on Ken’s site, you can see he gets a reasonably close correlation for most points with ACORN.

As Ken says:

According to BOM, last summer was a record, yet the satellites say it was pretty ordinary- 14thwarmest out of the last 35.  The last time there was such a large discrepancy was 1983- the two series since then have been reasonably similar.

Ken Stewart compared the UAH summer record to the BOM one.

Note though that the other large discrepancy was 1983 which was also a year when the BOM records a very high temperature, and UAH records an average one. Perhaps that is a clue?

The UAH data is not covering the same area as the BOM stats do.

There is no Tasmanian data, and while a lot of surrounding ocean is included in the longitude and latitude, the UAH data is for land-grids only. The black rectangle marks the land covered in the UAH satellite data.

UPDATE: John Christy sent a second set of data to Ken that does include Tasmania and doesn’t include Indonesia and PNG.  I will update the graphic below as soon as I can. The UAH data is more accurate than I thought.

...

Even if the UAH data included some ocean stats leaking into the mix, according to the BOM the ocean was the hottest on record in any case.

The Age quotes the BOM telling us that seas weren’t just warm, and it wasn’t just one month. It was the hottest, and it was all of summer:

Seas around Australia are also warmer than usual, with surface temperatures reaching record highs at the end of February,according to a Special Climate Statement issued by the Bureau of Meteorology in the wake of this month’s heatwave across south-eastern Australia.

Summer sea temperatures were 0.5 degrees above normal and the warmest since records began in 1900, the bureau said.

The Australian BOM says: “Summer ocean surface temperatures around Australia were the highest on record. (March 12)
Note the warm water surrounding the Western and Southern coasts on the latest ENSO map (below).
[Source: BOM ENSO page] March12 2013.

Warwick Hughes sharply spotted that data from NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center didn’t agree either that 2013 was a record summer (though it comes in second). He downloaded and graphed the gridded data from CPC GHCN/CAMS t2m (45°South to 10°South and 110°East to 155°East).  While their difference between CAMS and the BOM were small in 2013, there was a difference in the trends, and CAMS shows that 1983 was the hottest ever, and that 2013 was second, and was almost identical to 1973, 1998, and 1991. (Does NCEP use some Australian BOM surface data?)

Hottest ever media hype?

The BOM have been issuing “hottest summer in Australia ever” announcements for two weeks, even practically before the summer was over. The Angry Summer has been all over the press, especially with this graph.

Despite the title this graph includes the 2013 record high.

Did the BOM plot the UAH comparison? Can they explain the discrepancy?

Even if there is some explanation, the BOM is not giving Australians any indication of how difficult, complex, and questionable these continent wide “records” are. Few of the public would realize that the record depended on tricky and sometimes unpublished methods, on subjective choices made in weighting areas, and subjective decisions on how to adjust individual records.

How many Australians know that “records” could vary with other methods of estimating average temperatures? Or that other data sets managed by other climate experts might not agree?

Can anyone spot an investigative journalist?

Did anyone ask the BOM if there are other ways to calculate “the average temperature of the country”? Did anyone enquire as to whether they had looked at satellite data as well?

 

Related posts:

See Also: Climate queries? Ask a paleontologist

UPDATE

From Real Science:

Al Gore Uses A Giant Rat With A Water Bottle To Prove Global Warming

Posted on August 14, 2013by 

ScreenHunter_209 Aug. 14 07.25

Al Gore’s Climate Leadership Training kept me riveted and inspired | The Vancouver Observer

97% of sociologists believe that Australia never had fires prior to the invention of the SUV.

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