Imminent Arctic Ice Death SpiralPosted: July 22, 2013
“A massive campaign must be launched to de-develop the United States. De-development means bringing our economic system into line with the realities of ecology and the world resource situation.”
– Paul Ehrlich, Professor of Population Studies.
In May, the Obama White House was warned on imminent Arctic ice death spiral.
National security officials worried by rapid loss of Arctic summer sea ice overlook threat of permanent global food shortages.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected in 2007:
“The Arctic situation is snowballing: dangerous changes in the Arctic derived from accumulated anthropogenic green house gases lead to more activities conducive to further greenhouse gas emissions. This situation has the momentum of a runaway train.“
The repercussions for humanity are alarming according to Government officials:
US officials are increasingly concerned about the international and domestic security implications of climate change.
“..profound shifts may be increasing the likelihood of more persistent and extreme weather.”
Department of Defense (DoD) Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap warns global warming will have:
“… significant geopolitical impacts around the world, contributing to greater competition for more limited and critical life-sustaining resources like food and water.”
“..World food production can be expected to decline, with mass starvation inevitable. The price of food will rise inexorably, producing global unrest and making food security even more of an issue.”
“Act as accelerants of instability or conflict in parts of the world… [and] may also lead to increased demands for defense support to civil authorities for humanitarian assistance or disaster response, both within the United States and overseas..”
The Arctic ice ‘death spiral’ is so dire, regional military penetration must be mobilised in order for the US to protect its resource interests:
“Melting sea ice in the Arctic may lead to new opportunities for shipping, tourism, and resource exploration, but the increase in human activity may require a significant increase in operational capabilities in the region in order to safeguard lawful trade and travel and to prevent exploitation of new routes for smuggling and trafficking.”
Climatologist, author and former NASA scientist Dr Roy Spencer provides an evidence-based account of the unprecedented and dramatic Arctic ice death spiral…
Who Dares to Deny Arctic Warming?
June 17th, 2013 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
I have in my possession a copy of one of the most authoritative books ever written on Arctic sea ice, including a section on the warming of the Arctic. It is written by one of the pioneering researchers in Arctic sea ice, N.N Zubov, a Russian, who spent his career studying the Arctic region.
His observations of warming in the Arctic, which he described as not localized, but universal, are taken from his book entitled Arctic Ice. I have excerpted several pertinent passages, which I’m sure will convince you that warming of the Arctic can scarcely be denied:
Along with the fluctuations in ice abundance in each individual sea from year to year, in late years a most interesting phenomenon has been observed – a warming of the Arctic, as evidence by a gradual and universal decrease in ice abundance. The main evidence of this general warming of the Arctic are:
1. Receding of glaciers and “melting away” of islands….all the Greenland glaciers which descend into Northeast Bay and Disko Bay have been receding since approximately the beginning of the century. On Franz Joseph Land during recent years several islands have appeared as if broken in two. It turned out they had been connected up to that time by ice bridges. …I noted a great decrease in the size of (Jan Mayan and Spitzbergen) glaciers. Ahlman terms the rapid receding of the Spitzbergen glaciers “catastrophic”.
2. Rise of air temperature. (Over the last 20 years) the average temperature of the winter months has steadily increased…(in the last 10 years) in the whole Arctic sector from Greenland to Cape Chelyuskin there has not been a single (negative) anomaly of average annual and monthly winter temperatures, while the positive anomalies have been very high….
3. Rise in temperature of Atlantic water which enters the Arctic Basin…the temperature of surface water and of Gulf Stream water has steadily risen…
4. Decrease in ice abundance….15% to 20% (over 20 years)….In earlier times, polar ice often approached the shores of Iceland and interfered with fishing and navigation. For the past 25 years ice has not appeared in significant quantities.
5. Increase in speed of drift ice.
6. Change in cyclone routes. There is no doubt that the increase in air temperatures, increase in Atlantic water temperatures, intensification of ice drift, etc., are closely connected with an intensification of atmospheric circulation, and in particular with a change in cyclonic activity at high latitudes. Vize shows that Atlantic cyclones are now shifting considerably north, by several hundred km, from their courses in the period before the warming of the Arctic.
7. Biological signs of warming of the Arctic. …fish have ranged further and further to the north…cod in large quantities have appeared along the shores of Spitzbergen and Novaya Zemlya…also mackerel, dolphin where formerly were not found…during recent years fishing has gradually shifted into the Arctic waters, and this unquestionably must be ascribed in considerable degree to the warming of these waters….many heat-loving bottom organisms are now found in regions these organisms were not found (30 years ago). Knipovich says: “ In a matter of fifteen years…there occurred a change…such as is usually associated with long geological intervals”.
8. Ship navigation. …a number of ship voyages (were made) which could hardly have been accomplished in the preceding cold period.
Still more remarkable is the fact that the warming of the Arctic is not confined to any particular region.
I find these observations to be quite compelling evidence that warming of the Arctic is indeed unprecedented. Who would dare deny it? Clearly, we must do something about our carbon dioxide emissions!!
NOTE: Oh, silly me. This book was written in the late 1930′s. Nevermind.
Russian Professor and Doctor of geographical sciences N.N. Zubov died in 1960. His book “ARCTIC ICE” was published in 1963 and was written in the late 1930′s, well before human carbon dioxide emissions could have had any discernible effect on arctic or global climate change. Any such anthropogenic effect on climate is attributed to the post world war 2 industrial boom (1945 to present) where human CO² emissions increased rapidly. Paradoxically, from 1945-1978 the globe underwent a period of global cooling despite the dramatic rise in green-house gas emissions.
From Zubov’s empirical evidence and observations it appears dramatic short-term regional and global climatic changes can and do occur irrespective of atmospheric CO² concentration.
Over the past 15 years, the earth’s atmosphere has undergone a similar temperature stasis, despite human CO² soaring over the same period. The current lack of any significant global warming since 1998 has the scientific community baffled and casts doubt on the accuracy of all 73 IPCC CMIP5 climate models, none of which predicted the current warming stasis.
The gap between modelled and observed global temperatures expose serious flaws in the climate models and their ability to credibly direct any rational climate policy measures such as Carbon Taxes, Emission trading schemes and alternative energies.
IPCC hadCRUT dataset showing a global cooling trend since 2002 of -0.87°C/century, despite soaring CO² emissions.
Despite the current 15 year temperature stasis and even slight, though statistically insignificant, global cooling over the past 11 years, climate doomsayers will continue to ratchet up the alarmist fear mongering campaign. Their goal, to bring about sweeping energy reforms and emissions control policies that will ultimately threaten economic development. Such draconian measures are already effecting economic competitiveness, jobs, social development and especially societies most vulnerable and poor with no discernible reduction to global emissions envisaged.
PAIN A LOT WORSE THAN ANY GAIN
Benny Peiser, special to Financial Post, comments on Europe’s 20 year green central planning ideology of ‘limits to growth’ that has turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy in ‘The EU Green Hell’
ARCTIC CONDITIONS TODAY
Arctic sea ice continues to recover from 2012 lows to above average levels in 2013.
• Beaufort Sea ice area currently above normal.
• According to Environmental Canada the Western Arctic has the third highest July ice coverage in history.
Imminent Arctic ice death spiral alarmism will continue unabated. However the science, empirical evidence and observations will always trump emotional, agenda driven politics visible from eco-facist NGO’s and socialist Governments alike who practice Anthropogenic Global Alarmism.
For more peer-review and empirical data on current Antarctic & Arctic ice conditions, contradicting alarmist fear-mongering of ‘imminent’ polar doom, see “Scientist Predicts Disastrous Sea-Level Rise And Ice Sheets To Collapse”